Writhing-Shoreline — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$382

Unrealized P&L

-$198

Hit rate

51.1%

Resolved

Trades

1,382

lifetime

Volume

$47.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$34

Open exposure

$43

8 positions

First seen

2026-02-17

last 10-29 17:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 31 days

Categories

Other

49% 43% -$224

Politics

44% 33% -$174

Tech

6% — —

Crypto

1% 20% -$10

Sports

0% 83% +$26

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

56 active days in 12wk • peak 84 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (16) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	Yes	+189	$127	8¢	$14	-$113	10-16 19:00
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	Yes	+156	$34	8¢	$13	-$21	10-24 08:22
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	+101	$41	8¢	$9	-$33	10-29 17:56
Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026?	Yes	+28	$10	24¢	$7	-$3	10-25 05:29
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+0	$2	30¢	$0	-$2	07-20 03:49
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	+0	$0	2¢	$0	+$0	08-29 02:21
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+0	$1	56¢	$0	-$1	10-07 21:33
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?	Yes	+0	$26	4¢	$0	-$26	10-06 12:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	84	$5.0K	5,200	5,200	+0	open	—	08-11 07:45
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	66	$3.2K	3,554	3,554	+0	Yes	+$12	03-27 05:07
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	43	$2.6K	2,556	2,556	+0	No	+$6	03-21 21:57
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	83	$2.5K	2,746	2,559	+187	Yes	-$107	04-03 05:28
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	33	$2.0K	2,000	2,000	+0	Yes	$0	06-03 18:56
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	43	$1.8K	1,800	1,800	+0	No	+$1	04-03 06:15
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	32	$1.7K	1,600	1,600	+0	Yes	-$2	05-27 03:10
Fed rate hike in 2026?	53	$1.6K	1,600	1,600	+0	Yes	+$9	08-20 14:05
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	31	$1.5K	1,501	1,501	-0	No	+$17	05-31 15:41
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	25	$1.4K	1,542	1,542	+0	open	—	08-29 02:21
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	20	$1.3K	1,286	1,286	+0	Yes	-$26	05-14 13:08
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	25	$1.1K	1,096	1,096	+0	open	—	10-27 20:01
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	19	$945	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	06-03 18:56
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	22	$827	824	824	+0	open	—	10-08 14:48
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	19	$779	1,023	834	+189	open	—	10-16 19:00
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	13	$740	922	922	+0	Yes	-$7	05-29 15:03
Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 7?	17	$729	815	815	-0	Yes	-$31	07-18 19:31
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	22	$724	600	600	+0	Yes	+$4	06-06 21:57
Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?	21	$670	501	501	+0	open	—	05-14 22:01
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	10	$634	600	600	+0	open	—	05-07 04:28
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	15	$599	600	600	+0	No	-$17	07-20 17:26
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	10	$573	405	405	+0	open	—	10-09 01:16
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	10	$570	653	653	+0	open	—	06-01 04:31
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?	3	$552	400	400	+0	open	—	05-27 19:03
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	43	$506	734	734	+0	open	—	10-24 13:30
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-08 House seat?	22	$497	400	400	+0	Yes	-$3	09-17 20:08
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	8	$456	542	441	+101	open	—	10-29 17:56
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	8	$428	425	425	+0	open	—	07-20 03:49
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	5	$398	400	400	+0	Yes	-$2	05-09 23:30
Will the Democratic Party win the MI-03 House seat?	7	$396	400	400	+0	Yes	-$8	08-12 14:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 17:56:23	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	150	27¢	$40	0x89c491…
10-27 20:01:11	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	80	52¢	$42	0x8cc43d…
10-27 20:01:03	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	4	52¢	$2	0xf99e78…
10-27 20:01:03	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	4	52¢	$2	0xcafb17…
10-27 20:01:03	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	4	52¢	$2	0x9c547e…
10-27 20:01:03	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	4	52¢	$2	0x0b2201…
10-27 20:01:03	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	4	52¢	$2	0x095aa5…
10-25 05:29:42	Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	14¢	$4	0xd00ae0…
10-24 14:40:38	Will Pump.fun reach $0.0080 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	28¢	$56	0x53d72c…
10-24 13:30:41	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	18¢	$2	0x0ba820…
10-24 10:56:44	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	99	18¢	$18	0x0aa26c…
10-24 08:22:12	Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	23¢	$23	0x1366d0…
10-24 08:22:12	Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	Yes	BUY	55	23¢	$13	0x09fc1c…
10-24 04:22:05	Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026?	Yes	SELL	119	18¢	$21	0x6e26df…
10-24 04:07:17	Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	18¢	$1	0xdbfc69…
10-24 04:02:05	Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	18¢	$3	0x9727bd…
10-24 02:12:23	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	18¢	$4	0x659f49…
10-24 01:54:42	Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	18¢	$0	0x10e791…
10-24 01:06:59	Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026?	Yes	SELL	56	18¢	$10	0xaf3493…
10-24 00:08:24	Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	18¢	$1	0x381967…
10-23 19:54:30	Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	159	21¢	$33	0x45edf1…
10-23 19:54:09	Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	21¢	$9	0xdc1404…
10-23 09:40:51	Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	Yes	SELL	150	20¢	$30	0xbe60a0…
10-23 08:21:50	Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	20¢	$10	0xbe7cb2…
10-23 07:04:06	Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	Yes	BUY	110	19¢	$21	0xb3e9bc…
10-23 07:04:06	Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	Yes	BUY	90	19¢	$17	0x34b59c…
10-23 05:39:42	Will JAY-Z release a new song in 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	38¢	$9	0xfab419…
10-22 20:30:45	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	134	18¢	$24	0x0f2903…
10-22 17:47:11	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	32¢	$64	0xd53e5f…
10-22 15:22:44	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	175	33¢	$58	0x8b4068…
10-22 15:21:26	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	33¢	$8	0x38ba22…
10-21 15:59:06	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	91	27¢	$24	0x9c861e…
10-21 09:21:53	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	8	70¢	$5	0x7d8a7f…
10-20 18:47:14	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	74¢	$148	0x302d38…
10-16 19:00:56	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	170	27¢	$46	0x6d71d2…
10-15 20:32:48	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	200	31¢	$62	0x0573d5…
10-15 08:27:19	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	100	31¢	$31	0x1779ce…
10-15 08:27:17	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	18	31¢	$6	0x67d8d0…
10-15 08:27:17	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	24	31¢	$8	0x3cc6ab…
10-15 06:20:50	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	82	17¢	$14	0x8625c7…
10-15 06:19:04	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	118	17¢	$20	0xcc7bff…
10-15 05:36:44	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	113	19¢	$21	0x4434e3…
10-15 05:36:28	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	68	19¢	$13	0x976fa7…
10-15 05:30:11	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	21¢	$42	0x0dc3f0…
10-14 20:41:07	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	69¢	$138	0x8bdab8…
10-14 17:49:28	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	38¢	$76	0xb1e8fb…
10-12 06:24:09	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	24¢	$1	0x52c1ce…
10-12 06:18:53	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	24¢	$1	0x585e3e…
10-12 04:01:17	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0x3169ab…
10-12 03:54:39	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	24¢	$3	0x3505a5…
10-12 03:54:39	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0x1bc027…
10-12 03:50:12	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	24¢	$0	0xfb03df…
10-12 02:58:59	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	24¢	$1	0xfcaf3b…
10-12 01:32:38	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0xfefa3a…
10-12 00:32:06	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0x05a64e…
10-12 00:32:05	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	24¢	$1	0xf0460e…
10-11 22:27:00	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0x273099…
10-11 22:02:57	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	24¢	$1	0x9d19cb…
10-11 22:02:56	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	76	24¢	$18	0xa37fc0…
10-11 21:42:59	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	24¢	$3	0x8dfb56…
10-11 19:57:46	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	24¢	$0	0x579a5e…
10-11 19:53:21	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0x9230e3…
10-11 18:55:19	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0x7cc601…
10-11 18:27:03	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0xe97b86…
10-11 17:17:25	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	24¢	$1	0xf969e5…
10-11 15:04:12	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	24¢	$2	0x5d52be…
10-11 09:36:45	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0x5b6e52…
10-11 08:39:39	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0xe26658…
10-11 08:39:37	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	24¢	$1	0x4e7a45…
10-11 08:38:37	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0x8556f2…
10-11 08:38:34	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	24¢	$1	0x0e951d…
10-11 08:37:42	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	23¢	$46	0xdea39f…
10-10 15:05:49	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	200	29¢	$58	0x6853c9…
10-10 07:29:30	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	200	28¢	$56	0x6c28d2…
10-09 19:27:55	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	118	31¢	$36	0x9732b8…
10-09 19:27:55	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	31¢	$16	0x0a79c8…
10-09 19:14:22	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	31¢	$10	0x4368bf…
10-09 19:05:37	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	31¢	$62	0xef4ff4…
10-09 14:56:09	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	8	69¢	$5	0x9af0c2…
10-09 06:53:13	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	35¢	$70	0x90c541…
10-09 01:16:44	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	141	67¢	$94	0x9dad69…
10-08 21:09:41	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	67¢	$1	0xf0c8f3…
10-08 14:48:14	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	25¢	$50	0xc7a8e8…
10-08 14:43:59	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	33¢	$66	0xcc7289…
10-08 09:44:06	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	71	68¢	$48	0x8e4771…
10-08 09:42:12	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	68¢	$4	0x4542bf…
10-08 09:41:51	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	68¢	$34	0x582143…
10-08 09:38:05	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	55	68¢	$37	0x72dcf9…
10-08 09:37:35	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	18	68¢	$12	0x362dea…
10-08 09:34:41	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	69¢	$138	0x66d588…
10-07 23:12:13	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	100	55¢	$55	0xe0e311…
10-07 21:33:49	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	200	44¢	$88	0x427eb4…
10-07 21:33:45	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	200	44¢	$88	0xb7c9f6…
10-07 21:02:58	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	200	28¢	$56	0xbfb039…
10-07 11:48:32	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	67¢	$3	0xc1be8a…
10-07 07:23:47	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	95	29¢	$28	0xf47233…
10-07 06:25:39	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	67¢	$1	0x116518…
10-07 05:57:20	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	29¢	$10	0x520c87…
10-07 01:56:02	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	24	72¢	$17	0xae858b…
10-06 20:40:15	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	53	37¢	$20	0x9d7797…