Timely-Spur — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.02K

Unrealized P&L

+$4

Hit rate

46.9%

Resolved

1,965

Trades

6,905

lifetime

Volume

$70.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

$252

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-17

last 10-27 15:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 170 days

Categories

Other

66% 49% -$562

Politics

23% 36% -$141

Crypto

5% 53% -$56

Tech

4% 33% -$49

Sports

2% 14% -$121

Pop-Culture

1% 25% -$92

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

80 active days in 12wk • peak 171 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	+201	$197	100¢	$201	+$4	10-24 09:38
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	+50	$48	96¢	$48	$0	10-26 03:50
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	+51	$2	4¢	$2	+$0	10-26 01:04
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?	No	+20	$1	2¢	$0	-$1	10-26 01:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	13	$1.9K	1,247	1,247	+0	No	+$0	05-27 13:23
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	12	$1.5K	1,218	1,218	+0	No	+$1	05-26 06:50
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	15	$970	938	938	+0	No	+$0	05-27 14:15
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	11	$942	833	833	+0	No	+$1	05-26 03:34
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	10	$802	711	711	+0	Yes	$0	05-26 14:57
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	7	$621	388	388	+0	No	+$0	05-25 15:42
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	3	$620	500	500	+0	No	+$0	05-25 14:57
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	3	$619	364	364	+0	No	+$0	05-25 14:51
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of May 11 2026?	4	$571	830	830	+0	No	-$24	05-14 09:51
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	10	$551	544	544	+0	No	+$0	05-27 14:37
Will Jonas Vingegaard win the 2026 Tour De France?	10	$533	300	300	+0	No	$0	07-08 07:28
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	3	$499	304	304	+0	No	+$0	05-25 05:24
Will MrBeast's latest video get between 66 and 67 million views on day 4?	28	$462	356	235	+121	Yes	+$7	09-09 15:43
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?	9	$460	330	330	+0	No	+$0	05-27 15:07
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	2	$459	300	300	+0	No	+$9	05-14 18:37
will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	4	$400	343	343	+0	No	-$12	06-08 00:34
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	2	$400	294	294	+0	No	+$0	05-22 10:12
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	5	$399	232	232	+0	No	$0	05-24 17:25
Will MrBeast's next video get between 56.5 and 58.0 million views on day 4?	34	$396	232	272	-40	Yes	+$18	09-23 15:57
will openais astra model be released by september 9 2026	9	$369	300	200	+100	Yes	-$1	09-04 19:01
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June?	8	$366	258	258	+0	No	$0	06-29 00:37
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$360	327	327	+0	Yes	+$0	05-28 17:18
Will Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (MDB) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?	6	$355	200	200	+0	No	$0	07-09 03:18
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 26 and 28 million views on day 2?	24	$352	285	140	+145	Yes	+$27	09-14 11:12
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$343	253	253	+0	No	-$6	06-02 23:47
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	10	$338	311	311	+0	Yes	-$60	05-30 04:02
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	8	$321	330	330	+0	Yes	-$9	06-02 23:48
Will MrBeast's next video get between 65 and 66 million views on day 6?	18	$317	426	0	+426	Yes	+$9	09-25 10:14
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?	32	$309	361	269	+92	No	-$41	08-25 03:08
Will MrBeast's latest video get between 72 and 73 million views on day 5?	29	$301	329	82	+247	Yes	+$39	09-10 11:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 15:38:51	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on October 27?	No	SELL	16	4¢	$1	0xe2b266…
10-27 15:38:51	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on October 27?	No	SELL	4	4¢	$0	0x0471d7…
10-27 15:22:42	Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be -1°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0xf13fd9…
10-27 15:22:35	Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be -1°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	18	0¢	$0	0xe56711…
10-27 15:21:24	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on October 27?	No	BUY	0	4¢	$0	0x23c0b4…
10-27 15:21:24	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on October 27?	No	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x192ffa…
10-27 15:20:47	Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be -1°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0xb40eac…
10-27 10:22:36	Will Anthropic IPO by November 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x511703…
10-27 10:13:02	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	2	24¢	$1	0xe70bc5…
10-27 10:13:00	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	3	24¢	$1	0xa77c25…
10-27 07:49:56	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x8d0e54…
10-27 07:38:08	Will Anthropic IPO by November 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xc8ec99…
10-27 06:20:27	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x0b8f03…
10-27 06:03:11	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on October 27?	No	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x0d871b…
10-27 05:58:12	Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	93¢	$19	0x19341d…
10-27 04:18:44	Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0xd8a47c…
10-27 04:00:44	Will Anthropic IPO by November 16, 2026?	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x03ed93…
10-27 02:55:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0x8f9503…
10-27 02:40:24	Will Anthropic IPO by November 16, 2026?	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0xe13368…
10-27 02:40:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	SELL	5	15¢	$1	0x3f488d…
10-27 02:38:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0x49eb7d…
10-27 02:34:35	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 66-67°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x7c8421…
10-27 02:32:47	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 66-67°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	21	0¢	$0	0x9bb1d8…
10-27 02:28:02	Will Anthropic IPO by November 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0xea3eab…
10-27 02:23:29	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0x557f9d…
10-27 02:23:14	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x4572d1…
10-27 02:19:05	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	23	2¢	$0	0x32dad7…
10-27 02:18:50	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on October 26?	No	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xd54a30…
10-27 02:18:50	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	18	2¢	$0	0x806d05…
10-27 02:15:00	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xce1eec…
10-27 02:07:38	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xdac130…
10-26 12:22:02	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x04892b…
10-26 10:16:53	Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	21	0¢	$0	0x6b82b4…
10-26 10:16:32	Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	27	0¢	$0	0xd388f0…
10-26 10:06:39	Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 6°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	0	0¢	$0	0x837fc7…
10-26 10:06:09	Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 6°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	0	0¢	$0	0x977cb8…
10-26 10:05:35	Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 6°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x4b0689…
10-26 10:05:14	Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 6°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	0	0¢	$0	0xa3268e…
10-26 09:31:56	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on October 26?	No	BUY	1	11¢	$0	0x9aa2dc…
10-26 09:31:38	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on October 26?	No	BUY	1	11¢	$0	0x57d74d…
10-26 09:31:33	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on October 26?	No	BUY	3	11¢	$0	0xd86dbf…
10-26 09:31:33	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on October 26?	No	BUY	6	11¢	$1	0xc0555e…
10-26 09:30:20	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on October 26?	No	BUY	6	11¢	$1	0x6162fc…
10-26 09:30:15	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on October 26?	No	BUY	3	11¢	$0	0x76a679…
10-26 09:19:36	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0xf591ea…
10-26 09:19:36	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	9	90¢	$8	0x20f84c…
10-26 08:53:41	Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 5°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	21	0¢	$0	0x1299a0…
10-26 07:04:36	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on October 26?	No	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0x81e684…
10-26 06:59:14	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on October 26?	No	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0x062ce7…
10-26 06:57:45	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on October 26?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x334feb…
10-26 06:56:54	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on October 26?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x01d456…
10-26 05:55:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x7a55b2…
10-26 05:55:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0xc80431…
10-26 05:54:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x14d122…
10-26 05:51:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xf89301…
10-26 05:51:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x4fcc41…
10-26 05:51:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x0bbd28…
10-26 05:49:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xac252c…
10-26 05:49:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x399e77…
10-26 05:48:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x2b5d20…
10-26 05:47:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x957de9…
10-26 05:47:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x6d6236…
10-26 05:46:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x3973a8…
10-26 05:46:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x8244bd…
10-26 05:46:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x3a0730…
10-26 05:45:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x39a596…
10-26 05:45:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x7b3633…
10-26 05:45:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x6b64a4…
10-26 05:42:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x4c6d75…
10-26 05:41:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0xf65436…
10-26 05:41:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0xf3d4b5…
10-26 05:40:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	45¢	$1	0x087d1d…
10-26 05:40:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x5abed5…
10-26 05:40:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x001706…
10-26 05:40:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x2d5095…
10-26 05:39:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x14bf33…
10-26 05:39:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x0029c4…
10-26 05:38:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xc5aadf…
10-26 05:37:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x78f136…
10-26 05:37:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x3e3eac…
10-26 05:36:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x97029d…
10-26 05:36:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x41b3cf…
10-26 05:35:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xaca887…
10-26 05:35:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xfac00a…
10-26 05:34:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x66041a…
10-26 05:34:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x901492…
10-26 05:32:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x555c91…
10-26 05:31:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xd54d94…
10-26 05:31:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x445b6e…
10-26 05:30:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x3e8004…
10-26 03:50:47	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x66c471…
10-26 03:44:00	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 26?	Yes	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0x7b0d24…
10-26 02:34:02	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 26?	Yes	SELL	5	39¢	$2	0x3f7908…
10-26 02:31:41	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on October 23?	No	BUY	76	0¢	$0	0x97321f…
10-26 02:31:24	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on October 23?	No	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x0b8f11…
10-26 02:31:23	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on October 23?	No	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0xbf4c51…
10-26 02:31:20	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on October 23?	No	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xa65eef…
10-26 01:36:20	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xa66e9f…
10-26 01:04:06	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	51	4¢	$2	0x861790…
10-26 01:01:24	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 26?	No	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x8c45dc…