Will HSBC fail by end of 2026?
open
Total volume
$1,723
Trades
157
Unique wallets
47
Liquidity
$270
End date
2027-05-01
First seen
2026-05-12
last 11-01 19:35
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Not enough snapshot data yet — the snapshot daemon polls every 5 min.
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+13.1¢
(top1%: 16% YES on $41
vs crowd: 3% YES on $1.1K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 7 | $6 | $313 | $307 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 12 | $8 | $255 | $247 |
| 🐟 Fish | 9 | $10 | $123 | $113 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 19 | $7 | $416 | $408 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 7 | $7 | $35 | $28 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 4 | $2 | $148 | $147 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 2 | — | $134 | $134 |
| Median | 10 | — | $37 | $37 |
| Below median | 7 | $11 | $219 | $208 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 5 | $3 | $113 | $110 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 1 | — | $4 | $4 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 11 | $9 | $416 | $407 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0x6309…f5f4 | No | +150 | $148 | $148 | 1 | 05-12 12:46 |
| Fixed-Eaglet 0xe53c…e569 | Yes | +130 | $2 | $2 | 2 | 05-26 15:35 |
| Ornery-Fail 0x128b…7c4f | No | +110 | $109 | $109 | 1 | 07-01 20:13 |
| (anonymous) 0xff5b…2958 | No | +106 | $105 | $105 | 1 | 05-13 06:05 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +75 | $2 | $2 | 4 | 11-01 19:35 |
| Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | No | +65 | $60 | $346 | 6 | 10-14 08:17 |
| (anonymous) 0xe215…1c22 | Yes | +60 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 07-11 12:40 |
| (anonymous) 0x5c1d…50f8 | Yes | +59 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 10-05 17:19 |
| (anonymous) 0x22e0…3adb | Yes | +59 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-21 05:22 |
| (anonymous) 0xaddf…2a28 | Yes | +56 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-30 23:32 |
| (anonymous) 0xe574…68a7 | No | +50 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 05-13 06:23 |
| Obedient-Population 0x6c37…d40f | Yes | +50 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-04 01:33 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +34 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 05-13 06:23 |
| (anonymous) 0x4b22…432d | No | +30 | $29 | $29 | 3 | 11-01 19:35 |
| (anonymous) 0x3e94…79a1 | No | +20 | $19 | $19 | 1 | 10-13 18:28 |
| Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | +2 | $0 | $2 | 9 | 07-03 20:18 |
| Black-And-White-Consensus 0x6415…f1ab | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-01 16:59 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 19:35:37 | (anonymous) 0x4b22…432d | No | BUY | 10 | 97¢ | $10 | 0x8ad291… |
| 11-01 19:35:37 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x8ad291… |
| 10-29 14:48:16 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x127f4d… |
| 10-29 14:48:16 | (anonymous) 0x4b22…432d | No | BUY | 10 | 97¢ | $10 | 0x127f4d… |
| 10-28 14:48:14 | (anonymous) 0x4b22…432d | No | BUY | 10 | 97¢ | $10 | 0x1c9c5f… |
| 10-28 14:48:14 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x1c9c5f… |
| 10-14 08:17:20 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 45 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x37d9c0… |
| 10-14 08:17:20 | Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | No | BUY | 45 | 97¢ | $44 | 0x37d9c0… |
| 10-14 07:52:32 | Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | No | BUY | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0x100a20… |
| 10-14 07:52:32 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | SELL | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0x100a20… |
| 10-14 07:37:58 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | SELL | 10 | 97¢ | $10 | 0x6da66d… |
| 10-14 07:37:58 | Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | No | BUY | 15 | 97¢ | $15 | 0x6da66d… |
| 10-13 18:28:01 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | BUY | 15 | 97¢ | $14 | 0xc40117… |
| 10-13 18:28:01 | (anonymous) 0x3e94…79a1 | No | BUY | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0xc40117… |
| 10-13 18:28:01 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | SELL | 6 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xc40117… |
| 10-13 18:28:01 | (anonymous) 0x1284…3694 | Yes | SELL | 55 | 3¢ | $2 | 0xc40117… |
| 10-13 18:28:01 | (anonymous) 0x5c1d…50f8 | No | SELL | 101 | 97¢ | $98 | 0xc40117… |
| 10-05 17:19:32 | (anonymous) 0x5c1d…50f8 | Yes | BUY | 59 | 3¢ | $2 | 0xe59ee9… |
| 10-05 17:19:32 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | SELL | 59 | 3¢ | $2 | 0xe59ee9… |
| 10-05 17:18:52 | (anonymous) 0x1284…3694 | Yes | BUY | 55 | 1¢ | $1 | 0xb798d7… |
| 10-05 17:18:52 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 40 | 1¢ | $1 | 0xb798d7… |
| 10-05 17:18:52 | (anonymous) 0x5c1d…50f8 | No | BUY | 101 | 99¢ | $100 | 0xb798d7… |
| 10-05 17:18:52 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 6 | 99¢ | $6 | 0xb798d7… |
| 08-28 05:11:01 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0x0b9e8b… |
| 08-28 05:11:01 | Mammoth-Downtown 0x09d1…3fb5 | No | SELL | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0x0b9e8b… |
| 08-17 19:45:51 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 25 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x419ac7… |
| 08-17 19:45:51 | Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x419ac7… |
| 07-28 13:27:58 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | SELL | 80 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x086963… |
| 07-28 13:27:58 | Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x086963… |
| 07-28 13:27:58 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | SELL | 30 | 99¢ | $30 | 0x086963… |
| 07-28 13:27:58 | (anonymous) 0x1dd9…21cc | No | SELL | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x086963… |
| 07-23 17:01:25 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | BUY | 16 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x52d6d7… |
| 07-23 17:01:25 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 20 | 98¢ | $20 | 0x52d6d7… |
| 07-23 17:01:25 | (anonymous) 0xc71b…e265 | Yes | SELL | 36 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x52d6d7… |
| 07-22 10:01:42 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | SELL | 4 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x7c1823… |
| 07-22 10:01:42 | Ugly-Platinum 0x5c91…5ccc | No | SELL | 4 | 97¢ | $4 | 0x7c1823… |
| 07-22 10:01:25 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | BUY | 31 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x83bff3… |
| 07-22 10:01:25 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | SELL | 7 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x83bff3… |
| 07-22 10:01:25 | Ugly-Platinum 0x5c91…5ccc | No | BUY | 4 | 97¢ | $4 | 0x83bff3… |
| 07-22 10:01:25 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 20 | 97¢ | $19 | 0x83bff3… |
| 07-21 14:07:49 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | SELL | 19 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x0f5de4… |
| 07-21 14:07:49 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | No | SELL | 19 | 98¢ | $19 | 0x0f5de4… |
| 07-21 13:13:45 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | BUY | 57 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xff1894… |
| 07-21 13:13:45 | Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xff1894… |
| 07-21 13:13:45 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 17 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xff1894… |
| 07-21 13:13:45 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | No | BUY | 19 | 98¢ | $19 | 0xff1894… |
| 07-21 05:22:10 | (anonymous) 0x22e0…3adb | Yes | BUY | 59 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x970d93… |
| 07-21 05:22:10 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x970d93… |
| 07-21 05:22:10 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | SELL | 51 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x970d93… |
| 07-15 16:37:32 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xfbce06… |
| 07-15 16:37:32 | Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | Yes | SELL | 45 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xfbce06… |
| 07-15 16:37:32 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | No | SELL | 20 | 98¢ | $20 | 0xfbce06… |
| 07-13 15:34:55 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | BUY | 44 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xecb279… |
| 07-13 15:34:55 | (anonymous) 0xc71b…e265 | Yes | SELL | 44 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xecb279… |
| 07-11 12:40:17 | (anonymous) 0xe215…1c22 | Yes | BUY | 60 | 2¢ | $2 | 0x344ea1… |
| 07-11 12:40:17 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | SELL | 60 | 2¢ | $2 | 0x344ea1… |
| 07-09 19:22:11 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xa38761… |
| 07-09 19:22:11 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | BUY | 40 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xa38761… |
| 07-09 19:22:11 | (anonymous) 0xc71b…e265 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xa38761… |
| 07-09 18:36:44 | Reckless-Compassionate 0x3ea7…7fc0 | No | SELL | 5 | 98¢ | $4 | 0x60a9f8… |
| 07-09 18:36:44 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x60a9f8… |
| 07-09 12:42:58 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | SELL | 41 | 98¢ | $40 | 0x5ba334… |
| 07-09 12:42:58 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | SELL | 41 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x5ba334… |
| 07-09 09:36:08 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | SELL | 41 | 98¢ | $40 | 0xc8b824… |
| 07-09 09:36:08 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | BUY | 41 | 98¢ | $40 | 0xc8b824… |
| 07-09 09:36:05 | Reckless-Compassionate 0x3ea7…7fc0 | No | BUY | 5 | 98¢ | $4 | 0xd3e336… |
| 07-09 09:36:05 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | SELL | 5 | 98¢ | $4 | 0xd3e336… |
| 07-09 09:36:01 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | BUY | 45 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x6157c0… |
| 07-09 09:36:01 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | BUY | 45 | 98¢ | $44 | 0x6157c0… |
| 07-08 22:00:40 | Flamboyant-Porch 0xda20…cb8d | No | SELL | 24 | 98¢ | $23 | 0x1c9f65… |
| 07-08 22:00:40 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | SELL | 24 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x1c9f65… |
| 07-08 20:48:32 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | BUY | 51 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xa90eae… |
| 07-08 20:48:32 | Flamboyant-Porch 0xda20…cb8d | No | BUY | 24 | 98¢ | $23 | 0xa90eae… |
| 07-08 20:48:32 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | No | BUY | 20 | 98¢ | $20 | 0xa90eae… |
| 07-08 20:48:32 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | SELL | 7 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xa90eae… |
| 07-07 01:58:02 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | BUY | 30 | 98¢ | $29 | 0x1ef81a… |
| 07-07 01:58:02 | (anonymous) 0xc8a2…c9b6 | No | SELL | 48 | 98¢ | $47 | 0x1ef81a… |
| 07-07 01:58:02 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | SELL | 13 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x1ef81a… |
| 07-07 01:58:02 | (anonymous) 0x1dd9…21cc | No | BUY | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x1ef81a… |
| 07-07 01:57:55 | (anonymous) 0xc8a2…c9b6 | No | BUY | 48 | 98¢ | $47 | 0xe6f56a… |
| 07-07 01:57:55 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | BUY | 15 | 98¢ | $15 | 0xe6f56a… |
| 07-07 01:57:55 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xe6f56a… |
| 07-07 01:57:55 | Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | No | SELL | 146 | 98¢ | $143 | 0xe6f56a… |
| 07-07 01:57:55 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | SELL | 53 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xe6f56a… |
| 07-03 20:18:32 | Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | SELL | 53 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x5c4975… |
| 07-03 20:18:32 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | BUY | 53 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x5c4975… |
| 07-03 01:47:43 | Creepy-Phase 0x3403…cf73 | No | SELL | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0xd510ae… |
| 07-03 01:47:43 | Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x3eb75b… |
| 07-03 01:47:43 | Boring-Standoff 0x6802…2199 | No | SELL | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0x3eb75b… |
| 07-03 01:47:43 | Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xd510ae… |
| 07-03 01:47:41 | Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xc11af7… |
| 07-03 01:47:41 | Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xfb9ec4… |
| 07-03 01:47:41 | Unfinished-Carload 0x7811…0068 | No | SELL | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0xfb9ec4… |
| 07-03 01:47:41 | Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x8b67fd… |
| 07-03 01:47:41 | Young-Xylophone 0x4c2b…39ed | No | SELL | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0x8b67fd… |
| 07-03 01:47:41 | Well-Documented-Sill 0xfc9b…0626 | No | SELL | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0xc11af7… |
| 07-03 01:47:40 | Oddball-Household 0xaaaa…a02f | No | SELL | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0x19196f… |
| 07-03 01:47:40 | Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x19196f… |
| 07-03 01:47:40 | Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xc5c14f… |
| 07-03 01:47:40 | Immense-Sovereignty 0xbdd5…a9ba | No | SELL | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0xc5c14f… |