Moist-Lipstick — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$666

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

82.9%

Resolved

753

Trades

8,099

lifetime

Volume

$423.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$52

Open exposure

$69

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-27 12:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 204 days

Categories

Other

64% 79% -$2,227

Crypto

14% 89% +$666

Sports

12% 70% +$485

Politics

9% 76% +$339

Tech

0% 100% +$71

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 207 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	+44	$39	89¢	$39	$0	09-29 09:18
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	No	+25	$18	66¢	$16	-$2	10-21 12:49
Will T1 win Worlds 2026?	No	+17	$12	84¢	$14	+$2	10-25 00:31
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	+0	-$1	38¢	$0	+$1	08-10 18:18

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will bitcoin dip to 86k december 29 january 4	4	$8.5K	4,262	4,262	+0	No	+$21	01-05 02:05
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	39	$7.5K	4,185	4,585	-400	Yes	+$441	05-11 06:30
bitcoin above 86k on january 2	24	$7.0K	4,302	3,176	+1,126	Yes	+$404	01-02 09:42
over 15m committed to the ranger public sale	6	$6.6K	2,270	4,340	-2,070	Yes	+$1	01-10 10:23
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	25	$5.5K	2,935	3,846	-911	Yes	+$271	04-29 22:45
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	50	$4.3K	7,800	6,961	+839	No	+$427	07-14 15:18
bitcoin above 90k on january 6	3	$4.3K	4,312	0	+4,312	Yes	+$13	01-06 04:40
bitcoin above 90k on january 5	13	$4.0K	3,199	907	+2,293	Yes	+$22	01-05 14:30
will belgium reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149733	15	$3.9K	3,362	1,219	+2,143	No	+$84	07-09 15:24
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	25	$3.7K	2,099	1,839	+260	Yes	+$122	02-28 08:50
will bitcoin reach 96k december 29 january 4	3	$3.4K	3,400	0	+3,400	No	+$17	01-05 03:22
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	20	$3.4K	1,720	1,720	-0	No	+$65	07-12 03:41
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	17	$3.2K	2,200	2,200	+0	No	-$366	07-16 20:17
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?	47	$3.2K	1,682	1,682	+0	No	+$48	07-26 09:56
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	22	$3.2K	1,842	1,880	-37	No	+$27	03-13 13:12
will agibot have robot dancers at the 2026 spring festival gala	17	$3.1K	1,599	1,599	+0	No	+$74	02-16 13:01
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	22	$3.1K	2,440	2,440	+0	Yes	-$188	09-10 13:00
will paraguay reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134481	30	$3.0K	3,207	0	+3,207	No	+$234	07-04 17:49
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 31?	38	$2.9K	1,703	1,277	+426	No	+$33	07-31 08:45
fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 team to advance	7	$2.9K	3,721	0	+3,721	France	+$834	07-09 15:34
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	38	$2.9K	1,553	1,678	-125	No	+$159	05-07 13:14
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	14	$2.8K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	-$470	07-17 15:59
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	25	$2.8K	1,417	1,517	-100	No	+$83	04-01 00:46
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 24?	14	$2.7K	1,348	1,348	+0	No	+$9	07-24 15:16
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 10?	35	$2.6K	1,311	1,311	+0	No	+$8	05-10 09:23
lol tes ig1 2026 09 17	44	$2.6K	1,740	1,740	+0	Top Esports	-$272	09-17 12:48
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	64	$2.4K	2,236	1,876	+360	Anyone's Legend	+$33	09-12 13:32
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	20	$2.3K	1,400	1,726	-326	No	-$31	04-18 03:12
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	26	$2.2K	1,680	2,226	-546	Yes	-$425	03-31 09:19
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on September 6?	18	$2.2K	1,099	1,099	+0	No	+$3	09-06 07:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 13:28:03	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on October 28?	No	BUY	3	49¢	$2	0x0054a7…
10-27 12:30:47	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 28?	No	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0xc42125…
10-27 09:30:08	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on October 27?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x37e683…
10-27 07:40:53	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 27?	No	SELL	306	100¢	$306	0x5719ba…
10-27 07:20:59	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 27?	No	SELL	42	100¢	$42	0x7e03e5…
10-27 07:19:56	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 27?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x4431d7…
10-27 06:56:32	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on October 27?	No	BUY	19	94¢	$18	0xcb08a9…
10-27 06:24:23	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 27?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xf89d3c…
10-27 06:24:23	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 27?	No	BUY	60	100¢	$59	0xca9b9e…
10-27 06:24:23	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 27?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x351318…
10-27 06:15:29	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 27?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x26b20c…
10-27 06:12:45	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 27?	No	SELL	320	100¢	$319	0x060064…
10-27 06:11:21	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 27?	No	BUY	9	98¢	$9	0x347f0d…
10-27 06:11:02	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 27?	No	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0x4908c1…
10-27 05:53:45	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 27?	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0x0165e3…
10-27 05:48:08	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 27?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xd0550c…
10-27 05:44:30	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 27?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xa563ad…
10-27 05:40:57	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 27?	No	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0xb834be…
10-27 05:40:56	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 27?	No	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0xe8be88…
10-27 05:32:59	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 27?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x3bae74…
10-27 05:32:59	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 27?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$9	0x396c67…
10-27 05:32:08	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 27?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xb660d8…
10-27 05:32:02	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 27?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x1b9dd4…
10-27 05:30:06	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 27?	No	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0xd7c535…
10-27 05:29:45	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 27?	No	BUY	49	99¢	$49	0x62aa38…
10-27 05:27:56	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 27?	No	BUY	32	95¢	$30	0x7ea488…
10-27 04:32:50	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 27?	No	SELL	176	100¢	$176	0x1276f4…
10-27 04:31:54	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 27?	No	BUY	56	100¢	$56	0x39d5fb…
10-27 04:31:51	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 27?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x645351…
10-27 04:31:51	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 27?	No	BUY	82	100¢	$82	0x46c975…
10-27 04:28:57	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 27?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x2c9d8f…
10-27 04:28:56	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 27?	No	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0xba3179…
10-27 04:27:45	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 27?	No	SELL	10	86¢	$9	0xe9b96c…
10-27 04:27:29	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 27?	No	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x2b10f3…
10-27 04:25:32	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 27?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x26cdfd…
10-27 04:18:53	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 27?	No	SELL	39	100¢	$39	0x0c2e4f…
10-27 04:17:50	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 27?	No	SELL	34	94¢	$32	0xf891a7…
10-27 04:17:41	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 27?	No	SELL	30	94¢	$29	0xb50893…
10-27 04:15:59	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 27?	No	SELL	62	94¢	$58	0xfb750e…
10-27 04:13:09	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 27?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0x0e88c7…
10-27 04:11:45	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 27?	No	SELL	7	94¢	$6	0x23d7ad…
10-27 04:11:44	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 27?	No	SELL	8	94¢	$8	0xa1ca31…
10-27 04:11:42	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 27?	No	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0x0e34d8…
10-27 04:11:39	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 27?	No	SELL	40	94¢	$38	0xa669e3…
10-27 04:11:32	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 27?	No	SELL	17	94¢	$17	0x6f9185…
10-27 04:06:29	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 27?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xad25c4…
10-27 03:59:47	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 27?	No	SELL	18	98¢	$18	0x3fdf57…
10-27 03:58:51	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 27?	No	SELL	30	98¢	$30	0x704eb9…
10-27 03:58:08	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 27?	No	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0x25d64f…
10-27 03:40:47	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 27?	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0xbd5f46…
10-27 03:35:26	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 27?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x934858…
10-27 03:35:23	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 27?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xd8e682…
10-27 03:35:23	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 27?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x9852f5…
10-27 03:33:26	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 27?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xfd7102…
10-27 03:33:24	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 27?	No	SELL	60	100¢	$60	0xd757c4…
10-27 03:33:24	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 27?	No	SELL	29	100¢	$29	0x251718…
10-27 03:23:18	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 27?	No	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0xb18ff2…
10-27 03:18:20	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 27?	No	BUY	60	97¢	$58	0xe61b96…
10-27 03:18:15	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 27?	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0xb47072…
10-27 03:13:03	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 27?	No	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x506158…
10-27 03:12:17	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 27?	No	BUY	111	97¢	$108	0xde4bff…
10-27 03:09:14	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 27?	No	BUY	40	96¢	$38	0x4fbb17…
10-27 03:08:57	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 27?	No	BUY	0	94¢	$0	0x124dde…
10-27 03:00:41	Grizzlies vs. Jazz: O/U 232.5	Under	SELL	30	93¢	$28	0xb4e0af…
10-27 02:48:00	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 27?	No	SELL	5	64¢	$3	0xf2c27b…
10-27 02:47:59	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 27?	No	SELL	10	64¢	$6	0xb13b6b…
10-27 02:46:56	Grizzlies vs. Jazz: O/U 232.5	Under	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x10568b…
10-27 02:46:14	Grizzlies vs. Jazz: O/U 232.5	Under	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x9951ea…
10-27 02:37:15	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 27?	No	BUY	80	99¢	$79	0x59c8ff…
10-27 02:36:35	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 27?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xaaebd1…
10-27 02:35:05	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 27?	No	BUY	56	99¢	$56	0xc36112…
10-27 02:34:38	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 27?	No	SELL	15	76¢	$12	0xb86b56…
10-27 02:31:06	Pacers vs. Bucks: O/U 240.5	Under	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0xe12e37…
10-27 02:19:44	Pacers vs. Bucks: O/U 240.5	Under	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x312a6c…
10-27 02:11:21	Pacers vs. Bucks: O/U 240.5	Under	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xd3b75a…
10-27 01:59:39	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 27?	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x1f5715…
10-27 01:49:59	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 27?	No	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x5a6dd6…
10-27 01:49:59	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 27?	No	BUY	0	88¢	$0	0x30fe2e…
10-27 01:08:59	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 27?	No	SELL	14	79¢	$11	0x8efb5b…
10-27 00:52:53	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 27?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xd1cff7…
10-27 00:52:23	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 27?	No	BUY	11	80¢	$9	0x99bff6…
10-27 00:52:20	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 27?	No	BUY	8	80¢	$7	0xa4f1d9…
10-27 00:40:12	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 27?	No	BUY	14	84¢	$12	0x6bd869…
10-27 00:38:51	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 27?	No	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0xdb15c9…
10-27 00:38:51	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 27?	No	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x711580…
10-27 00:11:12	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 27?	No	BUY	14	78¢	$11	0xff6749…
10-26 16:13:18	Predict.fun FDV above $2.5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	30	86¢	$26	0xf12e94…
10-26 08:20:15	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on October 26?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x6def3d…
10-26 08:17:36	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on October 26?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xdc1376…
10-26 08:15:35	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on October 26?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x159cd0…
10-26 08:01:05	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on October 26?	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x7b720a…
10-26 08:00:50	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on October 26?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xec8cc8…
10-26 08:00:50	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on October 26?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xc1880b…
10-26 08:00:50	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on October 26?	No	SELL	48	100¢	$48	0x7020ed…
10-26 08:00:50	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on October 26?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x314363…
10-26 08:00:50	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on October 26?	No	SELL	41	100¢	$41	0x2eb72a…
10-26 08:00:50	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on October 26?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x0d9f3c…
10-26 07:48:00	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 26?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x1c20e7…
10-26 07:47:56	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 26?	No	SELL	29	100¢	$29	0x3d3a9e…
10-26 07:47:09	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 26?	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0xad7733…