Reckless-Compassionate — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$467

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

60.4%

Resolved

431

Trades

2,157

lifetime

Volume

$225.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$105

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-26

last 07-14 21:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 96 days

Categories

Other

81% 40% -$359

Politics

12% 33% -$149

Sports

5% 26% +$88

Crypto

1% 0% -$1

Tech

1% 62% -$46

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-14).

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
dota2 nem playti 2026 06 17 game2	18	$13.3K	9,189	4,525	+4,664	PlayTime	+$131	06-17 22:39
Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026?	3	$7.1K	3,975	3,975	+0	open	—	05-15 19:34
Madrid Open: Solana Sierra vs Karolina Pliskova	17	$4.5K	3,442	3,442	+0	Karolina Pliskova	+$541	04-27 11:42
dota2 grind mental 2026 06 18 game2	55	$4.4K	5,228	2,032	+3,195	Grind Back	+$247	06-19 03:37
Hawks vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5	7	$4.1K	4,110	4,110	+0	Over	+$19	04-29 00:14
Will Millonarios FC win on 2026-04-28?	2	$4.1K	4,369	4,369	+0	No	-$44	04-28 13:15
Cabo Verde leading at halftime?	8	$4.0K	2,116	2,116	+0	No	-$7	06-15 15:17
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	20	$3.9K	4,700	4,700	+0	magic	+$0	05-13 03:10
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	2	$3.9K	4,466	4,466	+0	Yes	+$0	05-06 04:54
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	42	$3.8K	3,500	3,500	+0	No	+$0	05-07 20:58
Kash Patel out by June 30?	20	$3.6K	2,800	2,800	+0	No	-$99	05-12 02:28
lol vks red 2026 06 11	10	$3.6K	3,604	0	+3,604	RED Canids	+$41	06-11 19:33
UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims)	47	$3.2K	2,500	2,500	+0	Pat Sabatini	+$149	05-09 22:17
AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA Huracán: O/U 1.5	3	$3.1K	2,714	2,714	+0	Under	+$0	05-12 19:38
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	3	$3.0K	3,200	3,200	+0	Yes	+$0	05-07 21:34
Canada vs. Qatar: Neither team to score first?	2	$2.7K	1,400	1,400	+0	No	+$69	06-18 22:51
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti?	4	$2.7K	1,600	1,600	+0	Yes	+$0	06-19 19:50
fifwc ger kor 2026 06 14 team total home 0pt5	3	$2.7K	1,400	1,400	+0	Over	+$14	06-13 20:46
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5	6	$2.5K	2,437	2,437	+0	Over	+$0	05-13 00:10
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	44	$2.5K	1,400	1,256	+144	No	+$6	06-14 21:28
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half	16	$2.4K	1,400	1,400	+0	No	+$15	06-15 16:17
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-10?	2	$2.4K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	+$0	05-10 01:43
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner	13	$2.4K	1,636	1,636	+0	Karmine Corp Blue	+$2	06-12 19:15
United States vs. Belgium: Neither team to score first?	2	$2.3K	2,470	0	+2,470	No	+$137	07-06 23:43
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half	3	$2.3K	1,400	1,400	+0	No	+$14	06-13 23:22
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5	2	$2.0K	1,400	1,400	+0	Under	+$318	06-14 01:22
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	4	$2.0K	4,466	4,466	+0	Yes	$0	05-08 01:52
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	3	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	-$3	05-14 05:05
lol t1 fur 2026 07 06 game1 kill over 30pt5	17	$1.9K	2,020	2,020	+0	Under	+$10	07-06 06:19
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters Last Chance Qualifier	20	$1.8K	1,400	1,400	+0	Top Esports Challenger	+$36	06-15 10:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-14 21:09:52	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	0¢	$0	0x74d817…
07-14 21:09:47	Will François Ruffin be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	4	1¢	$0	0x397c16…
07-14 21:09:43	marine le pen out as member of the national assembly byptptpt 20260706153645649	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0xdb14e2…
07-14 21:09:37	Will Andrew Yang announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	0¢	$0	0x48f5dc…
07-14 21:09:32	Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1?	Yes	SELL	25	1¢	$0	0xb41076…
07-14 21:09:28	Will the Republican Party win the MD-01 House seat?	No	SELL	4	15¢	$1	0x7c88e1…
07-14 21:09:22	Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	50	1¢	$1	0x7080ba…
07-14 21:09:17	Will Angela Rayner be the next Culture Secretary of the UK in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	1¢	$0	0x9ab628…
07-14 21:09:11	will russia capture stavky by july 31	Yes	SELL	50	1¢	$1	0x4049bb…
07-14 21:09:04	Will the median home value in the US be between $440,000 and $447,000 on September 30?	Yes	SELL	33	1¢	$0	0xd93044…
07-14 21:08:58	Will Cardi B perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	Yes	SELL	50	1¢	$1	0x656069…
07-14 21:08:52	Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor?	No	SELL	60	0¢	$0	0x5ff7d5…
07-14 21:08:46	will revoluts valuation hit low 77pt5b by july 31 20260630204859530	Yes	SELL	50	0¢	$0	0x27ebb4…
07-14 21:08:41	Will Beto O’Rourke announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0xfea437…
07-14 21:08:37	Will the Republican Party win the CA-39 House seat?	Yes	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0x65a9b3…
07-14 21:08:31	Will Minerva Torres Shelton win the 2026 El Paso County Judge election?	Yes	SELL	27	3¢	$1	0x97b649…
07-14 21:08:23	will ed miliband be in the burnham cabinet 20260623004533209	No	SELL	28	5¢	$1	0x90acb7…
07-14 21:08:19	Will Trump meet with Nicolás Maduro in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	4¢	$2	0xc0350c…
07-14 21:08:13	Will the Republican Party win the ME-01 House seat?	Yes	SELL	100	2¢	$2	0xab05ad…
07-14 21:08:08	will bulk launch a token by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	45	9¢	$4	0xf7fcd8…
07-14 21:08:04	OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	10¢	$5	0x1acaeb…
07-14 21:07:59	le pen endorses non bardella pm by april 17 2027 20260708195808582	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$2	0xd4655c…
07-14 21:07:35	Will the Republican Party win the GA-06 House seat?	Yes	SELL	400	2¢	$10	0xabdd93…
07-14 21:07:29	Will John Healey be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?	No	SELL	50	29¢	$15	0x406253…
07-14 21:07:23	will neuralinks valuation hit high 60b by december 31	Yes	SELL	50	30¢	$15	0xf7b2ef…
07-14 21:07:19	Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by at least 15%?	No	SELL	50	31¢	$16	0xefe9da…
07-14 21:07:13	will mohammad bagher ghalibaf attend a us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260622201044261	Yes	SELL	50	42¢	$21	0x720cf7…
07-14 21:07:08	Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	No	SELL	50	53¢	$27	0x52fefc…
07-14 21:07:04	Will Tread launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	59¢	$29	0x4c0226…
07-14 21:06:58	Will the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) win the second most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?	No	SELL	50	78¢	$39	0x2be67b…
07-14 02:25:02	Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	No	SELL	67	64¢	$42	0x523314…
07-14 02:24:46	Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?	No	SELL	50	81¢	$40	0xb95009…
07-14 02:24:38	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% or less in June?	No	SELL	50	66¢	$33	0x78ff3a…
07-14 02:24:25	Will Karishma Manzur be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?	Yes	SELL	50	4¢	$2	0xcce114…
07-14 02:23:58	will bytedances valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 20260701011753590	Yes	SELL	50	5¢	$2	0x30c651…
07-14 02:23:46	Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$2	0x1a8fd4…
07-14 02:23:31	will meta dip to 460 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	42	1¢	$0	0x0fe105…
07-14 02:22:52	will russia enter havrylivka by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	50	0¢	$0	0x45454f…
07-14 02:22:40	will russia capture serhiivka by july 31	Yes	SELL	50	1¢	$1	0x38b6e5…
07-14 02:22:32	ukraine agrees not to join nato by august 31 20260619004335094	Yes	SELL	50	1¢	$1	0x3bb519…
07-14 02:22:01	will david lisnard advance to the second round of the next french presidential election	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$2	0xc16ad6…
07-14 02:21:52	United Airlines (UAL) Q2 total revenue per available seat mile 19.5¢+?	No	SELL	10	38¢	$4	0x1ccf1b…
07-14 02:21:46	Will the Democratic Party win the IL-16 House seat?	Yes	SELL	50	7¢	$4	0x146b78…
07-14 02:21:38	Will Perena launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	7¢	$4	0x62e4dd…
07-14 02:21:29	Will Joseph Chaplik be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?	Yes	SELL	50	11¢	$6	0x1f4526…
07-14 02:21:17	Will Trump pardon Ryan Salame before 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	11¢	$6	0x6fd4d8…
07-14 02:21:11	Will Đuro Macut win the next Serbia presidential election?	Yes	SELL	50	20¢	$10	0x869293…
07-14 02:21:02	Will the Republican Party win the MI-07 House seat?	No	SELL	50	68¢	$34	0x033fb3…
07-14 01:59:08	Will Roberto Vannacci be the next Prime Minister of Italy?	Yes	SELL	50	9¢	$5	0xd1d416…
07-14 01:58:59	Will Sal Stewart win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?	No	SELL	50	78¢	$39	0xbefddf…
07-14 01:58:47	Will the Democratic Party win the MI-07 House seat?	Yes	SELL	50	68¢	$34	0x228aff…
07-14 01:51:02	Will the US federal government take a stake in Eli Lilly and Company?	No	SELL	50	86¢	$43	0x5c9947…
07-14 01:50:56	will grard larcher be reelected as president of the french senate	Yes	SELL	50	86¢	$43	0xe144fc…
07-14 01:50:50	Will the Republican Party win the TX-31 House seat?	Yes	SELL	50	81¢	$40	0xf9df29…
07-14 01:50:37	will lambdas valuation hit low 6b by december 31	No	SELL	50	83¢	$42	0x560b51…
07-14 01:46:08	will andurils valuation hit high 200b by december 31	No	SELL	50	90¢	$45	0x95fc8c…
07-14 01:45:29	Will Bert Mizusawa be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?	No	SELL	50	18¢	$9	0xff5a93…
07-14 01:45:22	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	18¢	$9	0xa75978…
07-14 01:45:16	will epic games valuation hit low 10pt5 by july 31 20260629184732970	Yes	SELL	50	12¢	$6	0xff3b1e…
07-14 01:45:10	Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	50	12¢	$6	0xcd84e1…
07-14 01:43:58	Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	10¢	$5	0xa6cc0c…
07-14 01:43:41	Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	11¢	$6	0x1e2948…
07-14 01:43:32	Will Mark Kelly announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	9¢	$4	0x5ed0bb…
07-14 01:43:22	Will Candace Owens announce a presidential run before 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	9¢	$5	0x869a05…
07-14 01:43:14	Will Pat Murphy win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?	Yes	SELL	50	7¢	$3	0x831136…
07-14 01:43:07	us x china tariff agreement by july 31 20260626205549138	Yes	SELL	50	5¢	$2	0xb1ea51…
07-14 01:39:41	Will the Republican Party hold between 195 and 199 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	33	10¢	$3	0x345abf…
07-14 01:39:31	Will J.D. Vance be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	SELL	50	5¢	$2	0x284a5b…
07-14 01:39:20	Will Ventuals launch a token by December 31 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$1	0x2246ea…
07-14 01:38:55	Will Athletics win the 2026 American League Championship Series?	Yes	SELL	50	1¢	$0	0x793b9d…
07-14 01:38:38	Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison?	Yes	SELL	30	6¢	$2	0x128e11…
07-14 01:38:16	Will the Republican Party win the OH-11 House seat?	Yes	SELL	50	5¢	$3	0x347eeb…
07-14 01:38:05	will rayan cherki score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	SELL	50	10¢	$5	0xad6171…
07-14 01:37:50	Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison?	No	SELL	13	90¢	$12	0xabec30…
07-14 01:36:59	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.30 on July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	81¢	$40	0xf9c2d7…
07-14 01:36:41	will ge aerospace ge q2 adjusted revenue be above 11pt75b 20260618015333981	Yes	SELL	50	88¢	$44	0x0f71c2…
07-14 01:36:35	Will Betmoar launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	50	93¢	$47	0x76f4b8…
07-14 01:36:31	Will Wisconsin use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	SELL	50	94¢	$47	0x4c8d8a…
07-13 17:37:49	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	50	24¢	$12	0xebc9f7…
07-13 17:37:41	will manuel bompard advance to the second round of the next french presidential election	No	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0xed4329…
07-13 17:37:35	Ink FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	SELL	50	94¢	$47	0x319eac…
07-13 17:37:26	Will David Miliband be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?	No	SELL	50	98¢	$49	0xc63261…
07-13 03:39:47	will north korea recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	50	97¢	$48	0x0fc0be…
07-13 03:39:41	Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0xbda48a…
07-13 03:39:35	StandX FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	SELL	50	95¢	$47	0xe64b79…
07-13 03:39:25	will the next claude opus model be released by october 31 2026 20260701204710234	Yes	SELL	50	90¢	$45	0x7b0fd6…
07-13 03:39:19	Will the Republicans win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	91¢	$45	0x78c507…
07-13 03:39:13	Will the Republican Party win the MO-04 House seat?	Yes	SELL	50	87¢	$44	0xce8619…
07-13 03:39:08	Will the Republican Party win the TX-22 House seat?	Yes	SELL	50	86¢	$43	0xc01d0e…
07-13 03:39:02	Will Miloš Vučević win the next Serbia presidential election?	No	SELL	50	82¢	$41	0x0c0df1…
07-13 03:38:56	Will the Democratic Party win the TX-31 House seat?	No	SELL	50	82¢	$41	0x704e05…
07-13 03:38:49	will bytedances valuation hit high 800b by december 31 20260701011753594	No	SELL	50	79¢	$40	0xa42e7d…
07-13 03:38:41	will sarah knafo advance to the second round of the next french presidential election	No	SELL	40	93¢	$37	0x7f2b30…
07-13 03:38:14	Will the Republican Party win the CT-01 House seat?	Yes	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0x88e091…
07-13 03:36:49	iran successfully targets shipping on july 16	Yes	SELL	50	11¢	$6	0xc3bf73…
07-13 03:36:43	pedro castillo pardoned in 2026	Yes	SELL	42	19¢	$8	0x7a2783…
07-13 03:36:28	will googl dip to 310 in july 2026	No	SELL	22	87¢	$19	0xda6d97…
07-13 03:36:05	Will USD be at least 1.9M Iranian rials on July 31?	No	SELL	50	85¢	$43	0xd90e1a…
07-13 03:35:56	Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend?	Avengers: Doomsday	SELL	50	85¢	$42	0x88f7aa…
07-13 03:00:44	Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	45	87¢	$39	0x911f55…