Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

62.1%

Resolved

Trades

137

lifetime

Volume

$4.19K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$31

Open exposure

$29

1 position

First seen

2026-01-09

last 06-09 21:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

87% 67% +$2

Other

12% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No		+33	$30	88¢	$29	$-1	06-08 22:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	4	$271	141	141	+0	open	—	04-03 02:18
will the us not strike iran by january 31 2026 314	3	$183	162	80	+82	open	—	01-21 11:08
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	5	$161	103	69	+34	open	—	03-27 01:33
us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	1	$159	161	0	+161	open	—	02-23 21:14
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	3	$131	326	326	+0	open	—	01-14 04:00
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	2	$124	129	0	+129	open	—	02-19 21:11
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	3	$124	169	169	+0	open	—	01-14 04:00
will the us next strike iran on january 15 2026 et 421	2	$108	59	59	+0	open	—	01-17 03:01
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	2	$99	52	52	+0	open	—	02-28 06:45
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	3	$97	68	35	+33	open	—	03-27 01:33
us strikes iran by february 15 2026	2	$94	96	0	+96	open	—	02-14 09:23
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	3	$79	85	0	+85	open	—	06-09 21:42
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	2	$79	48	48	+0	open	—	02-28 06:55
us iran nuclear deal by march 31	2	$72	43	43	+0	open	—	03-01 20:41
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	2	$71	53	53	+0	open	—	03-04 06:53
will the us next strike iran on january 25 2026 et 395	2	$70	36	36	+0	open	—	01-26 06:04
will the us next strike iran on january 24 2026 et 848	2	$69	35	35	+0	open	—	01-25 07:22
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	2	$68	71	0	+71	open	—	06-08 22:03
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	2	$66	35	35	+0	open	—	02-23 20:43
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	2	$65	34	34	+0	open	—	01-20 11:19
spx opens up or down on march 2 2026	2	$63	36	36	+0	open	—	03-02 20:30
mojtaba khamenei leaves iran by march 31 2026	4	$63	71	71	+0	open	—	03-28 21:37
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$62	32	32	+0	open	—	03-02 08:53
us strikes iran by february 14 2026	1	$56	57	0	+57	open	—	02-12 04:36
will the us next strike iran on january 20 2026 et 992	2	$52	27	26	+0	open	—	01-21 22:49
will the us next strike iran on january 18 2026 et 229	2	$52	26	26	+0	open	—	01-19 22:11
will the us next strike iran on january 17 2026 et 219	2	$51	26	26	+0	open	—	01-18 06:30
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	1	$50	51	0	+51	open	—	06-07 22:02
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	2	$48	52	0	+52	open	—	05-31 07:13
us strikes iran by february 7 2026	1	$45	47	0	+47	open	—	02-06 12:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 21:42:45	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	26	91¢	$24	0x52b0bd…
06-09 21:42:27	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0xc0afe1…
06-08 22:04:40	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0x700760…
06-08 22:03:42	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	BUY	31	96¢	$30	0xb26704…
06-08 22:03:19	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	No	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0x5ff5e4…
06-08 22:02:52	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	32	95¢	$30	0x5bc552…
06-07 22:02:37	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0xe98784…
06-07 22:02:27	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	No	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0xa0dd39…
06-04 22:14:13	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	No	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0x496ab7…
06-04 22:13:42	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 7 2026	No	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0xd6c5c0…
06-04 22:13:10	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 5 9144	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x091dd9…
06-04 22:12:42	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	28	88¢	$25	0x93ac7c…
06-03 07:33:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	31	96¢	$30	0xda6cf4…
05-31 07:13:35	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	No	BUY	29	97¢	$28	0xf93681…
05-28 07:35:02	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	No	BUY	29	93¢	$27	0x24f60b…
05-28 07:32:05	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	No	BUY	28	98¢	$27	0x5e9cc5…
05-23 09:59:06	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	BUY	19	98¢	$19	0xf89d82…
05-22 22:24:11	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	22	92¢	$21	0x94b1a7…
05-22 22:20:18	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x5d909c…
05-21 06:13:18	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x8b6b4c…
05-20 09:29:57	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x6cada6…
05-20 09:26:09	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	36	84¢	$30	0xe42b64…
05-19 12:16:35	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	16	96¢	$15	0x267467…
05-18 21:16:09	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	13	94¢	$12	0x8dbb06…
05-18 21:15:54	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	No	BUY	24	85¢	$20	0x129bcc…
05-18 21:15:43	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	BUY	24	85¢	$20	0x0f6def…
05-18 21:15:10	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	23	86¢	$20	0x500f8c…
05-16 12:02:15	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	18	90¢	$16	0x8d34c0…
05-16 11:59:18	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x54ada0…
05-16 11:59:02	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0x22a140…
05-16 11:58:13	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0xe62786…
05-16 11:57:49	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	16	96¢	$15	0xf8db77…
05-13 11:21:43	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0xedefbd…
05-13 11:20:45	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 15?	No	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0x233fe5…
05-13 11:17:19	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	20	97¢	$20	0x197fc3…
05-05 11:15:04	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x1b9765…
05-05 03:00:02	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	SELL	21	75¢	$16	0xefd5ce…
05-03 11:33:40	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0x0ffa34…
05-03 11:27:16	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	BUY	19	77¢	$15	0x5da081…
05-03 11:21:04	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	21	86¢	$18	0x9993d1…
05-01 11:03:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0x5c8e4e…
05-01 11:03:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x3307b5…
05-01 11:02:42	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0xee1c49…
05-01 11:02:20	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0x278fba…
05-01 11:02:08	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x57a12b…
05-01 04:10:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	23	95¢	$22	0x0ad2ea…
05-01 04:08:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0xe87c03…
04-29 10:48:48	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	17	91¢	$16	0x7b7d1d…
04-29 10:48:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	17	92¢	$16	0x717e81…
04-28 02:44:16	Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 29?	No	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x387cb8…
04-28 02:43:28	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	32	98¢	$32	0xd5db06…
04-28 02:43:06	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	21	93¢	$20	0xb3785b…
04-26 21:44:42	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0xfb796c…
04-26 21:44:36	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?	No	BUY	31	95¢	$30	0x06ba58…
04-26 21:44:26	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0x8552ef…
04-17 02:30:44	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x83a8a2…
04-17 02:28:30	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x01b527…
04-17 02:26:42	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?	No	BUY	31	95¢	$30	0x781608…
04-17 02:25:10	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	26	77¢	$20	0xdb07ae…
04-17 02:24:36	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	No	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xe6145a…
04-17 02:23:42	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0x392805…
04-17 02:22:14	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	No	BUY	25	80¢	$20	0x0cb603…
04-17 02:21:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	27	73¢	$20	0x2466b8…
04-05 20:31:31	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0xe90b6d…
04-03 02:18:47	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	No	SELL	141	100¢	$141	0xbdb86c…
03-28 21:37:14	mojtaba khamenei leaves iran by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	38	0¢	$0	0x55145f…
03-27 01:33:35	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	No	BUY	33	94¢	$31	0xc3b01c…
03-27 01:33:19	kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	No	SELL	34	93¢	$31	0xc7a0f5…
03-27 01:32:29	kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	No	BUY	34	95¢	$32	0x39d096…
03-27 01:32:05	kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	No	BUY	34	95¢	$32	0x787efe…
03-27 01:30:49	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	No	SELL	35	93¢	$33	0xdfc58c…
03-27 01:30:07	kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	No	SELL	35	93¢	$32	0xcd56ac…
03-27 01:29:33	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	No	BUY	35	94¢	$33	0x71d584…
03-27 01:28:55	kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	No	BUY	35	95¢	$33	0x80b00a…
03-26 20:39:39	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	No	BUY	70	95¢	$66	0xf01b73…
03-20 10:35:09	mojtaba khamenei leaves iran by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	38	3¢	$1	0x402205…
03-20 10:34:33	mojtaba khamenei leaves iran by march 31 2026	No	SELL	32	97¢	$32	0x8ef7f8…
03-17 03:56:57	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	No	BUY	38	91¢	$34	0x6ed1a5…
03-16 09:40:35	mojtaba khamenei leaves iran by march 31 2026	No	BUY	32	93¢	$30	0x56ea23…
03-16 09:39:15	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	No	BUY	34	89¢	$30	0x6017c5…
03-06 11:43:41	Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	No	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0x5b8696…
03-04 06:53:51	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	SELL	53	73¢	$39	0x93a517…
03-03 03:28:09	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	BUY	53	60¢	$32	0xc464a6…
03-02 20:30:35	spx opens up or down on march 2 2026	Down	SELL	36	100¢	$36	0x6ec831…
03-02 08:53:15	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0x713f5c…
03-01 20:41:41	us iran nuclear deal by march 31	No	SELL	43	84¢	$36	0x642ff3…
03-01 03:09:59	spx opens up or down on march 2 2026	Down	BUY	36	74¢	$27	0xf1b9b7…
03-01 00:13:39	us iran nuclear deal by march 31	No	BUY	43	84¢	$36	0x558642…
02-28 21:15:47	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	32	93¢	$30	0x8b188c…
02-28 06:55:01	US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	48	98¢	$47	0x94cd4c…
02-28 06:45:05	us strikes iran by february 27 2026	No	SELL	52	96¢	$50	0x97f4d2…
02-27 20:44:15	us strikes iran by february 27 2026	No	BUY	52	95¢	$49	0x1cf640…
02-25 03:04:08	us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	No	BUY	34	94¢	$32	0x17c1a9…
02-25 03:01:28	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	BUY	32	93¢	$30	0xd8267c…
02-23 21:14:00	us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	No	BUY	161	99¢	$159	0x5f1865…
02-23 20:43:58	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	35	95¢	$33	0x5516fd…
02-22 00:28:08	US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	67¢	$32	0xba133f…
02-19 21:11:42	us strikes iran by february 21 2026	No	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0x5dde44…
02-19 21:11:24	us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	No	BUY	89	97¢	$86	0x69d040…
02-17 21:13:05	us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0xace6ab…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	87	$33.2M	49,583	06-10 03:14
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	85	$1.35M	22,141	06-10 02:34
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	78	$125.0K	1,023	06-08 22:11
Dearest-Agenda 0xbacd…ab35	77	$5.44M	21,150	06-10 01:40
Tough-Mask 0xad52…11ac	75	$143.1K	2,184	06-10 02:25
Hateful-Generation 0x4478…02a4	74	$1.28M	4,893	06-09 23:05
Blond-Wriggler 0xd950…ad1b	73	$142.9K	1,565	06-09 22:47
Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24	73	$50.0K	4,621	06-08 04:30