First-Stump — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$0

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

66.6%

Resolved

Trades

179

lifetime

Volume

$10.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$59

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-05

last 06-25 07:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

47% 0% $-1

Sports

29% 100% +$0

Politics

24% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

37 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No		+1	$0	60¢	$0	+$0	06-05 17:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	2	$1.3K	668	668	+0	open	—	04-24 16:56
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	3	$1.2K	614	614	+0	open	—	04-25 21:59
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	3	$1.2K	599	599	+0	open	—	04-24 04:12
Will Alberta join the US?	6	$559	293	293	+0	open	—	06-07 11:34
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	11	$514	507	507	+0	open	—	06-03 15:45
Netanyahu out by June 30?	11	$454	421	421	+0	open	—	06-15 14:48
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	6	$454	339	220	+119	open	—	05-31 10:24
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	9	$431	412	411	+1	open	—	06-25 07:22
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	5	$360	188	188	+0	open	—	05-15 14:47
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	5	$320	174	174	+0	open	—	06-24 01:59
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	7	$318	341	340	+1	open	—	06-05 17:44
nba den mem 2026 01 25 points peyton watson 20pt5	3	$286	283	283	+0	open	—	03-09 14:09
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	2	$194	123	123	+0	open	—	06-04 01:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	2	$193	144	144	+0	open	—	06-06 20:19
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	2	$180	92	92	+0	open	—	05-23 19:11
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	2	$180	100	100	+0	open	—	05-24 08:41
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	2	$180	101	101	+0	open	—	06-18 22:52
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	2	$177	95	95	+0	open	—	06-17 01:06
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	5	$176	112	112	+0	open	—	05-26 19:53
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	3	$174	125	125	+0	open	—	06-11 00:10
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	4	$173	91	91	+0	open	—	06-10 13:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	4	$172	122	122	+0	open	—	05-31 01:00
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	4	$166	86	86	+0	open	—	05-21 09:06
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	3	$157	660	660	+0	open	—	04-24 09:31
will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	5	$138	232	232	+0	open	—	06-14 18:55
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	6	$125	1,275	1,275	+0	open	—	04-23 14:23
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	4	$107	452	187	+265	open	—	05-30 05:57
nba den mem 2026 01 25 spread home 12pt5	2	$105	65	65	+0	open	—	03-06 07:08
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	2	$73	38	38	+0	open	—	05-28 18:59
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	3	$66	190	190	+0	open	—	06-12 22:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-25 07:22:26	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	58	35¢	$20	0x7d62a7…
06-25 07:22:26	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	31	35¢	$11	0x0a1a28…
06-25 05:10:58	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	BUY	89	34¢	$30	0x5902af…
06-25 01:49:53	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	No	SELL	122	66¢	$81	0xa7f18e…
06-24 20:59:41	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	No	BUY	122	66¢	$81	0x3a3daf…
06-24 01:59:07	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	87	92¢	$80	0xa0528c…
06-23 20:06:01	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	87	92¢	$80	0xa215fe…
06-23 13:42:32	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	40	18¢	$7	0x545bfe…
06-23 11:31:37	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	40	18¢	$7	0x4971b8…
06-23 09:01:49	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x27bc36…
06-23 09:01:47	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	86	92¢	$79	0xee6463…
06-23 04:24:07	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	87	92¢	$80	0xd1d14d…
06-23 02:42:16	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	27	52¢	$14	0x1e15c5…
06-22 23:08:10	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	27	52¢	$14	0x10283f…
06-21 07:24:20	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	No	SELL	110	73¢	$80	0x979d8b…
06-21 04:40:44	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	No	BUY	111	74¢	$82	0xef3246…
06-20 08:53:55	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	Yes	SELL	90	26¢	$23	0xa93b5f…
06-20 06:58:13	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	Yes	BUY	90	25¢	$22	0x7d2f6b…
06-18 22:52:53	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	101	89¢	$90	0xd53470…
06-18 22:52:04	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	101	89¢	$90	0x4901d0…
06-18 11:54:47	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	60	47¢	$28	0x6824e7…
06-18 09:16:26	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	60	47¢	$28	0x6f74c3…
06-17 18:36:05	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	29	4¢	$1	0xd94ba7…
06-17 18:36:05	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	152	4¢	$6	0x56fa82…
06-17 16:15:07	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	4¢	$1	0xda43af…
06-17 16:15:07	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	71	4¢	$3	0x448609…
06-17 16:15:07	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	95	4¢	$4	0x16cfc0…
06-17 01:06:43	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	95	94¢	$89	0x9c3526…
06-17 01:05:56	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	95	93¢	$88	0x6fafcf…
06-15 14:48:33	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	82	98¢	$81	0xef1ddb…
06-15 13:17:54	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	BUY	82	99¢	$81	0x67a603…
06-15 01:47:18	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	68	24¢	$16	0xbe0747…
06-14 18:55:57	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	171	7¢	$13	0x046d76…
06-14 17:41:22	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	171	8¢	$14	0xd47a49…
06-14 04:49:19	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x415e3a…
06-14 02:47:46	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	29	99¢	$29	0x2f6db9…
06-14 01:44:58	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	BUY	49	99¢	$48	0xcdb945…
06-13 17:47:43	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	SELL	10	91¢	$9	0x86d939…
06-13 17:47:43	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	SELL	51	91¢	$46	0x7a0af8…
06-13 17:46:58	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	BUY	61	91¢	$55	0x01e4d4…
06-12 22:42:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	49	17¢	$8	0x69d384…
06-12 22:42:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	141	17¢	$24	0x5f2ed9…
06-12 21:12:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	190	18¢	$34	0x6ea33f…
06-12 13:15:48	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	45	98¢	$44	0x399212…
06-12 13:15:46	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	51	98¢	$50	0x33460d…
06-12 11:42:49	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	BUY	96	98¢	$94	0x5e52ba…
06-11 00:10:49	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	125	69¢	$86	0x1db2db…
06-11 00:07:28	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	44	70¢	$31	0xc6ff0b…
06-11 00:07:28	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	81	70¢	$57	0x8aacc1…
06-10 18:53:06	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	SELL	30	2¢	$1	0x69ba13…
06-10 18:53:06	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	SELL	164	2¢	$3	0x662079…
06-10 17:44:09	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	194	2¢	$3	0xda5e36…
06-10 13:16:21	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0xb79f0a…
06-10 13:16:21	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	82	95¢	$78	0x935865…
06-10 13:16:21	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	7	95¢	$7	0x0b16ce…
06-10 10:46:40	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	91	95¢	$87	0x9a6417…
06-10 04:46:52	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	164	19¢	$31	0x113bd3…
06-10 02:51:55	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	34	19¢	$6	0xfc631b…
06-10 02:51:55	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	130	19¢	$25	0xfbb6d9…
06-07 16:38:10	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	97	4¢	$4	0xae2310…
06-07 14:53:16	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	41	4¢	$2	0xe0c0c1…
06-07 14:53:16	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	29	4¢	$1	0x93aa1e…
06-07 14:53:16	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0x805a91…
06-07 11:34:48	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	101	95¢	$96	0xc2fcf8…
06-07 11:34:01	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	101	95¢	$96	0xf40143…
06-07 01:09:42	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	40	19¢	$8	0x1e0e7d…
06-06 23:36:49	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	40	19¢	$8	0x623bc0…
06-06 20:19:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	144	67¢	$96	0xfd64dc…
06-06 18:36:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	144	67¢	$96	0x4ab278…
06-06 06:51:15	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$1	0xe2fde5…
06-06 05:10:21	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$2	0x0d91d2…
06-06 02:02:13	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	101	95¢	$96	0xde7901…
06-06 00:37:24	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	101	95¢	$96	0x0b0c46…
06-05 17:44:03	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	13	50¢	$6	0x7aeac0…
06-05 17:43:24	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	32	50¢	$16	0x963ca6…
06-05 17:43:24	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	135	50¢	$68	0x0ad549…
06-05 17:42:37	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	181	50¢	$90	0x197ba9…
06-04 01:10:27	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	123	79¢	$97	0x875206…
06-03 23:23:39	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	123	79¢	$97	0x280f4a…
06-03 15:45:21	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	133	31¢	$41	0xf00761…
06-03 15:45:21	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	16	31¢	$5	0x41c19f…
06-03 12:05:51	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	149	30¢	$45	0xae124c…
06-02 19:42:41	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	139	69¢	$96	0x50dba8…
06-02 17:41:50	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	139	69¢	$96	0xc4b784…
06-02 11:23:26	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	82	69¢	$57	0xda724c…
06-02 11:23:26	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	44	69¢	$30	0x060432…
06-02 07:30:50	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	126	69¢	$87	0x8960a6…
05-31 19:40:34	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	91	96¢	$87	0xfb843c…
05-31 17:11:02	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	91	96¢	$87	0x075f41…
05-31 15:57:48	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	160	43¢	$69	0xdded66…
05-31 12:40:22	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	74	43¢	$32	0xdd5fa1…
05-31 12:40:19	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	86	43¢	$37	0xc9abb1…
05-31 10:24:48	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	99	97¢	$96	0x304c85…
05-31 08:11:57	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	99	97¢	$96	0xe4a7e4…
05-31 01:00:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	12	72¢	$9	0x7fa213…
05-31 01:00:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	110	72¢	$79	0x3e30f1…
05-30 23:14:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	101	69¢	$70	0x85ef8c…
05-30 23:14:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	21	69¢	$14	0x26f2f9…
05-30 17:43:10	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	3	31¢	$1	0x81c550…
05-30 17:43:10	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	90	31¢	$28	0x56582f…