Worse-Effacement — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

-$13

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

242

lifetime

Volume

$9.42K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$39

Open exposure

$139

5 positions

First seen

2026-02-14

last 06-12 11:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

45% 100% +$0

Other

32% — —

Sports

12% — —

Politics

7% — —

Tech

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

63 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	-44	$-41	96¢	$-42	$-1	05-29 18:45
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	+47	$42	80¢	$38	$-4	06-09 09:00
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+43	$35	82¢	$35	+$0	06-10 11:34
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	+30	$24	55¢	$16	$-8	06-08 10:38
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	No	+7	$7	97¢	$7	+$0	06-12 11:28

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
btc updown 15m 1775117700	3	$219	110	110	+0	open	—	04-02 08:28
sol updown 15m 1773913500	5	$208	110	110	+0	open	—	03-19 09:59
cbb tenn iowast 2026 03 27	2	$200	100	100	+0	open	—	03-28 06:02
ethereum above 1900 on april 5	2	$200	100	100	+0	open	—	04-05 14:50
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 360 379	2	$199	100	100	+0	open	—	04-17 13:31
bitcoin up or down april 5 2026 11pm et	2	$199	100	100	+0	open	—	04-06 03:58
bitcoin up or down april 15 2026 7am et	2	$198	100	100	+0	open	—	04-15 11:55
nhl fla tor 2026 04 11	2	$189	95	95	+0	open	—	04-12 01:40
nhl lak sea 2026 04 13	3	$179	90	90	+0	open	—	04-14 04:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5AM ET	2	$179	90	90	+0	open	—	05-01 09:59
Golden Knights vs. Utah	4	$176	90	90	+0	open	—	04-25 04:02
bitcoin up or down march 27 2026 11pm et	2	$165	83	83	+0	open	—	03-28 03:58
bitcoin up or down april 9 2026 4am et	2	$160	80	80	+0	open	—	04-09 08:58
ethereum up or down march 28 2026 3am et	5	$159	80	80	+0	open	—	03-28 07:57
nba sas gsw 2026 04 01	2	$157	80	80	+0	open	—	04-02 04:09
cbb bayl minnst 2026 04 01	2	$156	80	80	+0	open	—	04-02 04:57
elon musk of tweets march 28 march 30 90 114	3	$156	80	80	+0	open	—	03-31 03:35
btc updown 15m 1775875500	5	$152	90	90	+0	open	—	04-11 03:00
nba was gsw 2026 03 27	2	$149	85	85	+0	open	—	03-28 03:28
nba por sas 2026 04 19	2	$130	65	65	+0	open	—	04-20 03:33
Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	2	$129	66	66	+0	open	—	04-24 07:08
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	8	$124	66	66	+0	open	—	04-08 13:17
ethereum up or down april 20 2026 1am et	2	$120	60	60	+0	open	—	04-20 06:01
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	2	$120	60	60	+0	open	—	04-26 15:37
btc updown 15m 1776665700	2	$119	60	60	+0	open	—	04-20 06:30
btc updown 15m 1776671100	2	$119	60	60	+0	open	—	04-20 08:00
bitcoin above 70k on march 18	6	$118	60	60	+0	open	—	03-18 13:27
bitcoin up or down march 24 2026 6am et	2	$116	60	60	+0	open	—	03-24 10:57
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	3	$114	98	30	+68	open	—	03-30 04:45
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	3	$113	65	65	+0	open	—	06-10 09:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-12 11:28:57	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x8f59d1…
06-12 11:24:04	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xf78026…
06-12 11:16:43	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	97¢	$0	0x7dfd2f…
06-12 11:16:03	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x4df716…
06-12 10:33:27	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	40	96¢	$38	0x71fe27…
06-10 11:34:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	43	82¢	$35	0x635b0a…
06-10 09:37:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	65	92¢	$60	0x064662…
06-09 14:22:28	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	50	98¢	$49	0x7e9562…
06-09 09:00:19	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	17	90¢	$15	0x7f194e…
06-09 09:00:19	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	13	90¢	$12	0x59dc3e…
06-09 09:00:19	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	17	90¢	$15	0x13fa00…
06-08 10:38:46	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	30	80¢	$24	0x785508…
06-07 06:55:46	spacex ipo closing market cap above 3pt8t	No	SELL	66	98¢	$65	0xed79e7…
06-07 04:55:07	bitcoin above 56k on june 7 2026	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x24eaac…
06-06 08:28:24	bitcoin above 56k on june 6 2026	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x23cc3e…
06-05 04:58:58	bitcoin above 58k on june 5 2026	Yes	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xbc420b…
06-04 11:56:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	35	84¢	$29	0xb97007…
06-03 08:05:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	30	79¢	$24	0x42ec6d…
06-02 04:08:14	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	40	91¢	$36	0x61982e…
06-01 04:33:29	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	40	88¢	$35	0x822e58…
05-30 14:15:47	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0xa51c40…
05-29 18:45:37	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	44	94¢	$41	0xb19bdc…
05-27 20:57:08	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	91¢	$36	0xb56da9…
05-22 13:42:51	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	SELL	46	93¢	$43	0xb8d66e…
05-19 14:09:12	Gemini 3.5 released by July 31?	Yes	SELL	42	99¢	$42	0x7422a5…
05-19 06:57:29	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	46	96¢	$44	0x9247a6…
05-17 09:45:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	SELL	43	97¢	$42	0x83e63b…
05-16 06:29:34	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	42	99¢	$42	0x02911f…
05-15 05:29:06	Gemini 3.5 released by July 31?	Yes	BUY	42	89¢	$37	0x20ae8e…
05-14 15:03:05	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	42	99¢	$41	0x4c9992…
05-14 06:49:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	No	SELL	36	95¢	$34	0x788801…
05-13 05:20:41	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 13?	Yes	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x0f4b8a…
05-12 03:47:26	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xfb1c80…
05-11 04:03:46	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	No	BUY	36	96¢	$34	0x1b0220…
05-05 14:35:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	BUY	43	94¢	$40	0x89bfae…
05-01 09:59:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5AM ET	Down	SELL	90	100¢	$90	0x089b74…
05-01 09:56:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	90	99¢	$89	0x97ef40…
04-28 06:32:06	Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	80¢	$56	0x0a7e8a…
04-27 05:15:02	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 27?	Yes	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x6a2bc8…
04-26 15:37:04	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	No	SELL	60	100¢	$60	0x3e4b6d…
04-26 05:18:58	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	No	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0x8a5d37…
04-26 04:56:38	Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x426eb6…
04-25 04:02:48	Golden Knights vs. Utah	Utah	SELL	90	100¢	$90	0xd8dc9c…
04-25 03:36:00	Golden Knights vs. Utah	Utah	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0xa022ea…
04-25 03:34:44	Golden Knights vs. Utah	Utah	BUY	38	97¢	$37	0x98f6c1…
04-25 03:34:38	Golden Knights vs. Utah	Utah	BUY	21	97¢	$21	0xb31fd1…
04-24 07:08:14	Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	No	SELL	66	98¢	$65	0x4be579…
04-23 15:06:10	Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	No	BUY	66	98¢	$64	0xe3101b…
04-23 07:39:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	No	SELL	49	96¢	$47	0xa52c5b…
04-22 17:25:02	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x8771d1…
04-22 14:21:58	Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x226ca2…
04-21 09:28:58	bitcoin above 72k on april 21	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x650f14…
04-21 03:41:52	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	55	99¢	$54	0x5ff8a0…
04-20 12:02:32	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x934f58…
04-20 08:00:24	btc updown 15m 1776671100	Down	SELL	60	100¢	$60	0xe95339…
04-20 07:54:58	btc updown 15m 1776671100	Down	BUY	60	98¢	$59	0xb850d7…
04-20 06:30:36	btc updown 15m 1776665700	Up	SELL	60	100¢	$60	0x4a5345…
04-20 06:30:08	btc updown 15m 1776665700	Up	BUY	60	99¢	$59	0x9bc284…
04-20 06:01:16	ethereum up or down april 20 2026 1am et	Down	SELL	60	100¢	$60	0x2092b5…
04-20 05:54:38	ethereum up or down april 20 2026 1am et	Down	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0x09f22f…
04-20 03:33:34	nba por sas 2026 04 19	Spurs	SELL	65	100¢	$65	0x85764a…
04-20 03:19:38	nba por sas 2026 04 19	Spurs	BUY	65	100¢	$65	0xae5398…
04-19 10:33:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?	No	SELL	53	98¢	$52	0xdc7f6a…
04-19 05:35:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	No	BUY	49	97¢	$47	0x36f58b…
04-19 05:32:26	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xc30a24…
04-18 09:45:38	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	55	99¢	$55	0x5a8da6…
04-17 13:31:12	elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 360 379	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x457d8c…
04-17 10:22:20	elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 360 379	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x64607e…
04-16 12:27:34	ethereum above 2500 on april 16	No	BUY	103	100¢	$102	0xfd4694…
04-16 12:23:50	ethereum above 2500 on april 16	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xb1fc37…
04-15 11:55:16	bitcoin up or down april 15 2026 7am et	Up	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x8f1ea3…
04-15 11:52:02	bitcoin up or down april 15 2026 7am et	Up	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x6d2838…
04-15 05:48:56	bitcoin up or down april 15 2026 1am et	Down	BUY	90	99¢	$89	0x05a0ee…
04-14 04:16:31	nhl lak sea 2026 04 13	Kings	SELL	90	100¢	$90	0x0e2312…
04-14 03:21:09	nhl lak sea 2026 04 13	Kings	BUY	68	99¢	$67	0x06fdcb…
04-14 03:20:11	nhl lak sea 2026 04 13	Kings	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0x49f59a…
04-12 01:40:29	nhl fla tor 2026 04 11	Panthers	SELL	95	100¢	$95	0xc23304…
04-12 01:39:31	nhl fla tor 2026 04 11	Panthers	BUY	95	99¢	$94	0xf001bb…
04-11 03:00:03	btc updown 15m 1775875500	Down	SELL	29	99¢	$29	0x0410e1…
04-11 03:00:01	btc updown 15m 1775875500	Down	SELL	21	99¢	$20	0x0a2478…
04-11 02:58:59	btc updown 15m 1775875500	Down	BUY	50	87¢	$44	0x795130…
04-11 02:58:33	btc updown 15m 1775875500	Down	SELL	40	78¢	$31	0x17692f…
04-11 02:58:17	btc updown 15m 1775875500	Down	BUY	40	71¢	$28	0xc8c106…
04-11 01:43:49	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	No	SELL	40	96¢	$38	0x16decf…
04-10 09:05:29	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?	No	BUY	53	98¢	$52	0x91d8af…
04-10 04:59:07	eth updown 15m 1775796300	Up	SELL	55	100¢	$55	0xe4bef1…
04-10 04:56:15	eth updown 15m 1775796300	Up	BUY	55	99¢	$54	0xb37502…
04-09 08:58:31	bitcoin up or down april 9 2026 4am et	Up	SELL	80	100¢	$80	0x80747f…
04-09 08:55:53	bitcoin up or down april 9 2026 4am et	Up	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0x2bc54f…
04-08 13:29:27	Will Juliano Floss win Big Brother Brasil 26?	No	SELL	36	99¢	$36	0x87a8c4…
04-08 13:29:27	Will Juliano Floss win Big Brother Brasil 26?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x040e26…
04-08 13:17:11	Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0xa21d50…
04-08 13:17:09	Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	14	94¢	$13	0xb8d556…
04-08 13:17:07	Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	13	94¢	$12	0xa070fb…
04-08 13:16:57	Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	18	94¢	$17	0xdb718d…
04-08 13:16:01	Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x92fdda…
04-08 13:15:33	Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	14	94¢	$14	0x7b8165…
04-08 09:54:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	No	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x3a0c79…
04-08 09:53:07	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x702ba9…
04-08 09:52:35	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0x736e8b…