Kaleidoscopic-Warming — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

809

lifetime

Volume

$7.41K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$12

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 07-20 22:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

51% 100% +$2

Crypto

21% 100% +$0

Politics

15% 100% +$1

Sports

10% 100% +$1

Tech

3% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

59 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?	No		+11	$10	92¢	$10	+$0	06-03 14:24
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes		-57	$-2	4¢	$-2	+$0	06-12 20:59

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
spx opens up or down on april 2 2026	1	$124	124	0	+124	open	—	04-02 12:31
will the us next strike iran on january 23 2026 et 724	2	$114	59	59	+0	open	—	01-24 00:00
will the bank of brazil decrease the selic rate after march 2026 meeting	3	$111	124	0	+124	open	—	03-17 11:36
spx opens up or down on june 8 2026	1	$100	100	0	+100	open	—	06-08 12:32
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	1	$100	101	0	+101	open	—	05-15 22:48
will bitcoin reach 70k on june 3	1	$100	100	0	+100	open	—	06-03 20:54
spx opens up or down on april 8 2026	1	$90	90	0	+90	open	—	04-08 10:20
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 12?	1	$80	82	0	+82	Down	+$2	05-12 11:24
lal mal rea 2026 04 04 mal	2	$63	65	0	+65	open	—	04-04 16:11
no change in the selic rate after bank of brazils march 2026 meeting	2	$63	40	40	+0	open	—	03-13 18:20
will atltico madrid reach the uefa champions league quarter finals	1	$61	62	0	+62	open	—	03-18 20:21
lal mal rea 2026 04 04 rea	1	$60	63	0	+63	open	—	04-04 15:59
will gold gc hit low 4600 by end of february 292 259 212 256 398 758 656 625 549 536	2	$56	38	38	+0	open	—	02-19 12:35
us strikes iran by january 18 2026 991	3	$56	43	38	+5	open	—	01-17 14:13
us strikes iran by january 17 2026 625	2	$54	39	39	+0	open	—	01-15 14:02
nothing ever happens khamenei	3	$53	133	26	+107	open	—	02-18 19:35
spx opens up or down on april 7 2026	1	$50	52	0	+52	open	—	04-07 11:57
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 11-17?	1	$50	50	0	+50	open	—	05-17 15:04
will bitcoin dip to 62k on july 17	3	$49	50	0	+50	open	—	07-17 21:27
xagusd up or down on july 6 2026	2	$48	49	0	+49	open	—	07-06 20:03
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	3	$48	30	25	+5	open	—	01-29 11:37
usisrael strike on fordow nuclear facility by march 31 388	1	$46	47	0	+47	open	—	03-31 22:58
will the weeknd have the second greatest number of monthly spotify listeners this month	1	$45	45	0	+45	open	—	03-29 20:36
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	4	$44	25	25	+0	open	—	02-04 20:21
lal rea gir 2026 04 10 gir	1	$43	44	0	+44	open	—	04-10 20:15
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	3	$41	13	33	-20	open	—	01-28 12:49
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	3	$40	21	21	+0	open	—	01-21 23:18
epl sun tot 2026 04 12 tot	2	$40	40	0	+40	open	—	04-12 14:49
fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	4	$35	52	31	+21	open	—	06-29 23:23
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$33	39	13	+26	open	—	06-25 21:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 15:54:39	spx up or down on july 21 2026	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x457015…
07-21 15:54:12	rut up or down on july 21 2026	Up	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x1048be…
07-21 14:38:51	ethereum up or down on july 21 2026	Up	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x7356bf…
07-21 14:38:04	bitcoin up or down on july 21 2026	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xc61482…
07-20 22:41:04	will ethereum reach 1950 on july 20	No	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0x934812…
07-20 22:17:52	will ethereum reach 2050 on july 20	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xf70f05…
07-20 22:14:10	chicago air quality index below 100 by july 19 2026 20260717130414630	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x83ffea…
07-20 22:09:04	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 18 20260716224448964	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x95a1ef…
07-20 22:07:48	bitcoin above 70k on july 22 2026	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x749dc0…
07-20 22:06:42	will bitcoin dip to 63k on july 20	No	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0x501c86…
07-20 18:56:39	spy closes above 740 on july 20 2026	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xd2789f…
07-20 18:55:54	xagusd up or down on july 20 2026	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xff4847…
07-20 14:42:55	will bitcoin reach 67k on july 20	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x29943d…
07-20 14:38:24	will bitcoin reach 67k on july 20	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xf46c51…
07-20 14:35:27	bitcoin above 66k on july 20 2026	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xc3d526…
07-19 14:07:57	f1 belgian grand prix driver podium verstappen 2026 07 19	No	SELL	5	18¢	$1	0xf817e3…
07-19 14:04:15	f1 belgian grand prix driver podium norris 2026 07 19	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xf709e7…
07-19 14:01:48	f1 belgian grand prix driver podium hamilton 2026 07 19	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x2a0847…
07-19 13:57:58	f1 belgian grand prix driver podium verstappen 2026 07 19	No	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x005c0a…
07-19 13:50:36	f1 belgian grand prix driver podium leclerc 2026 07 19	Yes	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x8cbaec…
07-19 13:41:40	f1 belgian grand prix driver podium hadjar 2026 07 19	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x40f912…
07-19 13:35:22	f1 belgian grand prix driver podium lindblad 2026 07 19	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x9b4246…
07-19 13:25:39	f1 belgian grand prix red flag 2026 07 19	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x85d54f…
07-19 13:17:36	f1 belgian grand prix driver podium norris 2026 07 19	No	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x44b255…
07-19 13:06:00	f1 belgian grand prix driver podium russell 2026 07 19	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x2a2df7…
07-19 13:03:45	will bitcoin reach 66k on july 19	No	BUY	10	96¢	$9	0x0531d0…
07-19 12:48:10	will bitcoin reach 66k on july 19	No	BUY	0	96¢	$0	0x950516…
07-18 21:22:28	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 goals harry kane gte3	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x6f311e…
07-18 21:22:13	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 goals jude bellingham gte3	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xcdc422…
07-18 21:21:55	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 total 8pt5	Under	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x722114…
07-18 21:20:34	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 extra time	No	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0x6f6dd1…
07-18 21:18:54	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team total home 1pt5	Under	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x9cc40c…
07-18 21:14:54	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 total 6pt5	Under	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0xd801bb…
07-18 21:01:45	will lionel messi score 11 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260701232523891	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x6b2813…
07-18 17:51:28	per1 cdm ccu 2026 07 18 total 5pt5	Under	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x23872b…
07-18 17:30:49	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x92b9a8…
07-18 17:29:51	will ethereum reach 2000 in july 2026	No	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x452fc0…
07-18 16:48:15	will ethereum dip to 1700 on july 18	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x529c17…
07-18 15:31:28	ethereum up or down on july 18 2026	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x700676…
07-18 15:31:07	xrp up or down on july 18 2026	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x01159a…
07-18 15:15:10	will bitcoin dip to 62k on july 18	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6e0772…
07-18 15:13:37	bitcoin up or down on july 18 2026	Up	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x496c4c…
07-18 14:21:33	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 total 5pt5	Under	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x8b39f8…
07-17 21:28:01	will bitcoin reach 66k on july 17	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x92d3db…
07-17 21:27:43	will bitcoin dip to 62k on july 17	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xbf3c6d…
07-17 19:59:34	will bitcoin reach 66k on july 17	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xb8c8de…
07-17 19:59:25	will bitcoin dip to 62k on july 17	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x0b98b1…
07-17 19:59:09	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 17 2026 20260708165455692	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x1258ec…
07-17 19:23:21	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x324328…
07-17 19:22:54	will the next claude opus model be released by july 17 2026 534	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x54338a…
07-17 19:21:30	will bitcoin dip to 62k on july 17	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xf083bd…
07-17 19:21:09	spcx above 120 on july 17 2026	Yes	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x136fda…
07-17 17:26:57	will coin dip to 152 50 by july 13 2026	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x3c519e…
07-17 17:26:18	will spy dip to 740 by july 13 2026	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xee9489…
07-17 16:32:33	iran military action against a gulf state on july 17 20260708212322942	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x61756f…
07-17 16:32:12	will nvda dip to 196 by july 13 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7d2175…
07-17 14:47:03	bitcoin above 64k on july 17 2026	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x1893f9…
07-17 12:45:19	bitcoin up or down on july 17 2026	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x26a195…
07-17 12:44:54	ethereum up or down on july 17 2026	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x0a3cdd…
07-16 23:25:55	will bitcoin reach 65k on july 16	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xb90067…
07-16 23:21:23	will bitcoin dip to 62k on july 16	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xb36122…
07-16 23:20:49	will ethereum reach 2100 on july 16	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x4fa5ff…
07-16 23:20:31	will ethereum reach 2000 on july 16	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2f9200…
07-16 23:19:38	bra2 crb nau 2026 07 16 total 5pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc1ae45…
07-16 23:17:43	will bitcoin reach 65k on july 16	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xaec103…
07-16 23:13:49	bra bot san 2026 07 16 total 5pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x4be315…
07-16 16:35:25	xagusd up or down on july 16 2026	Down	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x4e365d…
07-16 16:33:52	will bitcoin reach 66k on july 16	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xcb68e0…
07-16 16:33:17	nvda up or down on july 16 2026	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x283038…
07-16 16:32:23	xauusd up or down on july 16 2026	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x7cb484…
07-16 16:07:13	spy closes above 760 on july 16 2026	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x2760a7…
07-16 16:04:17	spy closes above 760 on july 16 2026	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x55f3a9…
07-16 16:03:04	will bitcoin reach 66k on july 16	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xefff94…
07-16 15:59:25	wti closes above 85 on july 16 2026	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x116819…
07-16 15:57:13	wti closes above 84 on july 16 2026	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xcf46ae…
07-16 14:48:50	bitcoin above 64k on july 16 2026	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x9c0057…
07-15 23:23:07	tsm quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 16 2026 3pt88	Yes	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x36ed78…
07-15 23:22:02	will ethereum reach 2000 on july 15	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x8f7e8a…
07-15 23:19:46	iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6b0a69…
07-15 23:17:25	will bitcoin reach 66k on july 15	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x028abd…
07-15 23:16:46	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x326798…
07-15 21:13:25	will bitcoin reach 66k on july 15	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xf88bda…
07-15 20:48:43	will kylian mbappe score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup copy	No	SELL	3	59¢	$2	0x526efe…
07-15 20:30:50	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 corners total 6pt5	Over	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0xb28725…
07-15 19:29:35	will lamine yamal score 4 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610223932024	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xde39a3…
07-15 19:16:22	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 total 5pt5	Under	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xbe69c8…
07-15 19:13:20	spy closes above 760 on july 15 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8270f9…
07-15 13:43:56	bitcoin above 64k on july 15 2026	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x83b224…
07-15 13:43:16	ethereum up or down on july 15 2026	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x7656bb…
07-15 13:39:16	ethereum up or down on july 15 2026	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x7be99d…
07-14 21:52:53	will solana reach 80 on july 14	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xabef70…
07-14 21:52:22	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xcd265d…
07-14 21:51:59	iran successfully targets shipping on july 14	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xda267b…
07-14 21:51:04	iran military action against a gulf state on july 14 20260708212322939	Yes	BUY	10	95¢	$9	0x73367d…
07-14 21:08:58	will ethereum reach 1950 on july 14	No	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x1983cd…
07-14 21:07:59	will bitcoin reach 66k on july 14	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x4c9304…
07-14 20:56:41	will kylian mbappe score 11 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260701231444070	No	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x038c65…
07-14 20:56:13	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 total 7pt5	Under	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x4885db…
07-14 20:20:08	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	Spain	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x2b3588…
07-14 19:50:50	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 total 6pt5	Under	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x7b7301…