Oval-Treaty — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$173

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

88.5%

Resolved

Trades

378

lifetime

Volume

$75.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$199

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-29

last 08-08 13:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

82% 100% +$10

Other

17% 86% $-183

Tech

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

42 active days in 12wk • peak 23 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	21	$20.5K	15,071	8,000	+7,071	open	—	08-02 06:30
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	1	$8.0K	8,016	0	+8,016	open	—	03-31 10:49
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	15	$6.1K	6,169	0	+6,169	open	—	04-26 00:58
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	5	$5.9K	3,000	3,000	+0	open	—	04-17 14:57
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	12	$5.5K	2,617	3,000	-383	open	—	06-28 11:27
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	7	$2.9K	2,920	0	+2,920	open	—	06-21 12:19
putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	6	$1.8K	1,800	0	+1,800	open	—	08-06 14:47
putin out as president of russia by september 30 2026	23	$1.8K	1,828	0	+1,828	open	—	07-28 10:08
putin and zelenskyy shake hands by august 31	17	$1.7K	1,095	619	+476	open	—	08-11 06:20
russia elections yabloko clears duma threshold	2	$1.0K	1,110	0	+1,110	open	—	08-07 17:56
putin out as president of russia by july 31 2026	2	$596	300	300	+0	open	—	07-26 17:09
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	20	$531	903	25,480	-24,577	open	—	06-30 16:00
Will Germany be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	2	$495	500	0	+500	open	—	05-16 17:59
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	16	$480	1,500	1,058	+442	open	—	08-08 13:47
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	2	$436	450	0	+450	open	—	04-08 13:22
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	1	$392	400	0	+400	open	—	05-07 07:31
ukraine signs peace deal with russia by august 31 20260619003108240	5	$388	429	0	+429	open	—	07-27 00:53
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	3	$381	400	0	+400	open	—	04-07 15:32
will doly begum win the by election for the seat of scarborough southwest in the house of commons of canada	1	$355	360	0	+360	open	—	04-04 08:36
Will Germany be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	2	$346	350	0	+350	open	—	05-15 19:27
Will Lithuania be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	2	$334	337	0	+337	open	—	05-16 18:52
Will Finland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	1	$299	300	0	+300	Yes	+$1	05-05 21:44
Will Greece advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	2	$298	300	0	+300	Yes	+$2	05-05 21:44
will the bank of korea make no change to the base rate after the april meeting	3	$298	300	0	+300	open	—	04-04 16:21
Will United Kingdom be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	2	$297	300	0	+300	open	—	05-16 15:25
Netanyahu out by April 30?	1	$296	300	0	+300	open	—	04-09 16:17
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	6	$296	300	0	+300	open	—	04-07 15:51
Will Israel advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	2	$296	300	0	+300	Yes	+$4	05-06 18:39
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$295	300	0	+300	open	—	04-07 13:39
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?	4	$295	200	200	+0	open	—	04-08 07:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 06:20:28	putin and zelenskyy shake hands by august 31	No	SELL	191	100¢	$190	0x064418…
08-11 05:57:18	putin and zelenskyy shake hands by august 31	No	SELL	44	100¢	$44	0x2ea601…
08-08 13:47:12	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	25¢	$2	0x9e0962…
08-08 13:47:09	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	51	25¢	$13	0x91286b…
08-07 17:56:49	russia elections yabloko clears duma threshold	No	BUY	258	92¢	$237	0xfbd321…
08-07 17:56:04	russia elections yabloko clears duma threshold	No	BUY	852	93¢	$792	0xd77854…
08-07 17:31:22	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	24¢	$240	0x08230d…
08-07 17:09:06	putin and zelenskyy shake hands by august 31	No	BUY	440	99¢	$435	0xfb0f7d…
08-07 13:36:22	putin and zelenskyy shake hands by august 31	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x773c28…
08-06 14:47:23	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x43e787…
08-06 14:20:29	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	No	BUY	182	99¢	$180	0xbe8383…
08-06 10:58:18	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	No	BUY	211	99¢	$209	0xc3cdf6…
08-06 09:30:23	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x437b85…
08-06 06:26:53	putin and zelenskyy shake hands by august 31	No	SELL	319	100¢	$318	0xbb70bf…
08-05 16:33:12	putin and zelenskyy shake hands by august 31	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x36a6ce…
08-05 08:20:38	putin and zelenskyy shake hands by august 31	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x06e475…
08-05 06:59:02	putin and zelenskyy shake hands by august 31	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x377619…
08-05 06:02:29	putin and zelenskyy shake hands by august 31	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x5aa4e2…
08-05 01:56:59	putin and zelenskyy shake hands by august 31	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x7d49ca…
08-04 12:15:35	russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by august 31 2026	No	BUY	42	96¢	$40	0x80befc…
08-03 19:46:32	russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by august 31 2026	No	BUY	138	96¢	$133	0x1113b7…
08-03 19:35:44	russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by august 31 2026	No	BUY	121	96¢	$116	0x9831d3…
08-03 19:17:44	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	No	BUY	700	99¢	$693	0x9792ec…
08-02 06:30:45	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	91¢	$910	0xc9cae6…
07-28 10:08:11	putin out as president of russia by september 30 2026	No	BUY	401	96¢	$387	0x38ce49…
07-28 10:07:46	putin out as president of russia by september 30 2026	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x914464…
07-28 10:03:53	putin out as president of russia by september 30 2026	No	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0xc244b8…
07-28 10:03:43	putin out as president of russia by september 30 2026	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x70a7be…
07-28 10:03:19	putin out as president of russia by september 30 2026	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0xa3e2f2…
07-28 10:02:28	putin out as president of russia by september 30 2026	No	BUY	7	96¢	$6	0x812a26…
07-28 10:00:32	putin out as president of russia by september 30 2026	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x6c605e…
07-28 09:54:59	putin out as president of russia by september 30 2026	No	BUY	7	96¢	$7	0x1203fd…
07-28 09:52:52	putin out as president of russia by september 30 2026	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0xe744d2…
07-28 09:48:28	putin out as president of russia by september 30 2026	No	BUY	7	96¢	$7	0x821625…
07-28 09:44:47	putin out as president of russia by september 30 2026	No	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x7dfb17…
07-28 09:42:46	putin out as president of russia by september 30 2026	No	BUY	8	96¢	$7	0xf51036…
07-28 09:36:07	putin out as president of russia by september 30 2026	No	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0x6844f1…
07-28 09:35:32	putin out as president of russia by september 30 2026	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x596ec9…
07-28 08:40:13	putin out as president of russia by september 30 2026	No	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0x3b8455…
07-28 02:29:34	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	113	92¢	$104	0xc67401…
07-28 02:28:42	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0xc2a510…
07-28 02:11:18	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	92¢	$5	0x374436…
07-28 00:51:39	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	92¢	$3	0x780345…
07-28 00:51:12	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	92¢	$3	0x8f7c6b…
07-28 00:46:01	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	92¢	$5	0xf4a580…
07-28 00:16:48	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	92¢	$5	0x76d03d…
07-28 00:13:16	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	92¢	$6	0x9d4251…
07-27 22:53:18	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	92¢	$4	0x92e2ac…
07-27 21:01:45	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,847	92¢	$2,619	0xf3f174…
07-27 08:33:49	putin out as president of russia by september 30 2026	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xaf219d…
07-27 08:26:34	putin out as president of russia by september 30 2026	No	BUY	150	96¢	$144	0xd01a6b…
07-27 08:25:07	putin out as president of russia by september 30 2026	No	BUY	0	96¢	$0	0x1b0f7c…
07-27 07:54:46	putin out as president of russia by september 30 2026	No	BUY	4	96¢	$3	0x7e63d1…
07-27 07:52:45	putin out as president of russia by september 30 2026	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x29bade…
07-27 00:53:40	ukraine signs peace deal with russia by august 31 20260619003108240	No	BUY	44	95¢	$42	0xb91359…
07-26 17:15:15	putin and zelenskyy shake hands by august 31	No	BUY	9	98¢	$9	0x876089…
07-26 17:10:48	putin and zelenskyy shake hands by august 31	No	BUY	305	98¢	$299	0x43f368…
07-26 17:09:54	putin out as president of russia by july 31 2026	No	SELL	300	100¢	$299	0xfb4b13…
07-26 17:05:25	putin and zelenskyy shake hands by august 31	No	BUY	59	98¢	$58	0xf6899f…
07-25 15:22:54	putin out as president of russia by september 30 2026	No	BUY	800	96¢	$770	0xbe42e7…
07-23 06:43:01	putin and zelenskyy shake hands by august 31	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x3b8b50…
07-21 01:48:58	putin out as president of russia by september 30 2026	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x1968de…
07-20 21:08:07	putin out as president of russia by september 30 2026	No	BUY	395	96¢	$380	0x8d6f34…
07-19 18:24:43	trump meets with putin by december 31	Yes	SELL	79	31¢	$24	0x37fbd3…
07-19 06:45:43	trump meets with putin by december 31	Yes	SELL	21	31¢	$7	0xcebffa…
07-18 03:12:03	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	No	BUY	600	98¢	$587	0xafb96f…
07-16 02:57:26	putin and zelenskyy shake hands by august 31	No	BUY	26	99¢	$25	0xf9c4b2…
07-15 10:40:23	putin and zelenskyy shake hands by august 31	No	BUY	32	99¢	$31	0x43da13…
07-15 07:11:26	putin and zelenskyy shake hands by august 31	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xc455f0…
07-08 07:26:37	putin out as president of russia by july 31 2026	No	BUY	300	99¢	$297	0xc37ca2…
07-03 22:25:14	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,000	90¢	$1,800	0x448080…
07-02 09:01:28	trump meets with putin by december 31	Yes	BUY	23	37¢	$8	0x7d5122…
07-02 09:01:13	trump meets with putin by december 31	Yes	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0xd71c2c…
07-02 09:01:11	trump meets with putin by december 31	Yes	BUY	16	38¢	$6	0x60aad2…
07-02 09:00:58	trump meets with putin by december 31	Yes	BUY	34	38¢	$13	0x03e063…
07-02 07:30:38	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9,000	88¢	$7,920	0x183d62…
07-01 18:00:52	ukraine signs peace deal with russia by august 31 20260619003108240	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x4107c0…
07-01 15:00:52	ukraine signs peace deal with russia by august 31 20260619003108240	No	BUY	150	90¢	$135	0x23a950…
07-01 14:55:47	ukraine signs peace deal with russia by august 31 20260619003108240	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x19977e…
07-01 10:26:26	ukraine signs peace deal with russia by august 31 20260619003108240	No	BUY	175	90¢	$158	0xc2cf8f…
06-30 21:10:19	Russian strike on Poland by June 30?	Yes	SELL	51	0¢	$0	0xc28b70…
06-30 20:17:07	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	58	85¢	$49	0xa9352b…
06-30 16:02:04	Russian strike on Poland by June 30?	Yes	SELL	31	0¢	$0	0xd10881…
06-30 16:00:05	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18,088	0¢	$22	0xde4630…
06-28 11:32:23	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,400	88¢	$2,992	0xa3a151…
06-28 11:27:19	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2,999	100¢	$2,993	0xd97861…
06-28 09:41:17	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	15	87¢	$13	0x4c8a47…
06-28 09:03:29	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	582	87¢	$507	0x6e79f1…
06-28 08:52:07	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	596	87¢	$519	0x3e6499…
06-28 08:40:16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xb4bc04…
06-27 13:16:10	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	81	89¢	$72	0xf58b16…
06-27 13:07:04	Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	No	SELL	72	100¢	$72	0x17c5f9…
06-27 13:05:16	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	339	89¢	$302	0x264647…
06-26 11:44:07	russia x ukraine ceasefire by june 30 2026 631	No	BUY	286	99¢	$284	0xe8705d…
06-21 12:19:58	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	1,884	99¢	$1,871	0x608e02…
06-21 12:00:29	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xd3e71b…
06-21 10:06:13	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xb15df1…
06-21 09:41:13	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0xed06f1…
06-21 09:22:13	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x378a13…
06-21 09:10:49	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	725	99¢	$720	0xb585a1…