Unfolded-Saffron — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$19.3K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

31.2%

Resolved

Trades

14,098

lifetime

Volume

$4.12M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$292

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-10 12:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

39% 100% +$5

Sports

36% 33% $-8,166

Politics

24% 0% $-11,146

Crypto

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

71 active days in 12wk • peak 174 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	48	$61.0K	42,000	35,000	+7,000	open	—	08-04 18:13
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	132	$50.9K	51,500	21,499	+30,000	open	—	08-10 00:50
will iran strike israel on march 6	21	$50.2K	33,000	18,000	+15,000	open	—	03-11 05:41
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	31	$48.9K	36,076	25,000	+11,076	open	—	08-08 15:56
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	174	$48.6K	39,500	39,500	+0	open	—	03-01 19:11
bad bunny video becomes most viewed sb halftime on youtube in 1st month	38	$47.9K	46,617	1,727	+44,890	open	—	03-07 22:06
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	38	$45.3K	50,000	0	+50,000	open	—	04-18 22:04
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	46	$37.5K	80,000	29,995	+50,005	open	—	06-16 04:04
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	195	$37.4K	39,986	4,993	+34,992	open	—	04-25 22:14
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	112	$36.2K	40,000	0	+40,000	open	—	08-02 05:40
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	3	$33.9K	18,000	18,000	+0	open	—	04-26 03:54
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves	83	$32.8K	30,000	9,000	+21,000	open	—	05-06 22:15
will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	15	$31.0K	31,200	0	+31,200	open	—	07-20 23:12
atp alcaraz zverev 2026 01 30 match total 36pt5	1	$29.8K	30,138	0	+30,138	open	—	01-30 09:00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	7	$29.8K	35,000	4,000	+31,000	open	—	06-17 21:48
will the us officially declare war on iran by march 31 2026	26	$29.7K	15,000	15,000	+0	open	—	03-28 20:06
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	9	$29.6K	30,000	5,000	+25,000	open	—	08-08 14:03
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	4	$29.2K	30,000	0	+30,000	open	—	02-14 08:12
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	32	$27.8K	20,000	20,000	+0	open	—	03-01 01:34
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	30	$26.5K	15,039	12,630	+2,409	open	—	03-31 21:23
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	31	$26.0K	14,152	15,000	-848	open	—	01-16 17:00
will the us collect less than 100b in revenue in 2025	73	$24.9K	26,210	1,574	+24,636	open	—	02-27 20:54
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	59	$24.3K	21,259	4,500	+16,759	open	—	03-10 05:28
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	77	$21.6K	34,000	7,500	+26,500	open	—	08-08 06:56
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	83	$20.2K	19,000	30,000	-11,000	open	—	02-28 07:21
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	11	$20.1K	16,000	12,800	+3,200	open	—	05-23 22:09
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	9	$19.5K	20,000	0	+20,000	open	—	08-04 09:20
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	30	$19.0K	19,880	0	+19,880	open	—	01-07 10:04
mwoh usa slo 2026 02 20	3	$18.8K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	02-21 00:13
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	90	$18.7K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	08-07 21:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 15:28:06	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	15	69¢	$10	0x1c6976…
08-10 13:54:19	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	5,000	79¢	$3,950	0xfba27e…
08-10 13:39:42	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	220	69¢	$152	0xf83954…
08-10 12:57:51	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x6b9f27…
08-10 12:09:01	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	14	86¢	$12	0x115863…
08-10 11:45:55	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	11	86¢	$9	0x4844d4…
08-10 10:23:07	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	SELL	51	98¢	$50	0x5dabb0…
08-10 10:11:40	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	16	86¢	$14	0x9c06b2…
08-10 09:57:34	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0xf786a1…
08-10 09:57:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	0	86¢	$0	0xfa6c70…
08-10 09:57:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	0	86¢	$0	0x5634cb…
08-10 09:57:10	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	0	86¢	$0	0xce55d5…
08-10 09:32:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	4	86¢	$3	0x0864c7…
08-10 09:32:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	296	86¢	$255	0xa8ae8f…
08-10 09:32:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	272	86¢	$234	0xa6dcda…
08-10 09:32:27	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	0	86¢	$0	0xf0ba83…
08-10 09:32:27	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x4ce368…
08-10 09:32:27	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	0	86¢	$0	0x46377d…
08-10 09:32:25	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	17	86¢	$14	0xd44b49…
08-10 09:27:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	550	86¢	$473	0xaa23f6…
08-10 09:12:37	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	14	86¢	$12	0x9c661a…
08-10 09:09:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	0	86¢	$0	0x0391f6…
08-10 09:08:46	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	0	86¢	$0	0xcebaff…
08-10 08:11:52	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	3	86¢	$3	0x6c8d88…
08-10 08:11:45	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	353	86¢	$304	0xa0598a…
08-10 08:11:42	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	353	86¢	$304	0x911232…
08-10 08:11:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$0	0xe8cabc…
08-10 08:11:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	0	86¢	$0	0x3ff437…
08-10 08:11:37	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	17	86¢	$15	0xeabf2f…
08-10 08:11:37	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	0	86¢	$0	0xb7d8fe…
08-10 07:09:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	143	86¢	$123	0x884d52…
08-10 07:01:25	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	11	86¢	$9	0xac8ca0…
08-10 06:59:13	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	66	86¢	$56	0x1d4008…
08-10 06:58:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0xa451ae…
08-10 06:39:42	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	42	86¢	$36	0x4311c9…
08-10 06:15:31	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x63d81b…
08-10 06:04:27	lol hle1 gen 2026 08 10	Hanwha Life Esports	BUY	7,122	39¢	$2,778	0xe7fca9…
08-10 06:00:01	lol hle1 gen 2026 08 10	Hanwha Life Esports	BUY	17	40¢	$7	0xde6fa3…
08-10 06:00:00	lol hle1 gen 2026 08 10	Hanwha Life Esports	BUY	353	40¢	$141	0xf524da…
08-10 05:48:55	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	186	86¢	$160	0x9adc38…
08-10 05:19:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	828	86¢	$712	0x04c71b…
08-10 04:24:16	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	1,224	86¢	$1,052	0x3ce646…
08-10 00:50:13	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	3,000	89¢	$2,670	0xec3c41…
08-09 18:16:36	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x08f94c…
08-09 12:12:10	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	1,347	69¢	$929	0x4165fa…
08-09 10:17:04	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	1,000	87¢	$870	0x3f5b5b…
08-09 04:52:03	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0x6229e1…
08-08 23:19:24	ufc mat10 qui2 2026 08 08	Quillan Salkilld	SELL	2,000	57¢	$1,140	0x689038…
08-08 22:13:21	ufc man15 rmiran 2026 08 08	Manoel Sousa	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0x884781…
08-08 21:59:01	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	33	89¢	$29	0x484578…
08-08 17:09:12	ufc man15 rmiran 2026 08 08	Manoel Sousa	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x46abc3…
08-08 16:42:55	ufc man15 rmiran 2026 08 08	Manoel Sousa	BUY	94	73¢	$69	0xd7ffd1…
08-08 16:30:27	ufc man15 rmiran 2026 08 08	Manoel Sousa	BUY	315	73¢	$230	0xbb497a…
08-08 15:56:57	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	6,000	90¢	$5,400	0xb0fd10…
08-08 15:34:46	ufc man15 rmiran 2026 08 08	Manoel Sousa	BUY	18	73¢	$14	0xf40888…
08-08 14:03:55	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	5,000	83¢	$4,150	0xcfd792…
08-08 12:36:18	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	174	89¢	$155	0xacd424…
08-08 11:39:16	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	BUY	1,253	45¢	$564	0x43404a…
08-08 11:29:45	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xc7c472…
08-08 11:23:12	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	BUY	3	45¢	$1	0xbfc554…
08-08 11:21:01	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x1374a7…
08-08 11:21:00	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x160afe…
08-08 11:20:57	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x353e9e…
08-08 11:20:54	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xda1578…
08-08 11:20:51	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x440acc…
08-08 11:20:49	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xcfc22c…
08-08 11:20:46	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xc28925…
08-08 11:19:00	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	BUY	218	45¢	$98	0xee4a71…
08-08 11:14:58	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x76ad33…
08-08 11:06:22	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x8bac4b…
08-08 10:58:34	ufc man15 rmiran 2026 08 08	Manoel Sousa	BUY	185	73¢	$135	0x6d009f…
08-08 10:54:52	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	4	89¢	$4	0xf495b0…
08-08 10:52:06	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	4	89¢	$4	0x986fc8…
08-08 10:51:54	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xb6c689…
08-08 10:50:52	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0x369d2b…
08-08 10:50:28	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0xa21906…
08-08 10:50:25	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x437ca8…
08-08 10:49:54	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	4	89¢	$4	0x681814…
08-08 10:49:18	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	BUY	200	45¢	$90	0x7cb63b…
08-08 10:48:49	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	3	89¢	$3	0xbba2d3…
08-08 10:46:27	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0xd736d8…
08-08 10:45:48	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	3	89¢	$2	0x772dcc…
08-08 10:43:31	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	4	89¢	$4	0x0c38e5…
08-08 10:43:10	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0xf157fe…
08-08 10:43:00	ufc man15 rmiran 2026 08 08	Manoel Sousa	BUY	22	73¢	$16	0x4ced0c…
08-08 10:41:25	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0x9ea9e9…
08-08 10:36:55	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xdf452a…
08-08 10:36:00	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x32d5bb…
08-08 10:32:36	ufc man15 rmiran 2026 08 08	Manoel Sousa	BUY	132	73¢	$97	0xa76624…
08-08 10:31:52	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x550bc7…
08-08 10:28:54	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xa8bc10…
08-08 10:25:13	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x012288…
08-08 10:23:58	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	58	89¢	$51	0x634029…
08-08 10:23:55	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	19	89¢	$17	0x9108ba…
08-08 10:15:12	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x82a0c9…
08-08 10:12:51	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x6c726e…
08-08 10:06:04	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x371f7e…
08-08 10:00:09	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0x945665…
08-08 09:51:45	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xdb492f…
08-08 09:50:04	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x00b0f8…