Realized P&L
+$52
Unrealized P&L
+$763
Hit rate
59.8%
Resolved
158
Trades
77,164
lifetime
Volume
$1.85M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$24
Open exposure
$1.42K
25 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-01 15:48
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 23 days
Categories
Other
73% 38% $-606
Politics
14% 100% +$461
Sports
10% 78% +$387
Crypto
3% 0% $-191
Tech
1%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
83 active days in 12wk • peak 1134 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No +298 $78 100¢ $297 +$219 06-27 12:40
Trump out as President before GTA VI? Yes -576 $-288 50¢ $-285 +$3 06-23 02:24
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No -258 $-248 97¢ $-250 $-2 07-01 19:38
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes +406 $181 38¢ $156 $-24 06-27 13:34
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No -199 $-77 62¢ $-122 $-45 07-01 20:20
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? Yes -318 $-156 24¢ $-76 +$80 06-02 20:23
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? Yes +300 $70 18¢ $52 $-18 05-31 18:38
Iran Nuke before 2027? No +50 $37 93¢ $46 +$10 06-21 04:26
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? Yes +51 $26 52¢ $26 +$0 06-20 08:55
US recession by end of 2026? Yes +224 $34 12¢ $26 $-9 06-18 14:51
Iran Nuke before 2027? Yes +300 $9 $20 +$11 06-30 13:29
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? No -49 $-14 34¢ $-17 $-3 06-02 21:27
Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend? Dune 3 -124 $-62 12¢ $-15 +$47 05-31 02:32
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes -286 $-14 $-9 +$5 06-17 15:29
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? Yes +100 $10 $9 $-2 06-22 08:40
Will Trump resign before 2027? Yes -156 $-8 $-4 +$4 06-07 18:31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes -982 $-417 $-3 +$414 06-27 12:50
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Yes -4 $-11 52¢ $-2 +$9 06-26 20:45
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? No +2 $2 92¢ $2 +$0 06-14 22:36
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes -4 $-7 29¢ $-1 +$6 06-26 00:55
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? Yes +3 $1 32¢ $1 $-0 06-05 13:34
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? Yes -26 $-2 $-1 +$1 05-29 13:32
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? No -0 $-54 82¢ $-0 +$54 05-31 18:20
US recession by end of 2026? No +0 $-3 88¢ $0 +$3 06-19 18:06
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? No +0 $-0 48¢ $0 +$1 06-26 20:46