Lost-Thermometer — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$6

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

60.9%

Resolved

124

Trades

268

lifetime

Volume

$339

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-06

last 06-09 11:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Crypto

90% 47% +$4

Other

7% 57% +$3

Politics

3% — —

Sports

0% 0% $-1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 111 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	3	$11	10	10	+0	Up	+$3	05-11 05:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	4	$9	12	7	+5	Down	$-1	05-11 06:39
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5	2	$9	5	5	+0	Under	+$1	05-10 17:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	3	$8	6	6	+0	Down	+$2	05-11 05:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	5	$7	5	5	+0	Up	+$1	05-11 05:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	4	$6	9	9	+0	Up	+$2	05-11 07:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	3	$6	8	4	+3	Down	+$2	05-11 06:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	4	$6	117	3	+114	Up	$-2	05-12 09:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	3	$5	4	4	+0	Down	+$1	05-12 15:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	4	$5	7	7	+0	Down	+$1	05-11 13:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	4	$5	5	5	+0	Down	+$1	05-11 08:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	2	$5	4	4	+0	Down	+$3	05-06 18:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	3	$5	5	5	+0	Down	+$1	05-12 15:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	4	$4	4	4	+0	Up	+$0	05-11 09:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	4	$4	4	4	+0	Down	+$0	05-11 13:22
cs2 abyssa rstr 2026 06 09	4	$4	5	5	+0	open	—	06-09 10:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	3	$4	6	4	+2	Down	+$0	05-06 18:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	4	$4	8	8	+0	Down	+$0	05-06 17:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	2	$4	7	0	+7	Up	+$3	05-11 05:51
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 12?	4	$4	6	6	+0	Down	$-0	05-12 08:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	4	$4	9	9	+0	Up	$-0	05-11 14:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	2	$4	3	3	+0	Up	+$2	05-06 17:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	3	$4	4	2	+2	Down	$-0	05-11 07:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	4	$4	4	4	+0	Down	$-0	05-11 05:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	2	$4	6	6	+0	Down	+$2	05-07 03:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	3	$3	7	3	+4	Down	+$4	05-07 06:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	2	$3	3	3	+0	Down	+$1	05-06 18:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	3	$3	5	3	+2	Up	$-1	05-11 09:08
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	3	$3	4	2	+3	open	—	05-08 18:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	3	$3	31	6	+25	Up	$-1	05-07 02:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 11:27:31	doge updown 5m 1781004300	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x729ae6…
06-09 11:27:01	doge updown 5m 1781004300	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xa331cf…
06-09 10:55:49	btc updown 5m 1781002500	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xcb2d0e…
06-09 10:52:24	cs2 abyssa rstr 2026 06 09	Rooster	SELL	2	45¢	$1	0xe875ee…
06-09 10:47:48	cs2 abyssa rstr 2026 06 09	Rooster	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xf0333b…
06-09 10:47:07	cs2 abyssa rstr 2026 06 09	Abyssal	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0xab6c53…
06-09 10:24:58	cs2 abyssa rstr 2026 06 09	Abyssal	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xb5f396…
05-14 14:11:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x215d25…
05-14 14:11:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	SELL	1	57¢	$1	0x34ac2c…
05-14 14:10:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x3ca5b1…
05-14 14:06:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x887be6…
05-14 14:06:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x29adbc…
05-14 14:02:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x1b6cde…
05-14 13:51:28	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	2	25¢	$1	0xcc0f57…
05-14 13:51:21	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	1	42¢	$1	0x9d82da…
05-14 04:29:31	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xd724bb…
05-14 04:29:15	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x8d8bd1…
05-14 03:51:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Up	SELL	3	43¢	$1	0x795df6…
05-14 03:51:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xe12c83…
05-14 03:31:06	Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros	Seattle Mariners	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x45f674…
05-13 18:02:51	RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Athletic Club: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xa5bf7d…
05-13 18:02:33	RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x4a615b…
05-13 18:01:42	Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x68b5d5…
05-13 00:36:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x92d4a8…
05-13 00:31:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xef2898…
05-12 15:57:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	SELL	5	57¢	$3	0x8cae9d…
05-12 15:56:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x1b1ef1…
05-12 15:55:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x0d14a4…
05-12 15:30:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xdceb13…
05-12 15:29:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	SELL	4	88¢	$3	0xc297b0…
05-12 15:27:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xb7c73d…
05-12 15:26:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x88739d…
05-12 15:20:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x3d1c5b…
05-12 15:14:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x0a6efd…
05-12 15:13:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xb1378d…
05-12 09:23:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x892efc…
05-12 09:15:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xb05287…
05-12 09:06:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xf6b9e5…
05-12 09:04:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xb3438a…
05-12 09:03:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x2711c1…
05-12 09:02:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	SELL	3	58¢	$2	0x233461…
05-12 09:01:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xc2fe5f…
05-12 08:58:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	SELL	4	49¢	$2	0xe7255e…
05-12 08:57:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xfed6a1…
05-12 08:55:45	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 12?	Up	SELL	3	25¢	$1	0xe4a53a…
05-12 08:54:35	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 12?	No	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0x263429…
05-12 08:44:24	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 12?	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x6877a1…
05-12 08:14:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4AM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x4a7ce4…
05-12 08:13:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4AM ET	Down	SELL	2	56¢	$1	0x385d6f…
05-12 07:55:42	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 12?	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x58e08d…
05-12 07:25:08	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 12?	Up	SELL	3	37¢	$1	0xf1bfd1…
05-12 07:15:37	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 12?	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x149ed3…
05-12 07:08:14	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 12?	No	SELL	2	51¢	$1	0x7bb3db…
05-11 14:51:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x3fe08c…
05-11 14:49:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xeb6a57…
05-11 14:44:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	SELL	4	15¢	$1	0xad5dc9…
05-11 14:41:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xfea685…
05-11 14:33:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	SELL	5	28¢	$1	0x4a4efd…
05-11 14:32:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xd45073…
05-11 14:18:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xd90436…
05-11 14:12:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	SELL	17	12¢	$2	0xfac15d…
05-11 14:10:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x3d83c2…
05-11 13:43:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	SELL	3	66¢	$2	0x5b37af…
05-11 13:33:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x52d8de…
05-11 13:32:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	SELL	3	31¢	$1	0xd22752…
05-11 13:31:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xd01f24…
05-11 13:22:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	SELL	2	54¢	$1	0x6ab0f3…
05-11 13:21:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x354215…
05-11 13:19:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	SELL	2	67¢	$1	0xb9a9bf…
05-11 13:16:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x0128e1…
05-11 09:33:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x8acd1f…
05-11 09:23:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x620d72…
05-11 09:19:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x589142…
05-11 09:18:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0xdcb6a3…
05-11 09:16:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x96b287…
05-11 09:11:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	SELL	2	82¢	$1	0x6268f7…
05-11 09:11:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xca78f7…
05-11 09:08:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xa23d5d…
05-11 09:07:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	SELL	3	50¢	$1	0xdcadfa…
05-11 09:06:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x01e286…
05-11 09:04:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x63d786…
05-11 09:03:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xe0ad63…
05-11 09:02:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	SELL	3	46¢	$1	0xbe098c…
05-11 09:02:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x6cca56…
05-11 08:58:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x81eb5a…
05-11 08:57:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	SELL	2	39¢	$1	0x40a1a5…
05-11 08:56:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x418f5c…
05-11 08:50:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xaee806…
05-11 08:47:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x9ab970…
05-11 08:45:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x1c4366…
05-11 08:36:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x8776e9…
05-11 08:35:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x26140f…
05-11 08:31:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xe66e2e…
05-11 08:30:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x3d2f4b…
05-11 08:26:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	SELL	2	59¢	$1	0x5a235d…
05-11 08:25:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x6049ad…
05-11 08:22:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x90c93b…
05-11 08:19:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xf15ee6…
05-11 08:04:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	SELL	2	57¢	$1	0x998bab…
05-11 08:04:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xd302ef…