French-Cosset — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$37

Unrealized P&L

-$9

Hit rate

70.0%

Resolved (90d)

146

Trades (90d)

533

5,888 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$952

$13.9K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$21

8 positions

First seen

2026-03-29

last 11-02 15:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 160 days

Categories

Other

56% 56% -$172

Politics

37% 55% -$147

Sports

3% 70% +$34

Crypto

3% 68% -$26

Tech

1% 57% -$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

51 active days in 12wk • peak 54 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	-9	-$5	92¢	$-8	-$3	07-05 09:58
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	+9	$5	57¢	$5	$0	10-06 17:55
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	+6	$5	69¢	$4	-$1	09-18 01:58
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	+2	$2	46¢	$1	-$1	09-03 21:11
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	+25	$5	4¢	$1	-$5	09-18 02:00
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+7	$3	12¢	$1	-$2	06-04 02:56
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	+5	$1	7¢	$0	-$1	08-07 16:16
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	+1	-$4	8¢	$0	+$4	05-13 05:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	124	$89	112	112	+0	No	-$1	05-15 00:56
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	55	$88	86	83	+3	No	+$6	05-14 06:03
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	34	$85	154	154	+0	No	+$5	04-26 19:31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	68	$82	240	240	+0	No	+$2	04-27 19:34
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	16	$80	82	82	+0	Yes	+$6	04-19 20:02
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	40	$80	226	226	+0	No	+$2	05-20 07:51
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	29	$79	92	92	+0	No	$0	05-17 17:13
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	15	$79	144	144	+0	No	-$1	07-16 05:23
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	6	$79	109	109	+0	Yes	+$55	05-09 13:13
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	48	$74	88	88	+0	No	+$4	04-21 01:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	12	$74	84	84	+0	No	+$14	04-18 02:22
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	28	$72	75	70	+5	No	-$1	04-21 23:32
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	21	$71	74	74	+0	No	-$2	04-25 16:39
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	67	$70	88	88	+0	No	+$3	04-20 21:49
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	34	$70	53	53	+0	No	$0	05-23 00:14
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	14	$68	39	39	+0	No	-$2	05-18 12:14
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	16	$66	72	65	+7	No	-$8	05-04 05:22
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	21	$62	35	35	+0	No	+$2	05-14 00:22
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?	19	$62	123	109	+14	No	-$16	04-26 19:02
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	42	$62	36	36	+0	No	+$2	04-14 22:56
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	138	$60	68	68	+0	Yes	-$5	05-11 01:13
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	18	$59	37	37	+0	Yes	-$1	04-21 02:54
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	39	$59	36	36	+0	No	+$1	05-05 23:07
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	51	$59	54	53	+1	No	+$1	04-23 07:40
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	20	$56	40	40	+0	No	+$2	04-22 03:41
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	44	$56	70	70	+0	No	+$2	04-21 08:13
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 20 2026	49	$55	60	60	+0	No	-$5	04-20 03:26
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	36	$55	69	69	+0	No	-$1	04-15 21:37
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 23 2026	17	$55	35	34	+1	No	+$1	04-21 22:28
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?	4	$53	38	38	+0	No	+$13	05-03 13:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-02 15:01:43	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	6	96¢	$5	0xcd5bae…
11-02 15:01:25	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	6	89¢	$6	0x988c68…
11-02 15:01:01	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x68ff52…
11-02 15:00:43	Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	7	92¢	$6	0x78a0b3…
11-02 15:00:09	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	9	96¢	$9	0x83e77d…
10-27 21:40:12	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	6	43¢	$3	0x0a61dd…
10-27 21:39:57	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	0	43¢	$0	0xc8a350…
10-27 21:39:51	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	1	43¢	$0	0x563bec…
10-27 21:39:08	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	1	42¢	$1	0x27a06c…
10-27 21:37:44	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	0	40¢	$0	0x5f3e39…
10-27 21:37:11	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	0	41¢	$0	0xb1a94e…
10-27 21:37:06	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	0	41¢	$0	0x36f1fe…
10-27 21:36:57	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	0	41¢	$0	0x31a434…
10-27 21:30:41	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	5	39¢	$2	0x5632f6…
10-27 21:15:51	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0xb93ff3…
10-27 20:47:00	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	1	53¢	$0	0xe70400…
10-27 20:47:00	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	0	53¢	$0	0x44f50b…
10-26 19:49:15	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	14	56¢	$8	0xed8d84…
10-22 15:39:09	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	70¢	$8	0xfe9481…
10-20 14:25:08	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	88¢	$0	0x8f1a3c…
10-15 16:22:19	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	71¢	$8	0x82f2e1…
10-14 21:02:46	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x922727…
10-07 07:57:32	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	SELL	11	91¢	$10	0xb1c05d…
10-06 17:55:21	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xeecd25…
10-05 10:59:47	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4	76¢	$3	0x467cd8…
10-04 09:19:41	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x112c93…
10-04 06:47:52	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	82¢	$0	0xb06eda…
10-04 06:09:31	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	82¢	$0	0xe8b7dc…
10-04 06:09:11	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	82¢	$0	0xda854f…
10-04 06:09:11	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	82¢	$0	0xd9ff9c…
10-04 06:09:11	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	82¢	$0	0xd0fa63…
10-04 01:04:52	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xd847dd…
10-04 01:04:26	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xebbeda…
10-03 20:56:25	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0xec7512…
10-03 20:55:46	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x97c45c…
10-03 04:20:02	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0x2490b2…
10-02 04:25:14	Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x47d2f2…
09-28 21:03:57	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x2312af…
09-27 14:04:14	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4	96¢	$4	0x2aeb5b…
09-27 13:40:44	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x6c88b4…
09-27 12:59:00	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	96¢	$0	0xe7599f…
09-27 09:23:03	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xbb817b…
09-27 09:23:03	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x1e71d6…
09-27 09:11:17	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	96¢	$0	0x582671…
09-27 09:03:48	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	96¢	$0	0xeef0db…
09-27 08:20:09	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	96¢	$0	0xa23744…
09-27 08:14:29	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	96¢	$0	0xe248bc…
09-27 08:04:57	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xcb9b1b…
09-27 08:02:44	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	96¢	$0	0x684869…
09-27 07:59:57	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xb0ddff…
09-25 21:34:29	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	85¢	$0	0xb58ecf…
09-25 20:17:35	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	85¢	$0	0xe064d1…
09-25 20:06:36	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x2aac10…
09-25 15:07:48	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	11¢	$0	0xcab355…
09-25 12:27:50	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	7¢	$1	0x4e979c…
09-25 11:42:56	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4	90¢	$3	0x0992ff…
09-25 11:42:29	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4	90¢	$4	0x144f91…
09-22 18:52:07	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	6¢	$0	0xd923d4…
09-22 11:28:42	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	86¢	$0	0x2ad02a…
09-22 11:26:36	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	85¢	$0	0x063411…
09-22 11:21:33	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	85¢	$0	0x114bc7…
09-22 11:06:09	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0x842afb…
09-22 07:25:46	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x4d4026…
09-22 04:11:07	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x6e7483…
09-22 04:09:09	will satya nadella attend the white house state dinner for xi jinping	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xf28115…
09-22 00:52:09	Giants vs. Rams	Rams	BUY	4	92¢	$4	0x421cba…
09-21 00:38:38	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x2f8b29…
09-21 00:37:29	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xcb1bbd…
09-20 14:25:12	Will "Crew Girl: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xf93301…
09-20 14:23:54	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x1491da…
09-19 15:49:36	Steelers vs. Patriots	Patriots	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0x267156…
09-18 18:05:19	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0x22c6db…
09-18 02:00:10	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	18	14¢	$2	0x5c1f0d…
09-18 01:59:31	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644 414 831	No	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x299eb5…
09-18 01:58:57	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xb16896…
09-14 14:04:37	Will Ink launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x69176b…
09-13 21:04:55	Will Ink launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4	96¢	$4	0x82e7d6…
09-13 21:04:19	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	78¢	$3	0x8bec24…
09-13 05:00:51	Cardinals vs. Chargers	Chargers	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xda8f38…
09-12 23:12:16	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	77¢	$0	0x0aeabb…
09-12 00:10:52	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	7	45¢	$3	0x84308b…
09-11 18:08:46	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	4	16¢	$1	0x1febad…
09-11 14:25:25	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	3	18¢	$1	0x441b68…
09-11 06:44:31	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	78¢	$0	0x1352a2…
09-11 06:24:16	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	38¢	$1	0xd9e099…
09-09 18:25:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	45¢	$1	0xda1d78…
09-09 05:47:03	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30?	Yes	SELL	2	13¢	$0	0xd1e886…
09-09 05:45:25	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0x5f516d…
09-09 05:42:24	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0xa260fe…
09-09 05:37:13	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	16¢	$0	0x274c1e…
09-08 06:29:40	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	83¢	$0	0x76dcb0…
09-08 06:29:39	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	84¢	$0	0x0f86e3…
09-08 06:29:36	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0x4fbc3b…
09-08 03:40:46	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30?	Yes	BUY	4	71¢	$3	0x40990b…
09-08 03:40:15	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?	No	SELL	3	87¢	$3	0xf514f3…
09-07 14:13:01	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	4	78¢	$3	0x1b872f…
09-05 10:32:54	Lacy and Marlon beat gaming challenge by September 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET?	Yes	BUY	3	87¢	$3	0x65e00c…
09-05 10:31:15	Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0xb3d166…
09-03 21:46:42	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	83¢	$0	0x785e96…
09-03 21:13:36	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x0e6531…