Queasy-Basis — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$156

Unrealized P&L

-$26

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

479

lifetime

Volume

$174.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$365

Open exposure

$4.68K

1 position

First seen

2026-01-18

last 06-30 09:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

82% 100% +$153

Politics

9% 100% +$3

Tech

9% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

54 active days in 12wk • peak 60 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
New pandemic in 2026?	No		-5,115	$-4,655	92¢	$-4681	$-26	06-20 17:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	56	$31.6K	30,686	15,492	+15,194	open	—	06-25 15:30
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	26	$25.8K	24,074	6,174	+17,900	open	—	06-29 12:10
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	89	$16.7K	9,000	8,697	+303	Yes	+$143	04-26 20:26
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	79	$6.7K	3,287	3,473	-187	open	—	05-15 08:38
Netanyahu out by May 31?	6	$6.0K	3,000	3,000	+0	open	—	05-27 00:22
will the ecb announce no change at the february 2026 meeting	1	$5.0K	5,100	0	+5,100	open	—	01-24 18:39
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$5.0K	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	04-26 19:23
Will Finland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	1	$5.0K	5,000	0	+5,000	Yes	+$10	05-12 19:59
bank of japan decreases interest rates after january 2026 meeting	1	$5.0K	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	01-18 11:09
will openai ipo by july 31 2026	10	$5.0K	1,866	3,208	-1,342	open	—	06-29 13:37
will gta 6 cost 100	3	$5.0K	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	02-11 17:19
trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	3	$5.0K	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	07-01 16:54
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	13	$4.7K	2,430	2,430	+0	open	—	04-08 14:14
New pandemic in 2026?	3	$4.7K	0	5,115	-5,115	open	—	06-20 17:04
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	9	$4.4K	29,901	2,116	+27,785	open	—	06-30 09:13
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?	7	$3.3K	3,600	1,000	+2,600	open	—	06-07 13:20
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	3	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	open	—	06-25 11:46
Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30?	6	$2.7K	2,555	1,127	+1,429	open	—	06-07 13:21
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	57	$2.4K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	04-10 09:55
Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?	2	$2.3K	2,322	0	+2,322	open	—	06-29 15:43
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	23	$2.3K	1,833	2,000	-167	open	—	06-07 20:22
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-09 22:19
Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	3	$2.0K	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	05-14 10:49
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	5	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	04-24 14:34
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	2	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	06-25 10:07
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	5	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-18 13:57
kharg island no longer under iranian control by june 24	2	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	06-20 14:46
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	11	$1.9K	8,104	4,726	+3,378	open	—	06-16 20:07
Will Meta acquire TikTok?	1	$1.8K	1,778	0	+1,778	open	—	06-29 15:42
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	4	$1.4K	1,450	0	+1,450	open	—	06-05 16:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-01 16:54:22	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	792	99¢	$784	0x8db3da…
07-01 16:01:05	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	No	BUY	558	1¢	$5	0x79c055…
07-01 16:00:10	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x00d333…
07-01 15:59:34	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	4,207	99¢	$4,165	0xafd078…
06-30 09:13:13	Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	0¢	$0	0x955501…
06-30 09:06:44	Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	35	0¢	$0	0x2fee2f…
06-29 15:43:52	Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?	No	BUY	1,211	100¢	$1,209	0x969d21…
06-29 15:43:16	Will Elon Musk / X (Twitter) acquire TikTok?	No	BUY	403	100¢	$402	0x127024…
06-29 15:43:07	Will Amazon acquire TikTok?	No	BUY	896	100¢	$894	0x400d1b…
06-29 15:42:58	Will Meta acquire TikTok?	No	BUY	1,778	100¢	$1,775	0x97dcc1…
06-29 15:42:47	Will AppLovin acquire TikTok?	No	BUY	1,211	100¢	$1,208	0x745fc2…
06-29 15:42:37	Will Walmart acquire TikTok?	No	BUY	106	100¢	$106	0xd34cb9…
06-29 15:42:25	Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?	No	BUY	1,111	100¢	$1,109	0xd1d108…
06-29 13:37:11	will openai ipo by july 31 2026	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x77166c…
06-29 12:10:14	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	No	BUY	4,500	100¢	$4,496	0xe9a9a2…
06-29 06:58:22	Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	0¢	$0	0xb982f8…
06-29 02:58:23	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$500	0xa1d206…
06-29 01:18:46	Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	0¢	$0	0xe447c0…
06-28 21:45:43	Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,000	0¢	$2	0x7a0497…
06-28 18:55:37	Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	25,611	0¢	$26	0x8dde14…
06-28 18:54:29	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	No	BUY	1,194	100¢	$1,193	0xe7c231…
06-28 17:41:52	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	No	SELL	500	100¢	$500	0xcafe8a…
06-28 13:20:50	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	No	SELL	627	100¢	$626	0x5936ed…
06-28 13:09:23	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x2f2587…
06-28 08:03:53	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	No	SELL	90	100¢	$90	0xe3baf2…
06-28 08:01:49	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	No	SELL	338	100¢	$337	0xc9b0da…
06-25 20:44:10	will openai ipo by july 31 2026	No	SELL	995	99¢	$985	0x11f541…
06-25 15:30:13	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	994	0¢	$2	0x601dda…
06-25 14:17:19	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	6	0¢	$0	0x49e79c…
06-25 12:58:47	will openai ipo by july 31 2026	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x5e3369…
06-25 11:46:32	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	405	100¢	$404	0x7135be…
06-25 10:50:17	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$2	0x8858ff…
06-25 10:11:47	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$998	0x0efd6a…
06-25 10:10:29	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	No	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,996	0x400b23…
06-25 10:08:56	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	9,768	0¢	$20	0xc7fa3f…
06-25 10:08:02	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	595	100¢	$594	0x323495…
06-25 10:07:25	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	SELL	1,000	100¢	$998	0x98452a…
06-24 11:31:52	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	BUY	1,403	100¢	$1,401	0xe84585…
06-24 10:43:16	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	BUY	597	100¢	$595	0xb4d033…
06-24 09:55:55	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	BUY	1,000	99¢	$993	0x7fc0e1…
06-24 09:54:52	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,996	0xe5ae29…
06-24 09:49:17	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	300	1¢	$4	0xb2b505…
06-24 09:48:55	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$997	0x4ee36c…
06-23 19:46:38	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	BUY	3,000	100¢	$2,994	0x14fa61…
06-22 18:05:17	Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0xa46e41…
06-21 21:12:37	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	SELL	5,000	100¢	$4,985	0x18154e…
06-20 17:04:58	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	2,235	91¢	$2,034	0xb03f1b…
06-20 14:46:44	kharg island no longer under iranian control by june 24	No	SELL	1,000	100¢	$999	0xed2f46…
06-20 13:09:37	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	No	SELL	114	100¢	$114	0xb3ebf5…
06-20 12:41:20	Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,998	0x36d3d7…
06-20 12:40:58	Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	No	BUY	2,290	100¢	$2,285	0xd8472c…
06-20 12:36:46	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	BUY	358	100¢	$357	0x8a0c0b…
06-20 12:26:10	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	No	SELL	1,886	100¢	$1,878	0x79ece2…
06-19 10:26:14	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	BUY	3,000	100¢	$2,991	0xbfb595…
06-17 05:01:17	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	No	SELL	45	99¢	$45	0x31c5a2…
06-17 03:54:55	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	No	SELL	302	100¢	$300	0xb44930…
06-17 02:47:57	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x13e8ce…
06-17 02:19:09	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	No	SELL	1,104	99¢	$1,098	0x2cae0d…
06-17 00:56:14	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xdd43c7…
06-16 23:07:05	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	No	SELL	765	100¢	$761	0x7f80e2…
06-16 20:07:46	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	1,017	1¢	$6	0x089788…
06-16 19:40:59	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	333	1¢	$2	0x37a7e5…
06-16 19:08:47	Fed Rate Hike by June 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	143	99¢	$142	0x85a3db…
06-16 18:29:26	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x26d776…
06-16 17:50:56	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	No	SELL	316	100¢	$314	0x308101…
06-16 15:29:01	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	101	1¢	$1	0xac2f83…
06-16 15:13:02	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	SELL	227	100¢	$226	0x2fd1ce…
06-16 15:10:26	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	SELL	487	100¢	$486	0x55a800…
06-16 14:56:02	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	SELL	251	100¢	$250	0x4d9557…
06-16 14:54:38	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	SELL	429	100¢	$428	0x1a5219…
06-16 14:53:10	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	SELL	329	100¢	$328	0xe6ec2e…
06-16 14:52:34	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	SELL	277	100¢	$276	0xedb06b…
06-16 14:41:11	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	21	1¢	$0	0x382dec…
06-16 14:30:52	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	46	1¢	$0	0x2ce8a3…
06-16 14:29:14	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	974	0¢	$4	0x82f7fd…
06-16 14:27:56	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	400	0¢	$1	0x358750…
06-16 06:00:19	Fed Rate Hike by June 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	143	99¢	$142	0xa0dcbb…
06-15 17:44:43	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	No	BUY	5,000	100¢	$4,975	0x84b263…
06-15 17:44:22	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$199	0x5e6b8b…
06-15 13:54:01	Fed Rate Hike by June 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	29	99¢	$28	0x054d59…
06-15 02:21:27	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	17	91¢	$15	0x90ca76…
06-14 20:22:15	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	2,863	91¢	$2,606	0x575ad7…
06-13 17:03:30	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$995	0xda863a…
06-13 17:03:10	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$995	0x6aa09d…
06-12 07:59:21	kharg island no longer under iranian control by june 24	No	BUY	1,000	97¢	$971	0x3df0a9…
06-10 16:56:16	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x0e2a37…
06-10 16:28:45	will openai ipo by july 31 2026	No	SELL	1,052	98¢	$1,031	0x7ad4b2…
06-09 17:01:13	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	2,000	1¢	$20	0x297854…
06-09 02:56:19	will openai ipo by july 31 2026	No	BUY	1,000	97¢	$970	0xaf5601…
06-08 17:07:52	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	No	BUY	1,689	98¢	$1,654	0x438c73…
06-08 17:06:12	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	2,371	1¢	$26	0x36736e…
06-08 06:09:42	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	SELL	76	99¢	$76	0xc556db…
06-08 06:08:03	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	SELL	111	99¢	$110	0xf218ef…
06-08 06:07:13	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	SELL	112	99¢	$111	0xf0471b…
06-08 06:07:10	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	SELL	118	99¢	$117	0x9557a3…
06-08 06:06:24	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	SELL	107	99¢	$106	0x54e5b2…
06-08 06:05:30	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	SELL	113	99¢	$112	0x12b52f…
06-08 06:05:28	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	SELL	126	99¢	$125	0x3ae4d7…
06-08 06:04:37	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	SELL	111	99¢	$110	0x0fa07a…
06-08 06:03:39	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	SELL	108	99¢	$107	0x654993…