Mundane-Accusation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

123

lifetime

Volume

$9.10K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$74

Open exposure

$269

3 positions

First seen

2026-04-21

last 06-15 13:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

41% — —

Sports

32% 0% $-1

Other

26% 0% $-1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	+97	$91	94¢	$91	+$1	06-15 13:11
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	+99	$91	91¢	$90	$-1	06-17 16:07
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	-90	$-87	98¢	$-88	$-2	06-02 09:39

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	5	$1.4K	711	711	+0	open	—	04-21 19:51
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	3	$1.3K	641	641	+0	open	—	04-21 11:05
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	3	$1.2K	635	635	+0	No	$-1	04-22 10:48
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	6	$469	195	285	-90	open	—	06-02 09:39
Will Alberta join the US?	14	$408	493	493	+0	open	—	06-08 01:17
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	5	$339	1,265	1,265	+0	open	—	04-21 02:37
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	6	$335	286	286	+0	open	—	05-28 13:32
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	7	$284	287	287	+0	open	—	05-31 02:56
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	6	$272	282	282	+0	open	—	06-05 12:55
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	5	$254	343	343	+0	open	—	06-10 06:51
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	4	$213	158	158	+0	open	—	06-10 00:50
Iran leadership change by June 30?	6	$207	204	204	+0	open	—	06-07 13:45
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	2	$191	97	97	+0	open	—	06-03 09:22
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$191	105	105	+0	open	—	05-24 12:59
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	2	$190	97	97	+0	open	—	05-24 00:55
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	2	$185	99	99	+0	open	—	06-10 15:37
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	2	$183	116	116	+0	open	—	06-04 00:50
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	3	$183	121	121	+0	open	—	06-09 15:55
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	2	$182	146	146	+0	open	—	06-12 22:54
Netanyahu out by June 30?	4	$182	92	92	+0	open	—	06-15 07:41
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	4	$181	108	108	+0	open	—	06-06 09:53
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	4	$174	88	88	+0	open	—	05-24 20:20
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	4	$141	103	221	-118	open	—	06-03 13:09
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	3	$103	194	194	+0	open	—	06-02 14:29
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	6	$93	2,510	2,510	+0	open	—	04-22 16:25
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	2	$91	99	0	+99	open	—	06-17 16:07
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	1	$91	97	0	+97	open	—	06-15 13:11
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	2	$77	99	99	+0	open	—	06-04 14:16
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	2	$77	694	694	+0	Yes	$-1	04-23 02:45
will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	2	$12	116	116	+0	open	—	06-12 16:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-17 16:07:32	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	57	92¢	$52	0x884151…
06-17 16:07:32	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	42	92¢	$39	0x7deaac…
06-15 13:11:42	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	97	93¢	$91	0x7481d7…
06-15 07:41:24	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xe4301c…
06-15 07:41:24	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	44	99¢	$43	0x30a4c5…
06-15 07:41:24	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	38	99¢	$38	0x186944…
06-15 07:40:37	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	BUY	92	99¢	$91	0x086aac…
06-12 22:54:21	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	146	62¢	$91	0x65ca0a…
06-12 21:15:21	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	146	63¢	$92	0xa0df0a…
06-12 16:27:19	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	116	5¢	$6	0xf7a623…
06-12 15:18:27	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	116	5¢	$6	0xaae679…
06-10 15:37:57	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	99	93¢	$92	0x14bd93…
06-10 13:00:37	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	99	93¢	$92	0x7dd32c…
06-10 06:51:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	103	30¢	$31	0xdb8323…
06-10 04:39:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	26	31¢	$8	0x2a902f…
06-10 04:39:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	77	30¢	$23	0x432746…
06-10 00:50:48	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	27	27¢	$7	0xd79cd9…
06-09 23:28:18	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	27	25¢	$7	0x591048…
06-09 15:55:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	113	76¢	$86	0xf5d2f2…
06-09 15:55:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	8	76¢	$6	0xc16283…
06-09 13:28:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	121	75¢	$91	0xc4d40f…
06-08 19:25:00	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	131	76¢	$100	0x69f181…
06-08 19:23:10	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	131	76¢	$100	0xa8a8ec…
06-08 01:17:27	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	31	5¢	$2	0xa8469a…
06-08 01:17:27	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	53	5¢	$3	0x84a8a9…
06-08 01:17:27	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	18	5¢	$1	0x5c1a10…
06-08 01:16:03	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	102	5¢	$5	0x8cba84…
06-07 14:53:30	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	192	5¢	$9	0x49c67a…
06-07 13:50:39	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	98	4¢	$4	0xd33756…
06-07 13:50:39	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	89	4¢	$4	0x895557…
06-07 13:50:39	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x100789…
06-07 13:45:57	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	103	96¢	$99	0xc6e4a2…
06-07 12:25:09	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	103	96¢	$99	0xbf1c0b…
06-06 09:53:12	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	22	84¢	$18	0xeb9a88…
06-06 09:53:12	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	86	84¢	$72	0x19feec…
06-06 07:23:37	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	31	84¢	$26	0xb06674…
06-06 07:23:37	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	77	84¢	$65	0x4d4719…
06-06 03:15:21	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	33	4¢	$1	0xd3e35e…
06-06 03:15:16	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	68	4¢	$3	0x53e508…
06-06 00:47:36	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	54	4¢	$2	0xe8649c…
06-06 00:47:36	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	47	4¢	$2	0xcad82c…
06-05 12:55:43	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	53	31¢	$16	0x64d4ce…
06-05 10:44:48	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	53	31¢	$16	0xb65a93…
06-04 20:50:22	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	131	69¢	$90	0x8d4609…
06-04 18:23:25	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	131	70¢	$92	0x5d68c6…
06-04 14:16:09	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	SELL	99	39¢	$39	0xc20e0c…
06-04 12:46:12	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	99	39¢	$39	0x4bc677…
06-04 00:50:01	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	116	79¢	$92	0x86c37f…
06-03 22:29:21	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	116	79¢	$92	0x7467c3…
06-03 21:36:45	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	106	95¢	$101	0xc5d994…
06-03 20:13:55	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	106	96¢	$101	0xde854a…
06-03 13:09:19	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	103	22¢	$23	0x94a868…
06-03 10:44:24	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	103	22¢	$23	0xa7c1eb…
06-03 09:22:38	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	97	99¢	$96	0x053699…
06-03 08:01:53	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	97	99¢	$96	0x3616cc…
06-02 14:29:03	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	55	26¢	$14	0xd1c373…
06-02 14:29:03	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	139	26¢	$36	0x245fcb…
06-02 12:13:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	194	27¢	$52	0x4e3417…
06-02 09:39:29	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	95	99¢	$94	0x93f39a…
06-02 07:12:15	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	95	99¢	$94	0x5d9ac4…
06-01 21:58:14	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	55	80¢	$44	0xf02fb9…
06-01 21:58:14	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	63	80¢	$51	0x60f2c7…
06-01 18:29:41	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0xc2a435…
06-01 17:14:45	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	4	96¢	$4	0x4bf650…
06-01 17:14:45	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	39	96¢	$37	0x2d07a6…
06-01 12:47:06	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	93	96¢	$89	0xb9b01b…
05-31 22:27:59	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	107	1¢	$1	0xdd6136…
05-31 20:37:06	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	107	1¢	$1	0x0f0464…
05-31 18:47:00	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0x10f98b…
05-31 17:06:33	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	19	98¢	$19	0x4225ff…
05-31 17:06:12	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	81	98¢	$79	0xd353dd…
05-31 02:56:24	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	115	53¢	$61	0x8a5d67…
05-31 02:56:24	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	13	53¢	$7	0x704903…
05-31 02:56:24	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	41	53¢	$22	0x3f3acc…
05-31 01:39:32	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	169	51¢	$86	0x4826d8…
05-30 20:50:26	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	149	2¢	$3	0x3992e9…
05-30 19:23:33	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	149	2¢	$4	0x941b97…
05-29 22:18:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	240	40¢	$96	0x9ba12a…
05-29 20:54:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	240	40¢	$96	0x57b52e…
05-29 10:33:38	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	98	29¢	$28	0x94b736…
05-29 08:41:56	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	98	29¢	$28	0x328017…
05-28 20:51:45	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	118	46¢	$54	0x4e54cb…
05-28 18:36:11	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	98	46¢	$45	0xa6e912…
05-28 18:36:11	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x4fd8df…
05-28 13:32:16	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	SELL	96	8¢	$7	0xf67c12…
05-28 12:11:25	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	BUY	96	7¢	$6	0x206931…
05-28 07:36:40	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	SELL	126	1¢	$1	0x33c396…
05-28 05:39:44	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	BUY	126	1¢	$2	0xbd0ac2…
05-27 20:06:26	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	90	96¢	$86	0xb385ae…
05-25 10:25:09	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	113	84¢	$95	0x9aa6e1…
05-25 08:40:20	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	113	84¢	$95	0x35172f…
05-24 20:20:35	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	82	99¢	$81	0xf9e4e2…
05-24 20:20:35	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x5f70ac…
05-24 17:12:48	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	60	99¢	$59	0x0fcb58…
05-24 17:12:11	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0x5ee12d…
05-24 12:59:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	105	91¢	$96	0x0a1854…
05-24 12:58:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	105	91¢	$96	0x6f0c01…
05-24 00:55:38	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	97	98¢	$95	0x92dcad…
05-24 00:54:49	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	97	98¢	$95	0x6865e6…
05-23 16:19:23	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	77	79¢	$61	0x2d30b2…