Will HSBC fail by end of 2026?
open
Total volume
$911
$156 in 24h
Trades
93
Unique wallets
32
Liquidity
$5,621
Latest YES mid
2¢
Latest NO mid
98¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-06-01
last 07-21 05:22
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 1 | — | $40 | $40 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 10 | $6 | $261 | $255 |
| 🐟 Fish | 5 | $1 | $156 | $154 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 16 | $10 | $62 | $52 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 4 | $1 | $25 | $24 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 1 | — | $10 | $10 |
| Median | 10 | $0 | $201 | $201 |
| Below median | 8 | $3 | $135 | $132 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 2 | $2 | — | +$2 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 2 | $3 | — | +$3 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 1 | — | $40 | $40 |
| unranked | 4 | $8 | $109 | $101 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ornery-Fail 0x128b…7c4f | No | +110 | $109 | $109 | 1 | 07-01 20:13 |
| (anonymous) 0xe215…1c22 | Yes | +60 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 07-11 12:40 |
| (anonymous) 0x22e0…3adb | Yes | +59 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-21 05:22 |
| (anonymous) 0xaddf…2a28 | Yes | +56 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-30 23:32 |
| Obedient-Population 0x6c37…d40f | Yes | +50 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-04 01:33 |
| New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | +50 | $49 | $49 | 3 | 07-07 01:58 |
| (anonymous) 0xc71b…e265 | Yes | +36 | $1 | $4 | 6 | 07-13 15:34 |
| (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | +17 | $0 | $3 | 6 | 07-21 05:22 |
| Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | +7 | $0 | $0 | 7 | 07-03 01:32 |
| (anonymous) 0x1dd9…21cc | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-07 01:58 |
| Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | +2 | $-0 | $2 | 9 | 07-03 20:18 |
| Black-And-White-Consensus 0x6415…f1ab | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-01 16:59 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-21 05:22:10 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | SELL | 51 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x970d93… |
| 07-21 05:22:10 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x970d93… |
| 07-21 05:22:10 | (anonymous) 0x22e0…3adb | Yes | BUY | 59 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x970d93… |
| 07-15 16:37:32 | Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | Yes | SELL | 45 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xfbce06… |
| 07-15 16:37:32 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xfbce06… |
| 07-15 16:37:32 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | No | SELL | 20 | 98¢ | $20 | 0xfbce06… |
| 07-13 15:34:55 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | BUY | 44 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xecb279… |
| 07-13 15:34:55 | (anonymous) 0xc71b…e265 | Yes | SELL | 44 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xecb279… |
| 07-11 12:40:17 | (anonymous) 0xe215…1c22 | Yes | BUY | 60 | 2¢ | $2 | 0x344ea1… |
| 07-11 12:40:17 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | SELL | 60 | 2¢ | $2 | 0x344ea1… |
| 07-09 19:22:11 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | BUY | 40 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xa38761… |
| 07-09 19:22:11 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xa38761… |
| 07-09 19:22:11 | (anonymous) 0xc71b…e265 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xa38761… |
| 07-09 18:36:44 | Reckless-Compassionate 0x3ea7…7fc0 | No | SELL | 5 | 98¢ | $4 | 0x60a9f8… |
| 07-09 18:36:44 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x60a9f8… |
| 07-09 12:42:58 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | SELL | 41 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x5ba334… |
| 07-09 12:42:58 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | SELL | 41 | 98¢ | $40 | 0x5ba334… |
| 07-09 09:36:08 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | BUY | 41 | 98¢ | $40 | 0xc8b824… |
| 07-09 09:36:08 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | SELL | 41 | 98¢ | $40 | 0xc8b824… |
| 07-09 09:36:05 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | SELL | 5 | 98¢ | $4 | 0xd3e336… |
| 07-09 09:36:05 | Reckless-Compassionate 0x3ea7…7fc0 | No | BUY | 5 | 98¢ | $4 | 0xd3e336… |
| 07-09 09:36:01 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | BUY | 45 | 98¢ | $44 | 0x6157c0… |
| 07-09 09:36:01 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | BUY | 45 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x6157c0… |
| 07-08 22:00:40 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | SELL | 24 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x1c9f65… |
| 07-08 22:00:40 | Flamboyant-Porch 0xda20…cb8d | No | SELL | 24 | 98¢ | $23 | 0x1c9f65… |
| 07-08 20:48:32 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | BUY | 51 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xa90eae… |
| 07-08 20:48:32 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | SELL | 7 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xa90eae… |
| 07-08 20:48:32 | Flamboyant-Porch 0xda20…cb8d | No | BUY | 24 | 98¢ | $23 | 0xa90eae… |
| 07-08 20:48:32 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | No | BUY | 20 | 98¢ | $20 | 0xa90eae… |
| 07-07 01:58:02 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | SELL | 13 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x1ef81a… |
| 07-07 01:58:02 | (anonymous) 0x1dd9…21cc | No | BUY | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x1ef81a… |
| 07-07 01:58:02 | (anonymous) 0xc8a2…c9b6 | No | SELL | 48 | 98¢ | $47 | 0x1ef81a… |
| 07-07 01:58:02 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | BUY | 30 | 98¢ | $29 | 0x1ef81a… |
| 07-07 01:57:55 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | SELL | 53 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xe6f56a… |
| 07-07 01:57:55 | (anonymous) 0xc8a2…c9b6 | No | BUY | 48 | 98¢ | $47 | 0xe6f56a… |
| 07-07 01:57:55 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | BUY | 15 | 98¢ | $15 | 0xe6f56a… |
| 07-07 01:57:55 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xe6f56a… |
| 07-07 01:57:55 | Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | No | SELL | 146 | 98¢ | $143 | 0xe6f56a… |
| 07-03 20:18:32 | Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | SELL | 53 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x5c4975… |
| 07-03 20:18:32 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | BUY | 53 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x5c4975… |
| 07-03 01:47:43 | Boring-Standoff 0x6802…2199 | No | SELL | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0x3eb75b… |
| 07-03 01:47:43 | Creepy-Phase 0x3403…cf73 | No | SELL | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0xd510ae… |
| 07-03 01:47:43 | Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x3eb75b… |
| 07-03 01:47:43 | Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xd510ae… |
| 07-03 01:47:41 | Well-Documented-Sill 0xfc9b…0626 | No | SELL | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0xc11af7… |
| 07-03 01:47:41 | Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xc11af7… |
| 07-03 01:47:41 | Young-Xylophone 0x4c2b…39ed | No | SELL | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0x8b67fd… |
| 07-03 01:47:41 | Unfinished-Carload 0x7811…0068 | No | SELL | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0xfb9ec4… |
| 07-03 01:47:41 | Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xfb9ec4… |
| 07-03 01:47:41 | Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x8b67fd… |
| 07-03 01:47:40 | Oddball-Household 0xaaaa…a02f | No | SELL | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0x19196f… |
| 07-03 01:47:40 | Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x19196f… |
| 07-03 01:47:40 | Immense-Sovereignty 0xbdd5…a9ba | No | SELL | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0xc5c14f… |
| 07-03 01:47:40 | Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xc5c14f… |
| 07-03 01:32:43 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xc1c9f6… |
| 07-03 01:32:43 | Creepy-Phase 0x3403…cf73 | No | BUY | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0x682fc4… |
| 07-03 01:32:43 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x682fc4… |
| 07-03 01:32:43 | Young-Xylophone 0x4c2b…39ed | No | BUY | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0xc1c9f6… |
| 07-03 01:32:41 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xa0afdd… |
| 07-03 01:32:41 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xb1ae83… |
| 07-03 01:32:41 | Immense-Sovereignty 0xbdd5…a9ba | No | BUY | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0xb1ae83… |
| 07-03 01:32:41 | Well-Documented-Sill 0xfc9b…0626 | No | BUY | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0xa0afdd… |
| 07-03 01:32:40 | Boring-Standoff 0x6802…2199 | No | BUY | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0xae4ba3… |
| 07-03 01:32:40 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 1 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x09a8e5… |
| 07-03 01:32:40 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xae4ba3… |
| 07-03 01:32:40 | Oddball-Household 0xaaaa…a02f | No | BUY | 1 | 99¢ | $1 | 0x09a8e5… |
| 07-03 01:32:38 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 1 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x93910a… |
| 07-03 01:32:38 | Unfinished-Carload 0x7811…0068 | No | BUY | 1 | 99¢ | $1 | 0x93910a… |
| 07-01 20:13:32 | Ornery-Fail 0x128b…7c4f | No | BUY | 110 | 99¢ | $109 | 0x82caeb… |
| 07-01 20:13:32 | (anonymous) 0xc71b…e265 | Yes | BUY | 49 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x82caeb… |
| 07-01 20:13:32 | Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | BUY | 61 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x82caeb… |
| 07-01 16:59:29 | Black-And-White-Consensus 0x6415…f1ab | No | BUY | 1 | 99¢ | $1 | 0x94628e… |
| 07-01 16:59:29 | (anonymous) 0xc71b…e265 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x94628e… |
| 06-30 23:57:53 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x4bb9f1… |
| 06-30 23:57:53 | Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | No | BUY | 46 | 96¢ | $44 | 0x4bb9f1… |
| 06-30 23:57:53 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | No | SELL | 21 | 96¢ | $20 | 0x4bb9f1… |
| 06-30 23:57:53 | (anonymous) 0xc71b…e265 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x4bb9f1… |
| 06-30 23:57:25 | Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | No | BUY | 100 | 96¢ | $96 | 0x43872f… |
| 06-30 23:57:25 | (anonymous) 0xc71b…e265 | Yes | BUY | 45 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x43872f… |
| 06-30 23:57:25 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x43872f… |
| 06-30 23:57:25 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x43872f… |
| 06-30 23:57:25 | Mortified-Wetland 0xf2cf…464b | No | SELL | 10 | 96¢ | $9 | 0x43872f… |
| 06-30 23:32:58 | Mortified-Wetland 0xf2cf…464b | No | BUY | 10 | 97¢ | $10 | 0x989afe… |
| 06-30 23:32:58 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x989afe… |
| 06-30 23:32:58 | (anonymous) 0xaddf…2a28 | Yes | BUY | 56 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x989afe… |
| 06-30 23:32:58 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | No | BUY | 21 | 96¢ | $20 | 0x989afe… |
| 06-04 12:42:55 | Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xd85621… |
| 06-04 12:42:55 | Untimely-Macrofauna 0x403d…b04d | Yes | SELL | 25 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xd85621… |
| 06-04 01:33:34 | Untimely-Macrofauna 0x403d…b04d | Yes | SELL | 75 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x138858… |
| 06-04 01:33:34 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x138858… |
| 06-04 01:33:34 | Obedient-Population 0x6c37…d40f | Yes | BUY | 50 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x138858… |
| 06-01 09:26:43 | Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | Yes | SELL | 11 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xe1d373… |
| 06-01 09:26:43 | Legal-Trader-Hardening 0x8adc…5486 | No | SELL | 11 | 98¢ | $10 | 0xe1d373… |