Realized P&L
+$213.7K
Unrealized P&L
+$17.4K
Hit rate
64.3%
Resolved
835
Trades
72,931
lifetime
Volume
$16.3M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$224
Open exposure
$86.3K
26 positions
First seen
2026-01-23
last 11-03 00:52
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 185 days
Categories
Politics
78% 44% +$200,501
Other
22% 46% +$13,247
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
62 active days in 12wk • peak 52 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +53,050 $20,982 88¢ $46.9K +$25,967 08-30 19:54
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +17,027 $9,183 87¢ $14.8K +$5,613 10-30 20:35
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +52,570 $18,358 12¢ $6.0K -$12,313 08-30 19:48
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No +3,236 $2,672 86¢ $2.8K +$127 09-22 18:26
us announces end of iranian blockade by march 31 2027 No +6,352 $2,283 38¢ $2.4K +$163 10-14 22:26
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +2,762 $1,713 82¢ $2.3K +$566 07-23 00:03
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? No +16,733 $3,171 13¢ $2.2K -$979 10-30 00:42
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +2,000 $1,320 87¢ $1.7K +$420 10-21 19:38
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No +1,300 $1,060 86¢ $1.1K +$52 09-29 02:59
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? No +2,118 $709 50¢ $1.0K +$340 09-26 00:40
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? No +1,000 $1,030 92¢ $925 -$105 10-21 21:02
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Yes +6,000 $1,140 14¢ $840 -$300 09-22 23:52
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No +987 $873 84¢ $834 -$39 10-29 17:41
Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium? Yes +7,000 $420 8¢ $595 +$175 10-19 12:10
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +328 $635 94¢ $310 -$324 05-24 04:10
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No -324 -$288 96¢ $-309 -$21 06-15 01:59
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? No +277 $223 90¢ $248 +$24 06-16 04:16
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3? Yes +12,312 $1,379 2¢ $191 -$1,188 11-03 00:52
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? Yes +3,000 $390 6¢ $180 -$210 09-27 15:16
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No +145 $51 86¢ $126 +$75 10-29 17:41
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Yes +1,379 $138 9¢ $124 -$14 07-07 23:22
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes +2,000 $180 6¢ $110 -$70 10-19 12:28
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? No +99 -$650 60¢ $60 +$710 10-29 17:55
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? Yes +24,076 $1,625 0¢ $24 -$1,600 09-10 19:39
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No -161 -$21 14¢ $-23 -$2 10-16 15:43
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes -34 -$372 18¢ $-6 +$366 10-19 20:31