Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$7.89K

Unrealized P&L

+$372

Hit rate

58.3%

Resolved

2,708

Trades

15,752

lifetime

Volume

$379.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$24

Open exposure

$21.3K

30 positions

First seen

2026-07-17

last 11-01 21:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 103 days

Categories

Other

62% 43% -$6,955

Politics

23% 43% -$676

Sports

7% 54% -$186

Tech

5% 57% +$99

Crypto

2% 60% +$22

Pop-Culture

1% 29% -$194

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

54 active days in 12wk • peak 461 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (6) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	+3,064	$2,957	96¢	$2.9K	-$16	10-30 04:24
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	No	+3,000	$2,940	98¢	$2.9K	-$2	10-19 19:48
Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	No	+3,000	$2,904	96¢	$2.9K	-$18	10-27 14:27
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+1,633	$1,565	96¢	$1.6K	+$4	10-22 22:24
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?	Yes	+6,125	$1,102	22¢	$1.4K	+$276	10-24 17:58
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	No	+700	$599	100¢	$699	+$100	10-22 18:42
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?	Yes	+3,852	$539	18¢	$674	+$135	10-24 17:58
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?	No	+650	$615	97¢	$630	+$15	10-31 19:39
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	No	+516	$496	98¢	$506	+$11	10-15 17:33
Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028?	Yes	+740	$455	68¢	$500	+$44	10-31 19:43
FDA approves Retatrutide this year?	No	+507	$456	97¢	$492	+$36	10-22 13:56
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	No	+600	$342	74¢	$441	+$99	09-30 08:30
Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	No	+458	$442	96¢	$441	-$2	10-25 22:58
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?	No	+418	$401	95¢	$398	-$3	10-16 17:30
Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat?	Yes	+588	$435	66¢	$391	-$44	10-22 09:55
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?	No	+400	$384	97¢	$388	+$3	10-27 02:01
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?	No	+400	$388	96¢	$386	-$2	10-22 01:47
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?	No	+351	$339	97¢	$340	+$1	10-15 20:01
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?	Yes	+500	$332	66¢	$332	+$0	10-29 17:48
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?	No	+332	$323	98¢	$327	+$4	10-30 15:59
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	No	+400	$328	78¢	$310	-$18	10-31 04:07
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	+480	$374	64¢	$305	-$70	10-02 17:58
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat?	No	+447	$338	67¢	$299	-$39	10-22 09:55
Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by March 31, 2027?	Yes	+1,487	$384	19¢	$283	-$101	10-22 23:40
Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day?	No	+267	$259	98¢	$263	+$4	10-23 14:34
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?	No	+400	$260	64¢	$258	-$2	10-22 05:39
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-11 House seat?	Yes	+300	$255	86¢	$256	+$2	10-29 15:20
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?	No	+600	$270	40¢	$237	-$33	10-21 14:40
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	+508	$235	44¢	$221	-$14	10-28 06:05
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026?	No	+224	$216	97¢	$217	+$1	10-29 17:42

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	3	$3.0K	3,064	0	+3,064	open	—	10-30 04:24
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	1	$2.9K	3,000	0	+3,000	open	—	10-19 19:48
Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	1	$2.9K	3,000	0	+3,000	open	—	10-27 14:27
Will StandX launch a token by June 30, 2027?	1	$2.9K	3,000	0	+3,000	open	—	10-30 17:35
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	2	$2.3K	1,200	1,200	+0	open	—	10-24 13:00
Will Qatar recognize Israel by December 31?	3	$2.3K	1,200	1,200	+0	open	—	10-11 04:07
FDA approves Retatrutide this year?	3	$1.8K	1,200	693	+507	open	—	10-22 13:56
Trump goes to space in 2026?	6	$1.7K	1,793	0	+1,793	open	—	10-29 17:16
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	3	$1.7K	1,116	600	+516	open	—	10-15 17:33
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	4	$1.6K	2,833	1,200	+1,633	open	—	10-22 22:24
perim island no longer under houthi control by october 31 20260916	3	$1.5K	850	850	+0	No	-$113	10-14 23:41
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	22	$1.2K	1,395	1,317	+79	open	—	10-31 12:50
Will Gen.G Go 0-3 in the Worlds 2026 Swiss Stage?	2	$1.2K	600	600	+0	No	+$11	10-19 05:02
Will Vitinha finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	6	$1.2K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	-$8	10-15 02:28
Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31?	1	$1.2K	1,200	0	+1,200	open	—	10-11 04:10
Anduril Industries IPO before 2027?	1	$1.2K	1,200	0	+1,200	open	—	10-02 13:35
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	2	$1.2K	600	600	+0	open	—	10-13 14:17
will spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy pop	9	$1.2K	1,836	0	+1,836	Yes	+$145	07-19 07:33
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31?	1	$1.1K	1,200	0	+1,200	open	—	10-15 06:50
Jimmy Lai released by December 31, 2026?	3	$1.1K	600	600	+0	open	—	10-09 13:52
will gpt 6 be released by august 14 2026	2	$1.1K	1,205	0	+1,205	No	+$69	07-21 13:39
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 21?	2	$1.1K	600	600	+0	No	+$30	10-18 12:44
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska governor race in 2026?	13	$1.1K	663	663	+0	open	—	10-28 09:29
Will "Choosin Texas – Ella Langley" be the top song in the US for 2026?	16	$1.1K	600	600	+0	open	—	10-21 16:23
Will Committee to Protect Journalists win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?	2	$1.1K	600	600	+0	open	—	10-23 06:36
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?	1	$1.1K	6,125	0	+6,125	open	—	10-24 17:58
Will Brian Bengs win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?	6	$1.1K	588	588	+0	open	—	10-31 19:10
Will there be 8+ NFL Scorigamis in the 2026-27 regular season?	7	$1.0K	1,200	282	+918	open	—	10-20 16:51
Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by March 31, 2027?	6	$1.0K	3,174	1,687	+1,487	open	—	10-22 23:40
Will the Republicans win the Kansas governor race in 2026?	17	$1.0K	845	845	+0	open	—	10-26 02:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 22:10:06	Will Moonshot be the #2 AI lab at the end of January 2027?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x9821c0…
11-01 22:10:03	will google be the 2 ai lab at the end of january 2027	Yes	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xbb6e94…
11-01 22:10:03	will meta be the 2 ai lab at the end of january 2027	Yes	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0x32cdc1…
11-01 22:10:00	will anthropic be the 2 ai lab at the end of january 2027	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x9fbbdc…
11-01 22:04:48	Will Micron Q1 DRAM revenue be above $42B?	Yes	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0xed6a5f…
11-01 21:58:00	Will Moonshot be the third-best AI lab at the end of January 2027?	No	SELL	7	95¢	$7	0xdb532e…
11-01 21:58:00	Will Alibaba be the third-best AI lab at the end of January 2027?	No	SELL	7	88¢	$6	0x9486c3…
11-01 21:58:00	Will Microsoft be the third-best AI lab at the end of January 2027?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x91ef15…
11-01 21:58:00	Will StepFun be the third-best AI lab at the end of January 2027?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x91b5f1…
11-01 21:58:00	Will MiniMax be the third-best AI lab at the end of January 2027?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x21ad9d…
11-01 21:55:30	Will Moonshot be the third-best AI lab at the end of January 2027?	No	SELL	7	95¢	$7	0x41c641…
11-01 21:55:30	Will MiniMax be the third-best AI lab at the end of January 2027?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0x1d0600…
11-01 21:55:30	Will Microsoft be the third-best AI lab at the end of January 2027?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x185b7a…
11-01 21:43:54	Will Georgia be a top 4 seed in the 2027 College Football Playoffs?	No	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x0ff5ea…
11-01 21:40:09	Will Ukraine re-enter Zakitne by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	13¢	$3	0x4bfe09…
11-01 21:37:39	Will PP receive between 30% and 32% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x8d6dcb…
11-01 21:24:21	Will Chana Pilane-Majake be the next mayor of Tshwane?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0xffbf5f…
11-01 21:22:55	Will ByteDance be the second-best AI lab at the end of January 2027?	No	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0x4eb215…
11-01 21:22:54	Will ByteDance be the second-best AI lab at the end of January 2027?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xffe2a3…
11-01 21:16:51	Will North Texas Mean Green Win the 2026 American Conference?	Yes	BUY	16	34¢	$6	0x8a266e…
11-01 21:15:55	Will Bad Bunny headline Coachella 2027?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x21f17f…
11-01 21:12:06	Will Glider launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	19¢	$6	0x03cf81…
11-01 21:10:18	Will Moonshot have the best Math AI model at the end of January 2027?	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x78b113…
11-01 21:09:04	Will a player from the ACC win the 2026 Heisman Trophy?	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xd0881b…
11-01 21:08:58	Will Alanyaspor be relegated from the 2026-27 Süper Lig?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x600bed…
11-01 21:08:48	will taylor swifts daily youtube view count hit 14 75m in november	No	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0xa64093…
11-01 21:05:36	Will "Werwulf" be nominated for Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	11	16¢	$2	0x5e4f3d…
11-01 21:01:03	Will Thinky be the third-best AI lab at the end of January 2027?	No	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0xb22e45…
11-01 21:00:58	Will Microsoft be the third-best AI lab at the end of January 2027?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xa65a19…
11-01 21:00:58	will google be the third best ai lab at the end of january 2027	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x44a763…
11-01 20:59:03	McDonald's (MCD) Q3 global comparable sales growth 1% to 2%?	No	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xe2bff0…
11-01 20:58:57	Will Bad Bunny headline Coachella 2027?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0xe6e6b8…
11-01 20:56:09	Will PNV win the most seats in Biscay in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0xa6c07f…
11-01 20:54:30	Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0xcd8b8b…
11-01 20:50:06	Will ByteDance be the third-best AI lab at the end of January 2027?	No	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0xcefd90…
11-01 20:50:06	Will StepFun be the third-best AI lab at the end of January 2027?	No	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x461f75…
11-01 20:50:06	Will Nvidia be the third-best AI lab at the end of January 2027?	No	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0x2505a4…
11-01 20:47:03	will taylor swifts daily youtube view count hit 14 5m in november	No	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x90b7c8…
11-01 20:47:03	will taylor swifts daily youtube view count hit 14 5m in november	No	BUY	15	64¢	$10	0x896611…
11-01 20:44:57	Will OpenAI be the #3 AI Lab at the end of January 2027 (Style Control On)?	No	SELL	20	89¢	$18	0x30ff62…
11-01 20:44:55	Will Xiaomi be the #3 AI Lab at the end of January 2027 (Style Control On)?	No	SELL	30	98¢	$30	0x1b6a8e…
11-01 20:43:15	Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 6?	No	BUY	400	96¢	$384	0xf12b2e…
11-01 20:42:03	Will ByteDance be the third-best AI lab at the end of January 2027?	No	SELL	11	98¢	$11	0xbaac42…
11-01 20:42:03	Will Nvidia be the third-best AI lab at the end of January 2027?	No	SELL	11	98¢	$11	0x86d736…
11-01 20:41:18	Will Xiaomi be the #3 AI Lab at the end of January 2027 (Style Control On)?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x292923…
11-01 20:41:16	Will DeepSeek be the #3 AI Lab at the end of January 2027 (Style Control On)?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x6f8f8b…
11-01 20:34:51	Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	BUY	1,232	1¢	$12	0xe25ff8…
11-01 20:32:55	Will DeepSeek be the #3 AI Lab at the end of January 2027 (Style Control On)?	No	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0x3a13a7…
11-01 20:32:18	will google be the third best ai lab at the end of january 2027	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x9fc74b…
11-01 20:31:52	Will Moonshot have the #1 AI model at the end of January 2027?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x5c6e5e…
11-01 20:31:52	Will Z.ai have the #1 AI model at the end of January 2027?	No	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0x0253f3…
11-01 20:31:51	Will Moonshot have the #1 AI model at the end of January 2027?	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xa28206…
11-01 20:30:51	Will GPT Astra's output price be at or below $25 in 2026?	No	SELL	20	84¢	$17	0x214c8c…
11-01 20:24:22	Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	80¢	$0	0xfdb5f9…
11-01 20:23:16	Will Gen.G and T1 meet in the Worlds 2026 Grand Final?	No	SELL	48	65¢	$31	0x3fc6d6…
11-01 20:22:00	Will Alibaba have the best AI Agent at the end of January 2027?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xd8e611…
11-01 20:22:00	Will MiniMax have the best AI Agent at the end of January 2027?	No	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0xc55b56…
11-01 20:22:00	Will Google have the best AI Agent at the end of January 2027?	No	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0xa6372e…
11-01 20:22:00	Will Xiaomi have the best AI Agent at the end of January 2027?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x9ea127…
11-01 20:22:00	Will Xiaomi have the best AI Agent at the end of January 2027?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x8f5128…
11-01 20:22:00	Will DeepSeek have the best AI Agent at the end of January 2027?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x7016f0…
11-01 20:22:00	Will DeepSeek have the best AI Agent at the end of January 2027?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x640bc0…
11-01 20:22:00	Will Xiaomi have the best AI Agent at the end of January 2027?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x5cee5a…
11-01 20:22:00	Will ByteDance have the best AI Agent at the end of January 2027?	No	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0x52100a…
11-01 20:22:00	Will Nvidia have the best AI Agent at the end of January 2027?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x3e4195…
11-01 20:17:51	Will the ECB make no change to the deposit facility rate at the March meeting?	No	SELL	36	52¢	$19	0x0dcbff…
11-01 20:08:58	Will Claude Sonnet's output price be at or below $8 in 2026?	No	SELL	89	78¢	$69	0xbd3ce2…
11-01 20:07:21	Will Dune: Part Three be delayed?	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0x1de418…
11-01 20:02:16	Will "007: First Light" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards?	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0x573d97…
11-01 19:38:42	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate by 50+ bps at the March meeting?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x7bc4fc…
11-01 19:37:31	Will Moonshot have the best Math AI model at the end of January 2027?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xc33f04…
11-01 19:28:48	Will Sandra Hüller be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0x19cbda…
11-01 19:20:16	Will "Tangles" be nominated for Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	99	53¢	$52	0xedf4b8…
11-01 19:17:30	Will Inde Navarrette be nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	12	22¢	$3	0xce43e2…
11-01 19:17:30	Will Inde Navarrette be nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	470	22¢	$103	0x3db7ea…
11-01 19:16:43	Will Bad Bunny headline Coachella 2027?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x2ae213…
11-01 19:15:55	Will Taylor Swift be the top artist in the US for 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$1	0x729133…
11-01 19:06:52	Will Ukraine re-enter Zakitne by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	14¢	$1	0x9db9b0…
11-01 18:54:03	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	19	15¢	$3	0x5eb080…
11-01 18:47:12	Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x76b0c3…
11-01 18:32:51	Will Gen.G and T1 meet in the Worlds 2026 Grand Final?	No	SELL	8	65¢	$5	0x702689…
11-01 18:29:03	Will DeepSeek be the #3 AI Lab at the end of January 2027 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x09b2ce…
11-01 18:12:40	will moonshot be the third best ai lab at the end of january 2027	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0xbd3624…
11-01 18:05:55	Tori FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	30	36¢	$11	0x7469a0…
11-01 18:04:25	Will "Elsinore" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	100	69¢	$69	0xacd7e1…
11-01 17:59:22	Will Google have the best AI Agent at the end of January 2027?	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x97ac86…
11-01 17:29:03	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	Yes	BUY	150	25¢	$37	0xa55fcd…
11-01 17:29:00	Will White House post 200+ posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No	BUY	0	11¢	$0	0x64e78c…
11-01 17:28:31	Will Camilo Santana be the next Brazilian Chief of Staff?	Yes	SELL	5	63¢	$3	0x9cb8a6…
11-01 17:20:10	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Tamaulipas Congress election?	Yes	BUY	33	80¢	$27	0xbac781…
11-01 17:20:09	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Tamaulipas Congress election?	Yes	BUY	16	80¢	$13	0xcda322…
11-01 17:18:19	will anthropic be the third best ai lab at the end of january 2027	No	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0x081713…
11-01 17:17:55	Will Micron Q1 adjusted gross margin be between 87.5% and 90%?	No	SELL	60	67¢	$40	0x426ab3…
11-01 17:13:00	will alibaba be the third best ai lab at the end of january 2027	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x6addd0…
11-01 17:12:12	Will White House post 200+ posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No	BUY	12	11¢	$1	0x04d9c3…
11-01 17:02:10	Will Tesla deliver between 500000 and 525000 vehicles in Q4 2026	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x2be0dc…
11-01 17:02:06	Will Democrats win 5 or more House seats in Wisconsin in the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x1b8e9e…
11-01 16:59:12	Will AP call US House control by November 3, 11:59 PM?	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x6e8e48…
11-01 16:59:03	Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?	No	SELL	86	92¢	$79	0xb4bdc1…
11-01 16:52:52	will bytedance be the second best ai lab at the end of january 2027	No	BUY	40	92¢	$37	0x24b061…