Worried-Robe — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$665

Unrealized P&L

+$74

Hit rate

79.0%

Resolved (90d)

104

Trades (90d)

985

3,583 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$36.1K

$283.4K lifetime

Avg / trade

$79

Open exposure

$1.21K

15 positions

First seen

2026-02-06

last 11-14 19:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 115 days

Categories

Politics

55% 57% -$631

Other

39% 63% +$1,337

Tech

3% 100% +$181

Crypto

3% 50% -$215

Sports

1% 70% +$183

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

66 active days in 12wk • peak 154 trades/day

Open positions (15) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?	No	+300	$273	96¢	$289	+$16	10-29 17:11
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	+300	$238	88¢	$266	+$28	11-11 02:50
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	No	+200	$131	64¢	$129	-$2	10-23 13:54
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	+100	$73	81¢	$81	+$8	10-22 08:35
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027?	No	+100	$63	74¢	$74	+$10	11-11 14:49
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by April 30, 2027?	No	+100	$59	57¢	$57	-$2	10-28 14:39
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027?	No	+100	$47	50¢	$50	+$2	11-11 11:58
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?	No	+100	$44	47¢	$47	+$3	11-12 00:19
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by July 31, 2027?	No	+100	$41	42¢	$41	+$0	10-29 05:51
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2027?	No	+100	$38	40¢	$40	+$2	10-24 22:33
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by September 30, 2027?	No	+100	$35	37¢	$37	+$2	10-24 22:35
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2027?	No	+100	$33	34¢	$34	+$1	10-23 13:29
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2027?	No	+100	$33	34¢	$34	+$1	11-14 19:05
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?	No	+100	$29	30¢	$30	+$1	11-11 22:09
No one announced as next James Bond?	No	+0	-$3	93¢	$0	+$3	10-05 06:55

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	115	$54.6K	39,593	44,893	-5,300	Yes	+$56	04-07 22:52
cs2 ice faze 2026 04 06	69	$9.5K	4,165	6,974	-2,809	Inner Circle Esports	-$326	04-06 14:30
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	71	$8.2K	4,600	5,966	-1,366	No	-$468	03-29 20:03
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 8 163	23	$7.0K	3,915	3,715	+200	Yes	-$77	03-08 22:20
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	9	$6.8K	7,529	7,529	+0	Yes	-$55	04-13 11:42
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	13	$5.9K	3,500	3,500	+0	No	-$83	04-07 21:03
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	24	$5.5K	7,920	7,470	+450	No	+$336	10-28 03:07
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	11	$5.1K	2,606	2,606	+0	No	+$4	03-30 22:06
us forces enter iran by march 7	20	$5.0K	2,900	2,240	+660	No	+$22	03-07 17:15
chatgpt outage by april 10 942	10	$5.0K	3,105	2,045	+1,060	Yes	+$124	04-07 15:45
cs2 bcg voc 2026 04 06	35	$4.8K	4,117	4,117	+0	BC.Game Esports	+$10	04-06 17:24
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	6	$4.2K	9,000	9,000	+0	No	-$7	04-06 15:18
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	27	$4.2K	3,317	3,617	-300	Yes	+$224	02-28 15:04
cs2 navi prv 2026 03 28	49	$4.0K	3,200	3,187	+13	Natus Vincere	+$148	03-28 19:30
us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	19	$3.5K	2,180	1,400	+780	No	+$8	02-27 00:00
will solv energy incs market cap be greater than 5pt4b at market close on ipo day	22	$3.5K	4,030	3,630	+400	Yes	+$994	02-12 09:14
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	24	$3.5K	2,294	1,936	+359	Yes	-$296	03-31 00:32
will iran strike cyprus in march	75	$3.4K	3,184	3,746	-562	No	+$214	03-02 11:22
russia strike impacts kyiv municipality during week of march 2 2026	80	$3.4K	2,042	2,549	-506	Yes	+$464	03-12 12:48
cs2 vit g2 2026 04 14	33	$3.3K	3,900	3,900	+0	Vitality	+$28	04-14 14:10
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	19	$3.2K	10,823	10,823	+0	Yes	-$223	04-04 23:08
cs2 m8 g2 2026 04 13	42	$3.0K	2,566	2,566	+0	G2	-$143	04-13 13:43
will japans january 2026 unemployment rate be 2pt1	73	$2.8K	121	3,523	-3,402	No	+$905	02-10 11:03
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?	5	$2.7K	1,790	990	+800	No	+$10	08-24 22:44
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	3	$2.6K	1,400	1,400	+0	No	+$0	04-13 12:13
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	2	$2.5K	1,300	1,300	+0	No	+$0	04-08 14:23
will russia strike kyiv on february 27 2026	16	$2.5K	1,371	1,187	+184	No	+$51	02-28 00:12
will russia strike kyiv on february 7 2026	58	$2.5K	1,816	2,005	-189	No	+$648	02-07 07:58
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 360 379	15	$2.5K	1,400	1,400	+0	Yes	+$69	02-10 16:10
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	4	$2.3K	1,200	1,200	+0	No	+$17	03-28 16:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-14 19:05:22	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2027?	No	SELL	100	35¢	$35	0x7ca6ac…
11-12 00:19:48	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	9	47¢	$4	0x01d3d4…
11-11 22:09:37	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	44	31¢	$14	0xb122d0…
11-11 19:11:34	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	21	31¢	$7	0xc05a6f…
11-11 19:11:33	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	22	31¢	$7	0x85d1ee…
11-11 17:20:31	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	14	31¢	$4	0xcc8eba…
11-11 14:49:03	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027?	No	BUY	100	71¢	$71	0xe9f70c…
11-11 11:58:31	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027?	No	SELL	7	48¢	$3	0xf23dea…
11-11 10:52:55	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027?	No	SELL	2	48¢	$1	0xf3099b…
11-11 02:50:10	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x68f219…
10-29 17:11:29	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0x5e0400…
10-29 05:51:53	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by July 31, 2027?	No	BUY	36	41¢	$15	0xa9eea3…
10-28 14:39:58	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by April 30, 2027?	No	BUY	95	59¢	$56	0xe7fdef…
10-28 09:36:40	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by April 30, 2027?	No	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x6a36ee…
10-28 03:07:36	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	250	99¢	$246	0x94b9e5…
10-27 20:04:27	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027?	No	SELL	100	75¢	$75	0x498fd1…
10-27 05:04:32	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	90¢	$19	0x8bbec0…
10-25 17:38:32	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	90¢	$45	0x138a89…
10-25 14:24:02	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xa5d4ed…
10-25 14:24:00	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	90¢	$25	0x13893c…
10-25 12:25:21	Will Marco Rubio attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	8¢	$8	0xd14a87…
10-25 06:42:06	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 25, 2026?	Yes	SELL	90	98¢	$88	0x0497dc…
10-24 22:35:39	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by September 30, 2027?	No	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0x950594…
10-24 22:33:42	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2027?	No	BUY	100	38¢	$38	0xba33d7…
10-24 20:11:38	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027?	No	BUY	19	47¢	$9	0xfe119e…
10-24 09:42:35	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by July 31, 2027?	No	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x42936c…
10-24 03:49:45	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 24, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0x4fa6c5…
10-24 01:13:30	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0x9b5652…
10-24 01:06:09	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0x08af9f…
10-24 01:06:02	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	82¢	$24	0x1c251d…
10-24 01:04:03	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	82¢	$21	0xf1c80a…
10-23 23:56:21	Will Marco Rubio attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0xb70bc5…
10-23 23:54:50	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	43	82¢	$35	0x24b4fc…
10-23 19:06:32	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027?	No	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xe17941…
10-23 19:06:32	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027?	No	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x5369a3…
10-23 16:50:35	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	100	44¢	$44	0x1fc611…
10-23 13:54:21	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	100	62¢	$62	0x6013f8…
10-23 13:29:39	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2027?	No	BUY	59	33¢	$19	0x241043…
10-23 13:19:24	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x0bf042…
10-23 08:21:44	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2027?	No	BUY	28	33¢	$9	0x2f4984…
10-23 08:21:35	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by July 31, 2027?	No	BUY	63	41¢	$26	0x81a1c0…
10-22 21:06:00	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2027?	No	BUY	13	33¢	$4	0x754e1c…
10-22 09:33:27	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2027?	No	BUY	100	31¢	$31	0x0ed651…
10-22 09:32:44	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	100	28¢	$28	0xe1b561…
10-22 08:35:23	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	100	73¢	$73	0x4d715b…
10-22 07:46:15	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027?	No	BUY	100	67¢	$67	0x48bd46…
10-22 01:29:26	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027?	No	BUY	44	47¢	$21	0x10f09e…
10-22 00:18:38	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027?	No	BUY	15	47¢	$7	0xae9e52…
10-21 14:29:57	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	81¢	$81	0xeec0c9…
10-21 11:09:39	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 24, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	86¢	$12	0x1ac051…
10-21 10:52:05	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0x23b590…
10-21 07:38:26	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 24, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0x0cff47…
10-21 04:35:27	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	194	85¢	$165	0x00bd48…
10-21 03:07:12	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	29	85¢	$25	0xcc68c3…
10-21 03:07:12	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 24, 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	86¢	$24	0xc57e1c…
10-21 00:01:32	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	85¢	$8	0xab0a7a…
10-19 02:11:42	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	19	69¢	$13	0xaeb9fe…
10-19 00:05:51	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	210	99¢	$208	0x3105be…
10-19 00:05:27	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	280	99¢	$277	0x1d7ba7…
10-18 23:58:11	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	490	96¢	$470	0x56ecbf…
10-18 18:17:02	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2027?	No	BUY	49	37¢	$18	0x88c441…
10-18 18:03:05	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2027?	No	BUY	51	37¢	$19	0xf70548…
10-18 18:01:33	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	39	69¢	$27	0x5d2784…
10-18 18:00:42	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	41	69¢	$29	0xffe547…
10-18 03:51:21	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	7	51¢	$4	0x7d94e0…
10-17 19:58:48	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x063ff7…
10-17 18:54:38	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027?	No	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xe50a70…
10-17 18:08:38	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xca7fe3…
10-17 17:14:54	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x44c8c2…
10-17 16:32:20	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	100	32¢	$32	0xa7873c…
10-17 15:38:32	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x3734b0…
10-17 13:15:18	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x1465ab…
10-17 12:21:30	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x83d96c…
10-17 10:56:26	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 25, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	87¢	$9	0x5ab1aa…
10-17 10:55:02	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	87¢	$9	0xbd14da…
10-17 10:54:23	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	91¢	$9	0x1746f5…
10-17 10:51:59	will russia target kyiv on october 17 2026	Yes	SELL	423	92¢	$389	0x2a3fc4…
10-17 09:31:51	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	87¢	$6	0x41825b…
10-17 09:31:35	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	91¢	$9	0x8d264f…
10-16 21:43:18	Klitschko out as Kyiv mayor by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	12¢	$12	0x90f534…
10-16 21:41:53	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 18, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	91¢	$1	0x29ce97…
10-16 17:38:02	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	6,417	0¢	$6	0xa56c12…
10-16 17:38:00	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	1,111	0¢	$2	0xc3d8a7…
10-16 17:38:00	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	7,536	0¢	$15	0x97d31c…
10-16 17:38:00	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x7ffe18…
10-16 17:38:00	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x7c5605…
10-16 17:38:00	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	3,583	0¢	$4	0x7824c8…
10-16 17:38:00	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	505	0¢	$1	0x01c76b…
10-16 17:37:59	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$5	0xb582da…
10-16 17:37:59	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	102	1¢	$1	0x09a3a5…
10-16 17:37:57	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	257	1¢	$3	0x57f820…
10-16 15:52:40	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?	No	SELL	63	9¢	$6	0x73b394…
10-16 15:43:00	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?	No	SELL	24	6¢	$2	0x3f393a…
10-16 15:40:18	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	22	1¢	$0	0xc95083…
10-16 15:40:18	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	500	2¢	$9	0xaeb7ab…
10-16 15:35:52	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	93¢	$93	0x2fae28…
10-16 15:35:39	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	90¢	$45	0x826295…
10-16 14:34:43	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?	Yes	SELL	190	91¢	$173	0x5e32b1…
10-16 07:09:28	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0x7ce6ff…
10-16 03:53:39	will russia target kyiv on october 17 2026	Yes	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0xf93d5e…