Ornery-Fail — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$966

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

91.0%

Resolved

159

Trades

1,269

lifetime

Volume

$129.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$102

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-08

last 08-05 03:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 47 days

Categories

Other

97% 87% -$1,083

Politics

3% 100% +$116

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-08-05).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	47	$5.3K	5,582	0	+5,582	Yes	+$237	04-29 15:59
US bank failure by April 30?	17	$4.1K	4,214	0	+4,214	No	+$70	04-30 22:20
will annual inflation increase by 2pt8 in march	39	$3.9K	3,926	0	+3,926	Yes	+$63	04-09 17:45
will the reserve bank of india make no change to the policy repo rate after the april meeting	26	$3.5K	3,649	0	+3,649	Yes	+$110	04-07 19:43
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 1 - 7?	4	$3.5K	3,522	0	+3,522	No	+$43	06-07 22:05
will the bank of brazil decrease the selic rate after march 2026 meeting	32	$2.9K	3,322	0	+3,322	Yes	+$412	03-14 01:51
will monthly inflation increase by 0pt8 or more in march 692	26	$2.8K	2,918	0	+2,918	Yes	+$126	04-09 16:55
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	11	$2.8K	2,804	0	+2,804	Yes	+$32	04-27 03:11
will the march 2026 unemployment rate be 4pt7	40	$2.7K	2,757	0	+2,757	No	+$60	04-02 17:49
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% or less in April?	7	$2.3K	2,382	0	+2,382	No	+$41	05-08 02:28
Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be negative?	6	$2.2K	2,216	0	+2,216	No	+$28	05-10 17:37
Will United States win on 2026-07-01?	4	$2.1K	2,129	0	+2,129	Yes	+$29	07-02 01:58
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce no change at the April meeting?	5	$2.0K	2,101	0	+2,101	Yes	-$2,050	04-30 14:30
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?	4	$2.0K	2,032	0	+2,032	No	+$14	06-28 01:51
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	6	$2.0K	2,010	0	+2,010	Yes	+$45	06-15 17:29
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?	25	$1.9K	2,021	0	+2,021	No	+$124	05-02 21:53
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?	6	$1.9K	1,887	0	+1,887	Yes	+$14	06-11 01:50
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	24	$1.9K	1,946	0	+1,946	Yes	+$75	06-20 03:15
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?	91	$1.9K	6,137	2,117	+4,020	No	-$1,201	06-16 06:39
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?	87	$1.8K	3,662	1,866	+1,796	No	-$249	04-28 22:42
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	13	$1.8K	910	910	+0	No	+$23	06-16 22:33
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?	5	$1.7K	1,750	0	+1,750	No	+$10	05-31 23:06
US bank failure by May 31?	7	$1.7K	1,735	0	+1,735	No	+$33	05-29 19:37
us bank failure by june 30 227	5	$1.6K	1,663	0	+1,663	No	+$22	06-30 22:26
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?	12	$1.6K	1,734	0	+1,734	Yes	+$99	05-01 10:55
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May?	7	$1.5K	1,600	0	+1,600	No	+$82	06-10 00:22
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the May Meeting?	4	$1.5K	1,500	0	+1,500	Yes	+$20	05-22 19:32
Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.6%?	6	$1.4K	1,461	0	+1,461	No	+$22	05-05 20:23
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?	16	$1.4K	1,571	30	+1,541	No	+$116	04-30 03:50
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the May decision?	14	$1.4K	1,467	0	+1,467	Yes	+$45	05-26 20:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-05 03:31:24	Will Goldman Sachs fail by end of 2026?	No	SELL	40	98¢	$39	0x68287b…
07-02 22:19:47	Will Goldman Sachs fail by end of 2026?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x1eb37b…
07-02 03:43:11	Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?	No	BUY	206	97¢	$200	0xc6a77a…
07-02 02:34:22	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the July interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	804	99¢	$800	0x4ce7a4…
07-02 02:29:04	Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	173	98¢	$170	0x7aba8f…
07-02 01:58:43	Will United States win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	504	99¢	$500	0x2a2352…
07-02 01:57:53	Will United States win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	506	99¢	$500	0x656faa…
07-02 01:57:31	Will United States win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	404	99¢	$400	0xbc0b67…
07-02 01:50:32	Will United States win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	716	98¢	$700	0x33a11a…
07-02 01:08:32	Will Lloyds fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	200	99¢	$197	0x7aa3a4…
07-02 00:37:34	Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0x2d78d3…
07-02 00:37:26	Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0xbf83e4…
07-02 00:37:19	Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0x2b6443…
07-02 00:36:38	Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0xde78ed…
07-02 00:36:31	Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0xe136a0…
07-02 00:36:20	Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0x64e512…
07-02 00:36:07	Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0x74a528…
07-02 00:35:55	Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0x5ef77b…
07-02 00:35:49	Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0x19beaa…
07-02 00:35:08	Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0xd9c8ce…
07-02 00:34:58	Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0xfb5219…
07-02 00:34:50	Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0x52f2c9…
07-02 00:34:40	Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0x89fe01…
07-01 20:14:41	Will UBS fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x352dfd…
07-01 20:14:34	Will UBS fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xa08966…
07-01 20:13:52	Will Goldman Sachs fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x962d18…
07-01 20:13:32	Will HSBC fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	110	99¢	$109	0x82caeb…
07-01 20:13:02	Will Lloyds fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$39	0xdd49c3…
07-01 20:12:55	Will Lloyds fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$39	0x84aee9…
07-01 20:12:43	Will Lloyds fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$39	0xabf89e…
07-01 20:12:35	Will Lloyds fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$39	0x58ace0…
07-01 20:12:29	Will Lloyds fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$39	0x5ada96…
07-01 20:12:19	Will Lloyds fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$39	0x6114f4…
07-01 20:12:13	Will Lloyds fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$39	0x3ea1d1…
07-01 20:12:04	Will Lloyds fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$39	0x40c9bc…
07-01 20:11:56	Will Lloyds fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$39	0xd1b743…
07-01 20:11:46	Will Lloyds fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$39	0xd6253c…
07-01 20:11:38	Will Lloyds fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$39	0x63eef6…
07-01 20:09:35	Will Citigroup fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	600	98¢	$589	0xd60cc0…
07-01 20:08:50	Will Lloyds fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$39	0x0d87a4…
07-01 20:08:40	Will Lloyds fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	600	99¢	$592	0x6ab6aa…
07-01 20:08:05	Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	140	99¢	$138	0xf8751f…
07-01 20:07:29	Will Santander fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	400	98¢	$393	0xe04db5…
07-01 20:05:46	Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	270	98¢	$265	0x8d5b45…
07-01 20:05:35	Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x1f32b6…
07-01 20:05:23	Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	70	98¢	$68	0xeb47b5…
07-01 20:05:17	Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	210	98¢	$205	0xee1089…
07-01 20:04:46	Will UBS fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	70	98¢	$69	0x29df50…
07-01 20:04:40	Will UBS fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	500	98¢	$488	0x0c9c35…
07-01 20:04:25	Will UBS fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	50	97¢	$49	0xf7d477…
07-01 20:03:55	Will UBS fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	50	97¢	$49	0xf15963…
07-01 20:01:19	Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the July interest rate announcement?	No	BUY	94	99¢	$93	0x1b68aa…
07-01 03:46:11	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0xabc1e1…
07-01 03:44:34	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x30c0c4…
07-01 03:43:37	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	BUY	306	98¢	$300	0x8229ee…
07-01 03:42:28	Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?	No	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0x5e3cf2…
06-30 22:26:02	us bank failure by june 30 227	No	BUY	703	100¢	$700	0x2fa1e7…
06-30 22:08:07	Will France win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	BUY	225	89¢	$200	0xe7e465…
06-30 16:02:59	Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?	No	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0x7bad45…
06-30 16:02:02	Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.7%?	No	BUY	160	99¢	$159	0xbb2fdf…
06-30 16:01:32	Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0xf474b2…
06-30 03:07:31	Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be 4.0%?	No	BUY	500	99¢	$495	0xfcb58b…
06-30 02:45:01	Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	BUY	600	76¢	$456	0x315ff4…
06-30 02:44:31	Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	600	22¢	$132	0x6704b3…
06-29 22:35:23	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 48.0 and 48.9 in June?	No	BUY	90	99¢	$89	0xbb859a…
06-29 19:00:25	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	BUY	305	98¢	$300	0x4b1cc0…
06-29 18:59:43	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	BUY	309	97¢	$300	0xeb553c…
06-29 03:06:43	us bank failure by june 30 227	No	BUY	190	98¢	$186	0x3b9bfe…
06-29 03:06:20	us bank failure by june 30 227	No	BUY	500	98¢	$490	0xafe962…
06-29 03:01:47	Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?	Yes	BUY	55	91¢	$50	0xdf17da…
06-29 03:01:17	Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?	Yes	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x749ab9…
06-29 03:01:17	Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?	Yes	BUY	57	88¢	$50	0x56a080…
06-29 02:56:13	Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xe2c715…
06-29 02:55:41	Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?	No	BUY	4	90¢	$4	0xef72b2…
06-29 02:55:40	Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?	No	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x09aafe…
06-29 02:55:10	Will there be more than 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xb2493e…
06-29 02:54:40	Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x53e5eb…
06-29 02:54:29	Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x41d2d8…
06-29 02:53:16	Will there be more than 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xee32b4…
06-29 02:52:35	Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x785104…
06-29 02:52:25	Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x555f4a…
06-28 19:26:58	us bank failure by june 30 227	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xaf4a2e…
06-28 19:23:26	us bank failure by june 30 227	No	BUY	250	98¢	$245	0xb08949…
06-28 03:11:56	Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be 4.0%?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xd89de1…
06-28 02:31:49	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x2546f7…
06-28 02:31:41	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	201	99¢	$200	0x1d60d9…
06-28 02:25:23	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	209	96¢	$200	0x6a12be…
06-28 02:19:49	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	316	95¢	$300	0x6119b8…
06-28 01:51:28	Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?	No	BUY	500	99¢	$497	0x97ad0d…
06-28 01:48:50	Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?	No	BUY	500	99¢	$497	0x26c965…
06-28 01:48:37	Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?	No	BUY	1,000	99¢	$994	0xdc1798…
06-28 01:36:11	Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be 4.6%?	No	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0xcf93b5…
06-27 22:35:56	Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?	No	BUY	60	99¢	$59	0xc4012b…
06-27 20:32:40	Will Panama vs. England end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	500	11¢	$55	0x5747c0…
06-27 20:32:22	Will England win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	500	86¢	$430	0x52bddc…
06-26 23:19:50	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be below 48.0 in June?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0xda308c…
06-26 23:19:37	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be below 48.0 in June?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x110fce…
06-26 17:39:47	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be below 48.0 in June?	No	BUY	70	99¢	$69	0x5a1e92…
06-26 17:38:08	Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?	No	BUY	120	99¢	$119	0x8f3784…
06-26 17:37:22	Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0x5003a8…