Oblong-Dusk — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$455

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

63.9%

Resolved

114

Trades

249

lifetime

Volume

$12.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$50

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-04

last 09-20 18:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 60 days

Categories

Politics

47% 52% -$1

Crypto

34% 43% -$100

Sports

12% 31% -$121

Other

6% 27% -$214

Tech

0% 0% -$19

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Superform FDV above $20M one day after launch?	9	$1.1K	642	642	+0	Yes	+$30	02-10 22:21
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	4	$887	505	505	+0	No	+$6	03-15 23:07
Tria FDV above $100M one day after launch?	5	$688	361	361	+0	Yes	+$26	02-04 07:41
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch?	2	$642	354	354	+0	Yes	+$4	03-17 18:48
us strikes iran by february 10 2026	2	$599	308	308	+0	No	-$1	02-10 01:23
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?	3	$429	385	385	+0	No	-$90	03-09 00:19
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	2	$397	286	286	+0	Yes	-$3	03-04 20:56
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	4	$386	322	322	+0	No	+$24	04-01 04:02
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$381	500	500	+0	Yes	+$210	07-18 00:32
will iran strike uae again in march	2	$372	200	200	+0	Yes	+$0	04-05 17:13
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 15th	4	$367	190	190	+0	No	+$2	03-15 23:07
will iran strike oman again in march	6	$364	200	200	+0	No	+$0	04-04 04:13
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	9	$302	643	643	+0	Yes	+$2	04-07 21:56
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	5	$267	223	223	+0	No	-$113	03-09 20:42
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$244	500	500	+0	No	+$160	07-18 00:32
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	2	$224	134	134	+0	No	+$24	03-15 23:06
will crude oil cl hit low 75 by end of march 644 777 281 682 546 253	5	$205	200	200	+0	No	+$55	03-10 23:27
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026?	2	$199	110	110	+0	Yes	-$1	03-04 23:55
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	3	$197	227	227	+0	Yes	-$3	05-08 18:02
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	4	$196	200	200	+0	Yes	+$2	03-27 00:50
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	5	$194	200	200	+0	No	+$4	03-27 00:49
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	4	$194	200	200	+0	Yes	+$4	03-27 00:48
us forces enter iran by march 7	2	$190	107	107	+0	No	-$10	03-05 08:59
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	1	$189	190	0	+190	No	+$1	03-05 09:01
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?	2	$187	127	127	+0	Yes	-$13	03-04 01:05
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April?	2	$182	100	99	+1	No	+$4	04-05 12:43
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	2	$179	280	280	+0	Yes	+$0	03-11 23:15
will us or israel strike iran on march 7 2026	2	$176	93	93	+0	Yes	+$1	03-04 10:27
LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch?	3	$163	113	113	+0	Yes	+$43	09-10 12:21
will bitcoin reach 75000 in february 858 936	2	$150	224	0	+224	No	-$150	02-09 01:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-20 18:44:13	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	207	5¢	$11	0x5e891f…
09-20 18:43:50	Will New People (NL) win fewer than 35 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	No	SELL	213	5¢	$11	0x5b4a70…
09-18 11:27:21	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	207	19¢	$40	0x22cb62…
09-18 11:26:40	Will New People (NL) win fewer than 35 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	No	BUY	213	14¢	$30	0x1b31be…
09-18 11:25:21	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	67	1¢	$0	0xb3ea8c…
09-14 23:30:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x4dae3c…
09-10 12:22:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	52	48¢	$25	0x9c6751…
09-10 12:21:42	LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	55	97¢	$54	0xf7c767…
09-09 19:38:34	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	64	47¢	$30	0x6e0bc4…
09-09 19:38:03	LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	58	86¢	$50	0x5f1317…
09-09 19:37:42	LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	41	95¢	$39	0xe412c9…
09-08 19:54:07	laptop fdv above 100m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	41	73¢	$30	0xdb0a55…
09-08 19:53:39	laptop fdv above 250m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	113	53¢	$60	0x90a8c8…
08-19 17:26:33	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	67	4¢	$3	0x18ba4a…
08-19 16:05:15	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	214	1¢	$3	0xe27705…
08-02 21:40:48	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	19	54¢	$10	0x1e55cc…
07-18 00:41:52	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0x79fcf6…
07-18 00:41:31	Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xbcb081…
07-18 00:38:55	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x460c9e…
07-18 00:36:34	will bitcoin dip to 60000 in july 20260706151220612 754	Yes	BUY	59	34¢	$20	0xc2a8f6…
07-18 00:33:25	Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	37	41¢	$15	0x48dfd7…
07-18 00:33:18	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	31	41¢	$13	0x67da0e…
07-18 00:32:19	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	500	40¢	$202	0x7cb17c…
07-18 00:32:09	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	500	59¢	$295	0x9dd241…
07-18 00:31:10	Will a player representing England be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	77	1¢	$1	0x427935…
07-06 21:08:13	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	39	58¢	$23	0xaecce5…
07-06 21:08:02	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	8	60¢	$5	0x34f3e8…
07-05 21:53:11	Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	38	4¢	$2	0x6bdd32…
07-05 21:52:38	will neymar score 1 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611145108553	Yes	SELL	80	5¢	$4	0xa4f159…
06-19 03:09:10	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	47	64¢	$30	0x7b14af…
06-17 23:11:04	Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0xa78776…
06-17 23:10:52	Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	BUY	26	76¢	$20	0x9c3cb4…
06-17 23:08:19	Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xefec40…
06-17 23:07:58	Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	18	17¢	$3	0x2e120d…
06-17 23:05:07	Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	2,400	1¢	$14	0x83120e…
06-17 23:04:20	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	400	3¢	$10	0x1b67ae…
06-17 23:03:19	will cristiano ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	SELL	13	21¢	$3	0xc21727…
06-17 23:00:55	Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	22	0¢	$0	0x1e850e…
06-16 02:42:01	will neymar score 1 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611145108553	Yes	BUY	80	25¢	$20	0x402a9f…
06-16 02:41:39	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	80	18¢	$14	0x1ba970…
06-16 02:38:37	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	83	17¢	$14	0x1cf008…
06-16 02:37:55	will neymar score 1 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611145108553	Yes	SELL	19	24¢	$5	0xa95d1e…
06-16 02:37:30	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	83	18¢	$15	0xdc046e…
06-16 01:22:37	Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xef38d3…
06-16 01:21:48	Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x57088e…
06-16 01:21:10	Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x6412ed…
06-16 01:12:30	Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	5,000	0¢	$5	0xafb6df…
06-16 01:11:15	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	2,000	1¢	$16	0x55912e…
06-16 01:10:48	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1,900	1¢	$23	0xe0d626…
06-16 01:07:13	Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0xaf07f4…
06-16 01:03:43	Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0xf8c5f9…
06-16 01:03:30	Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x474206…
06-16 01:01:27	will neymar score 1 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611145108553	Yes	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0xb5dd2d…
06-16 00:59:57	Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0x3aeefb…
06-16 00:55:45	will sweden go unbeaten in the 2026 fifa world cup group stage 20260612152622458	Yes	BUY	27	18¢	$5	0x26b866…
06-16 00:54:21	will scotland go unbeaten in the 2026 fifa world cup group stage 20260612152622455	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x93ffa1…
06-16 00:49:10	will ivory coast go unbeaten in the 2026 fifa world cup group stage 20260612152622441	No	BUY	22	67¢	$15	0x0f31a3…
06-16 00:47:40	will iran go unbeaten in the 2026 fifa world cup group stage 20260612152622421	No	BUY	35	85¢	$30	0xed2e79…
06-16 00:46:10	will japan go unbeaten in the 2026 fifa world cup group stage 20260612152622420	No	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x2bb616…
06-16 00:42:24	will germany go unbeaten in the 2026 fifa world cup group stage 20260612152622448	Yes	BUY	68	74¢	$50	0x821ec2…
06-16 00:36:45	Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x13060c…
06-16 00:30:25	Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0xa30ad6…
06-16 00:29:30	Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	56	7¢	$4	0x343af1…
06-16 00:29:22	Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	29	15¢	$4	0xc0fd0b…
06-16 00:27:01	Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x79cd80…
06-16 00:26:55	Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0xd709ae…
06-16 00:25:16	Will a player representing England be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0xc808b7…
06-16 00:25:09	Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0x7c6e7a…
06-16 00:23:33	will austria reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120772	Yes	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0xeba387…
06-16 00:17:33	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0x8533b4…
06-16 00:17:22	Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	22	5¢	$1	0xaa80a7…
06-16 00:17:04	Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x881d48…
06-03 11:06:28	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	900	0¢	$4	0x839608…
05-28 09:37:06	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$9	0x373762…
05-28 09:36:34	Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	500	4¢	$19	0xacc8ee…
05-28 09:36:27	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	500	5¢	$26	0x29db54…
05-28 09:36:18	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	500	8¢	$42	0x96d9f5…
05-28 09:36:06	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	500	9¢	$47	0x67df9e…
05-28 09:35:59	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	500	10¢	$52	0x8cab5b…
05-28 09:35:50	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	500	11¢	$56	0x65b9da…
05-28 09:35:40	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	500	17¢	$83	0x7eec33…
05-28 09:35:24	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	500	17¢	$85	0xbbff34…
05-28 09:34:07	Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2,400	1¢	$22	0xaea252…
05-28 09:33:32	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,900	1¢	$21	0x4b61e6…
05-28 09:32:33	Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$15	0xe7793a…
05-28 09:31:12	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2,000	1¢	$28	0x3a922f…
05-26 00:18:27	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	400	2¢	$10	0x55d0e9…
05-26 00:17:05	Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	56	50¢	$28	0xd9c6a0…
05-08 18:02:32	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	114	46¢	$52	0x86b082…
04-28 22:36:38	Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	30	24¢	$7	0x7e5335…
04-27 23:58:44	Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	15	32¢	$5	0x53d33a…
04-27 23:58:12	Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	11	28¢	$3	0x316c7e…
04-25 15:28:08	Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	40	54¢	$22	0xae0de3…
04-22 00:56:10	Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	24	56¢	$13	0x297e2c…
04-21 23:25:28	Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	15	56¢	$8	0x4af60a…
04-07 21:56:19	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	343	1¢	$3	0x494c92…
04-07 19:46:41	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	SELL	130	39¢	$51	0xb5ee77…
04-05 23:32:17	Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in April?	Yes	SELL	57	80¢	$46	0x6b3edc…
04-05 23:29:51	Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in April?	Yes	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0xcd7c04…
04-05 23:15:15	Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in April?	Yes	SELL	36	80¢	$29	0xf58ba9…