Thrifty-Dungeon — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.20K

Unrealized P&L

-$12

Hit rate

75.9%

Resolved

1,070

Trades

3,976

lifetime

Volume

$307.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$77

Open exposure

$100

3 positions

First seen

2026-04-12

last 10-27 03:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 149 days

Categories

Other

47% 58% +$791

Politics

33% 56% +$626

Crypto

11% 68% +$264

Tech

8% 76% +$383

Sports

1% 69% +$134

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

73 active days in 12wk • peak 159 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?	No	+65	$50	76¢	$49	-$1	10-25 08:04
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+125	$50	33¢	$41	-$9	10-26 00:20
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	+24	$12	42¢	$10	-$3	10-26 02:41

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	46	$14.7K	8,732	8,732	+0	No	+$745	06-27 17:57
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	35	$6.0K	3,844	3,844	+0	No	+$453	05-26 22:30
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	11	$5.1K	3,080	3,080	+0	Yes	+$581	06-14 21:33
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	24	$4.8K	2,740	2,740	+0	No	+$57	05-20 11:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	33	$4.3K	2,401	2,401	+0	No	+$116	05-24 22:24
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	17	$4.3K	2,824	2,824	+0	No	+$2	06-14 08:06
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	27	$4.1K	2,495	2,495	+0	Yes	+$117	08-11 11:21
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	35	$3.8K	2,080	2,080	+0	No	+$87	05-22 23:05
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	17	$3.8K	2,501	2,501	+0	No	+$1	07-02 11:23
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	29	$3.4K	2,151	2,151	+0	No	+$130	05-28 09:43
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	12	$3.1K	1,831	1,831	+0	No	+$74	07-14 09:35
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	13	$3.0K	2,118	2,118	+0	Yes	-$206	06-12 10:27
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	14	$2.9K	1,815	1,815	+0	Yes	+$38	06-15 06:26
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	9	$2.8K	2,172	2,172	+0	Yes	-$247	06-13 23:13
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	20	$2.4K	1,968	1,968	+0	No	-$89	08-19 23:16
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	29	$2.4K	1,781	1,781	+0	No	-$107	08-13 22:15
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	24	$2.4K	1,479	1,479	+0	No	-$38	05-28 09:44
will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	15	$2.3K	1,480	1,480	+0	Yes	-$153	07-12 01:15
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	17	$2.3K	1,477	1,477	+0	Yes	+$75	08-14 01:35
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	27	$2.2K	1,286	1,286	+0	Yes	-$26	05-28 09:44
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	19	$2.2K	1,392	1,392	+0	No	+$32	08-07 23:07
us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	14	$2.2K	1,266	1,266	+0	No	-$49	07-30 13:43
fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	10	$2.2K	1,227	1,227	+0	Argentina	+$196	07-12 03:33
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	5	$2.2K	1,236	1,236	+0	No	+$177	05-30 13:20
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	13	$2.2K	1,257	1,257	+0	Yes	+$93	06-18 05:20
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	8	$2.1K	1,143	1,143	+0	No	+$109	07-14 09:32
will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	6	$2.1K	1,095	1,095	+0	No	+$63	07-19 14:14
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	21	$1.9K	1,943	1,943	+0	No	+$478	05-23 09:35
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	19	$1.8K	1,060	1,060	+0	Yes	+$46	07-31 07:12
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 15, 2026?	13	$1.8K	1,693	490	+1,203	Yes	+$203	09-01 09:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 03:28:38	Grizzlies vs. Jazz	Grizzlies	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0x127d98…
10-27 03:25:23	Grizzlies vs. Jazz	Grizzlies	BUY	24	82¢	$20	0xa82b58…
10-27 03:14:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x24f5fd…
10-27 03:12:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xcd045c…
10-27 03:02:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	SELL	9	91¢	$9	0x771b02…
10-27 03:01:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xb4d448…
10-27 02:52:53	Cowboys vs. Eagles	Cowboys	SELL	37	96¢	$35	0xdd1767…
10-27 01:28:47	Cowboys vs. Eagles	Cowboys	BUY	37	68¢	$25	0x55d7fb…
10-27 01:24:17	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,950 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	SELL	68	53¢	$36	0x3dffc3…
10-27 01:23:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	32	77¢	$25	0xad3ec3…
10-27 01:22:42	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?	Yes	SELL	44	41¢	$18	0xacda1c…
10-27 01:22:27	Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $142.50 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	50¢	$10	0x6cab97…
10-26 02:53:14	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	44	57¢	$25	0x10a723…
10-26 02:50:29	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	32	77¢	$25	0x6e9ab4…
10-26 02:49:17	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	69¢	$25	0x61c614…
10-26 02:45:30	Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $142.50 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	60¢	$12	0x0b0802…
10-26 02:43:35	Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (HIGH) $152.50 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	72¢	$25	0x110e8f…
10-26 02:41:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	BUY	24	52¢	$12	0xd6d164…
10-26 02:33:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	37	68¢	$25	0xb9dbf7…
10-26 02:27:18	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,150 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	20¢	$12	0xcd7766…
10-26 02:23:59	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,950 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	68	73¢	$50	0xe12596…
10-26 01:22:05	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 October 19-25?	No	SELL	134	99¢	$132	0x6a3478…
10-26 00:20:56	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	45¢	$25	0xd3a0e2…
10-25 08:06:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in October?	Yes	SELL	40	57¢	$23	0x4c9d1b…
10-25 08:04:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in October?	Yes	BUY	40	63¢	$25	0xc84d51…
10-25 08:04:15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?	No	BUY	65	77¢	$50	0x3bd7c0…
10-25 07:36:51	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	69	36¢	$25	0x92df01…
10-24 07:29:42	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	120	83¢	$100	0x2242d0…
10-24 07:26:00	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 October 19-25?	No	BUY	32	77¢	$25	0xbe18b8…
10-24 07:25:33	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 October 19-25?	No	BUY	32	77¢	$25	0xcdf49c…
10-24 07:25:08	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 October 19-25?	No	BUY	32	77¢	$25	0x3f32a7…
10-24 07:24:38	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 19-25?	Yes	SELL	65	48¢	$31	0xbf90ce…
10-24 01:14:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	57	92¢	$52	0xdca528…
10-24 01:14:00	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 October 19-25?	No	SELL	61	97¢	$59	0x0dea8e…
10-24 01:13:42	Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 October 19-25?	No	SELL	91	99¢	$90	0xcc7b02…
10-24 01:13:18	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 19-25?	Yes	BUY	22	57¢	$12	0xa2648b…
10-24 01:12:30	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 October 19-25?	No	BUY	36	69¢	$25	0xb80ab7…
10-23 10:47:29	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	56¢	$6	0xeba100…
10-23 10:45:38	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 October 19-25?	No	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0x153f3f…
10-23 10:45:02	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	34	37¢	$12	0x82f899…
10-23 10:44:02	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	31	80¢	$25	0xdd77a0…
10-23 10:43:15	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,150 Week of October 19 2026?	No	SELL	69	98¢	$68	0x8fb81b…
10-23 10:42:14	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	17	36¢	$6	0x1b35bb…
10-23 10:41:45	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 October 19-25?	No	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0xa143e5…
10-23 10:40:26	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 19-25?	Yes	BUY	43	29¢	$13	0x3ef689…
10-23 10:40:11	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 19-25?	No	SELL	66	71¢	$47	0x233b03…
10-23 10:34:08	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 19-25?	No	BUY	34	73¢	$25	0xa9fc02…
10-23 10:33:03	Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (HIGH) $150 Week of October 19 2026?	No	SELL	49	29¢	$14	0xda8b34…
10-23 10:30:24	Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $140 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	SELL	53	12¢	$6	0x14b5f7…
10-23 10:30:02	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,950 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	SELL	42	5¢	$2	0xafb4ae…
10-22 23:32:05	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,950 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	15¢	$6	0xa1236f…
10-22 23:30:35	Will Trump say "Tax" 33+ times during his Midterm Rally in Iowa?	No	BUY	35	72¢	$25	0xcd717b…
10-22 23:30:23	Will Trump say "Hell" 15+ times during his Midterm Rally in Iowa?	No	BUY	12	52¢	$6	0xa34329…
10-22 23:30:09	Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 15+ times during his Midterm Rally in Iowa?	No	BUY	89	7¢	$6	0xf39ef9…
10-22 23:29:59	Will Trump say "Democrat" 5+ times during his Midterm Rally in Iowa?	No	BUY	91	7¢	$6	0x273f79…
10-22 23:27:23	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	SELL	96	53¢	$51	0x605235…
10-22 23:21:54	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	24	26¢	$6	0xedd209…
10-22 23:21:18	will spy reach 770 by october 19 2026 from october 22	No	BUY	39	64¢	$25	0x44cfd1…
10-22 23:20:29	Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $140 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0xb84ba7…
10-22 23:20:11	Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $140 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	25¢	$5	0x3551fe…
10-22 23:19:30	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 19-25?	No	SELL	32	50¢	$16	0x9ac57f…
10-22 23:18:42	will spcx reach 150 by october 19 2026 from october 22	No	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0xfe6ec5…
10-22 23:16:41	Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $140 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	22¢	$5	0xee54c8…
10-22 23:14:20	will xauusd reach 4050 by october 19 2026	Yes	BUY	19	66¢	$12	0x94d299…
10-22 23:13:09	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $755 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	SELL	47	18¢	$8	0xeda46b…
10-22 23:10:02	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	SELL	46	45¢	$21	0x161356…
10-22 23:06:27	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $340 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	SELL	41	7¢	$3	0x94caf0…
10-22 23:06:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	SELL	65	1¢	$0	0xb2235b…
10-22 06:50:24	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $755 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	47	13¢	$6	0xa2bf17…
10-22 06:49:35	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	54	53¢	$29	0xd1c73e…
10-22 06:48:42	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	59¢	$21	0xd06cd5…
10-22 06:48:11	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 Week of October 19 2026?	No	SELL	25	57¢	$14	0x76889d…
10-22 06:46:57	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	12¢	$2	0x7b7557…
10-22 06:46:09	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	65	19¢	$12	0x9959ee…
10-22 06:42:42	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 Week of October 19 2026?	No	SELL	25	50¢	$12	0xdafc7c…
10-22 06:40:57	Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 October 19-25?	No	SELL	39	20¢	$8	0xe934e7…
10-22 06:39:20	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 Week of October 19 2026?	No	SELL	50	57¢	$29	0x933ed1…
10-22 04:11:35	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	57	88¢	$50	0xdb87e9…
10-22 04:10:29	will aapl dip to 340 by october 19 2026 from october 21	Yes	BUY	41	61¢	$25	0xc3e7b9…
10-22 04:10:17	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $348 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	46	54¢	$25	0x206488…
10-22 04:07:42	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $216 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	70¢	$25	0x298f6c…
10-22 04:07:23	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	71	70¢	$50	0xfd8357…
10-22 04:02:30	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0x382e46…
10-22 04:01:53	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	38	66¢	$25	0xcee05b…
10-22 04:00:06	Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 October 19-25?	No	BUY	78	32¢	$25	0xd09584…
10-22 03:59:47	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 19-25?	No	BUY	64	78¢	$50	0x841031…
10-22 03:57:29	Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 October 19-25?	No	BUY	91	82¢	$75	0x34aa87…
10-22 03:55:44	will spcx reach 167 50 by october 19 2026	No	BUY	89	84¢	$75	0x5fed4d…
10-22 03:55:24	Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $145 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	87	86¢	$75	0x259bfa…
10-22 03:54:29	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	75	13¢	$10	0x7694d7…
10-22 03:50:50	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	41	61¢	$25	0x4378b7…
10-22 03:50:11	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,150 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	69	72¢	$50	0x978f42…
10-22 03:44:23	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	147	68¢	$100	0x2dd0f0…
10-16 23:27:44	Ilhan Omar federally charged by October 31?	Yes	SELL	440	5¢	$21	0x55ac02…
10-16 23:27:32	will bitcoin dip to 80k october 12 18 2026 from october 15	No	SELL	97	74¢	$72	0x086b1a…
10-16 23:27:17	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 October 12-18?	No	SELL	78	90¢	$70	0x8fc303…
10-16 23:26:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of October 12 2026?	No	SELL	77	100¢	$77	0x4daa73…
10-16 23:26:29	Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 October 12-18?	No	SELL	128	99¢	$127	0x7f45a3…
10-16 23:26:14	will wti dip to 95 by october 12 2026 from october 15	No	SELL	76	100¢	$76	0x4b8f88…
10-16 07:26:45	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of October 12 2026?	No	SELL	47	33¢	$16	0xbc17f6…