Realized P&L
-$71
Unrealized P&L
+$16
Hit rate
58.2%
Resolved
316
Trades
851
lifetime
Volume
$5.76K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$7
Open exposure
$181
30 positions
First seen
2026-05-06
last 10-26 16:48
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 67 days
Categories
Other
87% 49% -$83
Politics
6% 50% -$15
Sports
4% 70% +$33
Crypto
2% 57% -$7
Tech
1% 100% +$1
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
28 active days in 12wk • peak 71 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +13 $10 92¢ $12 +$2 05-17 09:57
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes +15 $10 68¢ $10 +$0 10-14 13:45
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? Yes +14 $10 69¢ $10 $0 10-16 13:26
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes +21 $5 37¢ $8 +$3 10-16 13:24
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Yes +8 $5 96¢ $7 +$2 10-17 09:44
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes +7 $5 94¢ $7 +$2 10-14 13:44
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Yes +7 $5 88¢ $6 +$1 10-04 01:42
US recession by end of 2026? No +6 $5 92¢ $6 +$1 05-28 18:32
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes +6 $5 94¢ $6 +$1 10-23 16:39
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +13 $5 44¢ $6 +$1 09-25 03:32
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +6 $5 94¢ $6 +$1 10-23 16:34
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No +7 $5 78¢ $6 +$1 10-03 12:52
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? No +6 $5 96¢ $6 +$1 10-17 12:00
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? No +6 $5 88¢ $5 +$0 10-18 16:39
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +6 $5 92¢ $5 +$0 10-17 12:00
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? No +6 $5 86¢ $5 +$0 10-18 16:35
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes +8 $5 66¢ $5 +$0 09-24 20:17
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes +24 $5 22¢ $5 +$0 09-24 10:31
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No +6 $5 84¢ $5 +$0 10-23 16:35
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? No +6 $5 87¢ $5 +$0 10-19 08:46
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? No +6 $5 86¢ $5 +$0 10-18 16:35
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No +6 $5 82¢ $5 +$0 10-23 16:33
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? No +6 $5 78¢ $5 +$0 10-17 09:45
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? No +6 $5 86¢ $5 +$0 10-17 09:44
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes +7 $5 74¢ $5 +$0 09-24 18:01
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +8 $5 66¢ $5 +$0 10-04 16:22
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Yes +6 $5 80¢ $5 $0 10-23 16:42
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes +7 $5 72¢ $5 $0 09-25 03:31
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No +6 $5 82¢ $5 $0 10-23 16:35
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No +6 $5 82¢ $5 $0 10-19 08:44