Moral-Fourths — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$298

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

89.7%

Resolved

115

Trades

288

lifetime

Volume

$44.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$154

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-24 03:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 48 days

Categories

Other

46% 92% +$63

Politics

32% 95% +$21

Crypto

15% 77% +$3

Tech

6% 83% +$0

Sports

1% 33% -$386

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-24).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
trump out as president by march 31	11	$4.6K	2,374	2,374	+0	No	+$7	03-02 15:35
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	10	$2.8K	1,410	1,410	+0	No	+$1	01-22 15:15
Block Street FDV above $50M one day after launch?	2	$2.2K	1,107	1,107	+0	Yes	+$1	03-06 09:56
gpt 5pt3 released by march 8 2026	2	$2.2K	1,105	1,105	+0	Yes	+$0	03-06 02:18
will japans january 2026 unemployment rate be 2pt7	3	$2.1K	1,069	1,069	+0	Yes	+$3	03-04 01:24
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	6	$2.0K	1,009	1,009	+0	Yes	+$0	02-16 03:45
will hillary say prince during her epstein testimony	2	$1.7K	875	875	+0	No	+$0	03-05 14:15
will hillary say island during her epstein testimony	2	$1.7K	875	875	+0	No	+$10	03-05 14:07
will ethereum reach 6000 in january 2026	40	$1.4K	704	704	+0	No	+$0	01-09 06:18
will olivia rodrigo release an album in 2025	4	$1.2K	600	600	+0	No	+$1	01-03 08:11
will the us next strike iran on february 26 2026 et	1	$1.1K	1,087	0	+1,087	No	+$1	03-04 09:53
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	8	$1.0K	530	522	+8	No	+$0	02-16 10:13
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	11	$937	473	473	+0	No	+$0	02-15 09:21
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	7	$870	443	443	+0	No	+$2	05-17 11:16
will hillary say president 5 times during her epstein testimony	2	$817	409	409	+0	No	+$0	03-04 07:47
Trump out as President by April 30?	6	$817	412	412	+0	No	+$1	04-23 16:51
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	2	$707	360	360	+0	Yes	+$1	01-23 13:43
will bitcoin dip to 40k in january 2026	4	$702	352	352	+0	No	+$0	01-09 16:14
will ethereum dip to 1000 in january 2026 651	3	$700	351	351	+0	No	+$0	01-07 13:27
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	8	$697	365	365	+0	Yes	-$18	03-01 02:58
will edgex launch a token in 2025	2	$697	349	349	+0	Yes	+$1	01-02 05:49
will wti reach 130 in july 2026	4	$594	619	193	+426	No	+$3	07-18 04:52
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	3	$567	292	276	+16	No	+$0	01-04 08:46
will bitcoin reach 130k in january 2026	4	$501	352	152	+200	No	+$1	01-11 06:12
gpt 5pt3 released by march 15 2026 733	2	$462	231	231	+0	Yes	+$0	03-05 11:06
will hillary say fbi during her epstein testimony	2	$461	231	231	+0	No	+$1	03-05 14:30
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 2 645 466 285 492	1	$442	443	0	+443	No	+$0	03-03 05:12
will usd reach 1pt7m iranian rials by february 28	2	$429	433	0	+433	Yes	+$4	03-01 14:25
will wti reach 120 in july 2026	2	$414	215	215	+0	No	+$2	07-24 03:53
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	2	$399	200	200	+0	No	+$0	06-03 21:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-24 03:53:33	will wti reach 120 in july 2026	No	SELL	215	97¢	$208	0xe5bbb6…
07-23 10:34:49	will wti reach 120 in july 2026	No	BUY	215	96¢	$206	0xadc986…
07-18 04:52:12	will wti reach 130 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	213	1¢	$2	0x4e6e9f…
07-14 04:14:22	will wti reach 130 in july 2026	No	BUY	213	98¢	$210	0x466982…
07-08 13:57:08	will wti reach 130 in july 2026	No	SELL	193	99¢	$192	0x28e494…
07-07 17:33:41	will wti reach 130 in july 2026	No	BUY	193	98¢	$190	0x63ac67…
07-05 13:37:17	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by july 31	No	SELL	111	99¢	$110	0x6c4f89…
06-27 12:14:44	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by july 31	No	BUY	111	99¢	$109	0x83c659…
06-27 12:14:04	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xd6130e…
06-27 12:13:02	Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x7a2c4a…
06-21 03:35:16	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	19	97¢	$18	0x32826f…
06-11 15:32:15	will wti reach 150 in june 2026 555	No	SELL	126	99¢	$125	0x590609…
06-10 09:53:49	will wti reach 150 in june 2026 555	Yes	BUY	80	2¢	$1	0x2402ec…
06-07 19:28:24	will wti reach 150 in june 2026 555	No	BUY	206	97¢	$200	0x223914…
06-04 12:37:42	Will US crude oil reserves fall to 275M by June 5?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$5	0x75dcbd…
06-03 21:24:13	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	100¢	$200	0x17cffd…
06-03 04:55:44	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$199	0xb59d8f…
05-31 14:17:37	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xfb99a6…
05-27 12:41:25	Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	No	BUY	180	99¢	$177	0xa6f222…
05-24 18:54:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?	No	SELL	40	99¢	$39	0xe72fb1…
05-23 20:57:19	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x8e92df…
05-23 20:43:45	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?	No	SELL	144	99¢	$143	0x3a2b55…
05-22 08:29:47	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?	No	BUY	185	98¢	$181	0xf8ecc8…
05-19 02:35:35	Will US crude oil reserves fall to 275M by June 5?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$5	0x0776b0…
05-19 02:34:34	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by June 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x040d8b…
05-18 08:12:11	Will "Disgusting" be said during the IEM Atlanta 2026 Grand Finals?	No	BUY	50	97¢	$48	0x4a13a3…
05-18 05:34:13	Will "Banana" be said 10+ times during the IEM Atlanta 2026 Grand Finals?	No	BUY	46	98¢	$45	0x27ffa1…
05-18 04:23:59	Will "Footstep" be said during the IEM Atlanta 2026 Grand Finals?	No	BUY	23	97¢	$22	0x46a038…
05-18 03:04:48	Will "Footstep" be said during the IEM Atlanta 2026 Grand Finals?	No	BUY	43	66¢	$28	0xf0fb60…
05-17 11:16:04	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	75	99¢	$74	0x0e2f57…
05-17 11:10:33	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xf52ae5…
05-17 11:06:39	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x628968…
05-17 10:44:11	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	151	99¢	$149	0xb2523b…
05-17 02:39:59	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	233	98¢	$229	0x1d346d…
05-15 12:41:12	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 15?	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0xa95ecb…
05-15 11:40:07	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	No	SELL	12	98¢	$12	0x75030c…
05-15 11:39:25	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	210	98¢	$206	0xdc010d…
05-15 00:59:18	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	210	98¢	$205	0x73531a…
05-14 05:17:46	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0xbfa39b…
05-14 05:15:15	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 15?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0xa77838…
05-14 05:13:58	Netanyahu out by May 31?	No	SELL	159	99¢	$157	0xbdd6d8…
05-13 05:11:34	Netanyahu out by May 31?	No	BUY	159	98¢	$156	0x672b44…
05-08 14:28:23	Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 50m?	Yes	BUY	6	97¢	$5	0x935361…
05-06 10:24:14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	SELL	161	99¢	$159	0x416a9b…
05-02 21:20:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	BUY	161	98¢	$158	0xf18e98…
05-02 05:22:48	Trump out as President by May 31?	No	SELL	160	99¢	$159	0xc243b9…
04-30 21:05:22	Trump out as President by May 31?	No	BUY	154	98¢	$150	0x1775cb…
04-30 15:38:44	Trump out as President by May 31?	No	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x591da3…
04-23 16:51:08	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	SELL	159	100¢	$158	0x42eb4b…
04-21 11:10:14	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	BUY	159	99¢	$158	0x6cedae…
04-20 07:54:28	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	SELL	158	99¢	$157	0xaacab6…
04-16 19:07:40	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	BUY	158	99¢	$157	0xb622cc…
04-13 05:03:53	will trump post make iran great again or miga on truth social this week	No	SELL	35	42¢	$15	0xe8ff22…
04-13 04:44:27	will trump post make iran great again or miga on truth social this week	No	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xa79005…
04-13 04:37:47	will trump post make iran great again or miga on truth social this week	No	BUY	30	20¢	$6	0x609ab5…
04-12 09:31:19	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	0	95¢	$0	0xd70599…
04-12 09:27:45	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	24	95¢	$22	0x00d32c…
04-12 08:47:45	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	31	95¢	$29	0xeb0577…
04-12 08:28:47	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x3fa0d3…
04-11 05:14:41	will construction be said during the next episode of the all in podcast 851	No	BUY	48	98¢	$47	0xc0084d…
04-09 21:51:27	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	57	95¢	$54	0xed9f75…
04-09 13:20:27	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	SELL	95	98¢	$94	0x540ae2…
04-07 16:54:45	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	BUY	95	98¢	$93	0x6b64ff…
04-07 03:38:41	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0xa9b6a0…
03-29 13:13:00	will crude oil cl settle at 60 in march	No	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0xcc841d…
03-29 13:12:26	hillary clinton charged by march 31	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x44a663…
03-29 13:11:02	AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026?	No	BUY	88	100¢	$88	0xbcb106…
03-29 13:09:40	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	28¢	$11	0x05ab59…
03-29 13:09:00	will trump visit china by march 31	No	SELL	142	100¢	$142	0x245e13…
03-26 08:48:07	will trump visit china by march 31	No	BUY	136	100¢	$136	0x36e2ed…
03-25 03:12:07	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	No	SELL	136	100¢	$135	0xe0d3d5…
03-24 15:05:39	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	No	BUY	136	99¢	$135	0x99e1f4…
03-24 09:15:37	will trump talk to nicols maduro in march 958	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x02d46b…
03-24 09:15:15	will russia test a nuclear weapon by march 31 2026	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xf3f3ab…
03-24 09:14:45	will trump visit china by march 31	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x6c2a6f…
03-24 09:13:09	will ethereum reach 3200 in march 2026	No	SELL	55	100¢	$55	0x7571ad…
03-22 21:01:59	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x3f8c68…
03-22 21:01:49	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	90	98¢	$88	0xc04630…
03-22 15:45:53	will ethereum reach 3200 in march 2026	No	BUY	58	99¢	$57	0xb973dd…
03-22 13:16:05	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x7dcd9e…
03-22 13:15:05	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0x6d2f5c…
03-19 11:54:37	will trump visit china by march 31	No	SELL	30	98¢	$30	0x373b82…
03-19 10:14:39	Katana FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x0aa7e1…
03-19 10:14:05	will trump visit china by march 31	No	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0x6430e4…
03-19 10:14:01	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x8c5a23…
03-16 01:51:27	will ai or artificial intelligence be said at the oscars	Yes	BUY	136	100¢	$136	0x8e1d50…
03-16 01:51:05	will iran strike israel on march 10	Yes	SELL	136	100¢	$135	0xb62674…
03-14 13:53:59	will iran strike israel on march 10	Yes	BUY	51	100¢	$51	0xb0b168…
03-14 13:53:53	will iran strike israel on march 10	Yes	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0x039657…
03-14 13:33:01	Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	SELL	150	100¢	$150	0xb4b3e7…
03-14 04:38:25	Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	BUY	157	100¢	$157	0x3694a8…
03-12 09:10:11	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	BUY	156	100¢	$156	0x09e146…
03-11 04:40:01	will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 7 339 656	No	BUY	156	100¢	$156	0x0a1c0f…
03-09 13:14:15	will the climate fund initiative be approved in switzerlands 8 march 2026 popular vote	No	BUY	157	100¢	$157	0x680214…
03-07 07:52:57	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	156	100¢	$156	0xcf7a07…
03-06 11:34:45	will chatgpt be back in as the 1 free app in the us apple store by march 5	No	BUY	156	100¢	$156	0xb3bfdb…
03-06 09:56:23	Block Street FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1,107	100¢	$1,106	0x772477…
03-06 03:13:09	Block Street FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1,107	100¢	$1,105	0x0272ea…
03-06 02:18:31	gpt 5pt3 released by march 8 2026	Yes	SELL	1,105	100¢	$1,104	0x641301…
03-05 14:32:25	gpt 5pt3 released by march 8 2026	Yes	BUY	1,105	100¢	$1,104	0x6358e8…