Small-Buck — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5

Unrealized P&L

-$8

Hit rate

63.5%

Resolved

Trades

419

lifetime

Volume

$1.08K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-05-21

last 08-20 06:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 43 days

Categories

Politics

53% 54% -$20

Other

37% 62% +$17

Tech

6% 75% +$1

Crypto

3% 0% $0

Sports

1% 0% -$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (20) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes		+35	$8	0¢	$0	-$8	05-28 10:13

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	17	$49	50	50	+0	No	-$1	05-25 14:33
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	9	$38	62	62	+0	Yes	+$14	05-22 22:19
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	5	$37	53	53	+0	Usyk	+$25	05-23 23:01
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	7	$32	61	61	+0	open	—	07-02 05:38
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	7	$25	15	15	+0	No	+$1	06-13 01:52
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	6	$25	16	16	+0	No	+$2	05-24 17:38
iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	6	$19	13	13	+0	No	$0	06-16 23:55
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?	9	$19	31	26	+5	Yes	-$4	06-09 19:36
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	7	$18	12	12	+0	No	+$1	05-27 12:28
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	12	$18	53	53	+0	No	-$6	06-06 12:49
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	5	$17	14	14	+0	open	—	07-01 14:46
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	5	$17	12	12	+0	No	+$1	06-07 23:21
Fed rate hike in 2026?	6	$17	18	18	+0	Yes	+$3	07-02 05:37
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	7	$16	16	16	+0	open	—	06-13 05:59
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	5	$16	9	9	+0	Yes	+$2	05-28 17:04
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	7	$15	27	20	+7	Yes	-$6	06-18 01:19
anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	4	$15	9	9	+0	open	—	07-02 05:36
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	6	$14	38	25	+14	No	+$1	06-25 17:41
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	5	$13	9	9	+0	Yes	+$1	06-02 23:19
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	3	$13	10	10	+0	open	—	07-01 14:46
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	4	$13	8	8	+0	open	—	07-01 14:46
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	3	$13	7	7	+0	No	+$1	07-01 14:46
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	3	$13	8	8	+0	open	—	07-02 05:37
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	4	$13	15	15	+0	open	—	07-01 14:46
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	3	$12	9	8	+0	open	—	07-01 14:46
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	4	$12	8	8	+0	No	+$1	05-23 15:41
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	4	$12	9	9	+0	open	—	06-05 22:57
Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026?	3	$12	6	6	+0	No	+$0	07-01 14:46
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	3	$12	7	7	+0	Yes	+$0	06-18 14:36
will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	4	$12	8	8	+0	Yes	+$0	06-27 21:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-20 06:41:37	dota2 ngx flc 2026 08 20	Nigma Galaxy	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x5737d3…
07-02 05:47:28	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	17¢	$1	0xc65b05…
07-02 05:43:40	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June?	Yes	SELL	18	2¢	$0	0x830543…
07-02 05:43:08	Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	500	0¢	$0	0x222f90…
07-02 05:42:40	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xd9a9ee…
07-02 05:41:55	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	36	2¢	$1	0x15546b…
07-02 05:41:29	Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x0c941e…
07-02 05:41:05	Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x68df07…
07-02 05:40:49	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x4ecca0…
07-02 05:40:20	Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?	Yes	SELL	9	12¢	$1	0x090618…
07-02 05:40:02	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	23¢	$2	0x6475eb…
07-02 05:39:20	will ink launch a token by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	8	46¢	$4	0x0bd376…
07-02 05:38:56	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	61	39¢	$24	0x491a48…
07-02 05:38:17	Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	83¢	$6	0x7066c9…
07-02 05:37:52	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	54¢	$10	0xb1cb00…
07-02 05:37:26	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	78¢	$7	0x59cb58…
07-02 05:36:59	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x5824f5…
07-02 05:36:34	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	Anthropic	SELL	9	79¢	$7	0x97ca14…
07-02 05:18:40	Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?	Yes	SELL	18	11¢	$2	0xb4dd5e…
07-02 05:18:10	Will annual inflation be 3.6% or less in June?	Yes	SELL	39	4¢	$2	0xeefe80…
07-02 05:17:52	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June?	Yes	SELL	15	32¢	$5	0x395466…
07-02 05:16:16	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	43¢	$5	0x86d8de…
07-01 14:46:55	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xc2767f…
07-01 14:46:53	Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?	No	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0x87706c…
07-01 14:46:52	sports prediction markets taxed as gambling	No	SELL	2	84¢	$1	0x376d91…
07-01 14:46:50	Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches?	No	SELL	2	86¢	$2	0x01e97b…
07-01 14:46:49	Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0xb3d85a…
07-01 14:46:47	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	3	92¢	$3	0x188ff7…
07-01 14:46:43	trump meets with putin by december 31	No	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0x4e396e…
07-01 14:46:41	GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	6	92¢	$6	0x4b3dd2…
07-01 14:46:38	will anthropic ipo by july 31 2026	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x576112…
07-01 14:46:37	will openais valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31 688 311	No	SELL	6	94¢	$6	0x3f8f00…
07-01 14:46:34	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	7	90¢	$7	0x0fbb04…
07-01 14:46:32	Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	90¢	$7	0x23a06d…
07-01 14:46:31	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	8	72¢	$6	0x90ec8b…
07-01 14:46:29	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	8	75¢	$6	0xde958b…
07-01 14:46:28	Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027?	No	SELL	9	62¢	$5	0xf4aaba…
07-01 14:46:25	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	74¢	$7	0xa6bb7b…
07-01 14:46:20	Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	14	63¢	$9	0x0089bd…
07-01 14:46:19	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	15	44¢	$7	0xe56c19…
06-28 02:00:25	Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?	Yes	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xf2ca2b…
06-27 23:02:55	Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xd1b39a…
06-27 22:57:22	Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xe7501a…
06-27 21:33:16	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	SELL	3	82¢	$2	0xb4481c…
06-27 20:46:13	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0xb6199b…
06-25 17:41:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xfbbd62…
06-25 06:10:31	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x2a535e…
06-25 02:54:44	will donald trump publicly insult nicols maduro by june 30 2026	No	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x45d616…
06-24 22:23:38	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xe16b03…
06-24 19:42:37	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	No	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xc38620…
06-24 19:36:59	Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x68796e…
06-24 18:14:16	trump meets with putin by december 31	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xe535a6…
06-24 09:27:50	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June?	Yes	BUY	4	29¢	$1	0x879afe…
06-24 08:40:50	GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x590833…
06-22 14:12:16	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x61fa14…
06-22 12:30:29	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	SELL	5	79¢	$4	0x31ea1c…
06-19 12:38:46	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	36	3¢	$1	0xc1cc35…
06-19 10:18:04	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x6dc15d…
06-18 19:20:53	Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?	Yes	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x26e5ec…
06-18 19:17:31	Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?	Yes	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xc7b420…
06-18 19:14:37	Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?	Yes	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x67e661…
06-18 19:11:14	Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?	Yes	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x745d7a…
06-18 19:08:20	Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?	Yes	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x750be1…
06-18 19:04:34	Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?	Yes	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x7ad4f4…
06-18 14:36:02	Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	SELL	7	93¢	$6	0xddce15…
06-18 12:38:58	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x979342…
06-18 11:45:52	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xf34f43…
06-18 06:29:05	Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x56d235…
06-18 02:49:49	Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?	Yes	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x36cae6…
06-18 02:31:52	Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	BUY	4	89¢	$4	0xe85677…
06-18 01:19:53	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	23¢	$1	0xf801e4…
06-18 01:16:05	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	23¢	$3	0xdf4804…
06-18 00:45:32	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	25¢	$4	0x95e740…
06-17 16:31:41	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	34¢	$1	0x1c9fff…
06-17 16:18:01	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	34¢	$0	0x5594d7…
06-17 11:34:10	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x2a7441…
06-17 00:49:50	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xe2c00b…
06-16 23:55:53	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	3	73¢	$2	0xef20da…
06-16 23:52:55	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0x456b1f…
06-15 14:31:55	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x05124c…
06-15 14:19:13	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xc9c547…
06-15 14:05:54	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	No	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0xab3b0c…
06-15 13:37:48	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	No	SELL	6	93¢	$6	0xa94f68…
06-14 23:19:57	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x7ddd37…
06-14 23:13:03	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x55d6e3…
06-14 23:02:43	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x0931fd…
06-14 21:59:46	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xe786da…
06-14 21:59:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0x3b0cd0…
06-14 21:57:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0x96823c…
06-13 18:26:25	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x26f6ad…
06-13 17:55:45	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	SELL	2	95¢	$1	0x47d895…
06-13 17:52:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	53¢	$0	0x029e61…
06-13 17:52:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0xab75f5…
06-13 17:52:13	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0xbba437…
06-13 17:52:10	will openais valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31 688 311	No	BUY	3	93¢	$3	0x41dbc6…
06-13 17:29:31	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?	No	SELL	4	37¢	$1	0x7e364d…
06-13 17:27:09	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?	No	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0x1508dc…
06-13 17:03:03	Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x3e2f05…
06-13 15:25:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x9e22e4…
06-13 15:09:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	15	22¢	$3	0x6f0f58…