Realized P&L
+$52
Unrealized P&L
+$310
Hit rate
59.8%
Resolved
158
Trades
75,891
lifetime
Volume
$1.80M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$24
Open exposure
$867
27 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-11 17:42
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 23 days
Categories
Other
73% 38% $-606
Politics
14% 100% +$461
Sports
10% 78% +$387
Crypto
3% 0% $-191
Tech
1%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 1247 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No -258 $-247 95¢ $-245 +$2 06-10 17:31
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No -200 $-100 60¢ $-121 $-21 06-06 12:34
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? Yes -318 $-156 36¢ $-114 +$41 06-02 20:23
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No -95 $-95 97¢ $-92 +$3 06-03 09:52
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? Yes +300 $70 30¢ $88 +$18 05-31 18:38
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes +151 $57 40¢ $60 +$3 06-06 10:14
Iran Nuke before 2027? No +50 $37 91¢ $45 +$8 06-11 08:17
US recession by end of 2026? Yes +107 $20 18¢ $20 $-1 05-28 09:01
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? No -49 $-14 34¢ $-17 $-3 06-02 21:27
Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend? Dune 3 -124 $-62 10¢ $-13 +$49 05-31 02:32
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes +57 $15 22¢ $12 $-2 06-03 13:05
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? Yes +22 $11 54¢ $12 +$1 06-02 04:18
Iran Nuke before 2027? Yes +100 $-4 $9 +$14 06-11 01:11
Will Trump resign before 2027? Yes -156 $-8 $-7 +$1 06-07 18:31
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Yes -80 $-54 $-3 +$51 06-08 13:36
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? Yes -87 $0 $-3 $-3 06-03 01:35
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? Yes +3 $1 40¢ $1 +$0 06-05 13:34
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? Yes -26 $-2 $-1 +$1 05-29 13:32
Will Microsoft acquire TikTok? Yes -125 $-2 $-1 +$1 05-28 17:37
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026? No +1 $-2 98¢ $1 +$3 05-31 00:10
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes +14 $1 $1 $-0 05-28 16:55
Will Walmart acquire TikTok? Yes -53 $-1 $-0 +$0 05-29 17:49
Will Elon Musk / X (Twitter) acquire TikTok? Yes -53 $-1 $-0 +$1 06-09 16:59
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? No -0 $-54 70¢ $-0 +$54 05-31 18:20
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No +0 $-54 96¢ $0 +$54 06-01 23:05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No +0 $-16 80¢ $0 +$16 06-11 17:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes +0 $-18 20¢ $0 +$18 06-11 17:42