Grown-Billion — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$12

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.2%

Resolved

Trades

608

lifetime

Volume

$45.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$74

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-07 08:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

42% 100% +$11

Tech

38% — —

Politics

12% 50% +$1

Sports

6% — —

Crypto

2% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

56 active days in 12wk • peak 34 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?	3	$5.6K	2,805	2,805	+0	open	—	04-20 20:42
Will 2–3 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	27	$2.8K	3,095	0	+3,095	open	—	04-19 12:35
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	12	$2.5K	2,214	1,998	+216	open	—	07-31 11:09
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	33	$2.3K	1,700	1,500	+200	open	—	07-07 13:32
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	15	$1.9K	66	2,151	-2,085	open	—	06-24 14:58
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	11	$1.8K	2,842	1,372	+1,471	open	—	07-31 11:10
will claude sonnet 5 debut at a score of at least 1500 by december 31 2026 20260630195126945	8	$1.7K	983	725	+258	open	—	07-04 19:02
will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	18	$1.4K	1,613	685	+928	open	—	06-30 17:45
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by august 31	12	$1.4K	886	886	+0	open	—	06-24 11:19
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	6	$1.2K	600	600	+0	open	—	05-27 16:06
us government removes public access to another anthropic ai model in 2026 20260703203121674	25	$1.2K	782	782	+0	open	—	07-06 23:15
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	5	$941	1,195	312	+883	open	—	04-30 21:51
Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	17	$930	1,510	700	+810	open	—	07-24 05:57
gpt 5pt5 released by april 23 2026 377 628 858 953 367 983 595	15	$895	1,081	0	+1,081	open	—	04-23 13:13
will claude sonnet 5 debut at a score of at least 1470 by december 31 2026 20260630195126942	4	$889	902	0	+902	open	—	07-03 11:25
will the next claude opus model be released by august 31 2026 20260701204710233 223 869	2	$848	896	0	+896	open	—	07-15 08:51
will gpt bidi 1 be released by july 31 2026	5	$736	439	439	+0	open	—	07-08 15:33
tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	6	$640	420	420	+0	open	—	06-22 19:43
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	4	$635	750	0	+750	open	—	06-02 22:27
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	7	$633	468	468	+0	open	—	08-04 17:01
grok 4pt4 released by july 8	8	$613	364	254	+110	open	—	07-08 18:02
will openai release a new frontier model on or before july 31 2026	2	$613	633	0	+633	open	—	07-04 19:03
gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	22	$510	342	342	+0	open	—	08-06 18:36
will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	12	$502	389	389	+0	open	—	06-24 11:39
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?	15	$501	738	831	-93	open	—	04-29 22:19
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	11	$469	546	0	+546	open	—	04-23 13:05
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026?	4	$433	276	176	+100	open	—	04-21 22:09
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	3	$429	522	0	+522	open	—	07-08 16:05
will claude sonnet 5 debut at a score of at least 1480 by december 31 2026 20260630195126943	3	$403	407	0	+407	open	—	07-03 11:26
will the next claude opus debut at a score of at least 1520 by december 31 2026 20260715004553753	1	$346	374	0	+374	open	—	07-26 09:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-07 08:32:42	us government removes public access to another major ai model in 2026 20260703202936862	No	SELL	7	84¢	$6	0x5ce2fc…
08-06 18:36:39	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0xa99e21…
08-06 17:18:53	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	SELL	170	82¢	$139	0x9abcaf…
08-04 17:01:47	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	234	69¢	$162	0x926bc0…
08-04 15:31:36	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	17	67¢	$11	0xcf69a2…
08-04 15:17:21	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	12	67¢	$8	0x7b03e8…
08-04 14:54:32	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x3f8353…
08-04 14:50:45	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0x1db254…
08-04 14:48:56	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0x9b8caf…
08-04 14:37:17	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	30	67¢	$20	0xa96578…
08-04 14:36:29	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	61	67¢	$41	0xb37deb…
08-04 14:16:26	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xab2823…
08-04 14:02:44	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0x2848fb…
08-04 13:33:30	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xb20329…
08-04 13:30:09	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	91	67¢	$61	0x419651…
08-04 13:23:50	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	30	67¢	$20	0x579ae7…
08-04 13:05:03	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x13f2b2…
08-04 13:02:41	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x4f8263…
08-04 13:00:53	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xcf3461…
08-04 12:31:50	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0xc8f272…
08-04 12:27:47	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0x4bcc07…
08-04 12:26:32	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x8a15de…
07-31 14:12:38	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	42	69¢	$29	0x852c03…
07-31 11:10:53	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	521	31¢	$160	0x727198…
07-31 11:09:15	Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	49	45¢	$22	0xb65187…
07-31 11:08:38	Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,393	61¢	$845	0xf18dc8…
07-31 11:07:18	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	No	BUY	200	81¢	$162	0x6f5ced…
07-27 10:33:27	Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	450	64¢	$288	0x0e023d…
07-27 08:52:30	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	850	52¢	$445	0x1b3308…
07-26 09:05:43	will the next claude opus debut at a score of at least 1520 by december 31 2026 20260715004553753	No	BUY	374	92¢	$346	0x8066d7…
07-24 17:55:37	Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	155	70¢	$109	0xfbfa20…
07-24 13:58:24	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	BUY	300	49¢	$147	0xc8da9b…
07-24 05:57:43	Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	360	17¢	$61	0xde73d2…
07-20 09:56:57	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875	Yes	SELL	150	91¢	$136	0x569dca…
07-20 08:59:58	Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	210	12¢	$25	0x7ed5bf…
07-15 08:51:43	will the next claude opus model be released by august 31 2026 20260701204710233 223 869	Yes	BUY	650	94¢	$613	0x1bf40c…
07-14 17:38:22	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343	Yes	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0x9a1b78…
07-14 17:37:40	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343	Yes	BUY	173	91¢	$157	0x79bd4c…
07-14 17:37:10	will the next claude opus model be released by august 31 2026 20260701204710233	Yes	BUY	246	96¢	$235	0x6aa47c…
07-13 20:48:52	iran military action against a gulf state on july 9 20260708212322934	Yes	BUY	25	79¢	$20	0x0c0df0…
07-13 20:48:49	iran military action against a gulf state on july 9 20260708212322934	Yes	BUY	50	79¢	$40	0xca9eb8…
07-13 20:42:23	iran military action against a gulf state on july 9 20260708212322934	Yes	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x959dcd…
07-13 20:32:34	iran military action against a gulf state on july 9 20260708212322934	Yes	BUY	64	89¢	$57	0x96f5e1…
07-13 09:45:23	Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	45¢	$22	0x81252f…
07-12 04:43:46	Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	46	70¢	$32	0x5ee4ba…
07-11 00:33:29	Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	45¢	$5	0x30bac8…
07-11 00:33:25	Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	46¢	$46	0xf7dafb…
07-10 21:55:14	Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?	No	SELL	55	83¢	$46	0xd7edca…
07-10 14:59:37	another world cup card reversed 20260706193823524	No	BUY	45	96¢	$43	0x3c1f09…
07-10 13:54:32	Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	124	46¢	$57	0x883644…
07-10 12:01:40	Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	176	46¢	$81	0x67b544…
07-10 02:52:26	Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	47¢	$19	0xd69009…
07-09 20:58:43	Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	47¢	$19	0xe5a233…
07-09 20:02:07	Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x4978cc…
07-09 15:26:26	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	68¢	$41	0x8841ac…
07-09 15:26:25	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	68¢	$8	0xcc066b…
07-09 15:26:23	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	156	68¢	$106	0xb7e5b9…
07-09 15:16:22	will the next gpt model released by openai debut at a score of at least 1490 by december 31 2026	No	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0x9cb582…
07-09 14:39:32	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by august 31	No	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xb9b55b…
07-09 14:39:19	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by august 31	No	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x746c63…
07-09 14:39:10	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by december 31 128	Yes	BUY	63	43¢	$27	0xb29736…
07-09 14:38:46	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by august 31	No	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0xbdd90c…
07-09 06:22:04	Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?	No	SELL	12	83¢	$10	0xbd3d79…
07-09 02:24:02	Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xb59311…
07-08 23:49:25	Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$0	0x44a872…
07-08 22:59:14	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	205	54¢	$111	0x0705f8…
07-08 22:58:52	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	151	53¢	$80	0x29cebe…
07-08 22:57:43	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	214	50¢	$108	0xb93cef…
07-08 20:14:47	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	200	78¢	$156	0xae35f9…
07-08 20:13:17	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	33	78¢	$26	0xf742cc…
07-08 18:02:55	grok 4pt4 released by july 8	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x60ea7d…
07-08 18:02:32	grok 4pt4 released by july 8	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xe094d9…
07-08 17:47:55	grok 4pt4 released by july 8	Yes	SELL	60	100¢	$60	0xda66b8…
07-08 17:46:44	grok 4pt4 released by july 8	Yes	BUY	60	99¢	$60	0x836060…
07-08 17:44:56	grok 4pt4 released by july 8	Yes	BUY	168	98¢	$165	0x46f1c5…
07-08 17:44:07	grok 4pt4 released by july 8	Yes	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xcee643…
07-08 17:43:22	grok 4pt4 released by july 8	Yes	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x61ef47…
07-08 16:05:44	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	235	83¢	$195	0x451e77…
07-08 16:05:25	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	144	82¢	$118	0x405028…
07-08 16:04:50	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	65¢	$65	0x78dbed…
07-08 16:04:29	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	140	64¢	$90	0x7f9835…
07-08 16:04:10	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	144	81¢	$116	0x807970…
07-08 15:33:47	will gpt bidi 1 be released by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	211	97¢	$204	0x6835c1…
07-08 13:41:23	Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	59¢	$59	0xf48528…
07-08 13:41:23	Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0xd08e81…
07-08 13:41:23	Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	58¢	$29	0x9f5413…
07-08 12:02:13	will gpt bidi 1 be released by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	228	79¢	$180	0x746aeb…
07-08 02:24:08	Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	0	70¢	$0	0x053d6e…
07-08 02:24:07	Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	183	70¢	$128	0x354ab5…
07-07 20:44:50	Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0x0b930d…
07-07 17:34:01	will ansem flip pump by december 31 2026 20260702152126830	No	SELL	90	74¢	$67	0x552ef7…
07-07 16:39:14	Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0x53fc6d…
07-07 14:07:55	will the next gpt model released by openai debut at a score of at least 1470 by december 31 2026 654	Yes	BUY	1	40¢	$0	0x3287f5…
07-07 14:00:26	will the next gpt model released by openai debut at a score of at least 1470 by december 31 2026 654	Yes	BUY	1	40¢	$0	0xa17db3…
07-07 13:32:46	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	600	85¢	$510	0xbb9f2a…
07-07 10:19:53	Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	400	51¢	$204	0xf4ec50…
07-07 09:37:58	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	400	84¢	$336	0x9ec751…
07-07 09:32:40	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	400	84¢	$336	0xfc9908…
07-07 08:49:59	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	300	53¢	$159	0xb1fdcf…
07-07 08:49:29	Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	400	50¢	$200	0xcd2e73…