Glaring-Farrow — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$27

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

92.5%

Resolved

Trades

405

lifetime

Volume

$4.23K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

$426

11 positions

First seen

2026-04-26

last 10-29 03:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 47 days

Categories

Other

68% 69% +$52

Politics

30% 80% +$1

Sports

1% 30% -$26

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

43 active days in 12wk • peak 21 trades/day

Open positions (11) Resolved markets (13) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+286	$241	82¢	$235	-$6	10-02 18:03
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	+65	$59	94¢	$61	+$2	10-26 20:27
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	No	+37	$28	99¢	$37	+$10	10-20 00:51
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+1,659	$28	2¢	$32	+$4	10-29 03:57
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	No	+38	$20	52¢	$20	$0	10-16 19:50
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+65	$10	16¢	$11	+$1	09-23 01:08
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	No	+11	$9	96¢	$10	+$1	08-03 23:24
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	+40	$13	24¢	$10	-$3	10-16 00:37
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	+19	$11	32¢	$6	-$5	07-24 18:55
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+75	$4	5¢	$4	$0	06-29 09:24
Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?	Yes	+30	$7	1¢	$0	-$6	10-19 21:13

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	6	$422	237	200	+37	open	—	10-20 00:51
Will Alberta join the US?	10	$301	155	155	+0	open	—	09-27 02:32
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	25	$247	306	20	+286	open	—	10-02 18:03
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	2	$213	114	114	+0	No	+$13	05-30 19:37
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?	18	$192	117	117	+0	No	+$23	06-21 20:11
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	4	$154	82	82	+0	No	+$4	08-09 00:15
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	4	$151	78	78	+0	open	—	07-12 15:42
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?	8	$140	80	80	+0	open	—	10-18 21:14
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?	9	$111	67	67	+0	open	—	09-11 04:54
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	3	$106	57	57	+0	No	+$6	07-24 11:44
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	10	$98	59	59	+0	Yes	+$7	10-27 01:22
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by September 30?	3	$96	50	50	-0	No	+$4	10-01 12:25
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?	4	$96	51	51	+0	No	+$6	08-12 04:34
Will Trump raise tariffs on Canada by October 31?	14	$92	128	0	+128	open	—	10-19 21:22
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	3	$84	49	49	+0	open	—	06-20 19:47
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	5	$83	45	45	+0	No	+$5	08-26 00:49
Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31?	7	$78	108	0	+108	open	—	07-13 02:26
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	3	$70	36	36	+0	No	+$1	06-16 02:16
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	3	$60	32	32	+0	open	—	10-08 03:27
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	7	$59	65	0	+65	open	—	10-26 20:27
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?	4	$56	30	30	+0	No	+$3	06-29 19:16
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	3	$54	36	25	+11	open	—	08-03 23:24
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	2	$52	28	28	+0	No	+$2	05-28 20:55
Doug Ford out as PC Party Leader by December 31?	6	$51	66	0	+66	open	—	07-09 02:41
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	2	$50	25	25	+0	No	+$0	06-18 15:13
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?	3	$46	25	25	+0	open	—	09-25 10:30
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	4	$39	27	27	+0	open	—	09-05 15:26
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	3	$39	22	22	+0	open	—	08-25 12:13
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	3	$38	20	20	+0	open	—	07-11 03:11
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	3	$38	20	20	+0	No	+$1	08-12 10:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 03:57:49	Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xfaf52b…
10-27 07:01:12	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0xe6094e…
10-27 02:30:29	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0xf90c3b…
10-27 01:22:24	Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0x5ff5b9…
10-26 20:33:11	Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	30	80¢	$24	0x68625c…
10-26 20:27:21	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xa933a7…
10-23 17:52:03	Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$3	0x033904…
10-23 17:49:27	US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by November 30?	No	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0x1b7eee…
10-20 16:38:47	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0xd8a38a…
10-20 00:51:24	Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x91da48…
10-19 21:22:18	Will Trump raise tariffs on Canada by October 31?	No	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0xc3ea5a…
10-19 21:13:45	Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?	Yes	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0x618f74…
10-19 16:47:15	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	SELL	9	18¢	$2	0xa7b63b…
10-19 16:42:35	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	SELL	56	18¢	$10	0xb99877…
10-19 16:40:57	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	SELL	9	18¢	$2	0xe369c3…
10-18 21:14:24	US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?	No	SELL	80	95¢	$76	0x89ecd6…
10-18 20:56:47	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	SELL	16	18¢	$3	0xe19d18…
10-18 17:35:36	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	SELL	20	82¢	$16	0x9050a6…
10-18 16:45:30	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	Yes	SELL	20	73¢	$15	0x5a1de4…
10-18 09:43:18	Will Trump raise tariffs on Canada by October 31?	No	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x690688…
10-18 06:46:39	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	BUY	19	8¢	$2	0xcb2d31…
10-17 18:51:48	Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?	Yes	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0x43b4de…
10-17 18:41:35	Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?	Yes	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0xee003b…
10-17 15:36:20	Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x8f0bd3…
10-17 15:17:53	Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x1e13e5…
10-17 13:48:41	Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	7	2¢	$0	0x3cb4b0…
10-17 12:21:47	Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0xb3b161…
10-17 09:57:54	Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0xdf9ad1…
10-17 09:05:36	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	Yes	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x099bf1…
10-17 08:05:09	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	Yes	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0xdb4baa…
10-17 08:04:05	Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0x7541fc…
10-17 06:40:47	Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0x1defcb…
10-17 06:38:27	Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0x4a513c…
10-17 06:36:18	Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0x3f6571…
10-17 05:35:59	Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xdd8772…
10-17 04:29:08	Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0x68b3cf…
10-17 03:48:24	Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x0bc935…
10-17 03:22:56	Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0x349607…
10-17 01:15:53	Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0x977dc1…
10-17 00:45:59	Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0xf3b665…
10-17 00:29:05	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0xf17e9e…
10-17 00:28:42	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	Yes	BUY	6	55¢	$3	0x1eb981…
10-16 22:39:59	Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	30	2¢	$1	0xbbfcbd…
10-16 19:50:32	Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	No	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x4f0e93…
10-16 13:26:25	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0xff255d…
10-16 00:38:36	Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0xf1b0c3…
10-16 00:37:24	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x149283…
10-15 14:13:35	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	BUY	4	9¢	$0	0x7ee29a…
10-15 10:50:36	Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	48	2¢	$1	0x2e34ae…
10-15 10:48:54	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0xe5dd85…
10-15 10:46:36	Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0x297bdb…
10-15 10:24:53	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x4a3877…
10-15 10:21:23	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%?	Yes	SELL	12	14¢	$2	0xa84b46…
10-15 10:19:47	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%?	Yes	SELL	41	25¢	$10	0xaab837…
10-15 09:38:17	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%?	Yes	BUY	3	25¢	$1	0x5d1ad1…
10-14 11:43:31	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%?	Yes	BUY	9	16¢	$1	0x1e5616…
10-14 08:24:26	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%?	Yes	BUY	1	16¢	$0	0xc6c9fc…
10-14 08:24:19	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%?	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xef053b…
10-14 08:24:19	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xcba41d…
10-14 08:24:19	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x8fcc58…
10-14 04:15:02	Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0xd51b56…
10-14 04:13:47	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%?	Yes	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0xd762e3…
10-13 12:36:23	Will Trump raise tariffs on Canada by October 31?	No	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0xf07d75…
10-13 00:12:29	Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	No	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xac89ae…
10-13 00:08:12	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%?	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0xd19667…
10-13 00:05:38	Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0xf21726…
10-12 22:48:24	Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0xa41dda…
10-12 01:45:56	Will Trump raise tariffs on Canada by October 31?	No	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0x2360e1…
10-10 19:25:28	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	11	81¢	$9	0x6643f7…
10-10 19:21:37	Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x3c6f73…
10-10 06:21:45	Will Trump raise tariffs on Canada by October 31?	No	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0x203f0a…
10-09 15:39:25	Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0x98a435…
10-09 15:38:27	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?	No	SELL	16	97¢	$15	0x90f756…
10-09 15:37:07	Will Trump raise tariffs on Canada by October 31?	No	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0xecabb4…
10-09 12:50:33	Will Trump raise tariffs on Canada by October 31?	No	BUY	1	63¢	$0	0x8af2a9…
10-09 12:50:33	Will Trump raise tariffs on Canada by October 31?	No	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x854ca7…
10-09 11:34:01	Will Trump raise tariffs on Canada by October 31?	No	BUY	9	63¢	$6	0xb404f7…
10-08 05:04:37	Will Trump raise tariffs on Canada by October 31?	No	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x47c403…
10-08 03:27:59	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	32	95¢	$31	0xbb8de8…
10-08 03:23:44	Will Trump raise tariffs on Canada by October 31?	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x535d30…
10-06 02:32:22	Falcons vs. Saints	Saints	SELL	7	3¢	$0	0xdf9515…
10-06 02:31:42	Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?	Yes	SELL	30	0¢	$0	0x60f192…
10-06 01:00:37	Falcons vs. Saints	Saints	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x4d016f…
10-06 00:57:31	Will Trump raise tariffs on Canada by October 31?	No	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0x5248a0…
10-05 03:59:25	Will Trump raise tariffs on Canada by October 31?	No	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x3992fa…
10-05 03:28:02	Lions vs. Panthers	Panthers	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x1ba212…
10-05 03:16:44	US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?	No	BUY	18	85¢	$15	0xa58eec…
10-02 18:03:23	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x1e38cc…
10-01 16:51:14	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0xc40c9d…
10-01 14:49:27	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x543242…
10-01 12:35:41	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$9	0x7ca629…
10-01 12:29:41	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?	No	BUY	6	95¢	$5	0x80c5c2…
10-01 12:28:17	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x4fa701…
10-01 12:25:50	US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by September 30?	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x4803c4…
09-29 13:05:08	us canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by october 31	No	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x7c3e49…
09-29 13:04:36	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0xf321ac…
09-29 13:03:27	us canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by october 31	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xeb85b7…
09-29 12:35:36	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	14¢	$1	0x261f5e…
09-29 03:05:26	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0xdeb972…
09-27 16:19:30	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by october 15	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xad8636…