Sinful-Parsnip — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$400

Unrealized P&L

+$87

Hit rate

81.2%

Resolved

Trades

1,030

lifetime

Volume

$39.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$38

Open exposure

$2.39K

9 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 10-31 01:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 30 days

Categories

Politics

51% 65% +$581

Other

45% 52% -$53

Sports

4% 58% -$128

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

46 active days in 12wk • peak 44 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	-1,233	-$1,248	98¢	$-1208	+$39	10-30 17:49
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	-700	-$617	96¢	$-673	-$56	10-29 13:54
Macron out by December 31, 2026?	No	+330	$308	97¢	$319	+$11	10-30 11:57
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	-162	-$156	94¢	$-153	+$3	10-09 16:50
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+1,392	-$36	1¢	$18	+$54	10-31 01:53
Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+10	$10	96¢	$10	+$0	10-18 08:51
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+10	$9	88¢	$9	$0	10-21 13:02
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	+5	$4	83¢	$4	+$0	09-27 22:21
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	+0	-$36	72¢	$0	+$36	09-13 18:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	55	$4.9K	3,854	4,160	-306	Yes	+$569	02-28 20:00
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	36	$4.6K	2,529	2,533	-4	No	+$81	03-29 20:05
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	11	$2.4K	1,140	1,300	-160	No	+$7	03-29 20:05
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	15	$2.3K	585	1,818	-1,233	open	—	10-30 17:49
us forcibly removes khamenei from power by march 31	32	$2.0K	1,234	1,274	-40	No	+$51	02-28 19:57
MH370 underwater wreckage found by June 30, 2026?	12	$1.8K	1,862	0	+1,862	No	+$32	06-21 16:58
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	3	$1.8K	923	923	+0	No	-$6	02-28 06:35
Trump out as President by June 30?	4	$1.4K	90	1,305	-1,215	No	-$31	05-11 09:41
will the iranian regime fall by january 31	10	$1.4K	1,361	0	+1,361	No	+$4	01-31 22:06
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	9	$1.2K	1,195	0	+1,195	No	+$29	05-10 15:23
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	12	$1.1K	858	858	-0	Yes	+$217	01-19 10:48
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	11	$1.0K	1,205	1,200	+5	No	+$36	05-16 20:43
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	13	$963	1,000	0	+1,000	No	+$37	06-02 19:10
Trump out as President before 2027?	5	$798	95	795	-700	open	—	10-29 13:54
netanyahu out by march 31 854	11	$685	700	0	+700	No	+$15	03-24 06:23
Macron out by December 31, 2026?	16	$597	479	149	+330	open	—	10-30 11:57
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	11	$573	510	510	+0	open	—	10-17 18:53
gop uses nuclear option to break filibuster by march 31 2026	11	$556	292	282	+10	No	+$1	03-31 09:01
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	2	$532	200	362	-162	open	—	10-09 16:50
GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by December 31, 2026?	12	$500	563	0	+563	open	—	10-12 12:15
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	22	$473	935	585	+350	No	-$99	05-12 08:18
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	17	$408	1,527	1,527	+0	No	+$46	05-16 22:13
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	22	$408	570	570	+0	open	—	09-16 16:31
will javokhir sindarov win the 2026 fide candidates tournament	14	$407	260	260	+0	Yes	+$12	04-05 15:52
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	32	$346	2,850	1,250	+1,600	No	+$36	05-15 08:33
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	16	$324	2,000	4,180	-2,180	No	+$120	06-25 17:54
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	19	$303	2,844	1,504	+1,340	No	-$132	05-16 22:14
will canada win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	9	$300	552	0	+552	No	-$300	02-22 11:55
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	5	$293	240	240	+0	open	—	10-17 18:50
will sweden qualify for the 2026 fifa world cup	11	$292	517	178	+339	Yes	-$130	03-31 20:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 01:53:30	Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	4	1¢	$0	0xaf0379…
10-31 01:33:19	Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x5a7771…
10-31 01:32:49	Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0x558e73…
10-31 00:59:40	Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	3	1¢	$0	0xa151c8…
10-31 00:19:01	Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	4	1¢	$0	0xcc04fa…
10-30 17:49:46	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	SELL	1,734	98¢	$1,697	0xb460af…
10-30 13:33:04	Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	3	1¢	$0	0x3d4f0a…
10-30 12:54:37	Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	2	1¢	$0	0x94d98a…
10-30 12:30:57	Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	4	1¢	$0	0x9c897d…
10-30 11:57:19	Macron out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0xe2db46…
10-30 11:57:15	Macron out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	129	97¢	$125	0x4c755d…
10-30 11:28:15	Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0x9d18d4…
10-30 10:45:00	Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	2	1¢	$0	0xb3d4bb…
10-30 09:44:51	Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0x466d8f…
10-30 08:51:18	Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	2	1¢	$0	0x128130…
10-30 08:31:24	Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	3	1¢	$0	0xb10388…
10-30 07:39:21	Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	2	1¢	$0	0x2e714f…
10-30 05:50:19	Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0xe4237a…
10-30 03:10:45	Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	2	1¢	$0	0xaa9203…
10-30 02:40:43	Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	3	1¢	$0	0x5b8f54…
10-30 01:13:28	Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0xf03a78…
10-30 00:26:30	Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	3	1¢	$0	0x05a754…
10-29 23:44:00	Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	4	1¢	$0	0x1a47fd…
10-29 23:21:57	Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x97053d…
10-29 23:21:19	Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0x7bfdef…
10-29 22:11:46	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	50	30¢	$15	0x07d1ca…
10-29 21:57:57	Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0xfdeb67…
10-29 21:36:54	Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0xb34512…
10-29 19:48:10	Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x6d5311…
10-29 19:47:31	Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0x67d96c…
10-29 19:13:09	Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	4	1¢	$0	0x639c57…
10-29 17:49:52	Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?	No	SELL	14	59¢	$8	0x832d8b…
10-29 17:49:26	Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?	No	SELL	17	59¢	$10	0x77835d…
10-29 17:49:22	Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?	No	SELL	50	59¢	$30	0xf01f92…
10-29 17:49:22	Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?	No	SELL	39	59¢	$23	0x430cc5…
10-29 17:09:25	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	SELL	46	98¢	$45	0x47a863…
10-29 16:53:25	Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xbe91f8…
10-29 16:41:31	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x8cb817…
10-29 16:34:25	Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	3	1¢	$0	0x5c5eec…
10-29 16:26:35	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xdfe664…
10-29 16:00:44	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	SELL	29	98¢	$28	0xb2be65…
10-29 15:36:55	Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0xa54648…
10-29 15:29:29	Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0xf4ca00…
10-29 14:30:41	Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	6	1¢	$0	0x16e9c2…
10-29 13:54:55	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	95	96¢	$91	0x6171ad…
10-29 13:43:47	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	97	30¢	$29	0xbd49ec…
10-29 13:18:50	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xc37f2e…
10-29 13:07:28	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	30¢	$1	0x4e2c27…
10-28 20:17:10	Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?	No	BUY	120	56¢	$67	0xf98170…
10-28 19:12:43	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	26¢	$13	0xf08dc2…
10-28 18:56:47	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	27¢	$14	0xcb7136…
10-28 18:42:43	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	50	27¢	$14	0xa54d54…
10-28 14:07:31	Will the Democrats win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	98¢	$22	0xbd3b44…
10-28 08:21:04	Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2026?	No	BUY	25	69¢	$17	0x342ca6…
10-28 00:09:53	Will the Republicans win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x1b5338…
10-27 13:13:17	Will the Democrats win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0xa671c3…
10-27 06:42:27	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	30	40¢	$12	0x151b15…
10-27 01:24:14	Macron out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	93¢	$47	0x10c124…
10-25 18:16:24	Macron out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x2362cb…
10-25 12:52:11	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	95	95¢	$90	0x68468d…
10-24 06:46:29	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	30	34¢	$10	0x893862…
10-21 18:55:59	Republican House odds hit 12% by October 31?	Yes	SELL	159	5¢	$8	0x904568…
10-21 13:02:44	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0xc14518…
10-21 10:31:17	Republican House odds hit 12% by October 31?	Yes	BUY	159	2¢	$3	0x41b1dd…
10-21 10:15:42	Republican House odds hit 15% by October 31?	Yes	SELL	1,161	2¢	$19	0x5a176d…
10-21 01:24:17	Macron out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x7d482c…
10-20 15:18:36	Will the Republicans win the Virginia Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0x8127ff…
10-18 08:51:21	Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xb01de0…
10-17 18:53:39	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	SELL	5	9¢	$0	0xa2d2d7…
10-17 18:53:12	Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0x7fa4a5…
10-17 18:52:50	Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	5	79¢	$4	0xd052c6…
10-17 18:51:06	Republican House odds hit 15% by October 31?	Yes	SELL	161	2¢	$3	0x427038…
10-17 18:50:35	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	SELL	240	60¢	$144	0xeebc9e…
10-16 06:49:51	Will the Democrats win the Virginia Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	98¢	$21	0xf06bb8…
10-15 08:27:14	Will the Democrats win the Virginia Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0xbfe4f5…
10-15 07:38:35	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	SELL	15	10¢	$2	0x4b1ece…
10-14 13:34:06	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	35	61¢	$21	0x2212a8…
10-14 13:33:57	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x821a6e…
10-14 09:51:19	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	100	62¢	$62	0xf5f284…
10-14 07:59:49	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	100	62¢	$62	0xec8002…
10-14 04:42:07	Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	95	58¢	$55	0xab43d0…
10-13 21:16:28	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	SELL	100	10¢	$10	0xc3d988…
10-13 20:47:07	Macron out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0xb5324a…
10-13 20:47:06	Macron out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0xad0fe5…
10-12 13:19:50	Will the Democrats win the Virginia Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xf648db…
10-12 12:15:35	GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	18	86¢	$15	0xa3f410…
10-12 12:08:57	Republican House odds hit 15% by October 31?	Yes	SELL	150	4¢	$6	0x52e4f3…
10-12 11:01:08	Republican House odds hit 15% by October 31?	Yes	SELL	1,364	4¢	$59	0xb575e7…
10-11 15:57:52	GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x6c316f…
10-11 14:05:13	GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0xfdc7ee…
10-10 16:58:52	Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	100	57¢	$57	0x39fd4a…
10-10 11:12:51	Will the Democrats win the Virginia Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x69b958…
10-09 16:50:40	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	362	95¢	$344	0x67d4f9…
10-09 12:19:37	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xbb05fc…
10-09 10:28:43	Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	300	56¢	$168	0x2a4a4f…
10-09 09:00:04	Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	2,584	2¢	$49	0x90a1e7…
10-08 11:14:02	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xa10eac…
10-08 10:41:08	Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	200	55¢	$110	0xcffe79…
10-07 16:20:29	Macron out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x73e5c2…
10-07 11:57:10	Macron out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	94¢	$37	0x15b914…