Immediate-Machine — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$22.3K

Unrealized P&L

+$183

Hit rate

82.8%

Resolved

768

Trades

5,873

lifetime

Volume

$427.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$73

Open exposure

$826

9 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-27 17:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 218 days

Categories

Other

62% 62% +$14,650

Politics

35% 63% +$7,047

Sports

2% 62% +$384

Crypto

1% 100% +$258

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

82 active days in 12wk • peak 34 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	-1,534	-$299	17¢	$-261	+$38	09-19 23:21
Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	+1,000	$250	20¢	$200	-$50	10-23 14:48
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+1,000	$144	17¢	$166	+$22	09-08 02:57
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+1,000	$150	16¢	$155	+$5	10-23 07:32
US strike on Mexico by December 31?	Yes	+1,000	$50	3¢	$34	-$16	10-05 14:01
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+1,000	$4	1¢	$8	+$4	09-08 01:55
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	-73	-$1	3¢	$-2	-$1	04-28 13:31
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+0	-$182	36¢	$0	+$182	09-28 05:48
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	+0	$0	15¢	$0	$0	09-16 09:42

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	41	$18.7K	14,693	14,693	+0	open	—	09-28 05:48
will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	56	$10.2K	9,699	8,699	+1,000	Yes	+$663	06-22 09:52
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	28	$7.8K	6,977	6,977	+0	Yes	-$359	09-09 22:57
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	32	$6.6K	5,593	5,593	+0	Yes	-$326	03-30 13:57
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 19 20260615191216217	14	$6.6K	4,030	4,030	+0	Yes	+$85	06-17 16:17
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	18	$6.5K	5,000	5,000	+0	No	+$10	08-13 15:47
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?	26	$6.5K	5,022	5,022	+0	Yes	+$460	06-17 14:33
will emmanuel grgoire win the paris mayor election	24	$6.0K	3,513	3,513	+0	Yes	+$61	03-22 19:57
us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454 592 696	9	$5.4K	4,000	4,000	+0	open	—	08-18 18:45
will us or israel strike iran on march 1 2026	5	$5.3K	2,718	2,718	+0	Yes	+$106	03-01 09:55
will sophia chikirou advance to the second round of the 2026 paris municipal election	14	$5.0K	4,635	1,851	+2,783	Yes	+$38	03-18 17:05
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	8	$4.9K	4,000	4,000	+0	No	+$258	06-01 15:17
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	51	$4.5K	4,359	4,359	+0	Yes	+$747	07-01 16:55
saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	26	$4.4K	4,010	4,010	+0	No	+$47	09-30 08:14
iran closes its airspace by june 8	40	$4.2K	5,000	5,000	+0	Yes	+$85	06-07 21:08
will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	45	$4.2K	3,962	3,962	+0	Yes	+$351	07-13 20:19
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup?	15	$4.1K	2,891	1,891	+1,000	Yes	+$109	07-07 16:40
netanyahu out by march 31 854	2	$3.9K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	+$12	03-18 06:14
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	7	$3.9K	2,200	2,200	+0	Yes	+$204	04-16 15:44
ballon dor 2026 kylian mbappe or lamine yamal to finish higher	20	$3.7K	3,040	3,040	+0	Mbappé	+$352	10-25 01:28
Will Carole Delga advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	1	$3.6K	3,718	0	+3,718	open	—	10-08 09:01
will israel strike lebanon on january 30 2026	24	$3.5K	2,615	2,615	+0	Yes	-$3	01-30 12:22
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	20	$3.4K	3,693	3,186	+507	No	+$626	05-25 09:18
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	18	$3.1K	2,194	2,194	+0	Yes	+$6	10-26 21:16
will wti reach 105 in september 2026	9	$3.1K	2,009	2,009	+0	Yes	+$193	09-15 13:32
us announces end of iranian blockade by march 31 2027	5	$3.1K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	10-14 22:56
Will there be no next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026?	11	$3.0K	1,911	1,911	-0	Yes	+$318	07-20 17:18
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	17	$2.8K	4,652	4,652	+0	open	—	07-07 11:58
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	23	$2.8K	2,394	2,894	-500	No	+$665	05-05 17:23
will the total number of tsa passengers for march 9 march 15 be between 16500000 and 17000000 354	1	$2.6K	2,638	0	+2,638	No	+$4	03-16 12:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 18:09:51	Will voter turnout be 74% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	970	95¢	$925	0xebd368…
10-27 18:07:57	Will voter turnout be 74% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	30	95¢	$29	0x27a833…
10-27 17:38:35	Will voter turnout be 74% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	1,000	95¢	$952	0x686e9a…
10-27 02:21:50	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	29	8¢	$2	0xb202f9…
10-26 21:16:09	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	1,000	74¢	$736	0x97f511…
10-26 20:04:15	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	717	76¢	$547	0xa52e8f…
10-26 20:03:53	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	12	76¢	$9	0xaa3022…
10-26 20:03:51	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	30	76¢	$23	0x780ac9…
10-26 20:03:50	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	76	76¢	$58	0x7e85ae…
10-26 20:03:44	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	0	76¢	$0	0x18d2b7…
10-26 20:03:41	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0xdb902c…
10-26 20:03:39	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	160	76¢	$122	0xc29d0d…
10-26 17:37:24	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	SELL	18	54¢	$10	0x724a67…
10-26 17:36:50	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	SELL	7	54¢	$4	0x9f72e6…
10-26 17:11:20	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	SELL	375	68¢	$255	0xc485f1…
10-26 16:52:56	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	BUY	400	40¢	$160	0xf0c82a…
10-26 16:52:56	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	No	SELL	11	40¢	$4	0x577edb…
10-26 16:49:57	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	No	BUY	11	31¢	$3	0x10e25e…
10-26 16:42:05	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	SELL	130	68¢	$89	0x5c7077…
10-26 13:27:39	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	BUY	130	53¢	$69	0x817649…
10-26 11:49:36	Will Marine Tondelier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	904	74¢	$671	0x45c16e…
10-26 00:04:50	Will Lana Nusseibeh be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	Yes	SELL	210	33¢	$69	0xd3290b…
10-25 23:16:30	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	1,000	10¢	$100	0x12dbcc…
10-25 23:12:45	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	1,000	12¢	$120	0x32d761…
10-25 22:49:12	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	SELL	360	39¢	$140	0xdf01a2…
10-25 22:48:15	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	SELL	198	35¢	$69	0xc217d6…
10-25 22:48:11	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	SELL	130	35¢	$46	0x8df039…
10-25 22:48:09	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	SELL	10	35¢	$4	0x3f5d63…
10-25 22:48:06	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	SELL	11	35¢	$4	0x706c25…
10-25 22:47:44	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	SELL	41	35¢	$14	0x88e2f4…
10-25 22:47:14	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	SELL	250	35¢	$87	0xfab0e2…
10-25 22:46:36	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	1,000	31¢	$310	0x6dd412…
10-25 22:21:35	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1,000	71¢	$710	0x8ef096…
10-25 22:08:12	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	70	47¢	$33	0xc0b613…
10-25 22:08:12	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	809	47¢	$381	0xbcd030…
10-25 22:07:53	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	83	47¢	$39	0xf1af79…
10-25 22:07:53	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	39	47¢	$18	0x21d314…
10-25 17:17:29	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	SELL	475	63¢	$298	0xacfd0a…
10-25 15:43:05	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,000	90¢	$900	0x85f96a…
10-25 15:41:26	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	90¢	$0	0x178b03…
10-25 15:33:05	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?	Yes	BUY	500	37¢	$185	0x314976…
10-25 15:32:09	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?	Yes	BUY	500	32¢	$162	0x75ce2c…
10-25 14:46:51	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	SELL	407	45¢	$183	0x2f1027…
10-25 14:45:15	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	SELL	17	45¢	$8	0xda6f23…
10-25 14:42:24	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	SELL	4	45¢	$2	0x95d130…
10-25 14:41:30	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	SELL	438	45¢	$197	0x3bfdc0…
10-25 14:31:32	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	SELL	133	45¢	$60	0xc45d66…
10-25 14:06:05	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	432	45¢	$194	0xc6418e…
10-25 14:06:05	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	150	45¢	$68	0x70a716…
10-25 14:06:05	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	185	45¢	$83	0x6181ff…
10-25 14:06:05	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	124	45¢	$56	0x38d992…
10-25 14:06:05	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	109	45¢	$49	0x227522…
10-25 01:28:32	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	SELL	580	75¢	$435	0x87764c…
10-25 01:20:17	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	SELL	1,460	75¢	$1,095	0x0f2cb4…
10-24 23:48:18	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	SELL	262	60¢	$157	0x5dc43d…
10-24 20:08:45	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	SELL	500	59¢	$293	0x7a6ff4…
10-24 19:48:59	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	BUY	762	57¢	$431	0xc7826b…
10-24 19:48:20	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	BUY	475	55¢	$261	0xd2bb88…
10-24 14:11:57	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	1,194	70¢	$837	0xaf8450…
10-24 13:51:21	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	796	67¢	$537	0x63f037…
10-24 13:51:14	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xa7a93c…
10-24 13:50:30	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	18	67¢	$12	0x7121ba…
10-24 13:50:29	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	39	67¢	$26	0xafa6cc…
10-24 13:50:27	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	31	67¢	$21	0x44dc43…
10-24 13:50:23	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	18	67¢	$12	0xcf5421…
10-24 13:50:20	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	41	67¢	$27	0xd6c5e2…
10-24 13:50:17	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	41	67¢	$27	0x41c2af…
10-24 13:50:15	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	209	67¢	$141	0x03ecbe…
10-23 14:48:42	Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	76	25¢	$19	0xc2df35…
10-23 14:48:36	Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	125	25¢	$31	0xec04f0…
10-23 14:48:30	Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	83	25¢	$21	0xe1feae…
10-23 14:48:24	Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	166	25¢	$42	0x31b5c7…
10-23 14:48:15	Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	549	25¢	$137	0xb4f502…
10-23 08:24:57	Will Michael Olise finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	312	73¢	$228	0xfd192f…
10-23 07:37:27	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by January 15, 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,000	46¢	$457	0x98ef92…
10-23 07:32:11	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	15¢	$150	0xb1162e…
10-22 14:26:56	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by January 15, 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,000	42¢	$420	0x647843…
10-21 23:11:05	Will Lana Nusseibeh be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	Yes	BUY	420	14¢	$61	0x8b7739…
10-21 14:08:32	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 24?	Yes	SELL	147	10¢	$15	0x299ec8…
10-21 14:06:59	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 24?	Yes	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0x2d23bf…
10-21 14:06:42	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 24?	Yes	SELL	168	16¢	$27	0x4758ca…
10-21 13:48:17	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 24?	Yes	BUY	335	15¢	$50	0x41a6fa…
10-21 10:17:20	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	742	66¢	$490	0xe07e34…
10-21 10:09:29	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0xd4930e…
10-21 09:46:18	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	21	66¢	$14	0x25321d…
10-21 09:38:48	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x82ffc6…
10-21 09:24:02	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0xb2836e…
10-21 08:52:23	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	7	66¢	$5	0x4c8f5a…
10-21 07:59:30	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	50	66¢	$33	0xb39e17…
10-21 04:33:14	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	46	66¢	$30	0x727bc3…
10-20 22:23:47	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	45	8¢	$4	0xdbd8fa…
10-20 22:18:14	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	102	66¢	$67	0x04cb7e…
10-20 17:25:17	Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	32	2¢	$0	0x32e90b…
10-20 15:52:21	Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	300	13¢	$39	0x98306c…
10-20 14:30:44	Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	215	18¢	$39	0xeca63e…
10-20 07:49:05	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	BUY	40	70¢	$28	0xe3a980…
10-19 17:15:27	Curfew in a major French city by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	35	83¢	$29	0xd19552…
10-19 17:15:12	Curfew in a major French city by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	101	83¢	$84	0xac6fdd…
10-19 17:15:06	Curfew in a major French city by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	97	83¢	$81	0x710ae0…
10-19 17:14:51	Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026?	Yes	SELL	45	70¢	$31	0x9cef87…