Somber-Merit — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$528

Unrealized P&L

-$936

Hit rate

51.1%

Resolved

200

Trades

8,355

lifetime

Volume

$393.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$47

Open exposure

$652

6 positions

First seen

2026-04-24

last 10-04 18:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 60 days

Categories

Politics

56% 51% +$858

Crypto

29% 29% +$1,219

Other

15% 22% -$2,531

Sports

0% 67% -$75

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	-2,515	$111	17¢	$-428	-$538	06-26 16:00
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+5,150	$616	4¢	$193	-$423	05-09 18:56
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	-10,000	-$105	0¢	$-15	+$90	05-01 15:44
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?	Yes	+363	$54	3¢	$11	-$44	06-22 22:50
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+200	$20	2¢	$5	-$15	06-03 23:43
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+28	$7	3¢	$1	-$6	05-28 12:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	954	$75.5K	1,461,376	1,600,384	-139,008	No	-$635	06-03 23:59
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	473	$48.0K	119,226	121,741	-2,515	open	—	06-26 16:00
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	640	$15.1K	63,980	74,488	-10,508	No	+$862	05-31 20:12
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	156	$14.6K	21,324	26,863	-5,538	Yes	-$66	06-01 12:01
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	388	$13.2K	40,384	39,967	+417	No	+$697	06-16 01:05
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	64	$10.4K	14,887	14,887	+0	No	+$160	05-30 00:04
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	82	$9.8K	15,583	17,809	-2,226	Yes	+$600	06-05 23:52
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	93	$8.7K	13,161	13,526	-365	Yes	+$1,121	05-28 19:30
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	233	$8.7K	26,045	26,904	-859	No	-$246	05-25 23:00
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	124	$8.7K	9,880	9,880	+0	open	—	06-21 13:18
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	78	$8.3K	12,486	12,603	-117	No	+$799	05-23 20:17
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	98	$8.0K	19,654	20,980	-1,326	No	+$712	05-04 17:22
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?	23	$7.1K	3,668	7,318	-3,650	No	+$2,011	05-21 17:39
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	99	$6.8K	18,244	18,244	+0	No	-$1,229	07-12 01:17
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	31	$6.5K	3,602	3,160	+442	No	+$61	05-26 00:26
Will STRC market cap hit $12B by June 30?	27	$5.7K	4,987	4,987	+0	No	+$638	06-15 15:03
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	63	$5.7K	18,687	19,732	-1,044	Yes	+$1,324	05-09 07:01
James Comey arrested by April 29?	39	$5.4K	3,192	3,461	-269	Yes	+$552	04-29 17:02
will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 2 8	217	$5.2K	17,327	16,455	+872	Yes	+$324	06-08 04:44
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	80	$5.0K	18,039	18,039	+0	open	—	06-27 15:22
will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	116	$5.0K	12,808	12,808	+0	Yes	+$6	07-09 11:11
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	213	$5.0K	22,593	22,803	-209	No	-$733	04-25 22:41
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	144	$4.9K	18,246	19,890	-1,644	Yes	-$1	06-01 12:00
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	209	$4.8K	18,304	18,304	+0	No	+$80	06-22 20:39
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	193	$4.7K	36,140	42,997	-6,857	No	-$2,342	04-25 21:48
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?	7	$4.6K	3,199	3,199	+0	Yes	+$832	05-29 16:14
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	53	$4.1K	13,555	20,073	-6,518	No	-$1,959	06-01 02:32
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	60	$4.0K	11,579	11,354	+225	Yes	+$121	06-17 04:13
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	20	$4.0K	5,550	5,550	+0	open	—	07-12 15:33
will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	59	$3.8K	10,304	10,304	+1	No	+$422	07-08 09:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-04 18:25:34	Will the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x1fae3b…
09-28 03:11:44	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x2018c1…
08-29 17:29:34	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xd3f9a7…
07-29 18:00:18	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x242bd4…
07-24 00:36:46	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 23	No	BUY	200	2¢	$3	0xa111d2…
07-19 13:52:03	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	SELL	14	15¢	$2	0x5dfe28…
07-19 13:31:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	707	5¢	$38	0x5fa32f…
07-19 13:07:34	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	SELL	27	17¢	$5	0x9321d1…
07-19 12:49:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	707	6¢	$39	0x801741…
07-19 07:43:36	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	SELL	24	7¢	$2	0x267cb7…
07-19 06:12:42	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	SELL	541	7¢	$39	0x104609…
07-19 03:01:30	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	BUY	40	13¢	$5	0xe03dd3…
07-19 03:00:21	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0xf186de…
07-19 02:52:39	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	BUY	153	7¢	$11	0x29d5a5…
07-19 02:52:09	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	BUY	131	7¢	$9	0x5efbc8…
07-19 02:52:06	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	BUY	280	7¢	$20	0x37bc8d…
07-19 01:15:13	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	SELL	565	7¢	$40	0xd12542…
07-13 13:40:05	spy closes above 745 on july 13 2026	No	BUY	148	6¢	$9	0x4c081d…
07-13 13:17:16	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	SELL	159	6¢	$9	0xc6edb6…
07-13 12:07:23	spy closes above 745 on july 13 2026	No	BUY	34	6¢	$2	0x163787…
07-13 12:05:26	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase july 7 13	Yes	SELL	420	0¢	$0	0xa2184e…
07-12 22:01:26	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	SELL	2,417	6¢	$135	0xfabe38…
07-12 21:33:44	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	BUY	159	4¢	$7	0x196acd…
07-12 21:17:20	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	SELL	196	6¢	$11	0x46d27f…
07-12 15:33:26	Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,450	15¢	$222	0x7122be…
07-12 15:30:44	Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	30	17¢	$5	0x29a737…
07-12 06:16:49	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase july 7 13	Yes	BUY	292	9¢	$26	0x373244…
07-12 06:15:43	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase july 7 13	Yes	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0xae7c87…
07-12 01:28:50	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	BUY	249	4¢	$11	0xa74c1d…
07-12 01:20:04	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	BUY	47	5¢	$2	0x8c4efd…
07-12 01:17:50	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	SELL	63	24¢	$15	0x244610…
07-12 01:11:34	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	8	23¢	$2	0x1ad949…
07-12 01:10:13	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	55	23¢	$13	0xdc1a3b…
07-12 00:50:49	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	SELL	47	5¢	$2	0x3ac901…
07-12 00:20:01	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	Yes	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0xbc6567…
07-12 00:15:46	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	SELL	136	5¢	$7	0x22f753…
07-12 00:10:08	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x0651ef…
07-12 00:01:41	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	SELL	191	5¢	$9	0x3d4807…
07-12 00:00:07	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	SELL	410	5¢	$19	0xd5965d…
07-11 18:17:53	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase july 7 13	Yes	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0xde997e…
07-11 15:06:59	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	BUY	438	3¢	$12	0x1cd0cc…
07-11 14:57:14	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	SELL	500	3¢	$15	0x4bbef8…
07-11 14:41:10	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	BUY	200	3¢	$6	0xdafd20…
07-11 14:40:07	Will Trump pardon Martin Shkreli before 2027?	Yes	SELL	39	13¢	$5	0x004871…
07-11 14:39:41	Will Trump pardon Martin Shkreli before 2027?	Yes	SELL	48	13¢	$6	0x7760b3…
07-11 14:33:43	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	SELL	231	3¢	$7	0xaf4211…
07-11 14:17:17	NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	Yes	SELL	34	16¢	$6	0xf2572c…
07-11 14:14:47	Will Trump pardon Martin Shkreli before 2027?	Yes	SELL	60	14¢	$8	0x4658cd…
07-10 17:37:28	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Yes	SELL	4,000	6¢	$250	0x45e165…
07-10 15:49:34	Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	745	12¢	$91	0xaf4329…
07-10 15:45:07	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	SELL	6,350	1¢	$86	0x28ede2…
07-10 02:01:43	Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	575	15¢	$85	0x6a569b…
07-10 00:45:26	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	SELL	25	5¢	$1	0xcc5ea4…
07-10 00:45:01	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	BUY	425	2¢	$7	0x2b6f19…
07-09 23:45:23	Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	82	17¢	$14	0xfffdb9…
07-09 23:45:22	Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	136	17¢	$23	0x834092…
07-09 23:45:22	Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	136	17¢	$23	0x81b0a6…
07-09 23:45:22	Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	346	18¢	$61	0x5645ef…
07-09 23:13:11	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	SELL	1,279	2¢	$26	0xfc15d3…
07-09 17:18:40	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0x69de92…
07-09 16:20:31	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	SELL	195	6¢	$11	0xe08e34…
07-09 16:14:52	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	SELL	89	6¢	$5	0xe04fe3…
07-09 16:11:52	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	SELL	862	6¢	$48	0x09314e…
07-09 16:04:50	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	SELL	1,512	5¢	$74	0x60d5f0…
07-09 15:32:44	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	BUY	292	5¢	$15	0x4ebf1f…
07-09 15:29:56	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	BUY	908	5¢	$45	0x84746c…
07-09 14:56:07	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	SELL	15	6¢	$1	0xeaabbc…
07-09 14:11:14	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	SELL	2,800	2¢	$64	0x59af45…
07-09 12:50:32	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Yes	SELL	4,136	6¢	$248	0x414cb6…
07-09 11:11:16	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	SELL	580	24¢	$139	0x203b9e…
07-09 02:25:41	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	SELL	239	20¢	$48	0xf7cf56…
07-09 01:51:49	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	BUY	239	19¢	$45	0x216b74…
07-09 00:39:49	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	SELL	222	20¢	$44	0xccd5e0…
07-09 00:19:19	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	BUY	222	19¢	$42	0x8d9ad9…
07-08 22:49:44	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	BUY	59	22¢	$13	0x8c6bc8…
07-08 22:49:38	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	BUY	1	22¢	$0	0xf20dc0…
07-08 22:48:01	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0x17094c…
07-08 22:40:29	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	BUY	7	22¢	$2	0x1f6d49…
07-08 22:38:07	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	BUY	133	22¢	$29	0xa1fd57…
07-08 20:38:31	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	SELL	300	23¢	$69	0x99de48…
07-08 20:34:35	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	BUY	300	22¢	$66	0xa2eae8…
07-08 20:20:28	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	SELL	300	23¢	$69	0xb8ca26…
07-08 19:25:10	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	BUY	300	23¢	$69	0x1a49fb…
07-08 18:29:32	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	SELL	257	24¢	$62	0x72c102…
07-08 18:21:41	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	SELL	43	23¢	$10	0x3e3b90…
07-08 17:59:50	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	BUY	91	22¢	$20	0xf3ae6c…
07-08 17:58:41	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	BUY	209	22¢	$46	0xa53108…
07-08 17:29:04	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	SELL	300	23¢	$69	0x3fa00b…
07-08 17:18:34	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	BUY	64	23¢	$15	0x26848a…
07-08 17:09:02	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	BUY	236	23¢	$54	0xa09826…
07-08 17:04:20	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	Yes	SELL	84	9¢	$8	0xe87530…
07-08 16:50:16	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	BUY	265	26¢	$69	0xfd9c07…
07-08 16:49:08	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	BUY	15	26¢	$4	0xa946ea…
07-08 16:41:55	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	Yes	BUY	84	8¢	$7	0x3f3951…
07-08 16:24:17	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	Yes	SELL	458	9¢	$41	0xf9118d…
07-08 16:19:34	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0xf2a485…
07-08 16:17:47	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x5b99e4…
07-08 16:17:44	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	Yes	BUY	222	8¢	$18	0x4d930d…
07-08 16:17:44	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x364a63…
07-08 16:17:40	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	Yes	BUY	222	8¢	$18	0xb00933…