Pale-Disregard — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

67.4%

Resolved

Trades

232

lifetime

Volume

$1.36K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 06-10 19:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

76% — —

Politics

14% 50% +$1

Crypto

8% — —

Sports

2% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

22 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes		-10	$-2	24¢	$-2	$-0	06-10 19:09
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes		-15	$-2	15¢	$-2	$-0	06-10 19:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
rut up or down on february 2 2026	1	$40	40	0	+40	open	—	02-02 21:03
ndx up or down on february 2 2026	1	$40	40	0	+40	open	—	02-02 21:02
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	4	$30	20	20	+0	open	—	03-03 14:30
googl up or down on february 5 2026	4	$28	20	10	+10	open	—	02-05 19:21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$25	15	15	+0	open	—	05-09 08:07
gc up or down on february 4 2026	5	$23	15	15	+0	open	—	02-04 18:33
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on May 15?	2	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	05-15 19:32
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 on May 18?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	05-18 19:16
gc up or down on january 30 2026	1	$19	20	0	+20	open	—	01-30 14:56
bitcoin up or down on february 9	2	$19	10	10	+0	open	—	02-09 16:58
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in May?	1	$19	20	0	+20	Yes	+$1	05-05 16:48
gc up or down on january 26 2026	3	$18	9	9	+0	open	—	01-26 22:47
aapl up or down on january 30 2026	3	$18	10	10	+0	open	—	01-30 20:58
cl up or down on january 28 2026	3	$15	8	8	+0	open	—	01-29 04:59
will trump visit china by march 31	1	$15	16	0	+16	open	—	03-16 21:05
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	2	$13	18	0	+18	open	—	04-20 17:58
nba sas nyk 2026 06 08 spread home 15pt5	2	$13	15	0	+15	open	—	06-08 18:34
spx up or down on february 27 2026	3	$13	7	7	+0	open	—	02-27 20:32
si up or down on january 27 2026	2	$13	7	7	+0	open	—	01-27 20:43
si up or down on january 8 2026	2	$12	7	7	+0	open	—	01-08 21:23
googl up or down on january 27 2026	2	$12	7	7	+0	open	—	01-27 20:52
msft up or down on february 10 2026	1	$12	12	0	+12	open	—	02-10 15:08
cl up or down on february 11 2026	1	$12	12	0	+12	open	—	02-11 13:35
nflx up or down on february 10 2026	1	$11	12	0	+12	open	—	02-10 15:28
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	1	$11	15	0	+15	open	—	02-13 14:10
googl up or down on february 20 2026	2	$11	6	6	+0	open	—	02-20 17:59
bitcoin up or down on february 10	2	$11	12	0	+12	open	—	02-10 12:56
googl up or down on february 10 2026	1	$11	12	0	+12	open	—	02-10 15:21
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	1	$11	15	0	+15	open	—	03-20 14:12
nvda up or down on january 7 2026	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	01-07 20:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-10 19:09:30	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10	23¢	$2	0xa026d5…
06-10 19:09:03	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	15¢	$2	0x38aced…
06-08 18:34:51	nba sas nyk 2026 06 08 spread home 15pt5	Spurs	BUY	8	86¢	$7	0xc58626…
06-08 17:35:57	nba sas nyk 2026 06 08 spread home 15pt5	Spurs	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0x6d62cd…
06-05 20:58:01	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05 spread away 10pt5	Spurs	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xa2abbc…
05-28 12:47:24	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	SELL	10	13¢	$1	0xbc2903…
05-19 17:12:06	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 19?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x8f10be…
05-18 19:16:26	Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 on May 18?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xe5750e…
05-18 16:46:13	Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xd539e8…
05-15 19:32:13	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on May 15?	Yes	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x6315d4…
05-15 19:27:21	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on May 15?	Yes	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x586c1a…
05-09 08:07:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xdafeba…
05-06 13:43:24	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0xbfda75…
05-05 16:48:36	Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in May?	Yes	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x6a212c…
05-04 15:32:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0xb92832…
05-01 15:53:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x06a9d8…
04-29 17:58:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x550bd9…
04-29 17:47:04	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x5e8250…
04-28 02:40:38	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or below on April 28?	No	BUY	4	60¢	$2	0x28d859…
04-28 02:39:32	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or below on April 28?	No	BUY	1	60¢	$1	0x2dfa6d…
04-24 17:50:38	Will Keiko Fujimori finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$2	0x01a0f2…
04-24 14:13:44	Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	15	7¢	$1	0x42d462…
04-20 21:43:32	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0xde5a91…
04-20 17:58:46	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0x415a28…
04-15 16:13:02	Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	14	30¢	$4	0xd951a4…
04-15 16:11:12	Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x4c4fa9…
04-15 15:57:04	Will Keiko Fujimori finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x4fe67b…
04-15 15:06:44	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	No	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xd5e0e4…
04-13 20:54:59	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x4a0136…
04-13 20:54:33	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xcbce12…
04-13 20:51:07	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	BUY	8	89¢	$7	0x2afc8d…
04-13 13:50:13	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	No	BUY	1	58¢	$1	0xdbc7a4…
04-13 13:35:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	No	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x8c308d…
04-09 21:57:15	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in April?	No	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0xe32cfe…
04-08 17:50:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	15	70¢	$10	0x84a64f…
04-08 17:39:53	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	No	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0xc2992b…
04-01 16:07:27	will annual inflation increase by 3pt4 in march	No	BUY	6	56¢	$3	0x61c876…
04-01 13:23:21	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	Yes	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x988c17…
03-20 19:22:19	atp alcaraz fonseca 2026 03 20 first set total 8pt5	Over	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0xb4924f…
03-20 17:41:11	trump out as president by march 31	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x8bbdc6…
03-20 14:35:45	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x5cd0a1…
03-20 14:35:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x0c09ca…
03-20 14:33:57	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	No	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0xcbcb19…
03-20 14:30:03	will argentinas monthly inflation in march 2026 be between 2pt2 and 2pt4	No	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0xe7136a…
03-20 14:20:21	will emmanuel grgoire win the paris mayor election	Yes	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x9b0e12…
03-20 14:12:13	US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	Yes	BUY	15	71¢	$11	0x9a0f35…
03-16 21:05:19	will trump visit china by march 31	No	BUY	16	93¢	$15	0x54112b…
03-10 13:36:29	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	14	9¢	$1	0x96d4f0…
03-09 02:20:01	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	No	SELL	29	4¢	$1	0x2922da…
03-09 02:15:33	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	No	BUY	29	7¢	$2	0x722dc5…
03-05 13:02:37	US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	Yes	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0xda4cb4…
03-03 14:30:31	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	82¢	$8	0xa335a0…
03-02 21:09:07	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0x224d4f…
03-02 21:01:47	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	75¢	$8	0x8f8ec5…
03-02 14:34:05	spx up or down on march 2 2026	Down	BUY	8	84¢	$7	0x46aeef…
02-28 19:47:57	israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by march 31 117 352	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x50a1e6…
02-28 19:45:45	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	65¢	$7	0xb583f7…
02-27 20:32:41	spx up or down on february 27 2026	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x528515…
02-27 20:30:33	spx up or down on february 27 2026	Down	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xcc0a70…
02-27 20:04:35	US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0xf2ad52…
02-27 16:11:43	will argentinas monthly inflation in february 2026 be less than or equal to 2pt1	No	BUY	0	90¢	$0	0xcfa0d0…
02-27 14:57:19	spx up or down on february 27 2026	Down	BUY	7	91¢	$6	0x5ed85c…
02-26 17:42:58	pltr up or down on february 26 2026	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x418d66…
02-26 17:30:40	pltr up or down on february 26 2026	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x90f1e3…
02-26 17:23:52	will the us add less than 25k jobs in february	No	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xdb78bd…
02-26 15:57:46	will monthly inflation increase by 0pt4 or more in february	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x34ac21…
02-26 15:05:34	nvda up or down on february 26 2026	Down	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0xd6267a…
02-25 17:33:36	spx up or down on february 25 2026	Up	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0x932d1d…
02-24 20:23:20	nvda up or down on february 24 2026	Down	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0x91a0ea…
02-24 20:02:24	googl up or down on february 24 2026	Up	SELL	5	48¢	$2	0xcea661…
02-24 19:59:48	googl up or down on february 24 2026	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xb48832…
02-20 17:59:02	googl up or down on february 20 2026	Up	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xca10ca…
02-20 17:22:40	meta up or down on february 20 2026	Down	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0xfcaced…
02-20 15:12:42	googl up or down on february 20 2026	Up	BUY	6	92¢	$5	0xc8c026…
02-19 18:55:30	spx up or down on february 19 2026	Down	BUY	6	92¢	$6	0x40f3b4…
02-18 19:42:48	us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	Yes	BUY	19	14¢	$3	0x817896…
02-18 19:42:36	us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	Yes	BUY	1	14¢	$0	0x7fbfab…
02-18 19:27:44	ndx up or down on february 18 2026	Up	BUY	6	95¢	$5	0x612882…
02-17 15:46:37	ndx up or down on february 17 2026	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xb62046…
02-17 14:58:31	si up or down on february 17 2026	Down	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xc05fde…
02-13 17:35:39	si up or down on february 13 2026	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x8a4a0d…
02-13 17:33:09	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	14	21¢	$3	0x6f611a…
02-13 16:19:23	btc updown 5m 1770999300	Up	BUY	6	64¢	$4	0x696f81…
02-13 14:10:45	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	BUY	15	74¢	$11	0xb84112…
02-12 15:10:49	bitcoin up or down on february 12	Up	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0xca4dbf…
02-12 14:31:17	spx opens up or down on february 12 2026	Down	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xa0690f…
02-12 13:51:25	spx up or down on february 12 2026	Up	BUY	7	78¢	$5	0x97c28c…
02-12 13:43:19	si up or down on february 12 2026	Down	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xcae908…
02-11 19:50:53	btc updown 15m 1770839100	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xedd878…
02-11 19:20:25	btc updown 15m 1770837300	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x746ad6…
02-11 15:46:59	rut up or down on february 11 2026	Down	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x662727…
02-11 15:31:37	ndx up or down on february 11 2026	Down	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0xd6c16b…
02-11 14:44:19	tsla up or down on february 11 2026	Up	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x1114af…
02-11 13:35:39	cl up or down on february 11 2026	Up	BUY	12	92¢	$12	0x2cce71…
02-11 12:57:49	bitcoin up or down on february 11	Down	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xe73296…
02-10 18:00:49	rut up or down on february 10 2026	Up	BUY	12	74¢	$9	0x809cbb…
02-10 15:28:13	nflx up or down on february 10 2026	Up	BUY	12	95¢	$11	0x30c0d6…
02-10 15:21:19	googl up or down on february 10 2026	Down	BUY	12	90¢	$11	0x2594a2…
02-10 15:08:45	msft up or down on february 10 2026	Up	BUY	12	96¢	$12	0x243bb4…
02-10 12:56:35	bitcoin up or down on february 10	Down	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x7f542c…