Grown-Billion — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.21K

Unrealized P&L

-$240

Hit rate

82.1%

Resolved

135

Trades

765

lifetime

Volume

$53.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$69

Open exposure

$3.15K

17 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 09-05 01:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 59 days

Categories

Other

43% 71% +$266

Tech

40% 76% +$455

Politics

10% 71% +$128

Sports

5% 100% +$250

Crypto

1% 100% +$115

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (17) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	-1,951	-$1,686	97¢	$-1900	-$215	06-24 14:58
Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026?	No	+303	$221	97¢	$293	+$72	05-12 20:04
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?	No	+363	$178	78¢	$283	+$105	08-19 14:56
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	+408	$319	38¢	$157	-$162	07-04 18:14
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	+130	$44	98¢	$128	+$84	06-01 21:02
Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	-100	-$92	98¢	$-98	-$6	05-23 05:04
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	+216	$48	44¢	$94	+$46	07-31 11:09
USDC depeg by December 31?	No	-93	-$91	99¢	$-92	-$1	05-06 12:39
Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?	Yes	+155	$52	19¢	$29	-$23	05-23 16:25
Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	+30	$23	95¢	$28	+$6	07-02 01:57
Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026?	Yes	+414	$70	3¢	$14	-$57	06-14 11:01
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	-13	-$12	98¢	$-13	-$1	05-14 03:14
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	No	-10	-$8	94¢	$-10	-$2	05-11 16:36
Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?	No	+7	-$4	94¢	$6	+$10	07-10 21:55
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	OpenAI	+130	$98	2¢	$2	-$96	05-26 20:24
will the next google gemini pro model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510	No	+2	$1	94¢	$1	+$0	06-10 15:29
Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?	Yes	+7	$2	6¢	$0	-$1	05-24 17:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?	3	$5.6K	2,805	2,805	+0	Yes	+$22	04-20 20:42
Will 2–3 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	27	$2.8K	3,095	0	+3,095	No	+$252	04-19 12:35
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	12	$2.5K	2,214	1,998	+216	open	—	07-31 11:09
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	33	$2.3K	1,700	1,500	+200	Yes	+$248	07-07 13:32
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	21	$2.1K	300	2,251	-1,951	open	—	06-24 14:58
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	11	$1.8K	2,842	1,372	+1,471	Yes	+$115	07-31 11:10
will claude sonnet 5 debut at a score of at least 1500 by december 31 2026 20260630195126945	8	$1.7K	983	725	+258	No	+$15	07-04 19:02
Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in June 2026?	4	$1.4K	715	715	+0	No	+$7	06-23 16:48
will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	18	$1.4K	1,613	685	+928	Yes	-$215	06-30 17:45
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by august 31	12	$1.4K	886	886	+0	Yes	+$40	06-24 11:19
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	6	$1.2K	600	600	+0	No	+$8	05-27 16:06
us government removes public access to another anthropic ai model in 2026 20260703203121674	25	$1.2K	782	782	+0	open	—	07-06 23:15
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	5	$941	1,195	312	+883	No	-$2	04-30 21:51
Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	17	$930	1,510	700	+810	Yes	-$170	07-24 05:57
gpt 5pt5 released by april 23 2026 377 628 858 953 367 983 595	15	$895	1,081	0	+1,081	Yes	+$186	04-23 13:13
will claude sonnet 5 debut at a score of at least 1470 by december 31 2026 20260630195126942	4	$889	902	0	+902	No	+$13	07-03 11:25
will the next claude opus model be released by august 31 2026 20260701204710233 223 869	2	$848	896	0	+896	Yes	+$47	07-15 08:51
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	6	$795	522	522	+0	Yes	-$64	08-28 16:16
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19?	12	$745	442	400	+42	Yes	+$9	05-12 21:50
will gpt bidi 1 be released by july 31 2026	5	$736	439	439	+0	Yes	+$33	07-08 15:33
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	11	$729	745	234	+511	Yes	+$119	07-09 17:41
US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?	7	$660	468	468	+0	open	—	09-05 01:06
tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	6	$640	420	420	+0	No	-$2	06-22 19:43
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	4	$635	750	0	+750	No	+$115	06-02 22:27
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	7	$633	468	468	+0	Yes	+$13	08-04 17:01
grok 4pt4 released by july 8	8	$613	364	254	+110	Yes	+$4	07-08 18:02
will openai release a new frontier model on or before july 31 2026	2	$613	633	0	+633	Yes	+$20	07-04 19:03
gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	22	$510	342	342	+0	open	—	08-06 18:36
Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026?	15	$504	855	138	+717	open	—	06-14 11:01
will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	12	$502	389	389	+0	No	+$90	06-24 11:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-05 01:06:55	US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?	No	SELL	373	84¢	$314	0xbd166d…
09-03 04:38:43	US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?	No	SELL	40	84¢	$34	0x1117ef…
09-02 13:11:12	US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?	No	SELL	8	84¢	$6	0x4655ad…
08-31 13:19:00	Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	91¢	$182	0xb1384b…
08-29 10:15:09	US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?	No	SELL	20	84¢	$17	0xc0d132…
08-28 20:11:54	google maps renames lake ontario to lake america by august 31 2026	No	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0xd38a1d…
08-28 16:16:58	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	267	70¢	$187	0xf4c0df…
08-28 16:16:54	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	70¢	$140	0x53b842…
08-28 16:16:48	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	55	70¢	$39	0xb86676…
08-26 03:47:00	US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?	No	SELL	20	84¢	$17	0x2cd089…
08-20 10:58:40	will the next google gemini pro model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490	No	SELL	55	30¢	$16	0x51dc2d…
08-20 10:58:37	will the next google gemini pro model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490	No	SELL	1	30¢	$0	0x61fd9d…
08-19 14:56:39	SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?	No	BUY	363	49¢	$178	0x8c8523…
08-16 20:19:36	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by august 31	No	SELL	35	99¢	$35	0x59090b…
08-15 11:33:54	Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	188	92¢	$173	0x66a851…
08-15 11:31:49	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by december 31 128	Yes	SELL	63	24¢	$15	0x53657a…
08-07 08:32:42	us government removes public access to another major ai model in 2026 20260703202936862	No	SELL	7	84¢	$6	0x5ce2fc…
08-06 18:36:39	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0xa99e21…
08-06 17:18:53	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	SELL	170	82¢	$139	0x9abcaf…
08-04 17:01:47	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	234	69¢	$162	0x926bc0…
08-04 15:31:36	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	17	67¢	$11	0xcf69a2…
08-04 15:17:21	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	12	67¢	$8	0x7b03e8…
08-04 14:54:32	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x3f8353…
08-04 14:50:45	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0x1db254…
08-04 14:48:56	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0x9b8caf…
08-04 14:37:17	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	30	67¢	$20	0xa96578…
08-04 14:36:29	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	61	67¢	$41	0xb37deb…
08-04 14:16:26	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xab2823…
08-04 14:02:44	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0x2848fb…
08-04 13:33:30	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xb20329…
08-04 13:30:09	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	91	67¢	$61	0x419651…
08-04 13:23:50	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	30	67¢	$20	0x579ae7…
08-04 13:05:03	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x13f2b2…
08-04 13:02:41	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x4f8263…
08-04 13:00:53	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xcf3461…
08-04 12:31:50	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0xc8f272…
08-04 12:27:47	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0x4bcc07…
08-04 12:26:32	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x8a15de…
07-31 14:12:38	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	42	69¢	$29	0x852c03…
07-31 11:10:53	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	521	31¢	$160	0x727198…
07-31 11:09:15	Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	49	45¢	$22	0xb65187…
07-31 11:08:38	Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,393	61¢	$845	0xf18dc8…
07-31 11:07:18	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	No	BUY	200	81¢	$162	0x6f5ced…
07-27 10:33:27	Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	450	64¢	$288	0x0e023d…
07-27 08:52:30	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	850	52¢	$445	0x1b3308…
07-26 09:05:43	will the next claude opus debut at a score of at least 1520 by december 31 2026 20260715004553753	No	BUY	374	92¢	$346	0x8066d7…
07-24 17:55:37	Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	155	70¢	$109	0xfbfa20…
07-24 13:58:24	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	BUY	300	49¢	$147	0xc8da9b…
07-24 05:57:43	Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	360	17¢	$61	0xde73d2…
07-23 12:15:51	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	93¢	$20	0x2362e3…
07-23 12:15:28	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	49	97¢	$48	0x92a174…
07-20 09:56:57	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875	Yes	SELL	150	91¢	$136	0x569dca…
07-20 08:59:58	Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	210	12¢	$25	0x7ed5bf…
07-15 08:51:43	will the next claude opus model be released by august 31 2026 20260701204710233 223 869	Yes	BUY	650	94¢	$613	0x1bf40c…
07-14 17:38:22	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343	Yes	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0x9a1b78…
07-14 17:37:40	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343	Yes	BUY	173	91¢	$157	0x79bd4c…
07-14 17:37:10	will the next claude opus model be released by august 31 2026 20260701204710233	Yes	BUY	246	96¢	$235	0x6aa47c…
07-13 20:48:52	iran military action against a gulf state on july 9 20260708212322934	Yes	BUY	25	79¢	$20	0x0c0df0…
07-13 20:48:49	iran military action against a gulf state on july 9 20260708212322934	Yes	BUY	50	79¢	$40	0xca9eb8…
07-13 20:42:23	iran military action against a gulf state on july 9 20260708212322934	Yes	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x959dcd…
07-13 20:32:34	iran military action against a gulf state on july 9 20260708212322934	Yes	BUY	64	89¢	$57	0x96f5e1…
07-13 09:45:23	Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	45¢	$22	0x81252f…
07-12 04:43:46	Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	46	70¢	$32	0x5ee4ba…
07-11 00:33:29	Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	45¢	$5	0x30bac8…
07-11 00:33:25	Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	46¢	$46	0xf7dafb…
07-10 21:55:14	Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?	No	SELL	55	83¢	$46	0xd7edca…
07-10 17:07:10	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	63¢	$63	0x6f7607…
07-10 17:06:56	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	94	61¢	$57	0x7bd1b1…
07-10 17:06:52	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	115	60¢	$69	0x6b34f5…
07-10 17:04:19	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	90	18¢	$16	0x1a9f64…
07-10 14:59:37	another world cup card reversed 20260706193823524	No	BUY	45	96¢	$43	0x3c1f09…
07-10 13:54:32	Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	124	46¢	$57	0x883644…
07-10 12:01:40	Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	176	46¢	$81	0x67b544…
07-10 02:52:26	Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	47¢	$19	0xd69009…
07-09 20:58:43	Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	47¢	$19	0xe5a233…
07-09 20:02:07	Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x4978cc…
07-09 17:41:35	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	66¢	$12	0xcd211b…
07-09 15:50:11	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	66¢	$28	0x36c40d…
07-09 15:26:26	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	68¢	$41	0x8841ac…
07-09 15:26:25	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	68¢	$8	0xcc066b…
07-09 15:26:23	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	156	68¢	$106	0xb7e5b9…
07-09 15:16:22	will the next gpt model released by openai debut at a score of at least 1490 by december 31 2026	No	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0x9cb582…
07-09 14:56:35	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	29¢	$29	0x791299…
07-09 14:39:32	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by august 31	No	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xb9b55b…
07-09 14:39:19	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by august 31	No	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x746c63…
07-09 14:39:10	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by december 31 128	Yes	BUY	63	43¢	$27	0xb29736…
07-09 14:38:46	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by august 31	No	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0xbdd90c…
07-09 09:40:38	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	31¢	$2	0x8652a2…
07-09 06:22:04	Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?	No	SELL	12	83¢	$10	0xbd3d79…
07-09 02:24:02	Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xb59311…
07-08 23:49:25	Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$0	0x44a872…
07-08 22:59:14	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	205	54¢	$111	0x0705f8…
07-08 22:58:52	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	151	53¢	$80	0x29cebe…
07-08 22:57:43	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	214	50¢	$108	0xb93cef…
07-08 22:50:16	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	29¢	$29	0x05f66c…
07-08 22:48:20	Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	141	93¢	$131	0x631c4b…
07-08 20:14:47	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	200	78¢	$156	0xae35f9…
07-08 20:13:17	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	33	78¢	$26	0xf742cc…
07-08 18:02:55	grok 4pt4 released by july 8	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x60ea7d…
07-08 18:02:32	grok 4pt4 released by july 8	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xe094d9…