Wary-Elicit — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$34

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

59.3%

Resolved

Trades

171

lifetime

Volume

$599

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$20

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-26

last 10-14 16:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 23 days

Categories

Other

82% 29% +$21

Politics

11% 100% +$11

Sports

8% 75% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Ukraine coup attempt by December 31, 2026?	No		+20	$19	97¢	$19	+$1	10-14 16:42
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes		+38	$5	3¢	$1	-$4	06-21 18:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	1	$57	61	0	+61	Usyk	+$4	05-23 09:34
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 8?	3	$51	44	44	+0	Yes	+$37	05-08 14:48
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	4	$31	38	0	+38	No	+$7	05-04 22:04
fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 total 0pt5	1	$30	32	0	+32	Over	+$2	07-07 10:17
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 6?	1	$25	30	0	+30	Yes	+$5	05-06 11:00
Ukraine coup attempt by December 31, 2026?	2	$19	20	0	+20	open	—	10-14 16:42
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 6?	28	$18	1,227	270	+957	No	-$8	05-05 21:54
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?	2	$17	10	10	+0	No	$0	05-03 10:58
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C or higher on May 5?	5	$17	15	15	+0	Yes	-$3	05-05 12:15
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on May 15?	1	$15	41	0	+41	No	-$15	05-14 19:48
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 15?	1	$15	25	0	+25	Yes	+$10	05-14 19:48
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or higher on May 12?	2	$14	25	0	+25	Yes	+$11	05-11 20:13
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on May 13?	2	$13	36	36	+0	No	-$7	05-12 20:02
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 penalty shootout	2	$11	16	16	+0	No	-$9	07-19 21:45
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C or higher on May 12?	1	$10	25	0	+25	Yes	+$15	05-11 20:11
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?	1	$10	14	0	+14	Yes	+$4	07-07 10:21
The Day: Naoya Inoue vs. Junto Nakatani	1	$10	12	0	+12	Inoue	+$2	05-02 10:13
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	05-03 10:28
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	05-03 10:28
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?	1	$9	10	0	+10	No	+$1	05-02 18:10
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 8, 2026?	1	$8	10	0	+10	No	+$2	10-06 08:59
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 13?	2	$8	10	0	+10	Yes	+$2	05-12 19:59
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 7?	12	$7	177	0	+177	No	-$7	05-07 08:37
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026?	1	$7	10	0	+10	No	+$3	10-06 08:59
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026?	1	$7	10	0	+10	No	+$3	10-06 08:59
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on May 6?	1	$6	10	0	+10	No	+$4	05-05 23:07
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026?	1	$6	10	0	+10	No	+$4	10-06 08:59
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on May 14?	2	$6	53	0	+53	No	-$6	05-13 20:00
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 7?	4	$5	338	0	+338	Yes	-$5	05-07 08:30
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 7?	1	$5	250	0	+250	No	-$5	05-07 08:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-14 16:42:16	Ukraine coup attempt by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	93¢	$5	0xc392e3…
10-06 11:06:54	Ukraine coup attempt by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	93¢	$13	0x2eb058…
10-06 08:59:49	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 8, 2026?	No	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0x60055f…
10-06 08:59:43	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x619eb3…
10-06 08:59:39	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x62ece1…
10-06 08:59:25	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0xf05ed0…
07-19 21:45:00	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 penalty shootout	Yes	SELL	16	9¢	$1	0x7cdfae…
07-19 21:42:19	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 penalty shootout	Yes	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x78cd85…
07-07 10:21:22	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0x050f1c…
07-07 10:17:47	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 total 0pt5	Over	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0xee0b8f…
06-21 18:49:22	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x24c493…
05-23 09:34:12	Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	Usyk	BUY	61	94¢	$57	0x8d940a…
05-16 20:14:02	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 17?	Yes	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x35c300…
05-16 20:13:58	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 17?	Yes	BUY	32	15¢	$5	0x86afc0…
05-16 20:13:23	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 17?	Yes	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x3db738…
05-14 19:48:58	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on May 15?	Yes	BUY	41	37¢	$15	0xaac88e…
05-14 19:48:46	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 15?	Yes	BUY	25	61¢	$15	0xd74c59…
05-13 20:24:01	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or below on May 14?	Yes	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0x8f6348…
05-13 20:03:57	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 14?	Yes	BUY	13	23¢	$3	0x7fbeda…
05-13 20:00:48	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on May 14?	Yes	BUY	21	14¢	$3	0x7e3734…
05-13 20:00:28	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 14?	Yes	BUY	45	7¢	$3	0xb9119d…
05-13 19:59:57	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on May 14?	Yes	BUY	32	9¢	$3	0x69ac35…
05-13 19:59:53	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 14?	Yes	BUY	14	21¢	$3	0x5e0a92…
05-12 20:02:12	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on May 13?	Yes	SELL	36	9¢	$3	0x43da97…
05-12 19:59:30	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 13?	Yes	BUY	2	76¢	$2	0x2844b6…
05-12 19:56:49	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 13?	Yes	BUY	8	76¢	$6	0x020468…
05-12 19:54:37	Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 13?	Yes	BUY	19	16¢	$3	0x2665d2…
05-12 19:54:30	Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 13?	Yes	BUY	11	28¢	$3	0xc9689b…
05-12 19:53:29	Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xdd4157…
05-12 19:49:59	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on May 13?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x2d0e01…
05-12 19:49:56	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on May 13?	Yes	BUY	12	9¢	$1	0xb29cf5…
05-12 19:49:47	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C or higher on May 13?	Yes	BUY	104	1¢	$1	0xd42f7e…
05-12 19:48:26	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 13?	Yes	BUY	24	8¢	$2	0x637bfa…
05-12 19:48:19	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 13?	Yes	BUY	101	2¢	$2	0x464243…
05-12 19:47:29	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C or higher on May 12?	Yes	SELL	30	4¢	$1	0x58bb78…
05-12 19:47:15	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on May 12?	No	SELL	38	5¢	$2	0xceaa97…
05-12 19:46:47	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on May 12?	No	BUY	41	7¢	$3	0xefabd1…
05-12 15:02:38	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C or higher on May 12?	Yes	BUY	30	7¢	$2	0x6c1ad2…
05-11 20:13:43	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or higher on May 12?	Yes	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0x39ec5a…
05-11 20:13:06	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or higher on May 12?	Yes	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x7c60b6…
05-11 20:11:21	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C or higher on May 12?	Yes	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0x7324ee…
05-11 20:09:52	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on May 13?	Yes	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0xcf7039…
05-11 16:12:14	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C on May 12?	Yes	BUY	4	30¢	$1	0xfbc10b…
05-11 15:00:57	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on May 11?	Yes	BUY	168	0¢	$1	0xb10e97…
05-11 15:00:52	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on May 11?	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0xdf0fb1…
05-11 15:00:49	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on May 11?	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$1	0xca2734…
05-11 15:00:36	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on May 11?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x59dba4…
05-11 15:00:24	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on May 11?	Yes	BUY	60	0¢	$0	0x279c6c…
05-11 14:57:34	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on May 11?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xe7271b…
05-11 14:57:34	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on May 11?	Yes	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0x68b600…
05-11 14:57:31	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on May 11?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x36d4b9…
05-11 14:57:26	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on May 11?	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x6d1926…
05-11 14:57:15	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on May 11?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xccf2c8…
05-11 14:57:15	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on May 11?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x61c40c…
05-11 14:57:15	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on May 11?	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x1de34b…
05-11 14:57:12	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on May 11?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x9c4015…
05-11 14:57:12	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on May 11?	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x64c69c…
05-11 14:57:12	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on May 11?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x0c5731…
05-11 14:57:10	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on May 11?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x742703…
05-11 14:57:10	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on May 11?	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x6120e8…
05-11 14:57:10	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on May 11?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x5fba7d…
05-11 14:57:10	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on May 11?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x4bb517…
05-11 14:57:10	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on May 11?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x29254f…
05-11 14:57:10	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on May 11?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x216085…
05-11 14:57:10	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on May 11?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x0ab324…
05-11 14:50:19	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on May 11?	Yes	BUY	22	2¢	$0	0xd4e576…
05-09 20:02:15	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on May 10?	Yes	BUY	30	12¢	$4	0x980361…
05-09 19:58:48	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 10?	Yes	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0xbb466f…
05-09 08:40:49	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on May 9?	Yes	BUY	9	12¢	$1	0x6f147a…
05-09 08:35:38	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on May 9?	Yes	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0xda3b88…
05-09 08:34:42	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on May 9?	Yes	BUY	57	2¢	$1	0x87d120…
05-09 08:32:41	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 14°C or below on May 9?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x98e778…
05-09 08:30:28	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on May 9?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xefc945…
05-09 08:28:54	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 14°C or below on May 9?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0xb528e3…
05-09 08:28:54	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on May 9?	Yes	BUY	8	2¢	$0	0x3959d5…
05-09 08:25:41	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 9?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xc4e6fc…
05-08 17:03:38	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on May 9?	Yes	BUY	38	5¢	$2	0x089d89…
05-08 14:52:13	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on May 9?	Yes	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x9ab524…
05-08 14:52:03	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on May 9?	Yes	BUY	66	8¢	$5	0xfef0c9…
05-08 14:51:26	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on May 9?	Yes	BUY	34	15¢	$5	0x9a16f0…
05-08 14:51:21	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C or higher on May 8?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0xed6eef…
05-08 14:50:16	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on May 8?	Yes	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0xac52c1…
05-08 14:50:05	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on May 9?	Yes	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x3f88cb…
05-08 14:49:44	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on May 9?	Yes	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0xf72245…
05-08 14:49:34	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on May 9?	Yes	BUY	13	40¢	$5	0x1825b1…
05-08 14:49:20	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on May 8?	Yes	BUY	29	18¢	$5	0x28a27c…
05-08 14:48:10	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 8?	Yes	SELL	44	100¢	$44	0xd9be18…
05-07 21:24:34	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 7?	Yes	BUY	12	2¢	$0	0xa984aa…
05-07 21:21:40	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 7?	Yes	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0xb83797…
05-07 21:18:00	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 7?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xdd062c…
05-07 21:16:13	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 7?	Yes	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0xe101ee…
05-07 21:15:59	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 7?	Yes	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0xdc7ec8…
05-07 19:06:12	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 8?	Yes	BUY	40	15¢	$6	0xb6fe2f…
05-07 19:04:23	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 8?	Yes	BUY	4	15¢	$1	0x168501…
05-07 08:37:15	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 7?	Yes	BUY	12	5¢	$1	0xf9d303…
05-07 08:32:08	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 7?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x85ca41…
05-07 08:32:07	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 7?	Yes	BUY	22	5¢	$1	0x8a89c6…
05-07 08:30:43	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 7?	No	BUY	147	2¢	$2	0x93c0ae…
05-07 08:30:30	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 7?	Yes	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0x1bc0d9…
05-07 08:29:52	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 7?	Yes	BUY	35	5¢	$2	0x894c1f…