Light-Mayonnaise — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$11.6K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

70.7%

Resolved

Trades

2,714

lifetime

Volume

$406.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$150

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-19

last 08-02 23:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Sports

50% 54% +$10,908

Other

35% — —

Tech

7% — —

Politics

5% — —

Crypto

2% 50% +$687

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

53 active days in 12wk • peak 147 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (6) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	59	$19.4K	24,634	28,721	-4,087	open	—	06-21 16:14
will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt0t by december 31 922	11	$17.8K	22,422	22,422	+0	open	—	07-30 00:20
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	62	$15.3K	13,555	9,624	+3,932	open	—	05-21 01:21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	19	$12.0K	8,184	8,184	+0	open	—	07-07 08:59
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?	25	$10.4K	6,353	6,414	-61	open	—	08-02 23:43
Spread: Thunder (-14.5)	28	$7.4K	12,941	0	+12,941	open	—	05-21 01:40
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?	22	$7.3K	7,139	6,168	+971	open	—	05-23 00:25
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 211.5	12	$7.1K	9,510	4,755	+4,755	Over	+$2,276	05-09 22:00
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 204.5	4	$6.7K	7,961	0	+7,961	Over	+$1,239	05-14 01:28
starmer out by july 31 2026	36	$6.6K	5,592	5,592	+0	open	—	06-19 20:19
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 15?	10	$6.5K	9,757	4,030	+5,727	open	—	05-15 11:25
Thunder vs. Spurs	16	$6.4K	10,000	2,849	+7,151	open	—	05-23 01:43
Pistons vs. Cavaliers	15	$5.8K	9,000	0	+9,000	open	—	05-16 00:51
Cavaliers vs. Knicks	29	$5.7K	4,000	4,000	+0	open	—	05-22 01:46
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	56	$5.7K	6,024	6,024	+0	open	—	05-23 22:54
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5	20	$5.5K	10,953	0	+10,953	open	—	05-21 00:59
Spread: Knicks (-14.5)	38	$5.5K	10,492	3,559	+6,933	open	—	05-22 02:39
Spurs vs. Thunder	6	$5.2K	13,000	0	+13,000	open	—	05-19 02:35
Spread: Thunder (-9.5)	16	$4.9K	24,235	0	+24,235	open	—	05-24 22:53
will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	14	$4.7K	2,818	7,477	-4,659	open	—	06-20 22:15
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	65	$4.3K	3,000	3,000	+0	open	—	06-07 12:07
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 209.5	19	$4.1K	4,726	2,026	+2,701	Over	+$1,733	05-08 03:40
will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	11	$4.1K	774	4,000	-3,226	open	—	06-09 17:58
Spread: Knicks (-10.5)	3	$4.0K	3,221	3,221	+0	Knicks	+$2,418	05-09 02:15
Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)	3	$3.8K	7,626	0	+7,626	open	—	05-18 00:55
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5	12	$3.8K	2,789	2,789	+0	Over	+$1,754	05-12 02:42
fifwc esp ksa 2026 06 21 spread home 1pt5	1	$3.8K	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	06-21 09:49
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5	4	$3.8K	8,000	0	+8,000	open	—	05-26 20:07
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5	5	$3.5K	5,000	2,500	+2,500	Over	$-1,050	05-10 19:11
starmer out by june 22 2026	15	$3.2K	1,967	1,967	+0	open	—	06-20 16:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-02 23:43:51	AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?	Yes	BUY	27	80¢	$22	0x33896f…
07-31 15:18:11	AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?	Yes	BUY	135	80¢	$108	0x3281ea…
07-31 15:18:09	AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x0d2fbc…
07-30 23:28:26	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	SELL	4,047	8¢	$324	0xb4c212…
07-30 11:23:03	will openais valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 574 287	No	SELL	6	82¢	$5	0x1d43c3…
07-30 07:52:44	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	SELL	19	8¢	$2	0x89582c…
07-30 03:44:32	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	SELL	10	8¢	$1	0xd08258…
07-30 00:58:39	will openais valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 574 287	No	SELL	5	82¢	$4	0x8a0ce3…
07-30 00:20:57	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt0t by december 31 922	Yes	SELL	21,758	36¢	$7,833	0x05d8db…
07-30 00:19:57	will openais valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 574 287	No	SELL	622	82¢	$510	0x25f2c4…
07-30 00:19:08	Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	876	42¢	$371	0x572c8c…
07-30 00:18:44	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	SELL	373	8¢	$30	0xfbed97…
07-30 00:17:05	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	12,835	11¢	$1,412	0x7f9f93…
07-29 12:37:51	AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xaf2693…
07-28 14:35:55	AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?	Yes	BUY	194	84¢	$163	0x780c6a…
07-27 23:09:31	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2,146	17¢	$365	0xcabf9f…
07-27 23:08:43	will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	Yes	SELL	1,852	18¢	$333	0xd636c0…
07-27 23:08:33	will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	Yes	SELL	5,557	18¢	$1,000	0x4a80f8…
07-09 23:33:20	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	No	BUY	5,000	10¢	$500	0x64ff2f…
07-09 23:31:46	Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI?	Yes	BUY	374	29¢	$110	0xa27474…
07-09 23:28:25	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	9,000	11¢	$990	0xdd43df…
07-07 08:59:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	569	93¢	$529	0x5666eb…
07-07 08:38:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	46	93¢	$43	0x09b622…
07-07 08:27:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	225	93¢	$209	0x8d1bfb…
07-07 08:24:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x38d5dd…
07-07 08:22:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	22	93¢	$20	0x2b1ad0…
07-07 08:10:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	7,318	93¢	$6,805	0x828fe7…
07-07 08:10:07	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 first half total 0pt5	Under	BUY	800	32¢	$256	0x4bc5ea…
07-07 00:00:25	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 first half total 0pt5	Under	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x2a5b60…
07-06 23:50:04	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 btts	Yes	BUY	544	57¢	$310	0x60a648…
07-06 21:30:19	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 btts	Yes	BUY	956	57¢	$545	0x38417d…
07-06 21:29:23	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 first half total 0pt5	Under	BUY	99	31¢	$31	0x77bfa2…
07-06 17:32:04	Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,348	29¢	$391	0xa6a58b…
07-06 12:00:05	AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?	Yes	BUY	76	84¢	$64	0x8f23dd…
07-06 11:21:47	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	13	13¢	$2	0xdb6f0d…
07-06 09:10:34	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0xdc3d01…
07-06 07:17:59	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	17	13¢	$2	0xbd01f6…
07-06 07:11:11	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	115	13¢	$15	0x52a03a…
07-06 06:32:25	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	12,680	13¢	$1,648	0x7adb2a…
07-06 01:15:11	Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	289	31¢	$90	0x6e9757…
07-05 22:58:02	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,488	25¢	$372	0xac92d3…
07-05 22:54:55	Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0x019d40…
07-05 21:04:31	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x7b2f05…
07-05 21:04:22	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	25¢	$0	0x5fe0ee…
07-05 17:36:11	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	226	40¢	$90	0x5dc49f…
07-05 17:35:53	Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,205	30¢	$366	0xbd17e3…
07-05 14:04:44	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	OpenAI	SELL	374	16¢	$58	0x3ca4a2…
07-05 14:04:19	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x974549…
07-05 14:03:05	Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?	Yes	SELL	42	0¢	$0	0x6b92c0…
07-05 14:02:50	Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?	No	SELL	307	97¢	$300	0x5814ca…
07-04 21:24:58	AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?	Yes	BUY	284	84¢	$238	0xabcd9d…
07-01 21:23:22	fifwc usa bih 2026 07 01 team to advance	Bosnia and Herzegovina	BUY	4,000	17¢	$680	0x3df653…
07-01 21:22:17	fifwc usa bih 2026 07 01 spread away 1pt5	Bosnia and Herzegovina	BUY	1,338	3¢	$35	0x0b11e7…
07-01 09:16:16	fifwc eng cdr 2026 07 01 spread home 1pt5	DR Congo	BUY	4,000	50¢	$2,000	0x347442…
06-29 23:09:13	fifwc nld mar 2026 06 29 team to advance	Netherlands	BUY	1,312	59¢	$774	0xafe54a…
06-29 16:06:17	AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0x39fbca…
06-28 16:32:20	will openais valuation hit high 1pt0t by december 31 846 461	No	BUY	1,928	23¢	$444	0xd0f05c…
06-27 14:32:55	AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0xc89576…
06-25 22:42:14	AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2,432	89¢	$2,163	0xfecc36…
06-25 20:40:23	will openais valuation hit high 900b by december 31 942 235	No	BUY	1,854	7¢	$130	0xf95a16…
06-25 20:39:38	will openais valuation hit high 1pt0t by december 31 846 461	No	BUY	1,868	14¢	$268	0xeb9082…
06-25 20:36:37	will openais valuation hit high 2pt0t by december 31 937 533	Yes	SELL	2,640	15¢	$409	0x02cbb1…
06-25 20:14:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	355	47¢	$167	0x7496b0…
06-25 20:14:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	1,145	47¢	$538	0x1ebba0…
06-25 20:12:20	will rachel reeves be in the burnham cabinet 20260623004533202	No	BUY	491	48¢	$234	0x6ce860…
06-25 00:02:55	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	824	39¢	$320	0x5438ca…
06-25 00:02:43	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	Yes	BUY	3,136	26¢	$815	0x6419b5…
06-25 00:01:32	will rachel reeves be in the burnham cabinet 20260623004533202	No	BUY	217	54¢	$117	0x9f6bd7…
06-24 09:18:46	AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?	Yes	BUY	72	85¢	$62	0xd7b83f…
06-24 09:17:34	AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?	Yes	BUY	331	85¢	$282	0x4b3561…
06-24 06:51:56	AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,261	85¢	$1,067	0xd3b708…
06-24 00:25:23	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	No	SELL	184	26¢	$48	0x97a77d…
06-23 23:46:26	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	No	SELL	118	26¢	$31	0xf85673…
06-23 23:45:50	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	No	SELL	200	26¢	$52	0x752560…
06-23 23:45:14	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	No	SELL	200	26¢	$52	0x69fa4d…
06-23 23:44:31	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	No	SELL	200	26¢	$52	0xd16439…
06-23 23:43:50	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	No	SELL	200	26¢	$52	0x273117…
06-23 23:02:50	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	No	SELL	3,786	26¢	$984	0xa516b1…
06-23 14:52:20	will openais valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 574 287	No	SELL	458	51¢	$233	0xb362fa…
06-23 11:12:53	will openais valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 574 287	No	SELL	392	51¢	$200	0x6b6654…
06-23 08:53:41	will openais valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 574 287	No	BUY	16	50¢	$8	0x95f541…
06-23 08:22:37	will openais valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 574 287	No	SELL	20	51¢	$10	0x55ff69…
06-23 07:59:32	will openais valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 574 287	No	SELL	300	51¢	$153	0x87e0a9…
06-23 07:27:41	will openais valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 574 287	No	SELL	30	51¢	$15	0xfcc106…
06-23 07:21:20	will openais valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 574 287	No	SELL	100	51¢	$51	0xfc43b0…
06-23 07:08:31	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31	Yes	BUY	45	78¢	$35	0x8f86be…
06-23 07:08:07	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by august 31	Yes	BUY	515	87¢	$448	0xb66488…
06-23 07:07:58	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31	Yes	BUY	1,487	78¢	$1,158	0xa3b173…
06-23 01:42:08	will openais valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 574 287	No	BUY	88	50¢	$44	0x837cb9…
06-23 00:31:16	will openais valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 574 287	No	SELL	200	51¢	$102	0xddb341…
06-22 23:42:40	will openais valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 574 287	No	BUY	36	50¢	$18	0xceefeb…
06-22 23:03:55	will openais valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 574 287	No	BUY	343	50¢	$172	0x492b36…
06-22 23:03:28	will openais valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 574 287	Yes	BUY	416	51¢	$212	0xa4bb4b…
06-22 20:20:23	AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?	Yes	BUY	483	81¢	$391	0xdae1bd…
06-22 20:19:40	will openais valuation hit low 800b by december 31 852 948	No	BUY	2,002	48¢	$960	0x393a8f…
06-22 20:18:44	will openais valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 574 287	No	BUY	200	49¢	$98	0x62d1d1…
06-22 20:18:32	will openais valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 574 287	No	BUY	2,022	49¢	$989	0x0b95b4…
06-22 19:05:37	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt0t by december 31 922	Yes	BUY	21,757	43¢	$9,355	0x92bd88…
06-22 07:46:56	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt0t by december 31 922	Yes	BUY	1	42¢	$1	0xf553c0…
06-21 21:19:07	will openais valuation hit high 2pt0t by december 31 937 533	Yes	SELL	12	16¢	$2	0x728d81…