Realized P&L (90d)
+$2.83K
Unrealized P&L
+$8.47K
Hit rate
68.4%
Resolved (90d)
85
Trades (90d)
1,018
72,889 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$520.2K
$16.3M lifetime
Avg / trade
$224
Open exposure
$91.5K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-23
last 10-30 20:35
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 184 days
Categories
Politics
78% 44% +$164,397
Other
22% 46% +$13,392
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
62 active days in 12wk • peak 52 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +53,050 $20,982 88¢ $46.9K +$25,967 08-30 19:54
us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917 Yes +17,027 $9,183 99¢ $16.9K +$7,673 10-30 20:35
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +52,570 $18,358 12¢ $6.0K -$12,313 08-30 19:48
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? No +58,259 $12,612 6¢ $3.8K -$8,825 10-30 00:14
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No +3,236 $2,672 87¢ $2.8K +$144 09-22 18:26
us announces end of iranian blockade by march 31 2027 No +6,352 $2,283 36¢ $2.3K +$36 10-14 22:26
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +2,762 $1,713 82¢ $2.3K +$566 07-23 00:03
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +1,900 $1,368 100¢ $1.9K +$522 09-05 18:14
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +2,000 $1,320 87¢ $1.7K +$420 10-21 19:38
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No +1,300 $1,060 86¢ $1.1K +$52 09-29 02:59
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? No +2,118 $709 47¢ $996 +$287 09-26 00:40
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? No +1,000 $1,030 94¢ $935 -$95 10-21 21:02
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No +987 $873 86¢ $844 -$29 10-29 17:41
Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium? Yes +7,000 $420 11¢ $735 +$315 10-19 12:10
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Yes +6,000 $1,140 6¢ $390 -$750 09-22 23:52
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No -324 -$288 94¢ $-306 -$18 06-15 01:59
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +328 $635 92¢ $300 -$334 05-24 04:10
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? No +277 $223 87¢ $241 +$17 06-16 04:16
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes +2,000 $180 8¢ $170 -$10 10-19 12:28
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? No +16,733 $3,171 1¢ $167 -$3,004 10-30 00:42
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? Yes +3,000 $390 6¢ $165 -$225 09-27 15:16
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No +145 $51 86¢ $126 +$75 10-29 17:41
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Yes +1,379 $138 9¢ $118 -$20 07-07 23:22
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? Yes +300 $102 26¢ $76 -$26 10-08 03:36
israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 No +7,529 $1,369 1¢ $75 -$1,294 10-21 21:00
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? No +99 -$650 56¢ $55 +$706 10-29 17:55
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? Yes +24,076 $1,625 0¢ $24 -$1,600 09-10 19:39
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No -161 -$21 14¢ $-23 -$2 10-16 15:43
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes -34 -$372 18¢ $-6 +$366 10-19 20:31
iran charges hormuz fees by october 31 Yes +198 $126 0¢ $1 -$125 07-16 21:13