Surprised-Tic — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.30K

Unrealized P&L

-$39

Hit rate

63.5%

Resolved

344

Trades

731

lifetime

Volume

$44.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$60

Open exposure

$531

1 position

First seen

2026-01-08

last 06-28 21:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 86 days

Categories

Other

57% 46% +$1,265

Politics

30% 40% -$1,908

Crypto

10% 40% -$321

Sports

2% 38% -$340

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-28).

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No		-600	-$492	88¢	$-531	-$39	06-12 11:29

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	13	$2.1K	6,200	2,337	+3,863	Yes	-$409	03-08 22:53
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 23 2026 964	27	$1.2K	1,069	1,069	+0	No	+$15	03-28 07:12
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	2	$1.1K	560	560	+0	No	+$17	02-28 06:38
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	2	$1.0K	600	600	+0	open	—	06-12 11:29
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	5	$833	1,400	700	+700	Yes	-$553	02-28 00:18
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$754	455	455	+0	No	+$154	04-01 08:17
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	2	$730	400	400	+0	No	+$69	03-31 19:52
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	2	$722	500	500	+0	No	+$272	04-30 12:05
will google have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	2	$706	420	420	+0	No	+$59	02-19 17:06
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	2	$696	367	367	+0	Yes	+$36	06-21 18:10
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$665	366	366	+0	No	+$65	06-01 08:00
iran confirmed not to participate in 2026 fifa world cup by march 31	7	$641	408	408	+0	No	+$62	04-01 00:50
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	4	$627	405	405	+0	No	+$95	03-31 15:34
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	2	$592	392	392	+0	Yes	+$192	06-15 04:17
epl mun cry 2026 03 01 mun	4	$539	407	407	+0	Yes	+$155	03-01 15:58
will israel take military action in lebanon on march 20 2026	2	$533	303	303	+0	Yes	+$72	03-26 17:56
ucl gal1 juv 2026 02 17 gal1	4	$530	406	406	+0	Yes	+$281	02-17 19:33
Flying Tulip FDV above $1B one day after launch?	4	$496	425	425	+0	Yes	+$25	02-24 00:13
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	1	$494	1,300	0	+1,300	Yes	-$494	04-01 08:27
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	1	$492	0	600	-600	open	—	06-12 11:29
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$484	397	397	+0	Yes	-$16	06-12 11:29
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	2	$479	294	294	+0	No	-$21	05-14 17:29
sea laz mil 2026 03 15 mil	5	$470	280	280	+0	No	-$11	03-15 21:40
us anti cartel strikeoperation on foreign soil by february 28 2026	2	$449	236	236	+0	No	+$1	02-27 12:36
lal ala vil 2026 03 13 draw	2	$408	210	210	+0	Yes	+$8	03-13 21:58
nor tro ffk 2026 03 15 tro	4	$404	234	234	+0	Yes	+$64	03-15 20:01
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 22:00 UTC	3	$399	317	314	+3	Down	+$225	02-10 22:16
epl new mun 2026 03 04 new	5	$386	386	386	+0	Yes	+$206	03-04 22:18
Flying Tulip FDV above $2B one day after launch?	3	$385	200	200	+0	No	+$11	02-24 15:36
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	2	$385	200	200	+0	No	+$9	03-08 18:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-28 21:01:08	Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Yes	SELL	213	100¢	$213	0x5c1f28…
06-28 19:18:31	Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Yes	BUY	213	47¢	$100	0x6707e9…
06-28 08:49:19	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0xab801e…
06-28 08:49:13	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	200	10¢	$20	0x5ebd5e…
06-28 08:49:05	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	200	10¢	$21	0x108b13…
06-26 19:44:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-26 19:40 UTC	Down	BUY	87	23¢	$20	0xa84127…
06-25 20:26:28	Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	BUY	362	28¢	$100	0xf05cd1…
06-24 20:59:29	Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	SELL	244	100¢	$244	0x49771a…
06-24 11:31:11	Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	BUY	244	41¢	$100	0xbf051f…
06-23 08:21:46	Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	BUY	118	85¢	$100	0x72903a…
06-21 18:10:05	Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	SELL	367	100¢	$366	0xa53bbf…
06-21 14:30:23	Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	BUY	367	90¢	$330	0xd2eb81…
06-15 05:15:57	Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	BUY	312	16¢	$50	0x9e604d…
06-15 05:15:45	Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	BUY	278	18¢	$50	0xf9258b…
06-15 05:15:36	Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	BUY	179	56¢	$100	0x8f3af5…
06-15 05:15:03	Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	BUY	526	19¢	$100	0x1610bf…
06-15 05:14:19	Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	BUY	149	67¢	$100	0xc420d6…
06-15 05:14:12	Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	BUY	196	51¢	$100	0x138ee1…
06-15 05:13:45	Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	BUY	625	16¢	$100	0x7fb4a1…
06-15 04:17:52	Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	SELL	392	100¢	$392	0xddc7f4…
06-14 17:15:49	Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	BUY	392	51¢	$200	0xd8876c…
06-14 17:15:09	Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	BUY	789	38¢	$300	0x8bb107…
06-14 17:12:36	Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	BUY	769	26¢	$200	0xa9b240…
06-13 22:48:18	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	BUY	435	46¢	$200	0xcfaddb…
06-12 11:29:37	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	600	82¢	$492	0xec8d40…
06-12 11:29:30	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	600	87¢	$522	0xa46aaf…
06-12 11:29:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	397	59¢	$234	0x7e6f94…
06-01 16:59:04	Will Sweden win on 2026-06-01?	Yes	BUY	1,000	20¢	$200	0x78a1a7…
06-01 08:00:11	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	366	100¢	$365	0x251f6f…
05-19 23:42:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	188	8¢	$15	0x1e5809…
05-19 19:19:53	Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19?	Yes	BUY	345	29¢	$100	0x2abe5f…
05-19 18:49:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	755	3¢	$25	0x2548df…
05-19 18:35:58	Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19?	Yes	BUY	526	19¢	$100	0xa98951…
05-19 18:32:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	156	16¢	$25	0x91cecd…
05-19 18:31:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x01e96d…
05-19 18:26:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	119	21¢	$25	0xbcb6a8…
05-19 17:58:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	91	27¢	$25	0xa0165a…
05-19 17:52:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	61	41¢	$25	0xd22aed…
05-19 17:46:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	151	17¢	$25	0x919f8b…
05-19 17:45:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	86	29¢	$25	0xabda7c…
05-19 13:25:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	114	22¢	$25	0x289f90…
05-19 13:21:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	109	23¢	$25	0x5171aa…
05-16 09:43:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	81	31¢	$25	0xb5b6fa…
05-16 09:42:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	89	28¢	$25	0x872ff8…
05-16 09:40:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	SELL	82	99¢	$81	0x963916…
05-16 09:37:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	82	30¢	$25	0xdaa527…
05-16 01:48:03	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0x5613cc…
05-15 14:25:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	96	26¢	$25	0x6b4ce0…
05-15 14:22:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	81	31¢	$25	0x76abd8…
05-15 14:18:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	68	37¢	$25	0x9292ce…
05-15 09:28:59	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	96	79¢	$75	0x9db303…
05-15 05:45:13	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0xf84561…
05-14 21:41:44	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x21924d…
05-14 21:41:00	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	15	31¢	$5	0x411aa7…
05-14 21:36:34	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x03b057…
05-14 21:35:41	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	68	31¢	$21	0xa767c8…
05-14 18:44:41	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0x6d5c93…
05-14 17:35:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	147	17¢	$25	0x2669c7…
05-14 17:31:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	28	88¢	$25	0x1bd1bf…
05-14 17:29:09	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	SELL	294	78¢	$229	0xc5df0d…
05-06 17:51:39	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	Yes	BUY	1,270	23¢	$292	0x9c1c7f…
05-06 17:49:42	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	300	95¢	$285	0x054813…
05-03 20:52:42	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	397	63¢	$250	0x3e9559…
05-03 16:44:36	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03?	Yes	SELL	250	100¢	$250	0xdfe1b9…
05-03 13:06:22	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03?	Yes	BUY	250	40¢	$100	0xc51e47…
05-01 09:10:16	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	600	80¢	$480	0xc332d3…
05-01 09:08:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	366	82¢	$300	0x5b4cf4…
05-01 09:08:20	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	294	85¢	$250	0xb2b554…
04-30 12:05:30	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	SELL	500	99¢	$497	0xc689e7…
04-01 20:55:53	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	139	46¢	$64	0xec304d…
04-01 08:34:09	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	47	46¢	$21	0x5ad99a…
04-01 08:33:13	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xdab835…
04-01 08:32:53	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x0dc033…
04-01 08:32:47	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x7a19bd…
04-01 08:32:33	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x7f95b2…
04-01 08:32:31	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	87	46¢	$40	0xb25716…
04-01 08:32:27	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0xee2813…
04-01 08:31:53	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0xee4378…
04-01 08:31:51	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	45	46¢	$21	0x848b36…
04-01 08:27:35	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	1,300	38¢	$494	0x9ec7b7…
04-01 08:24:55	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	300	47¢	$141	0x6c211b…
04-01 08:24:05	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	BUY	300	81¢	$243	0xfa46c9…
04-01 08:23:31	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	500	45¢	$225	0xa34c0b…
04-01 08:17:55	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	120	99¢	$119	0x32f574…
04-01 08:17:47	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	455	100¢	$454	0x6f4351…
04-01 08:17:37	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	No	SELL	61	96¢	$59	0x7a232c…
04-01 00:50:53	iran confirmed not to participate in 2026 fifa world cup by march 31	No	SELL	98	100¢	$98	0x0f77da…
03-31 22:37:51	iran confirmed not to participate in 2026 fifa world cup by march 31	No	SELL	42	100¢	$42	0x5a73e2…
03-31 22:26:25	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	No	SELL	200	100¢	$199	0x54a834…
03-31 21:43:55	iran confirmed not to participate in 2026 fifa world cup by march 31	No	SELL	44	100¢	$44	0xc791db…
03-31 21:41:19	iran confirmed not to participate in 2026 fifa world cup by march 31	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x2bb02f…
03-31 19:52:19	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	SELL	400	100¢	$400	0x105e38…
03-31 18:53:27	fif nor che 2026 03 31 che	No	SELL	135	100¢	$135	0x08d5d5…
03-31 15:52:43	fif nor che 2026 03 31 nor	Yes	BUY	320	51¢	$163	0xb7a92c…
03-31 15:52:03	fif nor che 2026 03 31 che	No	BUY	135	74¢	$100	0x310d48…
03-31 15:34:25	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	No	SELL	264	100¢	$263	0xff3291…
03-31 11:42:07	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	No	BUY	70	72¢	$50	0x09e376…
03-30 18:58:29	lol navi sk 2026 03 30	Natus Vincere	SELL	51	100¢	$51	0x1b4926…
03-30 16:47:55	lol navi sk 2026 03 30	Natus Vincere	BUY	51	74¢	$37	0x3f765d…
03-30 14:26:13	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 27 2026 182	No	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0xbbb1e6…