Reasonable-Lady — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.86K

Unrealized P&L

-$14

Hit rate

53.2%

Resolved

2,801

Trades

14,715

lifetime

Volume

$48.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$74

30 positions

First seen

2026-01-22

last 10-26 16:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 189 days

Categories

Other

82% 31% -$1,552

Politics

7% 38% -$35

Crypto

6% 52% -$56

Sports

3% 46% -$173

Tech

2% 47% -$31

Pop-Culture

0% 43% -$8

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 409 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+156	$25	15¢	$23	-$2	10-24 01:09
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	No	+19	$11	56¢	$11	+$0	10-02 19:48
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	No	+25	$9	18¢	$5	-$4	09-22 11:27
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	+5	$5	88¢	$4	$0	09-23 20:34
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	+8	$4	56¢	$4	+$0	10-18 19:20
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	+5	$4	84¢	$4	+$0	09-15 13:29
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	No	+5	$4	76¢	$4	+$0	09-26 04:37
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	+5	$3	76¢	$4	+$1	09-11 11:40
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	Yes	+5	$3	62¢	$3	+$0	09-26 20:24
next white house press secretary announced by november 30 2026	Yes	+5	$3	34¢	$2	-$1	10-16 22:51
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+9	$1	17¢	$1	+$0	09-14 06:07
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+5	$2	28¢	$1	$0	08-29 20:54
Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+51	$3	2¢	$1	-$2	09-24 13:47
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	+29	$1	4¢	$1	+$0	09-08 01:31
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+9	$1	12¢	$1	+$0	09-21 20:09
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	+7	$1	14¢	$1	$0	09-25 14:08
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?	No	+6	$1	12¢	$1	$0	09-10 21:22
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+5	$0	11¢	$1	+$0	10-05 23:07
Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	+15	$0	2¢	$0	+$0	09-19 15:24
Will Leeds United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	+216	$1	0¢	$0	$0	10-10 15:34
Will US annex any territory in 2026?	Yes	+5	$0	6¢	$0	+$0	09-12 23:06
Will Israel strike 15 or more countries in 2026?	Yes	+25	$0	1¢	$0	+$0	10-10 13:31
Will Dune: Messiah have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	+98	$0	0¢	$0	+$0	09-02 20:49
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?	Yes	+5	$0	3¢	$0	+$0	09-20 13:15
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+16	$0	1¢	$0	$0	09-17 20:31
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+7	-$1	1¢	$0	+$1	09-15 23:43
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Yes	+10	$1	0¢	$0	-$1	09-02 09:13
Will Israel strike 13 countries in 2026?	Yes	+20	$0	0¢	$0	$0	09-22 08:29
Will Israel strike 11 countries in 2026?	Yes	+5	$0	0¢	$0	+$0	10-08 05:38
Will Manchester City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	No	+0	$7	54¢	$0	-$7	09-25 20:58

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
ballon dor 2026 kylian mbappe or lamine yamal to finish higher	78	$1.7K	1,860	1,859	+0	Mbappé	-$96	10-19 15:37
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027?	8	$655	370	370	+0	open	—	10-14 12:36
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 48-49°F on October 14?	61	$601	598	598	+0	Yes	-$357	10-14 20:13
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 21?	120	$403	387	387	+0	Up	-$27	09-21 04:34
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 19°C on October 14?	3	$387	202	202	+0	Yes	+$7	10-14 08:06
Gorka Guruzeta: Anytime Goalscorer	3	$374	196	196	+0	No	+$14	09-19 15:15
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.40% before 2027?	73	$311	185	185	+0	Yes	-$22	09-21 12:30
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	16	$292	188	188	+0	open	—	10-07 12:01
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	2	$261	152	152	+0	open	—	10-20 08:39
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?	2	$247	131	131	+0	Yes	+$11	10-05 18:12
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #2 US song this week?	3	$222	161	161	+0	No	-$22	09-28 05:54
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?	23	$217	270	270	+0	Yes	-$3	09-21 23:26
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 6?	14	$209	217	217	+0	Yes	+$31	10-06 06:51
xauusd up or down on september 16 2026	51	$208	260	184	+76	Down	+$4	09-16 18:34
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	7	$196	652	652	-0	open	—	09-26 02:08
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?	11	$194	167	167	+0	Yes	+$60	09-14 01:40
Will Tunisia vs. Mali end in a draw?	5	$180	95	95	+0	Yes	+$7	10-01 07:35
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 220 239	8	$171	994	994	+0	No	+$11	03-17 16:12
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	3	$171	104	104	+0	open	—	10-19 15:54
elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 340 359	14	$164	1,167	1,167	+0	No	+$1	03-22 20:57
lol t1 ns 2026 07 27	12	$158	149	149	+0	Nongshim Red Force	+$137	07-27 11:06
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in September?	19	$155	112	112	+0	No	+$0	09-26 17:36
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 in September?	20	$148	276	276	+0	No	-$16	09-19 10:52
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	24	$147	118	103	+14	Yes	-$32	09-15 22:05
Hamza Abdelkarim: Anytime Goalscorer	27	$147	99	99	+0	No	+$1	09-16 21:43
Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Watermelon?	5	$146	95	95	+0	No	-$20	10-02 03:55
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 18°C on September 17?	10	$146	82	82	+0	Yes	+$7	09-17 07:29
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on October 15?	2	$143	91	91	+0	No	+$37	10-15 00:00
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in September?	71	$143	242	242	+0	Yes	-$9	09-21 05:08
elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 220 239	12	$142	496	496	+0	No	+$21	04-09 02:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 16:52:39	Will annual inflation be 4.1% in October?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x4f02d7…
10-26 13:58:36	Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0xb0bb8c…
10-26 13:51:56	Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2.75T?	No	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x22558d…
10-26 01:49:35	Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	59¢	$5	0x769371…
10-26 01:49:05	Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	40	70¢	$28	0xcbcac5…
10-25 19:35:54	Will Bayern Munich qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Europa League?	No	SELL	7	94¢	$7	0x8a54d4…
10-25 11:46:29	Will Brentford win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	SELL	78	0¢	$0	0x17f7bc…
10-25 10:53:20	Will Meta be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xca8d1f…
10-24 15:53:06	Tokenized stocks available on Coinbase by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	33¢	$2	0x40b2e6…
10-24 10:39:09	Will annual inflation be 4.1% in October?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x9461c4…
10-24 01:09:38	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	156	16¢	$25	0xdecdad…
10-23 19:42:05	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	22	18¢	$4	0xda4e8a…
10-23 08:21:36	Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	15	70¢	$10	0x4c35b8…
10-23 07:15:39	Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.75% and 4.49%?	Yes	SELL	4	2¢	$0	0x65858a…
10-23 04:11:54	Tokenized stocks available on Coinbase by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	0	52¢	$0	0x942bf3…
10-23 00:59:24	Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x8337df…
10-23 00:50:56	Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x0812e8…
10-23 00:50:48	Will Meta be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	7	14¢	$1	0x732ad3…
10-23 00:50:21	Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	SELL	22	6¢	$1	0x1498d8…
10-23 00:50:12	Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	28	16¢	$5	0xe56776…
10-23 00:50:02	Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0xaf2eb6…
10-23 00:50:00	Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	8	0¢	$0	0xcea853…
10-22 23:44:44	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	29	24¢	$7	0x6b7edb…
10-22 23:34:15	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1400 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	31	98¢	$31	0xb1d17a…
10-22 23:29:38	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1400 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	25	94¢	$24	0x692738…
10-22 23:29:38	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1400 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	94¢	$6	0x4614ba…
10-22 17:36:47	Rockstar releases PC version of GTA VI by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	60	23¢	$14	0x7642c9…
10-22 15:22:48	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% in October?	No	SELL	22	82¢	$18	0x0f224e…
10-22 14:08:35	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.50% in October?	Yes	SELL	11	3¢	$0	0x6593e1…
10-22 13:17:09	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.50% in October?	Yes	SELL	6	3¢	$0	0xffcbed…
10-22 12:19:26	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.38% in October?	Yes	SELL	40	5¢	$2	0x301da9…
10-21 23:43:21	Will the PQ win 60-64 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?	Yes	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0x165e76…
10-21 16:15:17	Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	9	71¢	$7	0xb8f314…
10-21 13:42:32	Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	75	18¢	$13	0x2969af…
10-21 13:42:30	Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	15	18¢	$3	0xee99c1…
10-21 05:26:36	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	6	34¢	$2	0xb1de89…
10-21 01:53:24	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in October?	No	SELL	38	17¢	$7	0x1134da…
10-21 00:26:05	Will Kylian Mbappé finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0xf50d82…
10-20 20:42:50	Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 98?	No	SELL	15	78¢	$12	0x60472e…
10-20 20:01:51	Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	0	56¢	$0	0xc119fa…
10-20 20:01:51	Will Meta be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x8f6bc5…
10-20 20:01:30	Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	8	56¢	$4	0xc9d01f…
10-20 20:01:30	Will Meta be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	54¢	$1	0x20d938…
10-20 19:50:42	Rockstar releases PC version of GTA VI by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	16	6¢	$1	0x380971…
10-20 19:16:02	Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	No	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0x72c314…
10-20 19:15:33	Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	No	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0xc7a1ef…
10-20 19:15:33	Will the Calgary Flames be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xa40d26…
10-20 12:42:00	Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	38	61¢	$23	0xe6f897…
10-20 11:16:17	Will Real Madrid finish 9th-24th in UCL league phase?	Yes	SELL	18	10¢	$2	0xa3244e…
10-20 08:39:19	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	No	SELL	152	90¢	$137	0xa60183…
10-20 08:34:28	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	36	59¢	$21	0x3aa8cb…
10-20 00:13:29	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.80% in October?	No	SELL	12	62¢	$7	0xb625c4…
10-19 19:42:47	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.43% in October?	No	SELL	5	43¢	$2	0xace44d…
10-19 17:10:50	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	89	41¢	$36	0x6e0353…
10-19 17:03:08	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in October?	No	SELL	59	19¢	$11	0xc36edf…
10-19 16:42:29	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.50% in October?	Yes	SELL	11	10¢	$1	0x3b09be…
10-19 16:34:29	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	SELL	9	94¢	$9	0x3c8897…
10-19 16:25:00	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.83% in October?	No	SELL	29	58¢	$17	0x1b692a…
10-19 15:54:18	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	104	88¢	$91	0xdba8a6…
10-19 15:37:45	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Yamal	SELL	0	39¢	$0	0x2cd56d…
10-19 15:36:44	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Yamal	SELL	697	39¢	$272	0x7cd6ea…
10-19 15:35:23	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	61¢	$2	0x65c68a…
10-19 15:18:00	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Yamal	SELL	28	39¢	$11	0xcd23aa…
10-19 15:12:09	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Yamal	SELL	15	39¢	$6	0x9d0c70…
10-19 14:59:26	Will Michael Carrick be out as Manchester United manager by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	4	87¢	$4	0xdeabca…
10-19 14:59:26	Will Michael Carrick be out as Manchester United manager by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	6	87¢	$5	0x0b0a5b…
10-19 14:58:27	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	18	37¢	$7	0x617fb4…
10-19 14:48:24	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	76	3¢	$2	0x0d38d4…
10-19 13:54:27	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Yamal	SELL	25	41¢	$10	0xc517a1…
10-19 13:26:00	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Yamal	BUY	17	40¢	$7	0xb1b6e5…
10-19 13:25:23	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Yamal	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x724b3c…
10-19 13:24:48	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Yamal	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xd0b874…
10-19 13:24:24	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Yamal	BUY	89	40¢	$36	0xa867bf…
10-19 13:07:42	Ballon d'Or 2026: Harry Kane or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Kane	SELL	10	76¢	$8	0xdd9461…
10-19 12:28:21	Will any country join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	35	29¢	$10	0x198b4c…
10-19 12:21:39	Will any country join the Mecca Agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0xa92e7a…
10-19 12:20:45	Will any country join the Mecca Agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	3¢	$1	0xab0662…
10-19 10:02:38	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Yamal	BUY	21	42¢	$9	0xf68710…
10-19 05:44:03	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 16°C on October 19?	Yes	SELL	12	17¢	$2	0x149e1a…
10-19 04:48:15	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 16°C on October 19?	Yes	SELL	24	54¢	$13	0xe70ded…
10-19 04:31:14	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 16°C on October 19?	Yes	SELL	12	55¢	$7	0xbdceb1…
10-19 03:22:26	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 16°C on October 19?	Yes	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0xd41e01…
10-19 03:16:08	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 16°C on October 19?	Yes	BUY	43	18¢	$8	0x42f222…
10-19 01:45:23	Will Dandelion (Ella Langley) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x81aef1…
10-19 01:45:23	Will Dandelion (Ella Langley) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x6844b6…
10-18 20:12:12	Will Michael Carrick be out as Manchester United manager by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	12	63¢	$7	0xb62b17…
10-18 19:20:21	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	8	52¢	$4	0x57673e…
10-18 18:17:20	Will Real Madrid finish in the top 2 of the 2026-27 LaLiga season?	Yes	SELL	5	71¢	$4	0x9d7179…
10-18 17:26:21	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in October?	No	BUY	88	28¢	$25	0x89390e…
10-18 17:14:17	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-18?	No	BUY	39	10¢	$4	0xbf71b8…
10-18 17:14:17	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in October?	No	BUY	9	28¢	$3	0x2c3e0c…
10-18 15:03:54	Will Michael Carrick be out as Manchester United manager by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0x28b87f…
10-18 14:13:59	Will Michael Carrick be out as Manchester United manager by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0xb003a9…
10-18 11:54:27	Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin vs. Liaoning Flying Leopards: O/U 171.5	Under	BUY	1	61¢	$0	0x0b858c…
10-18 11:54:26	Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin vs. Liaoning Flying Leopards: O/U 171.5	Under	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0xfb3b48…
10-18 04:06:08	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on October 18?	Yes	SELL	41	96¢	$39	0x322a61…
10-18 03:04:48	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on October 18?	Yes	BUY	17	91¢	$16	0x79bda8…
10-18 03:04:48	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on October 18?	Yes	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x227338…
10-18 03:01:44	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on October 18?	Yes	SELL	26	23¢	$6	0x93464e…
10-18 02:43:44	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on October 18?	Yes	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0x5c21c7…