Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $530 on October 20?
Yes won
Total volume
$434
Trades
24
Unique wallets
11
Liquidity
$0
End date
2026-10-20
First seen
2026-10-20
last 10-20 19:59
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Not enough snapshot data yet — the snapshot daemon polls every 5 min.
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+18.9¢
(top1%: 94% YES on $157
vs crowd: 75% YES on $380)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 4 | $72 | $24 | +$48 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 3 | $197 | $0 | +$196 |
| 🐟 Fish | 1 | — | $32 | $32 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 3 | $16 | $39 | $23 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 5 | $147 | $10 | +$138 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 1 | $67 | — | +$67 |
| Median | 1 | $14 | — | +$14 |
| Below median | 2 | — | $71 | $71 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 1 | $2 | — | +$2 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 1 | $54 | $15 | +$39 |
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0xb607…60fb | Yes | +129 | $79 | $179 | 4 | 10-20 17:47 |
| (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | No | +107 | $15 | $15 | 2 | 10-20 19:59 |
| (anonymous) 0x16f0…2bad | No | +100 | $32 | $32 | 2 | 10-20 16:17 |
| Snarling-Pantology 0x982a…6851 | No | +88 | $4 | $4 | 2 | 10-20 17:47 |
| (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | Yes | +71 | $54 | $54 | 2 | 10-20 17:08 |
| (anonymous) 0xbcbf…75a9 | Yes | +68 | $67 | $67 | 1 | 10-20 19:59 |
| Naive-Lotion 0x1755…5aac | Yes | +26 | $16 | $16 | 1 | 10-20 14:30 |
| (anonymous) 0xcfa7…4206 | Yes | +23 | $14 | $14 | 1 | 10-20 13:38 |
| (anonymous) 0x6891…6bb9 | No | +20 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 10-20 16:27 |
| Voluminous-Lava 0x46b3…d3de | No | +10 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 10-20 19:59 |
| (anonymous) 0x6891…6bb9 | Yes | +4 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 10-20 16:01 |
| Threadbare-Verification 0xc654…55a8 | Yes | +3 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 10-20 13:40 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 19:59:59 | (anonymous) 0xbcbf…75a9 | Yes | BUY | 68 | 99¢ | $67 | 0x065871… |
| 10-20 19:59:59 | (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | No | BUY | 58 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x065871… |
| 10-20 19:59:59 | Voluminous-Lava 0x46b3…d3de | No | BUY | 10 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x065871… |
| 10-20 17:47:00 | (anonymous) 0xb607…60fb | Yes | SELL | 52 | 96¢ | $50 | 0x86a1ef… |
| 10-20 17:47:00 | (anonymous) 0xe014…ad33 | No | SELL | 137 | 3¢ | $5 | 0x86a1ef… |
| 10-20 17:47:00 | Snarling-Pantology 0x982a…6851 | No | BUY | 85 | 3¢ | $3 | 0x86a1ef… |
| 10-20 17:08:18 | (anonymous) 0xe014…ad33 | No | BUY | 48 | 20¢ | $10 | 0x36aaaa… |
| 10-20 17:08:18 | (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | Yes | BUY | 48 | 80¢ | $38 | 0x36aaaa… |
| 10-20 16:28:24 | (anonymous) 0xe014…ad33 | No | BUY | 36 | 28¢ | $10 | 0xef2586… |
| 10-20 16:28:24 | (anonymous) 0xb607…60fb | Yes | BUY | 36 | 72¢ | $26 | 0xef2586… |
| 10-20 16:27:53 | (anonymous) 0x6891…6bb9 | No | BUY | 20 | 29¢ | $6 | 0xbf3ad2… |
| 10-20 16:27:53 | (anonymous) 0xb607…60fb | Yes | BUY | 69 | 71¢ | $49 | 0xbf3ad2… |
| 10-20 16:27:53 | (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | No | BUY | 49 | 29¢ | $14 | 0xbf3ad2… |
| 10-20 16:17:02 | (anonymous) 0x16f0…2bad | No | BUY | 77 | 29¢ | $22 | 0x0e092d… |
| 10-20 16:17:02 | (anonymous) 0xb607…60fb | Yes | BUY | 77 | 71¢ | $54 | 0x0e092d… |
| 10-20 16:01:24 | (anonymous) 0xe014…ad33 | No | BUY | 27 | 35¢ | $10 | 0xcf4831… |
| 10-20 16:01:24 | (anonymous) 0x6891…6bb9 | Yes | BUY | 4 | 65¢ | $3 | 0xcf4831… |
| 10-20 16:01:24 | (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | Yes | BUY | 23 | 65¢ | $15 | 0xcf4831… |
| 10-20 14:30:45 | (anonymous) 0xe014…ad33 | No | BUY | 26 | 39¢ | $10 | 0xfd063e… |
| 10-20 14:30:45 | Naive-Lotion 0x1755…5aac | Yes | BUY | 26 | 61¢ | $16 | 0xfd063e… |
| 10-20 13:40:17 | Threadbare-Verification 0xc654…55a8 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 61¢ | $2 | 0x648a3b… |
| 10-20 13:40:17 | Snarling-Pantology 0x982a…6851 | No | BUY | 3 | 39¢ | $1 | 0x648a3b… |
| 10-20 13:38:35 | (anonymous) 0x16f0…2bad | No | BUY | 23 | 40¢ | $9 | 0x9c847a… |
| 10-20 13:38:35 | (anonymous) 0xcfa7…4206 | Yes | BUY | 23 | 60¢ | $14 | 0x9c847a… |