Incomparable-Zone-Birdbath — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$761

Unrealized P&L

+$5

Hit rate

55.9%

Resolved

2,253

Trades

6,695

lifetime

Volume

$146.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$22

Open exposure

$407

7 positions

First seen

2026-04-29

last 11-02 10:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 165 days

Categories

Other

44% 7% -$648

Crypto

24% 93% +$30

Politics

23% 4% -$137

Tech

5% 25% -$3

Sports

3% 15% -$3

Pop-Culture

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

80 active days in 12wk • peak 139 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?	No	+200	$180	92¢	$185	+$5	10-26 08:42
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?	No	+114	$106	93¢	$106	+$0	10-25 21:42
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?	No	+69	$63	93¢	$64	+$1	10-26 10:20
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?	No	+40	$35	86¢	$35	-$1	10-28 08:46
Will Xiaomi be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?	No	+20	$18	88¢	$18	$0	10-27 02:45
UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?	Yes	+0	$0	4¢	$0	$0	10-06 19:44
Will Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?	Yes	+0	$0	9¢	$0	$0	10-03 16:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	7	$3.2K	1,750	1,750	+0	Yes	-$19	09-22 13:21
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	8	$2.8K	1,540	1,540	+0	No	-$8	10-12 16:02
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	16	$1.7K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	10-23 22:04
Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?	13	$1.6K	1,290	1,290	+0	open	—	11-01 02:59
France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026?	2	$1.5K	800	800	+0	open	—	10-29 13:53
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	4	$1.5K	800	800	+0	open	—	10-31 13:28
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?	2	$1.3K	750	750	+0	open	—	10-13 15:12
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?	6	$1.3K	750	750	+0	open	—	10-13 15:20
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	2	$1.1K	600	600	+0	open	—	10-03 03:34
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	2	$1.1K	600	600	+0	open	—	10-03 04:21
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	8	$1.1K	1,337	1,337	+0	open	—	10-31 12:48
Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	7	$1.1K	555	555	-0	open	—	10-16 20:01
Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	2	$1.1K	600	600	+0	open	—	10-03 04:41
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?	8	$988	550	550	+0	open	—	10-31 09:37
Will Pablo Picasso be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026?	9	$973	550	550	+0	open	—	10-29 19:59
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	4	$942	600	600	+0	open	—	10-14 18:30
Will LSU Tigers win the 2027 CFP National Championship?	4	$916	503	503	+0	open	—	11-02 04:52
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	8	$838	450	450	+0	open	—	10-12 12:54
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?	7	$825	572	572	+0	Yes	-$2	09-22 18:50
Anthropic lab leak by June 30, 2027?	2	$824	450	450	+0	open	—	09-29 04:42
Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 17, 2026?	5	$775	404	404	+0	No	$0	10-09 16:46
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	11	$773	450	450	+0	No	-$2	09-20 00:53
Israel Election: Arab party disqualified?	2	$762	400	400	+0	open	—	10-31 16:35
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	4	$758	600	600	+0	open	—	10-29 17:48
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	4	$755	400	400	+0	open	—	10-17 11:07
Israeli Knesset election annulled?	3	$754	400	400	+0	open	—	10-31 04:42
Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	3	$753	400	400	+0	open	—	10-19 11:14
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	2	$752	400	400	+0	open	—	10-29 17:31
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	11	$746	600	600	+0	open	—	10-01 10:44
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	5	$733	400	400	+0	open	—	09-12 05:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-02 10:17:31	AI bubble burst in 2026?	Yes	SELL	80	7¢	$6	0x8c1dbb…
11-02 10:17:16	AI bubble burst in 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	8¢	$7	0x36d8c3…
11-02 09:54:01	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	100	90¢	$90	0xdee6e2…
11-02 09:53:52	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0x8081c6…
11-02 06:24:01	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	5¢	$2	0x9d2c7d…
11-02 06:23:43	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	5¢	$2	0xbe2176…
11-02 06:18:00	Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by December 31?	Yes	SELL	80	92¢	$74	0xbefcae…
11-02 06:17:49	Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by December 31?	Yes	BUY	14	92¢	$13	0x5b50b7…
11-02 06:17:48	Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x92b0a7…
11-02 06:17:48	Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	92¢	$6	0x1d0439…
11-02 06:17:48	Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x10aa20…
11-02 06:17:46	Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x3a71fb…
11-02 06:00:28	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut in the top 10 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	150	94¢	$141	0x4a0c1d…
11-02 06:00:06	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut in the top 10 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	150	94¢	$141	0xa3731d…
11-02 05:45:15	Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	No	SELL	20	88¢	$18	0x496b0b…
11-02 05:44:58	Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x6d7cfc…
11-02 04:52:46	Will LSU Tigers win the 2027 CFP National Championship?	No	SELL	400	91¢	$365	0x2c9d23…
11-02 04:52:31	Will LSU Tigers win the 2027 CFP National Championship?	No	BUY	400	91¢	$365	0xe13f40…
11-02 04:22:51	Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?	Yes	SELL	50	8¢	$4	0xac2009…
11-02 04:22:33	Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?	Yes	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0x2982ea…
11-02 03:04:51	Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	6¢	$3	0x3b308f…
11-02 03:04:34	Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	6¢	$4	0x71f062…
11-02 00:27:15	Next Israeli government formed by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	4¢	$8	0x7674f4…
11-02 00:27:03	Next Israeli government formed by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	4¢	$8	0xfb4688…
11-01 23:19:46	Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	1¢	$2	0xed5d46…
11-01 19:53:13	Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	4¢	$8	0x5cb435…
11-01 19:52:43	Will Mark Scheifele record 50+ goals in the 2026-27 regular season?	Yes	SELL	13	0¢	$0	0xe1bcfd…
11-01 19:52:15	Will Mark Scheifele record 50+ goals in the 2026-27 regular season?	Yes	SELL	7	0¢	$0	0x572ac3…
11-01 19:51:58	Will Mark Scheifele record 50+ goals in the 2026-27 regular season?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x7c69d5…
11-01 19:17:19	Will Taylor Swift be the top artist in the US for 2026?	No	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0xe69010…
11-01 19:17:09	Will Taylor Swift be the top artist in the US for 2026?	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x9f7267…
11-01 19:00:58	Spain General Election: PP + Vox Majority?	Yes	SELL	60	90¢	$54	0x1bb15d…
11-01 19:00:51	Spain General Election: PP + Vox Majority?	Yes	BUY	36	90¢	$32	0x7dff35…
11-01 19:00:42	Spain General Election: PP + Vox Majority?	Yes	BUY	24	90¢	$22	0xb7b002…
11-01 16:46:19	Will Will Venable win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year?	No	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0xa786da…
11-01 16:45:55	Will Will Venable win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x9bd42f…
11-01 16:42:46	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	SELL	37	6¢	$2	0xce41d0…
11-01 16:42:18	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	SELL	25	7¢	$2	0xab0125…
11-01 16:42:03	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	BUY	62	7¢	$4	0xafc844…
11-01 16:10:51	Will Tunisia recognize Israel by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$2	0x2b2db4…
11-01 16:10:43	Will Tunisia recognize Israel by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0xb1103a…
11-01 15:44:10	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	170	1¢	$2	0x29a233…
11-01 15:43:43	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	30	1¢	$0	0x874b54…
11-01 15:43:25	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0x5ca8fe…
11-01 10:26:25	OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0x6c49cb…
11-01 10:26:12	OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0x738e80…
11-01 08:54:34	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	SELL	39	90¢	$35	0x6e1825…
11-01 08:54:06	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	SELL	41	90¢	$37	0x3171d4…
11-01 08:54:01	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	BUY	39	90¢	$35	0x2a8c7b…
11-01 08:53:54	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	BUY	41	90¢	$37	0x5f0ac6…
11-01 06:38:16	Will Zach Hyman record 50+ goals in the 2026-27 regular season?	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x10095b…
11-01 06:38:09	Will Zach Hyman record 50+ goals in the 2026-27 regular season?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xf3b7a8…
11-01 05:47:04	Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Meta by December 31?	Yes	SELL	200	2¢	$5	0x63d1c5…
11-01 05:46:58	Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Meta by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	3¢	$6	0x75bb9d…
11-01 05:15:37	Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Israel by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	0¢	$0	0x5ae110…
11-01 05:15:19	Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Israel by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$2	0x7a351a…
11-01 03:28:24	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher?	No	SELL	45	6¢	$3	0x927d02…
11-01 03:28:16	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher?	No	BUY	45	6¢	$3	0xa349a3…
11-01 03:27:15	Will Marathon win Best Multiplayer at the 2026 Game Awards?	No	BUY	0	91¢	$0	0xcc9fa7…
11-01 03:27:15	Will Marathon win Best Multiplayer at the 2026 Game Awards?	No	BUY	0	91¢	$0	0x8ef62e…
11-01 03:09:27	Will Marathon win Best Multiplayer at the 2026 Game Awards?	Yes	SELL	2	9¢	$0	0x4931d9…
11-01 03:09:12	Will Marathon win Best Multiplayer at the 2026 Game Awards?	Yes	BUY	2	9¢	$0	0xac7e12…
11-01 02:59:13	Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	94	3¢	$3	0x305267…
11-01 02:58:46	Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	44	4¢	$2	0x29906e…
11-01 02:58:19	Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	242	4¢	$10	0x9fddfc…
11-01 02:57:52	Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x8da72c…
11-01 02:57:42	Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	6¢	$24	0xa82fc9…
11-01 02:57:25	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30?	No	SELL	10	89¢	$9	0xc772c8…
11-01 02:55:37	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30?	No	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0x69f0d6…
11-01 02:55:34	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xf73976…
11-01 02:55:24	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x688897…
11-01 00:27:15	Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?	Yes	SELL	79	5¢	$4	0x2d8692…
11-01 00:26:48	Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?	Yes	SELL	121	6¢	$7	0x523928…
11-01 00:26:42	Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?	Yes	BUY	118	6¢	$7	0xfd0d39…
11-01 00:26:31	Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?	Yes	BUY	82	6¢	$5	0x2d4e27…
10-31 23:05:51	Will Indiana Hoosiers win the 2027 CFP National Championship?	Yes	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0x1b10e6…
10-31 23:05:42	Will Indiana Hoosiers win the 2027 CFP National Championship?	Yes	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0xb11c66…
10-31 20:38:18	Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	90¢	$20	0x6886c3…
10-31 20:37:51	Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	38	92¢	$35	0xbeb84b…
10-31 20:37:46	Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	93¢	$21	0x833b8a…
10-31 20:37:43	Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	93¢	$35	0x2d525d…
10-31 20:33:18	Will Trump nationalize elections?	Yes	SELL	68	7¢	$5	0x02893b…
10-31 20:32:48	Will Trump nationalize elections?	Yes	SELL	93	8¢	$7	0xbabd1f…
10-31 20:32:43	Will Trump nationalize elections?	Yes	BUY	68	8¢	$5	0xcdbf79…
10-31 20:32:42	Will Trump nationalize elections?	Yes	BUY	93	8¢	$7	0xcb7d2c…
10-31 18:21:22	Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI?	Yes	SELL	34	6¢	$2	0x115f66…
10-31 18:20:57	Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI?	Yes	SELL	6	7¢	$0	0x66daf1…
10-31 18:20:30	Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI?	Yes	SELL	40	6¢	$2	0x2a34d9…
10-31 18:20:16	Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI?	Yes	BUY	41	7¢	$3	0x419cc8…
10-31 18:20:12	Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI?	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x4da92a…
10-31 18:20:04	Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI?	Yes	BUY	19	7¢	$1	0x6fbd47…
10-31 17:16:43	Will John Tavares record 80+ points in the 2026-27 regular season?	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0xbbaebf…
10-31 17:16:34	Will John Tavares record 80+ points in the 2026-27 regular season?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0xf96f4a…
10-31 16:35:39	Israel Election: Arab party disqualified?	No	SELL	400	95¢	$380	0x3f2b14…
10-31 16:35:19	Israel Election: Arab party disqualified?	No	BUY	400	96¢	$383	0x7e0980…
10-31 16:23:46	Will Drake be the top artist for 2026?	No	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0xe2bec6…
10-31 16:23:37	Will Drake be the top artist for 2026?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xcbb358…
10-31 13:28:10	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	285	91¢	$259	0xd0da80…
10-31 13:27:42	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	515	92¢	$474	0xce823b…
10-31 13:27:28	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	34	92¢	$32	0x68cd4b…