Fuzzy-Deduce — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

70.8%

Resolved

Trades

151

lifetime

Volume

$206

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-16

last 06-28 12:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

47% 50% +$0

Other

37% 83% +$1

Sports

13% — —

Tech

2% — —

Crypto

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

17 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will hannah spencer win the gorton and denton by election	6	$22	43	0	+43	open	—	02-10 15:06
will matt goodwin reform win the gorton and denton by election	4	$17	48	0	+48	open	—	02-04 16:17
nothing ever happens january 581	7	$9	9	9	+0	open	—	01-30 01:27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	3	$5	4	3	+1	open	—	04-01 16:12
Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?	3	$5	7	0	+7	Yes	+$2	03-18 19:12
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	3	$5	3	3	+0	open	—	04-13 09:45
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	2	$4	5	0	+5	open	—	01-30 01:23
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?	2	$3	6	6	+0	No	$-1	03-26 13:31
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	01-22 12:25
Will the Labour Party win control of the most London borough councils?	1	$3	4	0	+4	Yes	+$1	04-16 19:47
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	1	$3	3	0	+3	open	—	01-16 14:40
will javokhir sindarov win the 2026 fide candidates tournament	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	04-13 12:06
internet access restored in iran by friday 263	2	$3	1	1	+0	open	—	01-30 01:19
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	1	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	01-16 14:41
us strikes iran by january 18 2026 991	1	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	01-16 14:40
will the us not strike iran by january 31 2026 314	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	02-01 17:25
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-12 19:31
will louis theroux inside the manosphere be the 2 global netflix movie this week	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-16 13:17
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	02-05 13:38
will trumps greenland tariffs go into effect for germany by feburary 1	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	01-21 22:16
us strike on somalia by january 31 563	2	$2	2	2	+0	open	—	01-30 01:15
will trump talk to vladimir putin in january	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	02-02 14:00
Will the US strike Somalia next?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	02-04 22:59
will trump post make iran great again or miga on truth social this week	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-13 15:04
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-12 14:13
Will Russia enter Dovha Balka by April 30?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-13 12:07
btc updown 5m 1775059500	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-01 16:10
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-12 14:14
us strikes iran by january 25 2026 759 796 449	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	01-24 22:50
will send help or iron lung gross more on their opening weekend	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	02-02 14:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-28 12:30:25	will lebanon recognize israel by december 31	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x346472…
06-28 12:29:11	f1 austrian grand prix h2h albon vs jr 2026 06 28	Jr.	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xae672e…
06-28 12:29:07	f1 austrian grand prix h2h alonso vs stroll 2026 06 28	Alonso	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x957127…
06-28 12:28:47	f1 austrian grand prix red flag 2026 06 28	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x56120e…
06-28 12:27:25	f1 austrian grand prix driver podium russell 2026 06 28	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xf414b5…
06-28 12:27:13	f1 austrian grand prix driver podium antonelli 2026 06 28	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x2531d1…
06-26 11:58:02	Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x16550f…
06-25 12:44:37	Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x491609…
06-23 16:30:59	will openais valuation hit high 900b by december 31 942 235	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x1ba8cc…
06-14 20:02:03	makerfield by election restore britain receives 10 20260609002937160	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x73478b…
06-07 13:04:39	Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x64fc44…
06-07 12:51:54	Who will finish higher: Albon or Jr.?	Albon	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x7b37d4…
06-07 12:51:03	Who will finish higher: Leclerc or Russell?	Leclerc	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x1fdd7a…
06-07 12:50:42	Who will finish higher: Verstappen or Hadjar?	Verstappen	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x98b59a…
06-07 12:50:31	Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xd65102…
06-07 12:49:28	Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xcc9d9d…
05-15 13:25:41	Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x0ca28b…
05-07 14:49:02	Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May?	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xe6bff7…
05-06 12:14:52	Will Reform UK win at least 1600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xe2a1f1…
05-03 09:46:28	Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x581988…
05-03 09:43:28	Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x9514fd…
05-03 09:42:32	Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xabcb8c…
04-30 18:23:48	Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x4d05ed…
04-30 17:52:20	Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x35c4ab…
04-27 10:53:22	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xafe854…
04-21 10:46:18	Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x216a04…
04-16 19:54:04	Will the Conservative Party win at least 300 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x786b96…
04-16 19:53:54	Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x653eb2…
04-16 19:53:48	Will the Labour Party win at least 300 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x1fc479…
04-16 19:48:32	Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0xa68a13…
04-16 19:47:46	Will the Labour Party win control of the most London borough councils?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x812423…
04-13 15:04:13	will trump post make iran great again or miga on truth social this week	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xd66b49…
04-13 12:07:25	Will Russia enter Dovha Balka by April 30?	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xbc11db…
04-13 12:06:35	will javokhir sindarov win the 2026 fide candidates tournament	Yes	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x2b5a02…
04-13 10:35:07	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	Yes	SELL	1	54¢	$1	0xdb1fb3…
04-13 09:54:57	will trump post make iran great again or miga on truth social this week	No	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x8974e7…
04-13 09:52:11	will trump praise allah again by april 15 423	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x6aa59b…
04-13 09:45:55	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xac5eb7…
04-12 19:31:43	will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x07f517…
04-12 11:12:53	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April?	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x3d677e…
04-12 11:09:03	Will Russia enter Dovha Balka by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x5aa1e3…
04-10 12:44:45	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xbe6714…
04-10 12:42:13	Nothing Ever Happens: April	Nothing	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xbbce27…
04-10 12:40:01	Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$2	0xc00152…
04-08 15:53:25	will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x05be5e…
04-08 15:53:07	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x144ee8…
04-08 15:51:13	Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April?	Yes	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x1e1b53…
04-08 15:50:03	Will Iran strike East–West Crude Oil Pipeline by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x4c8a5d…
04-08 15:47:23	will fabiano caruana win the 2026 fide candidates tournament	Yes	SELL	3	2¢	$0	0xe29516…
04-01 16:14:43	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x220117…
04-01 16:12:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x96979a…
04-01 16:10:31	btc updown 5m 1775059500	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x4def97…
04-01 16:09:53	btc updown 5m 1775059500	Up	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xa1d9fa…
04-01 16:07:07	will javokhir sindarov win the 2026 fide candidates tournament	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x1c78e7…
04-01 16:06:59	will hikaru nakamura win the 2026 fide candidates tournament	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x29d9cd…
03-31 10:48:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	3	82¢	$2	0xf08bf9…
03-27 11:28:19	will hikaru nakamura win the 2026 fide candidates tournament	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xb033ba…
03-27 11:28:17	will fabiano caruana win the 2026 fide candidates tournament	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x7c1a51…
03-26 17:29:57	f1 japanese grand prix h2h lindblad vs lawson 2026 03 29	Lindblad	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x3d1cfe…
03-26 17:28:01	f1 japanese grand prix h2h albon vs jr 2026 03 29	Albon	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xe73bd9…
03-26 17:27:27	f1 japanese grand prix h2h colapinto vs gasly 2026 03 29	Gasly	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x80301e…
03-26 17:27:11	f1 japanese grand prix h2h verstappen vs hadjar 2026 03 29	Verstappen	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xe8f507…
03-26 17:27:03	f1 japanese grand prix h2h russell vs antonelli 2026 03 29	Russell	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xb7d108…
03-26 13:55:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x172b4b…
03-26 13:48:05	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xb6353e…
03-26 13:31:51	Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?	Yes	SELL	6	21¢	$1	0x8740ca…
03-18 19:16:01	Will Russia capture Rodynske by April 30?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xafdf6a…
03-18 19:12:55	Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?	Yes	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xed6754…
03-18 19:12:39	Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?	Yes	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x404609…
03-18 19:12:09	Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?	Yes	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x84dd29…
03-18 19:11:59	Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?	Yes	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x820064…
03-18 19:09:11	military action against iran continues through march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x4dcd2e…
03-16 13:17:09	will louis theroux inside the manosphere be the 2 global netflix movie this week	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x640e81…
03-14 17:31:37	f1 chinese grand prix h2h colapinto vs gasly 2026 03 15	Gasly	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xd3fda2…
03-14 17:28:03	f1 chinese grand prix h2h leclerc vs hamilton 2026 03 15	Hamilton	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x4562a6…
03-14 11:48:07	f1 chinese grand prix safety car 2026 03 15	No	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xb322a3…
03-13 13:02:49	will louis theroux inside the manosphere be the 2 global netflix movie this week	Yes	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x4b9eea…
03-13 13:01:41	Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xab4791…
03-12 14:14:01	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x4b5fef…
03-12 14:13:33	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x09ecfe…
03-07 15:42:23	will starmer say mr speaker 20 times during the next prime ministers questions event	Yes	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x066919…
03-07 15:40:37	will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xa18275…
03-07 14:57:27	will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 7 249 562	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x3d5dee…
03-07 14:57:21	will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 7 249 562	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xd51ea8…
03-07 14:53:57	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x71d6dd…
03-07 14:51:19	f1 australian grand prix safety car 2026 03 07	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xddcfb3…
03-07 14:49:27	f1 australian grand prix constructor scores 1st mercedes 2026 03 07	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x1491f9…
03-07 14:47:03	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x054398…
03-07 14:46:27	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x309447…
02-27 23:46:27	prince andrew charged by march 31	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xfdab7f…
02-27 23:44:27	nothing ever happens february 152	Nothing	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x1cc221…
02-27 14:07:51	Starmer out by March 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x59e846…
02-27 14:06:25	will the us not strike iran by february 28 2026	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x1f1ac4…
02-27 14:05:11	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xb47169…
02-10 15:06:43	will hannah spencer win the gorton and denton by election	Yes	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x24ceaf…
02-10 14:46:29	will the us embassy in venezuela reopen by march 31	Yes	SELL	1	52¢	$1	0x77575a…
02-05 13:38:09	Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xb0ec70…
02-05 11:49:55	Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xbcdbe9…
02-04 22:59:23	Will the US strike Somalia next?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xca2110…
02-04 16:17:39	will hannah spencer win the gorton and denton by election	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x3ed4dc…