Wilted-Bump — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$470

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

56.1%

Resolved

Trades

10,047

lifetime

Volume

$3.60M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$359

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-11 18:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

64% 50% $-757

Other

35% 100% +$287

Tech

1% — —

Sports

0% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

75 active days in 12wk • peak 115 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	318	$161.8K	68,748	98,807	-30,060	open	—	03-18 18:13
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	150	$139.5K	71,374	72,449	-1,075	open	—	03-02 11:03
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	337	$119.5K	86,155	69,689	+16,466	open	—	08-11 15:35
will uae strike iran by march 31	682	$112.9K	63,691	66,134	-2,443	open	—	03-29 04:56
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	236	$94.8K	58,100	39,893	+18,206	open	—	06-15 03:01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	43	$90.6K	46,273	49,268	-2,995	open	—	05-06 14:01
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	364	$87.9K	59,268	63,776	-4,507	open	—	03-03 22:46
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	321	$87.7K	79,459	27,037	+52,422	open	—	04-28 15:23
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	308	$81.7K	55,394	52,361	+3,033	open	—	04-07 23:11
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	172	$78.1K	44,403	52,884	-8,482	Yes	+$3,059	05-08 18:50
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	118	$77.5K	53,205	57,248	-4,043	open	—	04-15 21:36
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	51	$69.1K	27,223	55,511	-28,288	open	—	06-15 05:38
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	43	$67.7K	35,355	43,708	-8,353	No	$-2,146	05-07 19:49
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	141	$61.8K	30,593	34,271	-3,677	open	—	04-13 15:51
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	96	$54.9K	34,738	24,491	+10,248	open	—	05-30 08:13
will gta 6 cost 100	43	$54.8K	21,005	33,874	-12,869	open	—	02-28 19:56
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	54	$52.3K	26,041	29,517	-3,476	open	—	04-16 19:13
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	50	$50.3K	28,916	28,916	-0	open	—	07-02 13:32
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	43	$45.3K	24,112	31,499	-7,387	open	—	05-09 09:34
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	176	$44.2K	23,935	24,704	-769	open	—	04-13 15:08
trump out as president by march 31	150	$44.1K	20,564	24,544	-3,980	open	—	03-15 08:28
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	89	$43.9K	23,445	23,445	+0	open	—	04-01 04:00
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	59	$42.3K	26,547	17,977	+8,570	open	—	04-29 18:43
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	36	$39.9K	18,736	28,526	-9,790	open	—	03-26 08:01
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	58	$35.7K	17,417	19,508	-2,091	open	—	03-25 11:15
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	161	$34.2K	19,304	17,485	+1,819	open	—	05-15 19:05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	46	$33.8K	33,707	12,893	+20,814	open	—	07-05 11:52
us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	23	$33.0K	32,600	2,500	+30,100	open	—	06-17 20:50
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	86	$32.3K	18,406	18,406	+0	open	—	04-07 23:25
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	78	$31.0K	16,093	15,566	+527	open	—	03-22 07:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 19:00:09	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	SELL	4	29¢	$1	0x214c6d…
08-11 18:45:07	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	SELL	20	29¢	$6	0x0e1bb1…
08-11 18:10:06	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	SELL	200	29¢	$58	0xe925dc…
08-11 18:10:06	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	SELL	970	29¢	$281	0xca8937…
08-11 15:35:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	200	50¢	$100	0x6d97db…
08-11 12:48:58	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	Yes	BUY	700	82¢	$570	0x984059…
08-11 12:32:18	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	SELL	300	25¢	$75	0x928f21…
08-10 14:02:51	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	55¢	$110	0x105920…
08-08 12:19:33	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	SELL	459	10¢	$46	0xd6d5b7…
08-08 11:18:48	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0xa06ec8…
08-08 11:18:36	iran leadership change by august 15	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xd09d2d…
08-08 10:27:04	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	SELL	2,271	10¢	$227	0x531ddf…
08-07 19:10:22	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	4,820	8¢	$386	0x9cba3d…
08-07 19:09:31	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	720	8¢	$58	0x91af7b…
08-07 19:01:49	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	2,500	8¢	$200	0x047afc…
08-07 18:14:31	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	14	8¢	$1	0x5f9c5d…
08-07 18:14:15	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	1,497	8¢	$120	0x0b923d…
08-07 17:47:48	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0xeb5110…
08-07 17:40:28	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0xf55973…
08-07 17:34:25	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	1,188	8¢	$95	0x4d6a76…
08-07 17:33:54	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	200	8¢	$16	0xfbeb2d…
08-07 17:33:54	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	54	8¢	$4	0xefdeb9…
08-07 15:08:31	will gpt 6 be released by august 14 2026	No	BUY	130	85¢	$110	0x079959…
08-07 14:09:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	9,407	58¢	$5,456	0x2d9459…
08-05 08:25:36	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	Yes	BUY	100	32¢	$32	0x276b40…
08-05 07:38:59	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	4	96¢	$3	0x50a7d7…
08-05 07:38:57	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	996	96¢	$961	0xb31a74…
08-05 07:22:09	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	Yes	BUY	100	34¢	$34	0xfd615d…
08-05 06:51:24	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	100	65¢	$65	0x4709f9…
08-04 14:07:21	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	1,500	83¢	$1,245	0x84bca2…
08-04 13:24:42	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	400	83¢	$332	0x9e54a8…
08-04 12:05:33	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	1,000	84¢	$840	0x5804f3…
08-04 11:03:48	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	100	67¢	$67	0x8f6b99…
08-04 09:21:56	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x14e102…
08-04 07:26:32	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	BUY	16	95¢	$15	0xb5e72a…
08-04 06:57:36	will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	No	BUY	206	97¢	$200	0xa26884…
08-04 06:57:29	will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	No	BUY	206	97¢	$200	0x3fbf4a…
08-04 06:56:59	will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	No	BUY	206	97¢	$200	0x8a3f1b…
08-04 06:56:48	will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	No	BUY	309	97¢	$300	0xbb54d8…
08-04 06:56:44	will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	No	BUY	309	97¢	$300	0x6b6af6…
08-04 06:56:24	will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	No	BUY	414	97¢	$400	0x32bbc0…
08-04 04:30:47	will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	No	BUY	500	99¢	$496	0xfa2a19…
08-04 03:05:14	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	2,400	98¢	$2,345	0x8bb75d…
08-04 01:20:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	350	58¢	$203	0xe76818…
08-03 20:54:09	will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	No	BUY	250	100¢	$249	0xe144f2…
08-03 20:34:38	us obtains iranian enriched uranium by september 30 145	No	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0xee59e9…
08-03 20:34:11	will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x91bf3a…
08-03 18:16:24	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	BUY	886	96¢	$849	0xe2be09…
08-03 16:12:03	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	BUY	514	96¢	$492	0xdc9916…
08-03 15:02:09	will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	No	SELL	360	100¢	$359	0x0b2b90…
08-03 13:11:18	will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x49deff…
08-03 13:10:45	will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x0e65a4…
08-03 13:10:11	will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x10dd59…
08-03 13:09:30	will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x1ee34d…
08-03 13:08:56	will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xa6e2bf…
08-03 12:50:23	will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xe4e5de…
08-03 12:49:54	will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x219caf…
08-03 12:49:24	will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xd6adc4…
08-03 12:48:53	will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x99d15d…
08-03 12:48:24	will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x89de08…
08-03 12:39:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	126	56¢	$70	0x3de07c…
08-03 12:11:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	32	56¢	$18	0xa60420…
08-03 11:27:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x992cc7…
08-03 11:27:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	439	56¢	$246	0xf7e31a…
08-03 09:48:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	400	57¢	$228	0xb5ef98…
08-03 08:35:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	16	57¢	$9	0x7fc185…
08-03 08:26:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xb065c5…
08-03 07:41:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x334400…
08-03 07:34:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	7	57¢	$4	0x706180…
08-03 07:31:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	57¢	$28	0x1e132b…
08-03 07:17:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	322	57¢	$184	0xbae8ac…
08-03 03:54:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	400	57¢	$228	0x0268ef…
08-02 22:25:05	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	BUY	514	96¢	$492	0x820e89…
08-02 22:19:11	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	SELL	862	98¢	$845	0xaa57be…
08-02 18:39:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2,423	59¢	$1,430	0x1510d7…
08-02 16:26:09	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	BUY	2,000	96¢	$1,916	0x8d8259…
08-02 15:45:54	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	80	89¢	$71	0xe1fb07…
08-02 15:45:12	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	48	89¢	$43	0x7ee8f6…
08-02 15:32:51	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	72	89¢	$64	0x2b7fa8…
08-02 09:41:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	7,269	58¢	$4,216	0x35273c…
08-02 07:10:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	206	58¢	$120	0xc555fe…
08-02 07:09:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0xb6311d…
08-02 07:03:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0x7b5942…
08-02 06:56:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	487	58¢	$282	0x3c1a82…
08-02 02:20:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	5,000	54¢	$2,700	0x8397b2…
08-02 01:44:09	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	1,342	93¢	$1,248	0xb52b24…
08-02 00:50:08	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	200	93¢	$186	0xea3a39…
08-02 00:46:02	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	1,658	93¢	$1,542	0xd54756…
08-01 18:32:45	will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	No	BUY	500	99¢	$496	0x604fdd…
08-01 16:38:56	us obtains iranian enriched uranium by august 31	No	BUY	600	98¢	$589	0x18f3de…
08-01 16:21:47	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	200	96¢	$192	0xbdae8f…
07-31 21:50:57	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	1,890	100¢	$1,886	0xd656bd…
07-31 20:58:24	iran leadership change by august 31	No	BUY	2,100	96¢	$2,008	0xa2712d…
07-31 19:46:20	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	4,000	100¢	$3,988	0xc80a6a…
07-31 19:42:48	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	525	100¢	$524	0x9c6b3d…
07-31 18:52:54	iran leadership change by august 31	No	BUY	1,000	96¢	$962	0x8f81ee…
07-31 18:52:35	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x278c68…
07-31 18:43:30	iran leadership change by august 31	No	BUY	2,729	96¢	$2,625	0xb5c1e9…
07-31 14:42:56	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x35bf84…
07-29 22:03:57	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	1,000	94¢	$942	0xcc9625…