Rectangular-Cartridge — Polymarket

Realized P&L (24h)

—

Unrealized P&L

+$58.9K

Hit rate

—

Resolved (24h)

Trades (24h)

4,201 lifetime

Volume (24h)

$114.7K

$8.62M lifetime

Avg / trade

$2.05K

Open exposure

$604.3K

14 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 11-03 11:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 106 days

Categories

Other

59% 84% +$78,428

Politics

23% 93% +$44,566

Sports

17% 61% +$12,190

Crypto

1% 100% +$1,205

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

53 active days in 12wk • peak 130 trades/day

Open positions (14) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	+281,050	$236,307	97¢	$271.9K	+$35,609	10-29 17:45
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	+256,745	$229,208	96¢	$245.2K	+$15,984	11-03 11:44
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	+24,461	$21,529	86¢	$21.0K	-$577	11-02 19:27
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+23,510	$16,880	82¢	$19.4K	+$2,516	10-18 08:47
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+18,447	$17,669	96¢	$17.7K	-$6	09-04 16:50
lindsay clancy convicted of murder	No	+14,070	$13,023	97¢	$13.7K	+$660	09-05 07:56
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	No	+11,347	$10,553	96¢	$10.8K	+$284	11-02 19:29
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+1,989	$1,790	96¢	$1.9K	+$117	10-06 08:25
Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	+1,764	$1,694	98¢	$1.7K	+$42	09-08 10:18
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	+1,010	$977	96¢	$969	-$8	10-18 08:55
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+50	$26	78¢	$39	+$12	08-15 08:18
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	+0	-$6,514	98¢	$0	+$6,514	07-01 02:02
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	+0	$3,494	92¢	$0	-$3,494	05-24 00:43
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+0	-$1,274	80¢	$0	+$1,274	09-22 14:08

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	258	$580.8K	373,183	277,697	+95,486	No	+$7,355	04-09 14:39
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	167	$496.7K	397,853	141,108	+256,745	open	—	11-03 11:44
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	39	$383.9K	150,000	245,971	-95,971	No	-$112	06-13 16:59
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	17	$356.1K	379,296	0	+379,296	No	+$23,239	03-29 12:01
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	5	$314.3K	167,022	167,022	+0	Yes	+$16,095	03-06 09:06
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	359	$313.5K	166,674	166,674	+0	open	—	07-01 02:02
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	169	$311.8K	162,398	162,397	+0	Yes	+$12,623	06-24 05:46
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	1	$287.4K	289,410	0	+289,410	No	+$2,026	07-22 15:15
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	51	$286.7K	207,541	99,153	+108,388	Yes	-$5,831	08-18 18:28
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	5	$282.2K	290,944	0	+290,944	No	+$8,784	04-25 07:10
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	9	$272.8K	275,848	0	+275,848	No	+$3,010	02-02 19:07
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	263	$236.3K	281,050	0	+281,050	open	—	10-29 17:45
will the iranian regime fall by january 31	39	$167.8K	177,768	0	+177,768	No	+$9,924	01-20 09:39
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	76	$153.1K	81,908	81,908	+0	open	—	10-12 06:53
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$138.4K	141,330	0	+141,330	No	+$2,903	07-04 17:15
maduro out by january 31 2026 318	3	$129.3K	129,566	0	+129,566	Yes	+$259	01-03 10:18
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	3	$121.2K	61,000	61,000	+0	No	+$305	05-25 22:24
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$121.0K	122,842	0	+122,842	No	+$1,866	06-24 17:12
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	265	$112.9K	65,120	65,120	+0	Yes	-$2,195	04-09 14:34
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	33	$111.3K	112,706	7,897	+104,809	Yes	+$6,289	04-21 14:39
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	39	$104.3K	56,866	56,866	+0	open	—	11-02 19:25
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	66	$103.7K	74,564	51,054	+23,510	open	—	10-18 08:47
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	4	$94.9K	88,748	10,102	+78,646	No	+$318	05-25 22:26
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	2	$93.5K	94,230	0	+94,230	No	+$754	06-02 20:19
will switzerland win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	1	$81.9K	85,277	0	+85,277	No	+$3,411	02-09 13:56
us strikes iran by february 18 2026	2	$81.4K	83,636	0	+83,636	No	+$2,249	02-14 20:52
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	201	$76.0K	187,904	187,904	+0	No	+$10,416	06-28 07:42
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	6	$75.5K	77,923	0	+77,923	No	+$2,403	02-13 12:02
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?	34	$73.9K	78,374	0	+78,374	No	+$4,464	08-16 06:21
nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	7	$67.3K	36,059	36,059	+0	No	+$1,198	08-03 16:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-03 11:44:28	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	29,800	96¢	$28,608	0x89d4a0…
11-02 19:29:48	Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	11,347	93¢	$10,553	0xf3bcc8…
11-02 19:27:06	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	24,461	88¢	$21,529	0xb284b2…
11-02 19:25:22	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	56,866	95¢	$54,022	0xb7e640…
10-29 17:45:26	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,777	92¢	$1,635	0x52a461…
10-26 05:53:48	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,123	92¢	$1,033	0xb569c4…
10-25 21:45:17	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	1,469	65¢	$959	0x2df1f3…
10-25 21:45:15	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	18	65¢	$12	0x67bdbe…
10-25 21:45:14	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	76	65¢	$49	0x9f082a…
10-25 21:45:14	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0x930607…
10-25 21:45:08	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	1,990	65¢	$1,300	0x192a5c…
10-25 21:45:08	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	100	65¢	$65	0x05fbd1…
10-23 11:29:12	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	8,000	95¢	$7,600	0x82a424…
10-18 08:55:14	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	1,010	97¢	$977	0xba7905…
10-18 08:52:26	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	150,596	95¢	$143,066	0x6e4df8…
10-18 08:47:41	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	23,510	85¢	$19,984	0x91dcbf…
10-16 18:43:46	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	9	95¢	$8	0x914d68…
10-16 16:49:40	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	77,777	95¢	$73,888	0x8bce5f…
10-16 16:00:28	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0xf3f23a…
10-16 13:38:46	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	3	95¢	$3	0x5c1ad4…
10-16 13:27:30	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0xd052a4…
10-16 13:27:28	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xe67adb…
10-16 12:52:21	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	4	95¢	$4	0x3bc120…
10-16 10:50:13	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xbdddae…
10-16 10:50:13	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x9714bf…
10-16 05:48:19	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	13	95¢	$13	0xc8480d…
10-16 05:23:42	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0x25a225…
10-16 05:12:21	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x8dcfc2…
10-16 05:12:21	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x1a5290…
10-16 01:40:37	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x553c4f…
10-15 21:00:35	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,326	94¢	$1,246	0xb911ec…
10-15 18:06:31	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	412	95¢	$391	0xe36456…
10-15 16:42:43	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,630	94¢	$2,472	0xaf1ca5…
10-15 14:23:32	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	300	95¢	$285	0x5c3b63…
10-15 14:04:10	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	200	95¢	$190	0xfd3fbc…
10-15 13:18:37	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	6	95¢	$6	0x873ea7…
10-15 12:37:43	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	29,184	95¢	$27,725	0x8494b8…
10-15 11:45:16	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	164	94¢	$155	0x473e5c…
10-15 03:31:02	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	94¢	$11	0x9a1de0…
10-15 03:30:59	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0x8d440d…
10-15 02:46:53	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	94¢	$6	0x8881dc…
10-14 23:02:22	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	386	94¢	$363	0x768965…
10-14 21:52:13	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	94¢	$6	0xa4fe20…
10-14 17:10:48	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,001	94¢	$941	0xbb0e7d…
10-14 14:20:32	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	83	94¢	$78	0xc03397…
10-14 12:19:26	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x4db2b7…
10-14 09:47:08	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	94¢	$1,880	0xdf444e…
10-13 19:51:40	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x757eae…
10-13 16:35:21	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	94¢	$7	0xd56141…
10-13 16:18:01	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	180	94¢	$169	0x794a04…
10-13 15:01:05	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	761	94¢	$716	0x420752…
10-13 14:43:11	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,010	94¢	$949	0xc31475…
10-13 00:01:09	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	94¢	$13	0xd0d9b0…
10-12 22:37:26	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0x5da897…
10-12 16:39:44	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,923	94¢	$1,802	0x4c0f6e…
10-12 16:39:42	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	334	94¢	$314	0x7735a1…
10-12 16:39:21	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	248	92¢	$228	0x7a2a69…
10-12 16:39:15	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	251	92¢	$231	0x5c3777…
10-12 10:00:44	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Dalibor Svrcina	Daniil Medvedev	BUY	2,966	95¢	$2,818	0x9f5ab2…
10-12 10:00:44	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Dalibor Svrcina	Daniil Medvedev	BUY	30	95¢	$28	0x4bee78…
10-12 10:00:44	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Dalibor Svrcina	Daniil Medvedev	BUY	3,100	95¢	$2,945	0x289a8d…
10-12 10:00:40	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Dalibor Svrcina	Daniil Medvedev	BUY	29	95¢	$28	0x39f658…
10-12 09:59:29	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Dalibor Svrcina	Daniil Medvedev	BUY	271	95¢	$258	0x830652…
10-12 09:58:43	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Dalibor Svrcina	Daniil Medvedev	BUY	158	95¢	$150	0xccfbf0…
10-12 09:58:43	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Dalibor Svrcina	Daniil Medvedev	BUY	139	95¢	$132	0x419108…
10-12 09:58:41	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Dalibor Svrcina	Daniil Medvedev	BUY	1,579	95¢	$1,500	0x3fdf21…
10-12 09:58:40	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Dalibor Svrcina	Daniil Medvedev	BUY	22	95¢	$21	0x9648b0…
10-12 09:58:38	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Dalibor Svrcina	Daniil Medvedev	BUY	216	95¢	$205	0xfbff44…
10-12 09:58:35	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Dalibor Svrcina	Daniil Medvedev	BUY	423	95¢	$402	0x9651e1…
10-12 09:58:34	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Dalibor Svrcina	Daniil Medvedev	BUY	4,229	95¢	$4,017	0x09de41…
10-12 09:57:55	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Dalibor Svrcina	Daniil Medvedev	BUY	25	95¢	$24	0xb827ef…
10-12 09:47:38	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Dalibor Svrcina	Daniil Medvedev	BUY	9,663	93¢	$8,987	0xab0803…
10-12 06:53:41	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	40,105	97¢	$38,902	0x1cccf1…
10-07 09:48:08	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	41,802	97¢	$40,548	0x209fed…
10-06 08:25:43	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1,989	90¢	$1,790	0x280502…
10-05 15:21:32	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	35,000	94¢	$32,900	0x3e43cc…
10-05 15:20:59	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	3,655	85¢	$3,106	0x840c32…
09-23 15:50:47	Will AfD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?	Yes	SELL	718	44¢	$316	0xcad60c…
09-23 15:49:40	Will AfD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?	Yes	SELL	161	44¢	$71	0x70d9b9…
09-23 14:40:46	Will AfD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?	Yes	SELL	227	44¢	$100	0x9b2ce3…
09-23 11:16:41	Will AfD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?	Yes	SELL	280	44¢	$123	0xc0a3b5…
09-23 07:56:37	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	12,847	93¢	$11,947	0x50648d…
09-22 15:44:42	Will AfD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?	Yes	SELL	9	44¢	$4	0xf28e12…
09-22 15:43:18	Will AfD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?	Yes	SELL	30	44¢	$13	0x0c3feb…
09-22 15:17:10	Will AfD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?	Yes	SELL	11	44¢	$5	0xfc5d1b…
09-22 14:08:19	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	19,138	69¢	$13,205	0xee9439…
09-22 11:54:40	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	857	69¢	$591	0xf253d5…
09-22 11:32:27	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	69¢	$13	0xd80b83…
09-22 11:14:24	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	69¢	$17	0x9eb023…
09-22 10:21:19	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	110	83¢	$91	0x530820…
09-22 09:50:01	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	29	83¢	$24	0x7cc475…
09-22 09:31:40	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	290	83¢	$241	0x197f8a…
09-22 09:27:21	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	810	83¢	$672	0x5fe683…
09-22 08:30:54	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,491	83¢	$2,897	0x767356…
09-22 08:30:54	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x4384b2…
09-22 08:30:18	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,951	92¢	$1,795	0x04195c…
09-22 08:19:31	Will SPD be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?	Yes	BUY	471	96¢	$453	0x292d9f…
09-22 04:35:19	Will AfD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?	Yes	SELL	45	44¢	$20	0x3173fb…
09-20 16:00:30	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	31,434	80¢	$25,147	0xc51fff…
09-20 15:54:33	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	106	80¢	$85	0x2dc697…