Bare-Gaffer — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$585

Unrealized P&L

-$415

Hit rate

94.8%

Resolved

Trades

351

lifetime

Volume

$126.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$361

Open exposure

$785

1 position

First seen

2026-03-15

last 06-30 05:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

63% 100% +$764

Other

29% 0% $-179

Sports

7% — —

Crypto

2% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+9,231	$1,200	8¢	$785	$-415	06-30 05:18

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	8	$12.8K	10,311	10,311	+0	open	—	04-26 11:13
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	6	$10.5K	7,656	7,656	+0	No	+$755	04-28 10:38
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	3	$10.4K	7,565	7,565	+0	open	—	05-23 01:23
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	5	$7.0K	4,355	4,355	+0	open	—	04-22 10:21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	13	$7.0K	11,568	11,568	+0	open	—	04-20 04:26
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 23 2026	4	$5.9K	4,342	4,342	+0	open	—	04-22 04:13
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	4	$4.8K	4,434	4,434	+0	open	—	04-28 01:43
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	4	$4.6K	4,042	4,042	+0	open	—	04-21 08:23
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	3	$4.3K	6,276	2,060	+4,215	open	—	06-20 03:07
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	2	$4.0K	2,632	2,632	+0	No	+$8	05-05 06:39
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	4	$2.9K	6,494	6,494	+0	open	—	06-12 16:43
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	5	$2.7K	2,590	2,590	+0	open	—	04-21 16:24
nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	4	$2.6K	3,571	2,500	+1,071	open	—	06-11 03:35
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 20 2026	3	$2.6K	1,698	1,698	+0	open	—	04-19 03:47
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	2	$2.3K	3,228	3,228	+0	open	—	05-23 01:41
nba nyk sas 2026 06 05	5	$2.2K	3,891	1,429	+2,462	open	—	06-06 02:40
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	7	$2.1K	6,768	6,768	+0	open	—	06-12 16:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$2.0K	1,449	1,449	+0	open	—	05-06 16:10
highest temperature in shanghai on march 17 2026 13c	4	$1.9K	1,113	1,113	+0	open	—	03-17 16:33
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	2	$1.6K	3,274	3,274	+0	open	—	04-21 02:47
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	2	$1.6K	999	999	+0	open	—	04-23 00:21
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	3	$1.5K	10,765	0	+10,765	open	—	05-06 16:12
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	2	$1.4K	5,780	8,831	-3,051	open	—	06-10 17:10
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	2	$1.4K	9,402	0	+9,402	open	—	06-20 14:52
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	1	$1.2K	9,231	0	+9,231	open	—	06-30 05:18
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	4	$1.2K	1,194	1,194	+0	open	—	04-05 02:33
usisrael strike yemen by march 31	3	$1.1K	856	856	+0	open	—	03-31 11:25
world cup goalkeeper to score 20260607161409835	3	$1.1K	12,936	12,936	+0	open	—	06-09 10:07
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	4	$1.1K	1,693	507	+1,186	open	—	03-31 16:48
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	2	$1.0K	633	633	+0	open	—	04-23 13:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 05:18:25	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	Yes	BUY	13,548	1¢	$197	0xc29b9e…
06-30 05:18:01	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9,231	13¢	$1,200	0x71b179…
06-30 00:26:11	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	Yes	BUY	14,009	2¢	$211	0xb32cf3…
06-20 14:52:43	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	3,896	9¢	$340	0x84b712…
06-20 14:20:53	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	5,506	19¢	$1,031	0x4e017f…
06-20 03:07:29	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4,215	35¢	$1,474	0xb93318…
06-20 03:06:49	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,060	71¢	$1,469	0x7cb7aa…
06-19 16:29:59	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,060	65¢	$1,333	0xb00498…
06-12 16:43:33	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	SELL	3,751	21¢	$773	0x954e21…
06-12 16:38:39	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	2,831	10¢	$278	0xfdc71f…
06-12 16:37:54	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	1,917	3¢	$63	0x66f610…
06-12 05:46:51	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	SELL	1,250	21¢	$266	0x030c70…
06-12 05:45:19	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	SELL	3,095	2¢	$47	0xbb5a2e…
06-11 03:35:28	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	Knicks	SELL	576	99¢	$571	0x9a4579…
06-11 03:33:51	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	Spurs	BUY	1,071	18¢	$188	0x541b9c…
06-11 03:33:09	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	Knicks	SELL	1,924	82¢	$1,577	0x9be654…
06-11 02:46:46	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	Knicks	BUY	2,500	12¢	$300	0x13027e…
06-11 02:46:15	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	1,917	17¢	$326	0x0be1ab…
06-11 00:16:00	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	1,387	21¢	$297	0xebec30…
06-10 17:18:42	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	2,447	19¢	$465	0x476543…
06-10 17:10:36	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	SELL	8,831	10¢	$864	0x9d70f0…
06-09 10:07:06	world cup goalkeeper to score 20260607161409835	Yes	SELL	12,936	4¢	$490	0xc2683b…
06-08 23:49:04	world cup goalkeeper to score 20260607161409835	Yes	BUY	5,202	5¢	$260	0x4a357c…
06-08 23:48:40	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	2,200	12¢	$267	0x9eb515…
06-08 23:44:45	world cup goalkeeper to score 20260607161409835	Yes	BUY	7,734	5¢	$387	0x580c1a…
06-08 07:56:45	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	8,000	0¢	$16	0xcf0158…
06-08 06:56:48	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	652	62¢	$401	0x4e02be…
06-08 02:59:25	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	652	46¢	$300	0x3a9fb7…
06-08 02:38:25	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	SELL	1,493	21¢	$315	0x55c851…
06-08 01:10:09	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	733	19¢	$136	0xb13c03…
06-07 13:10:04	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	6,494	23¢	$1,500	0x484be9…
06-07 13:05:45	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	2,933	17¢	$500	0x7c5dce…
06-07 13:04:52	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2,831	17¢	$489	0x4af972…
06-06 02:40:49	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05	Spurs	BUY	1,610	31¢	$499	0xc2e836…
06-06 02:28:55	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05	Spurs	BUY	214	43¢	$92	0x31dc30…
06-06 02:24:22	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05	Spurs	BUY	639	40¢	$255	0x7588da…
06-06 02:22:52	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05	Knicks	SELL	1,429	61¢	$871	0x8bdab6…
06-06 01:48:28	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05	Knicks	BUY	1,429	35¢	$500	0xf838ab…
06-04 01:49:55	nba nyk sas 2026 06 03	Knicks	BUY	2,033	24¢	$488	0x6f5972…
06-04 00:27:48	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	74,500	0¢	$298	0xbc9841…
06-03 14:12:42	Trump out as President by June 30?	Yes	BUY	4,794	1¢	$71	0x7991d8…
06-03 13:52:26	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,167	1¢	$25	0x4e56e0…
06-03 13:20:37	Trump out as President by June 30?	Yes	BUY	6,767	1¢	$97	0x76ac78…
06-03 11:53:26	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24,000	0¢	$96	0x4428bd…
06-03 09:57:19	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24,000	0¢	$96	0x038bf2…
06-03 08:09:21	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24,000	0¢	$96	0x7cbaf6…
06-03 04:57:22	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24,000	0¢	$96	0xfd621a…
06-03 03:46:37	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25,000	0¢	$100	0x32ee98…
06-02 01:02:46	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5,780	10¢	$584	0x997008…
05-31 01:30:30	Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	2,117	47¢	$995	0x95015c…
05-29 01:27:38	Thunder vs. Spurs	Thunder	BUY	1,078	23¢	$248	0xb1b12a…
05-27 03:07:37	Spurs vs. Thunder	Spurs	BUY	4,800	1¢	$48	0xbddcac…
05-27 02:29:03	Spurs vs. Thunder	Spurs	BUY	686	14¢	$96	0x46ff88…
05-27 02:06:06	Spurs vs. Thunder	Spurs	BUY	909	22¢	$200	0xd59440…
05-26 10:40:12	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	4,457	4¢	$200	0xc966e4…
05-26 10:25:47	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	2,497	4¢	$100	0xc7bca4…
05-26 08:56:53	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	7,303	4¢	$300	0xee7bd3…
05-26 01:19:37	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2,569	4¢	$100	0x63ff14…
05-23 01:41:09	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	3,228	39¢	$1,256	0xad856a…
05-23 01:23:35	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	7,565	98¢	$7,396	0xd745df…
05-08 04:57:35	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	BUY	3,316	6¢	$197	0xf40dc5…
05-08 04:27:27	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	BUY	795	5¢	$40	0x177cc7…
05-08 04:17:35	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5,192	5¢	$250	0xa4bcd5…
05-06 16:12:54	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	BUY	3,336	15¢	$500	0xc21813…
05-06 16:11:32	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	BUY	293	15¢	$44	0x8a3811…
05-06 16:10:46	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	BUY	7,135	14¢	$1,000	0xc34a07…
05-06 16:10:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	1,449	72¢	$1,043	0xe1bb6c…
05-06 12:25:00	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	3,704	27¢	$1,000	0x3906c1…
05-06 12:23:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	1,449	69¢	$1,000	0xc515a7…
05-05 08:26:58	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	3,228	31¢	$1,000	0xc76aec…
05-05 06:59:14	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	3,862	52¢	$2,008	0x26dd84…
05-05 06:39:38	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	SELL	2,632	76¢	$2,008	0xa3d5f5…
05-05 03:47:18	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	2,632	76¢	$2,000	0xf188ec…
05-01 02:41:06	James Comey mugshot released by May 5?	Yes	SELL	4,955	6¢	$312	0xb123fc…
04-30 07:44:26	James Comey mugshot released by May 5?	Yes	BUY	4,955	10¢	$491	0xfce2e7…
04-28 10:38:32	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	SELL	4,001	81¢	$3,250	0x151122…
04-28 01:43:22	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	SELL	1,194	100¢	$1,190	0xb15915…
04-27 16:41:56	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	SELL	507	66¢	$335	0x64a6a0…
04-27 12:34:42	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	BUY	1,194	44¢	$525	0xe6f947…
04-26 15:39:40	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	SELL	1,503	68¢	$1,025	0x297228…
04-26 15:32:32	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	2,010	69¢	$1,379	0x07e07a…
04-26 11:13:16	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6,184	87¢	$5,380	0xedd5a6…
04-24 11:50:42	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2,183	46¢	$1,012	0x9a21ee…
04-24 08:24:22	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	SELL	3,241	31¢	$1,012	0xd9b4c7…
04-24 07:47:50	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	3,241	62¢	$2,025	0x3c154d…
04-24 07:47:10	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	SELL	1,645	62¢	$1,024	0x359c31…
04-24 06:27:56	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	20,000	0¢	$20	0x341181…
04-24 06:27:26	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	360	75¢	$270	0x009d43…
04-24 03:34:50	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	5,645	62¢	$3,500	0x96940e…
04-23 13:30:32	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	860	60¢	$516	0x7ec8d7…
04-23 13:30:04	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	No	SELL	633	82¢	$516	0xb1ebbc…
04-23 12:11:58	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	No	BUY	633	79¢	$500	0x2a4880…
04-23 12:07:14	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	64,000	0¢	$64	0xef591f…
04-23 11:54:32	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3,500	48¢	$1,688	0x8de29e…
04-23 00:21:16	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	No	SELL	999	88¢	$876	0x3f0861…
04-22 15:19:32	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	No	BUY	999	74¢	$738	0xc61910…
04-22 10:22:46	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	167	53¢	$89	0x72dfe6…
04-22 10:21:12	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	SELL	4,200	87¢	$3,650	0x1acda6…
04-22 08:20:14	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	100	55¢	$55	0xd799d2…
04-22 04:41:56	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	7,267	52¢	$3,756	0x9135e2…