Thrifty-Dungeon — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$28

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

93.2%

Resolved

Trades

879

lifetime

Volume

$130.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$148

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-12

last 07-23 16:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

53% 80% +$32

Other

39% — —

Tech

6% — —

Sports

1% — —

Crypto

0% 50% $-5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

78 active days in 12wk • peak 32 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	39	$14.0K	7,910	8,592	-682	open	—	06-27 17:57
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	34	$5.7K	3,476	3,844	-368	open	—	05-26 22:30
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	11	$5.1K	3,080	3,080	+0	open	—	06-14 21:33
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	24	$4.8K	2,740	2,740	+0	open	—	05-20 11:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	32	$4.2K	2,292	2,401	-109	open	—	05-24 22:24
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	14	$4.0K	2,819	2,311	+509	open	—	06-14 00:59
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	17	$3.8K	2,501	2,501	+0	open	—	07-02 11:23
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	34	$3.5K	2,080	1,738	+342	open	—	05-22 15:59
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	29	$3.4K	2,151	2,151	+0	open	—	05-28 09:43
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	12	$3.1K	1,831	1,831	+0	open	—	07-14 09:35
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	13	$3.0K	2,118	2,118	+0	open	—	06-12 10:27
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	12	$2.7K	1,698	1,698	-0	open	—	06-15 06:26
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	8	$2.6K	1,980	2,172	-192	open	—	06-13 23:13
will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	15	$2.3K	1,480	1,480	+0	open	—	07-12 01:15
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	22	$2.2K	1,304	1,479	-175	open	—	05-28 09:44
fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	10	$2.2K	1,227	1,227	+0	open	—	07-12 03:33
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	5	$2.2K	1,236	1,236	+0	open	—	05-30 13:20
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	8	$2.1K	1,143	1,143	+0	open	—	07-14 09:32
will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	6	$2.1K	1,095	1,095	+0	open	—	07-19 14:14
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	19	$1.8K	1,310	1,943	-633	open	—	05-23 09:35
us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	7	$1.6K	886	886	+0	open	—	07-12 12:21
will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	9	$1.5K	917	917	+0	open	—	07-11 10:15
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	14	$1.5K	933	933	+0	open	—	04-23 21:37
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	11	$1.4K	786	786	+0	open	—	05-11 22:18
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	9	$1.4K	842	842	+0	open	—	07-07 22:36
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	8	$1.3K	743	743	+0	open	—	04-21 21:21
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	5	$1.3K	766	766	+0	open	—	06-16 10:07
will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	9	$1.3K	758	758	+0	open	—	06-30 11:28
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	6	$1.1K	599	599	+0	open	—	07-01 00:47
ebola case in the us by june 30	4	$1.0K	616	616	+0	open	—	06-11 11:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-23 16:58:13	will anthropics valuation hit low 1pt0 by july 31 20260629184429519	No	SELL	140	94¢	$131	0x01a91c…
07-23 12:55:48	will wti dip to 70 in july 2026 from july 20	No	SELL	166	97¢	$160	0x446853…
07-23 11:40:10	will wti dip to 70 in july 2026 from july 20	No	SELL	103	97¢	$100	0xc45569…
07-23 11:17:43	will anthropics valuation hit low 1pt05 by july 31 20260629184429518	No	SELL	12	92¢	$12	0x18dc85…
07-23 11:11:58	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	SELL	275	92¢	$253	0xaa4c61…
07-23 11:11:43	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	SELL	287	87¢	$250	0x0fbf25…
07-23 11:09:45	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655082 171 832	No	SELL	271	98¢	$264	0xa55707…
07-22 08:55:31	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 24 20260718000915874	No	BUY	275	91¢	$250	0x3f9b07…
07-22 08:53:42	will there be houthi military action against saudi arabia by july 24 2026 20260714212508552	No	BUY	279	90¢	$250	0xd64e92…
07-22 08:53:06	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 23 2026	No	BUY	139	90¢	$125	0x67a09a…
07-22 08:52:40	will nvda reach 224 in july 2026	No	BUY	73	86¢	$62	0xde34e3…
07-22 08:52:04	will nvda dip to 184 in july 2026	No	BUY	141	89¢	$125	0xedcdcf…
07-22 08:51:07	will wti dip to 70 in july 2026 from july 20	No	BUY	269	93¢	$250	0xbc5f0d…
07-22 08:44:28	will bytedances valuation hit high 700b by july 31 20260630205251337	No	SELL	273	99¢	$271	0xdeb60b…
07-22 08:44:13	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	BUY	421	89¢	$375	0xc0f848…
07-22 08:43:39	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	BUY	405	92¢	$375	0xdd18ee…
07-22 08:40:48	will there be at least 5000 cyclosporiasis cases in the uptspt by july 31 2026 20260715005153975	Yes	BUY	71	88¢	$62	0x0ad2e5…
07-19 14:15:22	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 24 2026 20260713152715081 211	No	SELL	545	96¢	$524	0xb1791f…
07-19 14:14:46	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	No	SELL	1,095	97¢	$1,063	0xd47c5e…
07-16 08:30:46	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 31 2026 20260708165455693	No	BUY	97	64¢	$62	0x5b58cc…
07-16 08:28:25	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 24 2026 20260713152715081 211	No	BUY	275	91¢	$250	0x031a8f…
07-16 08:27:07	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	No	BUY	532	94¢	$500	0xe0afde…
07-16 08:26:35	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	BUY	144	87¢	$125	0x0588d0…
07-15 05:09:02	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 31 2026 20260708165455693	No	BUY	95	66¢	$62	0x7f263f…
07-15 05:05:11	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	BUY	73	86¢	$62	0xe055c1…
07-15 04:52:17	will canvas valuation hit low 39 by july 31 20260629184737588	No	SELL	73	93¢	$68	0x7b435d…
07-15 04:50:40	will anthropics valuation hit low 1pt05 by july 31 20260629184429518	No	BUY	149	84¢	$125	0xdf4140…
07-15 04:49:59	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 24 2026 20260713152715081 211	No	BUY	68	92¢	$62	0x0fd348…
07-15 04:48:47	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	No	BUY	274	91¢	$250	0x1e28f1…
07-15 04:48:23	next mythos class model released by july 31 2026	No	BUY	132	95¢	$125	0x2feb38…
07-15 04:21:34	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 24 2026 20260713152715081 211	No	BUY	135	92¢	$125	0xba5d79…
07-14 21:55:38	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 17 2026 20260708165455692	No	BUY	134	93¢	$125	0x33a8bf…
07-14 17:52:49	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	SELL	273	95¢	$260	0xfe2b34…
07-14 17:52:49	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	SELL	142	95¢	$135	0x40d081…
07-14 16:17:34	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	SELL	579	93¢	$539	0xef3f67…
07-14 09:35:53	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	England	SELL	57	55¢	$31	0xbd8a8e…
07-14 09:35:40	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	France	SELL	104	60¢	$62	0x6feaee…
07-14 09:35:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	532	98¢	$519	0x2b7cc3…
07-14 09:32:26	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	263	98¢	$258	0xc78fbd…
07-13 23:57:17	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	No	BUY	85	74¢	$62	0x39bf02…
07-13 23:57:05	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	BUY	80	78¢	$62	0x4eab7b…
07-13 23:56:53	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 24 2026 20260713152715081 211	No	BUY	67	93¢	$62	0x266d60…
07-13 23:08:34	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	69	82¢	$57	0xd2018f…
07-13 23:08:22	iran charges hormuz fees by july 31	No	SELL	69	78¢	$54	0x519c78…
07-13 22:36:01	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	No	BUY	140	89¢	$125	0xfd42ce…
07-13 22:33:44	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655082 171 832	No	BUY	135	93¢	$125	0xe4c2cf…
07-13 22:21:20	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt35 by july 31 20260629184429515	No	BUY	67	93¢	$62	0xe85f5e…
07-13 22:19:44	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	69	83¢	$58	0x317f19…
07-13 22:19:20	iran charges hormuz fees by july 31	No	SELL	69	79¢	$55	0x6cbf89…
07-13 22:18:35	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	No	BUY	70	89¢	$62	0x970bc0…
07-13 11:52:14	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	No	BUY	78	80¢	$62	0xf77605…
07-13 06:37:31	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	England	BUY	57	55¢	$31	0xcde711…
07-13 06:35:31	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	275	91¢	$250	0x13210f…
07-13 06:34:52	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	BUY	134	93¢	$125	0x33671f…
07-13 06:28:01	next mythos class model released by july 31 2026	No	BUY	140	89¢	$125	0x7caaef…
07-13 06:21:13	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655082 171 832	No	BUY	136	92¢	$125	0x90b173…
07-13 06:18:37	will anthropics valuation hit low 1pt0 by july 31 20260629184429519	No	BUY	140	89¢	$125	0x212ada…
07-13 06:09:50	will bytedances valuation hit high 700b by july 31 20260630205251337	No	BUY	134	93¢	$125	0x324b2b…
07-13 06:06:22	sinaloa govpt ruben rocha extradited to us by july 31 20260626164958846	No	SELL	67	95¢	$64	0x8b5ab1…
07-12 23:36:31	will the next claude opus model be released by august 31 2026 20260701204710233	Yes	SELL	77	85¢	$66	0x8fe10e…
07-12 12:21:20	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	SELL	886	93¢	$824	0x7fe746…
07-12 07:38:47	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	263	95¢	$250	0x42ba3f…
07-12 07:35:41	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	BUY	137	91¢	$125	0x5453fa…
07-12 06:54:13	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	France	BUY	104	60¢	$62	0xa12858…
07-12 03:33:22	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	Argentina	SELL	1,227	97¢	$1,196	0xf5c387…
07-12 03:27:28	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Conor McGregor	BUY	108	29¢	$31	0xa9ea91…
07-12 03:02:43	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	84	75¢	$62	0x115d1e…
07-12 02:59:40	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	81	78¢	$62	0xd716df…
07-12 02:56:44	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	81	78¢	$62	0xdedbb9…
07-12 02:54:14	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	79	79¢	$62	0xb85725…
07-12 02:38:20	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	148	84¢	$125	0x7099e6…
07-12 02:24:11	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	SELL	137	84¢	$116	0xf9f54c…
07-12 02:24:04	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	SELL	149	78¢	$116	0x5a5ca3…
07-12 02:23:55	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	SELL	135	90¢	$121	0x31843e…
07-12 02:17:47	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	139	90¢	$125	0x50bdf6…
07-12 01:41:44	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	SELL	10	30¢	$3	0x7ef66b…
07-12 01:40:52	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	283	88¢	$250	0x70030c…
07-12 01:39:49	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	SELL	60	44¢	$27	0xbd1cbd…
07-12 01:15:41	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	SELL	164	55¢	$90	0x6a51e3…
07-12 01:13:20	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	SELL	274	90¢	$246	0x9e97e9…
07-12 01:10:59	will the united states send warships through the strait of hormuz by july 31 2026 20260701001952741	No	SELL	85	41¢	$35	0x988c3d…
07-11 23:57:23	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	SELL	164	65¢	$107	0xaf3799…
07-11 23:50:19	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	166	75¢	$125	0xa79227…
07-11 23:14:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	263	95¢	$250	0x78fe2b…
07-11 23:14:01	iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	No	SELL	293	98¢	$286	0x551d3d…
07-11 23:11:20	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	Norway	SELL	88	12¢	$10	0x7ef0e9…
07-11 11:11:49	will canvas valuation hit high 45 by july 31 20260629184737583	No	BUY	69	91¢	$62	0x48d185…
07-11 11:11:35	will canvas valuation hit low 39 by july 31 20260629184737588	No	BUY	73	86¢	$62	0xd4bcfe…
07-11 10:15:35	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	SELL	139	93¢	$129	0xf07e5e…
07-11 10:12:37	will anthropics valuation hit low 1pt05 by july 31 20260629184429518	No	BUY	152	82¢	$125	0xa261e2…
07-11 09:44:58	will the next claude opus model be released by august 31 2026 20260701204710233	Yes	BUY	77	81¢	$62	0x0a651d…
07-11 09:36:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	269	93¢	$250	0x51577d…
07-11 09:28:55	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	BUY	70	89¢	$62	0x2eb2f8…
07-11 09:25:56	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	139	90¢	$125	0x00ca3c…
07-11 07:04:43	iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	No	BUY	149	84¢	$125	0x6c127f…
07-11 01:08:55	will the united states send warships through the strait of hormuz by july 31 2026 20260701001952741	No	BUY	85	74¢	$62	0x66a611…
07-11 01:07:55	iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	No	BUY	144	87¢	$125	0x2a3b53…
07-11 01:06:16	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	BUY	137	91¢	$125	0xed0e7f…
07-11 00:51:52	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	SELL	297	77¢	$229	0xf067eb…
07-10 22:45:05	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	Norway	BUY	88	36¢	$31	0xbdbed0…