Bad-Shakedown — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$112

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

64.3%

Resolved

Trades

24,666

lifetime

Volume

$526.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$21

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-13 12:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Politics

45% 45% +$15

Other

23% 50% +$0

Crypto

19% 36% $-116

Sports

13% 71% $-12

Tech

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 214 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	125	$6.0K	9,917	2,983	+6,934	open	—	03-25 12:52
megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	135	$4.7K	6,735	2,000	+4,735	open	—	04-30 02:42
will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	123	$4.1K	6,085	2,014	+4,071	open	—	03-17 23:23
will uae strike iran by march 31	137	$4.1K	5,745	2,345	+3,400	open	—	03-14 02:45
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	80	$4.1K	4,806	2,918	+1,888	open	—	03-18 01:19
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?	135	$4.0K	6,600	1,500	+5,100	open	—	02-12 09:37
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	71	$3.8K	5,100	1,800	+3,300	open	—	03-13 13:44
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	70	$3.7K	4,200	2,500	+1,700	open	—	01-25 12:39
megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	106	$3.7K	5,976	2,095	+3,881	open	—	04-29 16:11
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	122	$3.7K	5,214	1,841	+3,373	open	—	02-28 07:07
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	78	$3.4K	3,915	2,560	+1,355	open	—	02-28 18:11
will khamenei leave iran by march 31 224 161 138 998	93	$3.4K	4,100	1,900	+2,200	open	—	02-28 19:06
nothing ever happens khamenei	140	$3.4K	5,140	1,850	+3,289	open	—	02-28 19:12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	80	$3.3K	3,417	2,583	+835	open	—	07-15 18:42
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	81	$3.3K	4,400	2,600	+1,800	open	—	03-17 10:47
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?	121	$3.3K	5,157	1,440	+3,717	open	—	02-28 03:50
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	67	$3.1K	2,574	2,434	+141	open	—	07-06 03:04
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	100	$3.1K	3,410	2,890	+520	open	—	01-25 04:06
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	118	$3.1K	4,181	1,819	+2,363	open	—	03-23 05:10
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	40	$3.0K	2,700	1,900	+800	open	—	01-27 10:25
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	96	$2.9K	3,468	2,495	+973	open	—	03-16 09:30
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	96	$2.8K	4,497	2,355	+2,142	open	—	02-28 14:01
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	66	$2.8K	4,500	1,500	+3,000	open	—	05-29 14:23
will aryna sabalenka win the 2026 womens australian open	145	$2.7K	4,669	879	+3,790	open	—	01-31 10:11
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	86	$2.7K	3,424	1,776	+1,647	open	—	03-18 11:12
will crude oil cl hit high 130 by end of march 366 294	79	$2.6K	3,764	1,146	+2,619	open	—	03-15 13:17
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	73	$2.6K	2,750	1,525	+1,225	open	—	01-25 17:06
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	92	$2.4K	3,280	1,579	+1,701	open	—	03-16 00:46
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	74	$2.4K	3,423	1,619	+1,804	open	—	03-17 23:55
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	52	$2.4K	3,097	1,600	+1,497	open	—	03-18 02:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-13 15:29:27	bitcoin up or down august 13 2026 11am et	Up	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0xf7f355…
08-13 15:29:27	bitcoin up or down august 13 2026 11am et	Up	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x8d00c3…
08-13 15:29:27	bitcoin up or down august 13 2026 11am et	Up	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x26e77c…
08-13 15:29:27	bitcoin up or down august 13 2026 11am et	Up	BUY	9	4¢	$0	0x13f6d9…
08-13 15:29:27	bitcoin up or down august 13 2026 11am et	Up	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x0ffd67…
08-13 15:29:27	bitcoin up or down august 13 2026 11am et	Up	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x0ed80e…
08-13 15:26:21	bitcoin up or down august 13 2026 11am et	Up	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0xd858e7…
08-13 15:18:01	btc updown 15m 1786634100	Up	SELL	20	44¢	$9	0xb40886…
08-13 15:16:46	btc updown 15m 1786634100	Up	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0x25428a…
08-13 15:12:00	btc updown 15m 1786633200	Up	SELL	10	34¢	$3	0x57b658…
08-13 15:08:52	btc updown 15m 1786633200	Up	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x888f07…
08-13 14:55:18	bitcoin up or down august 13 2026 10am et	Down	SELL	120	0¢	$0	0x3fb3ea…
08-13 14:41:15	bitcoin up or down august 13 2026 10am et	Down	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x1c811f…
08-13 14:21:19	bitcoin up or down august 13 2026 10am et	Down	BUY	17	25¢	$4	0xaafaa5…
08-13 14:19:37	bitcoin up or down august 13 2026 10am et	Down	BUY	3	25¢	$1	0x4feff2…
08-13 13:54:48	bitcoin up or down august 13 2026 9am et	Down	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0xd9aeb9…
08-13 13:46:12	bitcoin up or down august 13 2026 9am et	Down	SELL	10	37¢	$4	0xb5ae85…
08-13 13:40:57	bitcoin up or down august 13 2026 9am et	Down	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x469f28…
08-13 13:32:30	bitcoin up or down august 13 2026 9am et	Up	SELL	20	33¢	$7	0x2c808b…
08-13 13:31:36	bitcoin up or down august 13 2026 9am et	Up	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x849630…
08-13 13:31:04	bitcoin up or down august 13 2026 9am et	Up	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0xe6a0b4…
08-13 13:30:04	bitcoin up or down august 13 2026 9am et	Up	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x78bd94…
08-13 13:22:28	btc updown 15m 1786626900	Up	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x909b81…
08-13 12:55:43	btc updown 15m 1786625100	Down	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x40e7b4…
08-13 12:34:54	bitcoin up or down august 13 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	45	9¢	$4	0xe60e4b…
08-13 12:34:54	bitcoin up or down august 13 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0xa22dba…
08-13 11:14:42	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by november 30 20260810151158765	No	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0x8193a7…
08-13 10:38:57	bitcoin up or down august 13 2026 6am et	Up	BUY	7	2¢	$0	0x481515…
08-13 10:38:39	bitcoin up or down august 13 2026 6am et	Up	BUY	93	2¢	$2	0xc20f6a…
08-13 10:00:01	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by november 30 20260810151158765	Yes	BUY	55	29¢	$16	0xc4b066…
08-13 09:56:21	bitcoin up or down august 13 2026 5am et	Up	SELL	30	38¢	$11	0x5b0d3f…
08-13 09:38:06	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739 824	Yes	SELL	50	7¢	$4	0xe28341…
08-13 09:38:06	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739 824	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0xe28341…
08-13 09:28:19	bitcoin up or down august 13 2026 5am et	Up	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x4c0547…
08-13 09:28:19	bitcoin up or down august 13 2026 5am et	Up	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0x4446ca…
08-13 09:28:13	bitcoin up or down august 13 2026 5am et	Up	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0x911bfb…
08-13 09:20:49	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by november 30 20260810151158765	Yes	BUY	1	29¢	$0	0x951b88…
08-13 08:04:46	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by november 30 20260810151158765	Yes	BUY	54	29¢	$16	0xa81557…
08-13 07:12:51	bitcoin up or down august 13 2026 3am et	Up	SELL	50	34¢	$17	0x230108…
08-13 07:12:42	bitcoin up or down august 13 2026 3am et	Up	SELL	50	34¢	$17	0xc5cbfe…
08-13 07:07:46	bitcoin up or down august 13 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	33	31¢	$10	0x96d5da…
08-13 07:07:46	bitcoin up or down august 13 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	40	31¢	$12	0x3a8499…
08-13 07:07:45	bitcoin up or down august 13 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0xf40bb1…
08-13 07:07:45	bitcoin up or down august 13 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0x787490…
08-13 05:34:40	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by october 31 20260810151043583	Yes	SELL	70	21¢	$15	0xb8c0f6…
08-13 05:34:40	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by october 31 20260810151043583	No	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0xb8c0f6…
08-13 04:57:39	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by october 31 20260810151043583	Yes	SELL	30	21¢	$6	0xc3e61c…
08-13 03:48:21	bitcoin up or down august 12 2026 11pm et	Up	SELL	30	83¢	$25	0x03949a…
08-13 03:28:25	bitcoin up or down august 12 2026 11pm et	Up	BUY	30	72¢	$22	0x4da5cb…
08-13 02:54:33	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	100	82¢	$82	0x1e3be2…
08-13 00:03:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	100	54¢	$54	0x58260b…
08-12 23:21:16	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by october 31 20260810151043583	Yes	BUY	44	21¢	$9	0x0199f9…
08-12 23:16:09	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by october 31 20260810151043583	Yes	BUY	56	21¢	$12	0x0dd1f4…
08-12 21:30:09	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	53	81¢	$43	0x3c3b79…
08-12 21:07:55	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	SELL	100	85¢	$85	0xda727c…
08-12 20:13:07	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	17	81¢	$14	0x910296…
08-12 19:52:45	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	30	81¢	$24	0xf38145…
08-12 17:01:22	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by november 30 20260810151158765	No	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0x2e3998…
08-12 16:51:10	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	100	97¢	$97	0x00057c…
08-12 16:28:55	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x9944a5…
08-12 16:16:10	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 15 20260810150912478	No	SELL	100	88¢	$88	0x5ccf7a…
08-12 14:54:36	btc updown 15m 1786545900	Up	BUY	50	11¢	$6	0xb968f9…
08-12 14:53:10	bitcoin up or down august 12 2026 10am et	Up	SELL	70	0¢	$0	0x3f07bb…
08-12 14:39:39	bitcoin up or down august 12 2026 10am et	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x775f0c…
08-12 14:39:39	bitcoin up or down august 12 2026 10am et	Up	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0x2d7b70…
08-12 14:39:33	bitcoin up or down august 12 2026 10am et	Up	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0xf45ac8…
08-12 14:39:33	bitcoin up or down august 12 2026 10am et	Up	BUY	17	7¢	$1	0x92ba6e…
08-12 14:39:24	bitcoin up or down august 12 2026 10am et	Up	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0x3573a6…
08-12 14:27:49	bitcoin up or down august 12 2026 10am et	Up	BUY	7	40¢	$3	0xc8656a…
08-12 14:27:49	bitcoin up or down august 12 2026 10am et	Up	BUY	6	40¢	$3	0x893461…
08-12 14:27:49	bitcoin up or down august 12 2026 10am et	Up	BUY	7	40¢	$3	0x62998b…
08-12 14:10:39	btc updown 15m 1786543200	Up	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0xf598dd…
08-12 14:10:39	btc updown 15m 1786543200	Up	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0x90a648…
08-12 14:10:39	btc updown 15m 1786543200	Up	SELL	39	16¢	$6	0x748634…
08-12 14:10:36	btc updown 15m 1786543200	Up	SELL	0	16¢	$0	0x0feaef…
08-12 14:04:13	btc updown 15m 1786543200	Up	BUY	40	9¢	$4	0x3740c9…
08-12 14:02:33	btc updown 15m 1786543200	Up	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x2419d2…
08-12 11:10:25	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by october 31 20260810151043583	Yes	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0x0a3ea1…
08-12 09:24:27	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by october 31 20260810151043583	No	BUY	100	77¢	$77	0xe08ad2…
08-12 02:57:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	44	51¢	$22	0x123c4e…
08-12 02:55:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x0f306c…
08-12 02:43:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	49¢	$49	0x0b011b…
08-12 02:43:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	50	51¢	$25	0x0b011b…
08-12 01:52:33	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0xca9c72…
08-12 00:35:30	bitcoin up or down august 11 2026 8pm et	Down	BUY	16	8¢	$1	0x01c272…
08-12 00:35:04	bitcoin up or down august 11 2026 8pm et	Down	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0xe799fd…
08-12 00:35:04	bitcoin up or down august 11 2026 8pm et	Down	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0xc46293…
08-12 00:35:04	bitcoin up or down august 11 2026 8pm et	Down	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x7f10b5…
08-12 00:35:00	bitcoin up or down august 11 2026 8pm et	Down	BUY	0	8¢	$0	0xfe3a0a…
08-12 00:15:21	bitcoin up or down august 11 2026 8pm et	Up	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0x617c4f…
08-12 00:07:40	bitcoin up or down august 11 2026 8pm et	Up	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x42c69d…
08-11 16:34:06	bitcoin up or down august 11 2026 12pm et	Up	BUY	11	35¢	$4	0x0377a0…
08-11 16:33:46	bitcoin up or down august 11 2026 12pm et	Up	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0xe8f604…
08-11 16:33:46	bitcoin up or down august 11 2026 12pm et	Up	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xb770fc…
08-11 16:33:45	bitcoin up or down august 11 2026 12pm et	Up	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0xac5cb6…
08-11 16:31:10	bitcoin up or down august 11 2026 12pm et	Up	SELL	11	56¢	$6	0xc45b51…
08-11 16:31:10	bitcoin up or down august 11 2026 12pm et	Up	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0x2877d7…
08-11 16:31:09	bitcoin up or down august 11 2026 12pm et	Up	SELL	4	56¢	$2	0xcbd82c…
08-11 16:28:58	bitcoin up or down august 11 2026 12pm et	Up	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0xfcaf90…
08-11 16:25:09	bitcoin up or down august 11 2026 12pm et	Down	SELL	18	46¢	$8	0x30c4cb…