Frayed-Sidecar — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$159

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

95.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,006

lifetime

Volume

$72.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$72

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-26

last 07-10 20:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

91% 67% +$159

Other

7% — —

Sports

2% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	39	$4.8K	3,527	3,100	+427	open	—	02-28 06:48
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	56	$3.4K	2,309	2,251	+58	open	—	02-28 06:48
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	20	$2.8K	1,600	1,600	+0	open	—	02-24 23:03
us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	20	$2.8K	1,400	1,600	-200	open	—	02-27 04:33
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	28	$2.6K	2,100	2,100	-0	open	—	02-28 06:47
us strikes iran by february 25 2026	16	$2.5K	1,352	1,352	+0	open	—	02-23 21:37
will bhumjaithai party bjt win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	43	$2.2K	2,482	2,482	+0	open	—	02-08 12:42
us strikes iran by january 28 2026 117 856 648 735 438	4	$2.0K	1,516	516	+1,000	open	—	01-28 12:41
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	20	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-02 13:03
will peoples party pple win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	10	$1.9K	1,367	1,367	+0	open	—	02-08 10:01
us strikes iran by february 22 2026	13	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	02-23 04:07
us strikes iran by january 30 2026 273 584 555 114 476	4	$1.7K	845	845	+0	open	—	01-31 05:25
will mara corina machado enter venezuela by march 31 426 698 771	18	$1.7K	1,150	1,150	+0	open	—	03-10 15:24
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	12	$1.5K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	02-15 09:04
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	4	$1.5K	800	800	+0	open	—	02-01 04:49
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?	17	$1.5K	800	800	+0	open	—	02-14 10:19
us strikes iran by january 29 2026 183 883 657 383 499	6	$1.2K	610	610	+0	open	—	01-30 04:48
us strikes iran by february 1 2026	5	$1.2K	600	600	+0	open	—	02-02 03:05
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	12	$1.2K	1,100	1,100	+0	open	—	02-28 06:47
us strikes iran by february 21 2026	7	$1.1K	600	600	+0	open	—	02-22 03:37
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	14	$1.1K	900	900	+0	open	—	02-05 12:32
will bangladesh jamaat e islami win the most seats in the bangladesh parliamentary election	68	$1.1K	3,121	3,250	-129	open	—	02-12 10:01
us strikes iran by february 24 2026	12	$1.1K	600	600	+0	open	—	02-22 20:37
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	7	$1.1K	600	600	+0	open	—	02-10 15:35
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	11	$1.0K	640	440	+200	open	—	02-10 04:58
us strikes iran by january 26 2026 337 214 511	1	$985	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	01-26 17:49
iran strike on us military by january 31	5	$974	500	500	+0	open	—	02-01 05:06
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	7	$848	439	439	+0	open	—	02-21 03:24
iran strike on israel by january 31	4	$807	426	426	+0	open	—	01-27 18:36
us strikes iran by february 5 2026	2	$782	400	400	+0	open	—	02-04 23:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-10 20:20:25	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	28	32¢	$9	0xa06d56…
07-10 20:12:46	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	72	32¢	$23	0x486bdc…
06-23 08:53:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	100	5¢	$5	0xf4dba2…
06-15 09:12:31	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	26¢	$13	0x78ad1a…
05-31 15:03:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	100	34¢	$34	0x324164…
05-29 22:49:24	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	14¢	$14	0x7451bb…
05-22 16:11:22	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x3a2c44…
05-17 09:22:38	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0xa8e5b7…
05-15 19:04:16	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0x54e60f…
05-14 08:30:03	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	22	96¢	$21	0xe3a4c7…
05-14 08:29:13	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	78	96¢	$75	0x10e163…
05-12 18:32:24	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x6dc97b…
05-12 18:21:26	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	200	94¢	$188	0x15476a…
05-05 13:11:04	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	100	68¢	$68	0x3c992f…
05-05 09:34:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	12¢	$12	0xbea46d…
05-04 13:55:18	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0xbcb0b0…
05-04 10:02:10	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0xd1e3c4…
04-29 17:20:22	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	7¢	$7	0xafbd99…
04-28 03:20:04	will the dhs shutdown last 100 days or more 469 748	Yes	BUY	100	39¢	$39	0xdf92c4…
04-22 18:32:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	37	49¢	$18	0xf81cbb…
04-22 18:32:32	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	63	49¢	$31	0x677f07…
04-22 15:40:34	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	47¢	$47	0x50a335…
04-22 14:40:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	48¢	$48	0xee5cf5…
04-21 23:19:20	will the dhs shutdown last 70 days or more 252	Yes	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0xa21890…
04-17 07:36:26	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	SELL	100	96¢	$96	0xf370b6…
04-15 21:42:48	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31?	No	SELL	79	76¢	$60	0x44b0ab…
04-15 21:42:10	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31?	No	SELL	21	76¢	$16	0x8d6776…
04-15 15:06:46	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	SELL	0	96¢	$0	0x3dc204…
04-08 16:25:27	will the dhs shutdown last 70 days or more 252	Yes	BUY	27	59¢	$16	0xa25166…
04-08 14:59:13	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	7	40¢	$3	0xfccc58…
04-08 14:59:11	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	51	40¢	$20	0xe3f856…
04-08 14:39:03	will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	SELL	100	29¢	$29	0x22a01c…
04-08 14:37:45	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	400	0¢	$1	0x5761aa…
04-08 14:21:33	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	100	71¢	$71	0x978aaf…
04-08 14:20:35	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0xdc0bd4…
04-08 13:04:23	will the dhs shutdown last 70 days or more 252	Yes	BUY	13	59¢	$8	0x90ae39…
04-08 11:10:53	will the dhs shutdown last 70 days or more 252	Yes	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x289fb2…
04-08 09:45:11	Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	100	95¢	$95	0x8e84d6…
04-08 09:28:15	will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	14	29¢	$4	0x4eae5a…
04-08 09:18:37	will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x928e87…
04-08 08:58:55	will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	1	29¢	$0	0x1604c5…
04-08 08:35:43	will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xf8523a…
04-08 08:19:57	will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	76	29¢	$22	0xb01332…
04-08 08:16:31	Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	65	94¢	$61	0x10c72a…
04-08 08:16:29	Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	35	94¢	$33	0x6f0a9d…
04-08 08:09:47	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	100	46¢	$46	0xd63737…
04-08 07:55:01	Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0x2d9ba4…
04-06 16:31:09	will the indian national congress inc win the most seats in the 2026 kerala legislative assembly election	Yes	BUY	27	70¢	$19	0xdbae1b…
04-06 16:25:09	will the indian national congress inc win the most seats in the 2026 kerala legislative assembly election	Yes	BUY	8	70¢	$6	0x15d7b3…
04-05 23:00:49	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31?	No	BUY	100	45¢	$45	0x5c71aa…
04-05 10:04:41	will the communist party of india marxist cpim win the most seats in the 2026 kerala legislative assembly election	Yes	BUY	87	24¢	$21	0x7fa555…
04-05 06:22:51	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	470	0¢	$1	0xb95734…
04-05 06:22:43	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0xe9e9ed…
04-04 08:06:25	will the communist party of india marxist cpim win the most seats in the 2026 kerala legislative assembly election	Yes	BUY	13	24¢	$3	0x9db844…
04-03 22:21:25	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	83	14¢	$12	0x694893…
04-03 19:49:45	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	17	14¢	$2	0x98d77a…
04-03 13:12:49	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	200	22¢	$44	0x718589…
04-02 17:17:19	will the indian national congress inc win the most seats in the 2026 kerala legislative assembly election	Yes	BUY	65	70¢	$45	0x300df3…
04-02 16:38:35	will pacto histrico win 27 29 seats in the colombian senate in the 2026 colombian parliamentary election 315 883	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x595097…
04-02 11:29:17	Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	11	40¢	$4	0xec0a42…
04-02 11:15:51	Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	33	40¢	$13	0x555de5…
04-02 10:42:19	Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	40¢	$2	0x7744a5…
04-02 01:21:27	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	200	100¢	$200	0x157521…
04-01 18:51:41	will the dhs shutdown last 70 days or more 252	Yes	BUY	40	35¢	$14	0xf5c470…
04-01 17:35:25	US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	76¢	$76	0x4a7b74…
04-01 16:19:29	will the communist party of india marxist cpim win the most seats in the 2026 kerala legislative assembly election	Yes	SELL	100	25¢	$25	0x67a2fe…
04-01 16:13:21	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	40	46¢	$18	0x4a2802…
04-01 12:20:25	will the communist party of india marxist cpim win the most seats in the 2026 kerala legislative assembly election	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x825dee…
04-01 12:14:57	will the communist party of india marxist cpim win the most seats in the 2026 kerala legislative assembly election	Yes	BUY	3	25¢	$1	0xebe2b5…
04-01 12:14:57	will the communist party of india marxist cpim win the most seats in the 2026 kerala legislative assembly election	Yes	BUY	3	25¢	$1	0x0caf6c…
04-01 12:13:45	will the communist party of india marxist cpim win the most seats in the 2026 kerala legislative assembly election	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xc13cbe…
04-01 11:30:11	will the communist party of india marxist cpim win the most seats in the 2026 kerala legislative assembly election	Yes	BUY	85	25¢	$21	0xd4996c…
04-01 08:07:41	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	100	38¢	$38	0xfb8dad…
03-31 18:48:07	military action against iran continues through march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x736342…
03-31 09:04:41	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	Yes	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0x4dc99c…
03-31 07:22:17	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	100	34¢	$34	0x45e9c9…
03-30 21:37:41	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0xd305df…
03-30 20:52:09	will the freedom movement gs win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 529	Yes	SELL	243	100¢	$243	0x7c4238…
03-29 14:05:16	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	BUY	100	39¢	$39	0x0a9e30…
03-29 13:11:36	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	27¢	$27	0xcf822e…
03-29 11:59:40	russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$1	0xe89d19…
03-28 13:37:59	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0x2cbea6…
03-28 10:32:13	will the dhs shutdown last 60 days or more 988 872 151 791 415 422	Yes	SELL	100	80¢	$80	0x0f3045…
03-28 10:31:55	will the dhs shutdown last 52 days or more 416	Yes	SELL	100	88¢	$88	0xf785bc…
03-27 09:52:53	will the dhs shutdown last 60 days or more 988 872 151 791 415 422	Yes	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0x8cf8dc…
03-27 09:23:31	will the dhs shutdown last 52 days or more 416	Yes	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0x1426f9…
03-23 16:14:31	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	30	55¢	$16	0xa8fc81…
03-22 21:02:45	will the slovenian democratic party sds win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 344	Yes	SELL	253	3¢	$8	0x719b72…
03-22 19:51:45	will the freedom movement gs win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 529	Yes	BUY	43	65¢	$28	0x1c8d18…
03-17 17:28:25	US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0x88397b…
03-17 10:23:33	will benot payan win the marseille mayor election	Yes	SELL	40	88¢	$35	0x976171…
03-16 22:15:27	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 31	Yes	SELL	30	19¢	$6	0xb2f2e6…
03-16 17:58:19	will benot payan win the marseille mayor election	Yes	BUY	40	88¢	$35	0xce9b50…
03-13 23:38:11	will the slovenian democratic party sds win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 344	Yes	BUY	22	84¢	$18	0xea3618…
03-13 23:38:11	will the slovenian democratic party sds win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 344	Yes	BUY	26	84¢	$22	0xd9f745…
03-13 23:38:11	will the slovenian democratic party sds win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 344	Yes	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0xb2e890…
03-13 11:52:05	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	30	75¢	$22	0x51c66c…
03-13 11:26:49	military action against iran continues through march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	8	83¢	$6	0x988f16…
03-13 11:26:43	military action against iran continues through march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	9	83¢	$7	0xeab2af…
03-13 09:56:21	will the slovenian democratic party sds win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 344	Yes	BUY	41	88¢	$36	0x2d8b58…