Oval-Treaty — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$443

Unrealized P&L

+$1.52K

Hit rate

93.8%

Resolved

142

Trades

882

lifetime

Volume

$288.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$327

Open exposure

$23.5K

11 positions

First seen

2026-03-29

last 10-27 07:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 38 days

Categories

Politics

87% 88% -$344

Other

9% 92% -$130

Pop-Culture

3% 100% +$0

Tech

0% 60% +$31

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

60 active days in 12wk • peak 70 trades/day

Open positions (11) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	No	+10,289	$10,062	99¢	$10.2K	+$150	10-25 13:42
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	No	+6,298	$6,253	100¢	$6.3K	+$23	10-25 21:57
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	-4,000	-$4,978	98¢	$-3922	+$1,056	10-19 11:45
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	+1,950	$1,867	99¢	$1.9K	+$58	10-27 07:49
Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	No	+799	$765	96¢	$769	+$3	10-26 14:52
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	-1,000	-$430	36¢	$-355	+$75	07-27 13:47
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Yes	-30	-$12	24¢	$-7	+$5	05-29 18:38
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+1,228	$111	0¢	$4	-$107	10-20 15:54
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	+99	$4	3¢	$3	-$1	10-26 17:43
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	No	-20	-$16	12¢	$-2	+$14	06-28 14:37
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-1	-$246	15¢	$-0	+$246	08-21 21:53

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	84	$104.9K	53,440	57,440	-4,000	open	—	10-19 11:45
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	30	$19.0K	10,703	8,753	+1,950	open	—	10-27 07:49
Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?	47	$17.6K	14,418	3,328	+11,090	No	+$94	09-25 15:58
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	20	$14.6K	12,603	2,315	+10,289	open	—	10-25 13:42
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	15	$14.2K	13,619	600	+13,019	Yes	+$11	09-20 20:46
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	26	$9.4K	7,864	1,565	+6,298	open	—	10-25 21:57
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	1	$8.0K	8,016	0	+8,016	No	+$8	03-31 10:49
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	27	$7.5K	7,595	0	+7,595	No	+$145	06-21 12:19
Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	67	$7.3K	3,664	3,726	-61	No	+$64	09-20 20:56
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	15	$6.1K	6,169	0	+6,169	No	+$92	04-26 00:58
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	5	$5.9K	3,000	3,000	+0	No	+$25	04-17 14:57
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	16	$5.9K	6,000	0	+6,000	No	+$120	09-24 17:18
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	15	$5.9K	3,000	3,000	+0	No	+$115	06-28 11:27
Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?	13	$5.4K	3,218	2,218	+1,000	No	+$27	08-26 11:20
Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?	13	$5.1K	5,172	0	+5,172	No	+$114	09-12 18:15
will russia announce a new forced mobilization by september 30 2026	2	$4.9K	4,939	0	+4,939	No	+$10	09-30 12:36
Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	13	$3.6K	2,953	986	+1,967	No	-$60	09-20 20:31
Will New People (NL) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	17	$3.6K	1,804	1,804	+0	No	+$28	08-08 13:32
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	38	$2.8K	6,238	6,239	-1	open	—	08-21 21:53
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the June Meeting?	2	$2.5K	2,535	0	+2,535	No	+$5	06-17 17:12
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	30	$2.5K	35,156	35,290	-134	No	-$997	06-30 16:00
putin and zelenskyy shake hands by august 31	20	$2.0K	1,095	924	+171	No	+$12	08-13 00:31
Will Yabloko win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	6	$1.5K	1,501	46	+1,456	No	+$56	09-12 12:14
Will United Russia (ER) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	11	$1.4K	700	700	+0	No	+$15	08-03 11:11
Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	4	$1.2K	1,004	205	+799	open	—	10-26 14:52
russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by august 31 2026	8	$1.0K	1,033	0	+1,033	No	+$26	08-21 19:13
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	20	$990	536	536	+0	No	+$31	09-15 06:15
Will United Russia (ER) win the fourth-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	7	$727	740	0	+740	No	-$3	09-17 15:30
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	5	$710	773	0	+773	No	+$63	09-18 12:19
ukraine signs peace deal with russia by august 31 20260619003108240	6	$685	729	0	+729	No	+$44	08-21 03:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 07:49:54	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	450	99¢	$444	0x04454c…
10-27 06:58:57	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	963	99¢	$949	0x452fb7…
10-27 05:43:45	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	500	98¢	$491	0x4ce329…
10-27 05:42:27	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	98¢	$982	0xd5d079…
10-27 03:41:51	Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by December 31?	No	SELL	144	99¢	$143	0xe11d6d…
10-26 22:57:05	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,037	99¢	$1,022	0x36dd8b…
10-26 17:43:56	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	BUY	57	4¢	$2	0x3ce061…
10-26 17:37:51	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	4¢	$1	0x3828bd…
10-26 14:52:57	Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	No	SELL	205	96¢	$197	0x656de9…
10-25 22:08:02	Will Kanye West meet with Vladimir Putin by October 31?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x754428…
10-25 21:57:36	Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	No	BUY	69	99¢	$68	0xcf5ba3…
10-25 21:30:44	Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	No	BUY	82	100¢	$81	0xbf3126…
10-25 19:48:38	Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	No	BUY	97	99¢	$97	0xe90573…
10-25 16:51:02	Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xe636be…
10-25 14:37:54	Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x589638…
10-25 14:37:45	Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	No	BUY	874	96¢	$838	0xab1813…
10-25 14:32:56	Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	No	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x67fa57…
10-25 14:19:59	Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xa49a5a…
10-25 13:42:20	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	99¢	$989	0x46c4a4…
10-25 09:10:32	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	652	98¢	$640	0x310134…
10-24 23:54:27	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,500	98¢	$1,470	0x8ff803…
10-24 23:40:27	Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x93b68a…
10-24 18:41:57	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,000	98¢	$1,954	0x7b04d2…
10-23 13:41:17	Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	No	BUY	561	100¢	$558	0x301947…
10-23 10:02:06	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	SELL	12	84¢	$10	0xaa19e8…
10-23 10:02:05	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	SELL	6	83¢	$5	0x59b028…
10-23 09:48:48	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xa2b28c…
10-23 09:48:48	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x946699…
10-23 09:47:06	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x16f931…
10-22 15:01:38	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,409	98¢	$1,375	0x98c6c6…
10-22 15:01:12	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,430	98¢	$1,396	0x31e54d…
10-22 15:01:11	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	237	98¢	$231	0x5d7593…
10-21 12:23:14	Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	No	BUY	493	100¢	$491	0x8cab7b…
10-21 10:46:29	Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	No	BUY	943	100¢	$939	0xb797da…
10-21 09:14:23	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,961	97¢	$1,899	0x39df6d…
10-21 07:50:26	Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0xcb74f1…
10-21 03:17:23	Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x064542…
10-20 15:54:03	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	131	2¢	$3	0x1b9d56…
10-20 10:26:18	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	242	2¢	$6	0x4b41db…
10-20 07:52:34	Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	No	SELL	1,565	100¢	$1,560	0xf61919…
10-20 06:54:50	Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x938b9c…
10-20 06:40:16	Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	No	BUY	3,105	100¢	$3,093	0x19d2b1…
10-19 21:36:13	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,538	98¢	$1,500	0x6a7f84…
10-19 20:18:11	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,880	98¢	$1,842	0xe986e9…
10-19 18:39:15	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	880	98¢	$867	0x64f3fc…
10-19 12:13:30	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	769	98¢	$754	0x0dd27b…
10-19 11:45:17	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,624	98¢	$1,587	0x1a989f…
10-18 15:09:57	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	500	97¢	$487	0xfbb134…
10-18 01:41:29	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	163	98¢	$159	0xdc0f75…
10-17 21:58:00	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	98¢	$9	0x431759…
10-17 18:33:57	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,624	97¢	$1,569	0xf6655c…
10-17 18:08:38	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	597	98¢	$584	0xca7fe3…
10-17 11:33:12	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,500	98¢	$1,467	0x0fa9a7…
10-17 07:03:05	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	315	98¢	$309	0xed86f7…
10-17 07:00:18	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,500	98¢	$1,467	0xeac81c…
10-17 06:57:47	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,624	97¢	$1,582	0x58a49e…
10-17 06:54:29	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xc5f73e…
10-16 21:19:24	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	232	98¢	$228	0x9ebb40…
10-16 21:19:23	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	65	98¢	$64	0x7353fd…
10-16 20:05:17	Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	No	BUY	276	99¢	$273	0x92272e…
10-16 13:21:55	Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	No	BUY	970	99¢	$958	0x2afe0b…
10-16 12:55:15	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	98¢	$975	0x2b688a…
10-16 09:35:03	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	99¢	$986	0x125087…
10-16 06:37:40	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	98¢	$985	0x2c2bf5…
10-16 06:31:52	Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	No	BUY	319	99¢	$315	0x9ea2f5…
10-15 22:47:16	Kanye West arrested in Russia by October 31?	No	SELL	304	100¢	$303	0x6d81a6…
10-13 21:08:54	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	321	96¢	$309	0x745c2f…
10-13 20:54:15	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	179	96¢	$171	0xb11c76…
10-13 20:45:34	Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	No	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x0283f5…
10-13 19:47:57	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	500	96¢	$480	0x55657c…
10-13 18:59:28	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	500	96¢	$480	0x65cd2e…
10-13 15:23:43	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	500	97¢	$486	0x01be61…
10-13 06:35:05	Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	No	BUY	322	99¢	$318	0x035042…
10-13 05:30:00	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,000	96¢	$2,883	0xb30283…
10-13 04:51:51	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xb30eb6…
10-13 03:40:21	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x765c75…
10-13 02:25:06	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	657	97¢	$636	0x6b831c…
10-12 16:21:17	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0x5bce97…
10-12 16:16:56	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	97¢	$194	0xbe9908…
10-12 16:16:48	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	151	97¢	$146	0xb30a1c…
10-12 16:16:48	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	600	97¢	$580	0x221c31…
10-11 15:47:57	Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x137721…
10-11 13:38:33	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	886	98¢	$865	0xeaa341…
10-11 13:33:51	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	43	96¢	$42	0x94f21d…
10-11 07:13:32	Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x0b5db6…
10-10 20:40:36	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	98¢	$1,954	0x930690…
10-10 19:34:55	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	136	98¢	$133	0x10e9e3…
10-10 18:27:31	Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x6eb033…
10-10 16:11:19	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	55	98¢	$53	0x429913…
10-10 15:42:51	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0xbead89…
10-10 14:32:09	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	768	98¢	$751	0xe1a776…
10-10 12:34:00	Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xb62862…
10-10 07:50:19	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	32	96¢	$31	0xcdd9c3…
10-10 07:03:30	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x5f0611…
10-09 22:58:46	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	998	98¢	$976	0x775a01…
10-09 22:47:34	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	56	95¢	$54	0x0ccd35…
10-09 21:56:07	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0x0ea894…
10-09 21:33:23	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	9,346	98¢	$9,113	0xb8b640…
10-09 21:33:07	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x2ca536…
10-09 20:08:41	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	25	95¢	$24	0xc11432…