Oval-Treaty — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$173

Unrealized P&L

+$519

Hit rate

88.5%

Resolved

Trades

319

lifetime

Volume

$65.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$206

Open exposure

$11.3K

3 positions

First seen

2026-03-29

last 07-21 01:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

80% 100% +$10

Other

18% 86% $-183

Tech

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

42 active days in 12wk • peak 29 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	+12,071	$10,573	92¢	$11.0K	+$472	07-03 22:25
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+1,500	$225	18¢	$270	+$45	06-07 07:35
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Yes	-30	$-12	34¢	$-10	+$2	05-29 18:38

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	10	$16.9K	14,071	5,000	+9,071	open	—	07-03 22:25
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	1	$8.0K	8,016	0	+8,016	open	—	03-31 10:49
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	15	$6.1K	6,169	0	+6,169	open	—	04-26 00:58
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	5	$5.9K	3,000	3,000	+0	open	—	04-17 14:57
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	12	$5.5K	2,617	3,000	-383	open	—	06-28 11:27
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	7	$2.9K	2,920	0	+2,920	open	—	06-21 12:19
putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	1	$587	600	0	+600	open	—	07-18 03:12
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	20	$531	903	25,480	-24,577	open	—	06-30 16:00
Will Germany be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	2	$495	500	0	+500	open	—	05-16 17:59
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	2	$436	450	0	+450	open	—	04-08 13:22
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	1	$392	400	0	+400	open	—	05-07 07:31
putin out as president of russia by september 30 2026	2	$385	400	0	+400	open	—	07-21 01:48
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	3	$381	400	0	+400	open	—	04-07 15:32
will doly begum win the by election for the seat of scarborough southwest in the house of commons of canada	1	$355	360	0	+360	open	—	04-04 08:36
ukraine signs peace deal with russia by august 31 20260619003108240	4	$347	385	0	+385	open	—	07-01 18:00
Will Germany be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	2	$346	350	0	+350	open	—	05-15 19:27
Will Lithuania be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	2	$334	337	0	+337	open	—	05-16 18:52
Will Finland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	1	$299	300	0	+300	Yes	+$1	05-05 21:44
Will Greece advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	2	$298	300	0	+300	Yes	+$2	05-05 21:44
will the bank of korea make no change to the base rate after the april meeting	3	$298	300	0	+300	open	—	04-04 16:21
Will United Kingdom be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	2	$297	300	0	+300	open	—	05-16 15:25
putin out as president of russia by july 31 2026	1	$297	300	0	+300	open	—	07-08 07:26
Netanyahu out by April 30?	1	$296	300	0	+300	open	—	04-09 16:17
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	6	$296	300	0	+300	open	—	04-07 15:51
Will Israel advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	2	$296	300	0	+300	Yes	+$4	05-06 18:39
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$295	300	0	+300	open	—	04-07 13:39
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?	4	$295	200	200	+0	open	—	04-08 07:18
Masoud Pezeshkian out by April 30?	1	$294	300	0	+300	open	—	04-09 16:19
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?	2	$293	300	0	+300	open	—	04-06 17:50
russia x ukraine ceasefire by june 30 2026 631	1	$284	286	0	+286	open	—	06-26 11:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 01:48:58	putin out as president of russia by september 30 2026	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x1968de…
07-20 21:08:07	putin out as president of russia by september 30 2026	No	BUY	395	96¢	$380	0x8d6f34…
07-19 18:24:43	trump meets with putin by december 31	Yes	SELL	79	31¢	$24	0x37fbd3…
07-19 06:45:43	trump meets with putin by december 31	Yes	SELL	21	31¢	$7	0xcebffa…
07-18 03:12:03	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	No	BUY	600	98¢	$587	0xafb96f…
07-16 02:57:26	putin and zelenskyy shake hands by august 31	No	BUY	26	99¢	$25	0xf9c4b2…
07-15 10:40:23	putin and zelenskyy shake hands by august 31	No	BUY	32	99¢	$31	0x43da13…
07-15 07:11:26	putin and zelenskyy shake hands by august 31	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xc455f0…
07-08 07:26:37	putin out as president of russia by july 31 2026	No	BUY	300	99¢	$297	0xc37ca2…
07-03 22:25:14	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,000	90¢	$1,800	0x448080…
07-02 09:01:28	trump meets with putin by december 31	Yes	BUY	23	37¢	$8	0x7d5122…
07-02 09:01:13	trump meets with putin by december 31	Yes	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0xd71c2c…
07-02 09:01:11	trump meets with putin by december 31	Yes	BUY	16	38¢	$6	0x60aad2…
07-02 09:00:58	trump meets with putin by december 31	Yes	BUY	34	38¢	$13	0x03e063…
07-02 07:30:38	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9,000	88¢	$7,920	0x183d62…
07-01 18:00:52	ukraine signs peace deal with russia by august 31 20260619003108240	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x4107c0…
07-01 15:00:52	ukraine signs peace deal with russia by august 31 20260619003108240	No	BUY	150	90¢	$135	0x23a950…
07-01 14:55:47	ukraine signs peace deal with russia by august 31 20260619003108240	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x19977e…
07-01 10:26:26	ukraine signs peace deal with russia by august 31 20260619003108240	No	BUY	175	90¢	$158	0xc2cf8f…
06-30 21:10:19	Russian strike on Poland by June 30?	Yes	SELL	51	0¢	$0	0xc28b70…
06-30 20:17:07	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	58	85¢	$49	0xa9352b…
06-30 16:02:04	Russian strike on Poland by June 30?	Yes	SELL	31	0¢	$0	0xd10881…
06-30 16:00:05	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18,088	0¢	$22	0xde4630…
06-28 11:32:23	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,400	88¢	$2,992	0xa3a151…
06-28 11:27:19	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2,999	100¢	$2,993	0xd97861…
06-28 09:41:17	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	15	87¢	$13	0x4c8a47…
06-28 09:03:29	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	582	87¢	$507	0x6e79f1…
06-28 08:52:07	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	596	87¢	$519	0x3e6499…
06-28 08:40:16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xb4bc04…
06-27 13:16:10	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	81	89¢	$72	0xf58b16…
06-27 13:07:04	Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	No	SELL	72	100¢	$72	0x17c5f9…
06-27 13:05:16	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	339	89¢	$302	0x264647…
06-26 11:44:07	russia x ukraine ceasefire by june 30 2026 631	No	BUY	286	99¢	$284	0xe8705d…
06-21 12:19:58	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	1,884	99¢	$1,871	0x608e02…
06-21 12:00:29	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xd3e71b…
06-21 10:06:13	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xb15df1…
06-21 09:41:13	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0xed06f1…
06-21 09:22:13	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x378a13…
06-21 09:10:49	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	725	99¢	$720	0xb585a1…
06-14 18:00:28	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	407	2¢	$10	0xb55b22…
06-14 05:02:43	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	500	95¢	$475	0x11589e…
06-13 12:30:09	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x679ba1…
06-13 11:59:48	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x5ac69e…
06-13 11:30:28	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	9	97¢	$8	0xf8b275…
06-13 10:42:49	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4	97¢	$4	0x15ad73…
06-12 20:47:49	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,600	97¢	$1,552	0x424938…
06-09 14:27:31	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	125	93¢	$116	0x86a509…
06-09 12:18:28	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x75ed57…
06-09 10:22:06	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	328	93¢	$305	0xae2870…
06-09 06:32:24	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	37	93¢	$34	0xf65ae7…
06-08 01:00:16	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	300	99¢	$296	0x772646…
06-07 07:35:49	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	201	15¢	$30	0xeea519…
06-05 04:14:51	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	289	15¢	$43	0xb63893…
06-05 02:58:34	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0x64e546…
06-04 21:39:27	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0x0af8bf…
06-04 08:30:03	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	294	15¢	$44	0x2effa4…
06-04 08:02:55	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0x7129c6…
06-04 07:50:15	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0x549a60…
06-04 07:48:21	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	15¢	$1	0x480078…
06-03 13:33:25	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	123	15¢	$18	0x104221…
06-03 12:01:53	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	15¢	$9	0xdf2c24…
06-03 11:26:39	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0xb10fd2…
06-03 09:07:51	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	235	15¢	$35	0x9df420…
06-03 07:52:08	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	276	15¢	$41	0x020891…
06-01 11:41:16	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	175	4¢	$6	0x7aba6c…
06-01 11:37:27	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	728	4¢	$26	0x5fe69a…
05-31 10:14:30	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	115	5¢	$6	0xe3e6c3…
05-31 10:11:28	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x555e24…
05-31 10:09:50	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xaaf3a7…
05-31 10:08:54	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x3e95d0…
05-31 10:08:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x391b6f…
05-31 10:05:59	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	115	6¢	$7	0x54dcbd…
05-31 07:05:25	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	472	6¢	$29	0x635570…
05-31 07:04:48	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	173	6¢	$11	0xa65aa3…
05-30 10:18:03	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	232	71¢	$165	0xff4894…
05-29 22:30:03	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	39¢	$20	0xfe38fd…
05-29 19:14:51	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	190	6¢	$11	0xa8a1e6…
05-29 18:38:18	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	40¢	$12	0x5e197c…
05-29 14:08:34	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	422	6¢	$26	0x5a6948…
05-29 13:50:36	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	72	6¢	$4	0x2d7d83…
05-29 13:46:34	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	241	6¢	$15	0x139c7b…
05-29 13:45:59	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	157	6¢	$10	0xffc8d5…
05-29 13:34:49	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	550	8¢	$42	0x71b3ce…
05-29 07:18:41	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	260	6¢	$16	0xade634…
05-29 07:18:13	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	110	6¢	$7	0xcc29cf…
05-29 07:17:54	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	130	7¢	$9	0xc5b172…
05-29 07:02:12	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,892	7¢	$124	0x70d314…
05-29 07:00:33	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,003	7¢	$143	0x106e7d…
05-29 06:59:49	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	84	8¢	$6	0xc462e1…
05-20 14:32:42	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	SELL	185	3¢	$5	0xc3000a…
05-17 20:31:45	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	BUY	27	34¢	$9	0x5a2b61…
05-17 20:31:36	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x8f6511…
05-17 20:31:34	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xdf0c36…
05-17 20:31:33	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	BUY	8	34¢	$3	0x8ee33b…
05-17 20:31:33	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x701a35…
05-17 20:31:31	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	BUY	28	34¢	$9	0x0e3fda…
05-17 17:43:22	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0x066010…
05-17 16:06:23	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0x8aca95…
05-17 16:05:57	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0x0cbfb9…
05-17 15:56:00	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0xed280e…