Athletic-Cutlet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$112

Unrealized P&L

+$15

Hit rate

85.8%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.99K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$42

Open exposure

$225

16 positions

First seen

2026-05-23

last 10-23 20:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

92% 40% -$119

Tech

4% — —

Other

4% 100% +$8

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions (16) Resolved markets (6) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	+54	$50	98¢	$53	+$3	10-10 23:28
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?	No	+26	$20	80¢	$21	+$1	10-20 22:09
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+31	$20	66¢	$20	+$0	10-18 21:14
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?	No	+25	$20	80¢	$20	$0	10-20 22:10
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+24	$20	82¢	$19	-$1	10-20 22:12
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	+19	$5	86¢	$16	+$11	10-19 22:28
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	+12	$10	96¢	$11	+$1	10-20 22:25
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?	No	+11	$10	96¢	$10	+$0	10-20 22:18
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?	No	+12	$10	88¢	$10	+$0	10-20 22:21
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	+13	$10	78¢	$10	$0	10-20 22:25
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	+11	$10	90¢	$10	$0	10-20 22:17
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	+6	$5	94¢	$5	+$0	10-20 22:16
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	+5	$5	94¢	$5	+$0	10-23 12:06
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	+5	$5	90¢	$5	$0	10-20 22:15
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Yes	+5	$5	93¢	$5	$0	10-20 22:14
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	+6	$5	66¢	$4	-$1	10-23 12:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-23 20:46:24	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	36	95¢	$34	0xb507de…
10-23 12:06:42	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xd54cf9…
10-23 12:04:08	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xff1b39…
10-23 11:59:09	Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $40 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	95	4¢	$4	0xdea560…
10-22 16:33:56	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0x690de7…
10-21 17:32:30	Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	34	54¢	$18	0xf615fa…
10-21 17:30:11	Trump meets with Putin by November 30?	No	SELL	83	17¢	$14	0x0a28a4…
10-21 17:29:24	Ukraine coup attempt by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	26	78¢	$21	0xefcd37…
10-21 17:27:20	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	8¢	$2	0xd3de7f…
10-21 13:34:36	Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0xe432a3…
10-20 22:33:11	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x9c8c54…
10-20 22:25:29	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0xa34cc0…
10-20 22:25:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x8bad45…
10-20 22:22:57	Putin visits US by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x0da8ee…
10-20 22:22:12	Canada admitted to the EU before 2029?	Yes	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x90460e…
10-20 22:21:48	Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2028?	No	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0x54353e…
10-20 22:21:12	Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?	No	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x0e1aea…
10-20 22:19:39	Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	24	83¢	$20	0xadb95f…
10-20 22:18:23	Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0xc770db…
10-20 22:17:27	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x0667d9…
10-20 22:16:21	Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xd38661…
10-20 22:15:05	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x5869ce…
10-20 22:14:33	Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x0e4cdc…
10-20 22:14:00	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	36	83¢	$30	0x0003a2…
10-20 22:12:39	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	24	85¢	$20	0xd9f6d9…
10-20 22:10:56	Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?	No	BUY	25	81¢	$20	0xc1e660…
10-20 22:09:59	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?	No	BUY	26	77¢	$20	0xd28672…
10-20 21:58:41	OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 31?	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xd0db22…
10-19 22:28:09	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0xb7e9c3…
10-19 22:21:02	Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x2df41d…
10-19 22:18:39	Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $40 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	89	6¢	$5	0xc31296…
10-19 21:42:21	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 19, 2026?	No	SELL	48	96¢	$46	0xbbe3fa…
10-18 21:41:18	Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x0b334b…
10-18 21:41:02	Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $40 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x3232b1…
10-18 21:37:00	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 19, 2026?	No	BUY	48	10¢	$5	0xaecf63…
10-18 21:28:32	Ukraine coup attempt by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	26	76¢	$20	0x5cec83…
10-18 21:24:51	Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?	No	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0x7d940e…
10-18 21:23:12	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?	No	BUY	43	92¢	$40	0xda8b4a…
10-18 21:22:03	Trump meets with Putin by November 30?	No	BUY	83	24¢	$20	0x3a829e…
10-18 21:14:24	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0xcc322c…
10-18 19:58:27	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0xbe213a…
10-18 19:56:51	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	28	73¢	$20	0x816c37…
10-18 19:32:06	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	96	52¢	$50	0xcb5926…
10-18 19:31:47	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	161	31¢	$50	0xb54347…
10-10 23:28:55	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	54	93¢	$50	0xfe5986…
10-09 20:52:32	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	179	56¢	$100	0x6f8a64…
10-09 11:55:51	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	624	100¢	$623	0x3973d4…
05-23 22:16:51	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	624	92¢	$574	0x89a68a…

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	2	$1.2K	624	624	+0	No	+$49	10-09 11:55
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	1	$100	179	0	+179	Yes	-$100	10-09 20:52
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	2	$64	36	36	+0	open	—	10-23 20:46
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	2	$60	179	0	+179	Yes	-$60	10-22 16:33
Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 19, 2026?	2	$51	48	48	+0	No	+$41	10-19 21:42
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	1	$50	161	0	+161	Yes	-$50	10-18 19:31
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	1	$50	54	0	+54	open	—	10-10 23:28
Ukraine coup attempt by December 31, 2027?	2	$41	26	26	+0	open	—	10-21 17:29
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?	1	$40	43	0	+43	open	—	10-18 21:23
Trump meets with Putin by November 30?	2	$34	83	83	+0	open	—	10-21 17:30
Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027?	2	$30	36	0	+36	open	—	10-21 13:34
Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027?	3	$25	34	34	+0	open	—	10-21 17:32
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?	1	$20	25	0	+25	open	—	10-20 22:10
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	1	$20	31	0	+31	open	—	10-18 21:14
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?	1	$20	26	0	+26	open	—	10-20 22:09
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	1	$20	28	0	+28	No	+$8	10-18 19:56
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2028?	1	$20	22	0	+22	open	—	10-20 22:21
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	1	$20	24	0	+24	open	—	10-20 22:12
Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $40 by June 30, 2027?	3	$10	189	95	+95	open	—	10-23 11:59
Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?	1	$10	62	0	+62	open	—	10-18 21:24
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	1	$10	13	0	+13	open	—	10-20 22:25
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 31?	1	$10	20	0	+20	open	—	10-20 21:58
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	1	$10	12	0	+12	open	—	10-20 22:25
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?	1	$10	12	0	+12	open	—	10-20 22:21
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?	1	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	10-20 22:18
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	1	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	10-20 22:17
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	2	$7	22	22	+0	open	—	10-21 17:27
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	10-23 12:04
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	10-20 22:16
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	1	$5	19	0	+19	open	—	10-19 22:28