Incomparable-Zone-Birdbath — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$931

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

49.4%

Resolved

2,549

Trades

6,849

lifetime

Volume

$150.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$22

Open exposure

$1.02K

9 positions

First seen

2026-04-29

last 11-05 00:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 168 days

Categories

Other

45% 3% -$762

Crypto

24% 93% +$30

Politics

23% 4% -$186

Tech

5% 20% -$5

Sports

3% 15% -$3

Pop-Culture

1% 33% -$6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

82 active days in 12wk • peak 139 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (6) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	+300	$276	92¢	$278	+$2	11-03 19:23
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	+200	$198	98¢	$196	-$3	11-03 02:43
France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?	No	+200	$180	94¢	$187	+$7	10-26 08:42
Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?	No	+200	$188	92¢	$184	-$3	10-16 18:26
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?	No	+114	$106	92¢	$105	-$1	10-25 21:42
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?	No	+69	$63	94¢	$65	+$2	10-26 10:20
UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?	Yes	+0	$0	4¢	$0	$0	10-06 19:44
Will Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?	Yes	+0	$0	8¢	$0	$0	10-03 16:57
Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?	Yes	+0	$0	8¢	$0	+$0	10-06 00:14

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	7	$3.2K	1,750	1,750	+0	Yes	-$19	09-22 13:21
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	8	$2.8K	1,540	1,540	+0	No	-$8	10-12 16:02
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	16	$1.7K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	10-23 22:04
Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?	13	$1.6K	1,290	1,290	+0	open	—	11-01 02:59
France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026?	2	$1.5K	800	800	+0	open	—	10-29 13:53
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	4	$1.5K	800	800	+0	open	—	10-31 13:28
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?	2	$1.3K	750	750	+0	open	—	10-13 15:12
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?	6	$1.3K	750	750	+0	open	—	10-13 15:20
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	2	$1.1K	600	600	+0	open	—	10-03 03:34
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	2	$1.1K	600	600	+0	open	—	10-03 04:21
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	8	$1.1K	1,337	1,337	+0	open	—	10-31 12:48
Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	7	$1.1K	555	555	-0	open	—	10-16 20:01
Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	2	$1.1K	600	600	+0	open	—	10-03 04:41
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	12	$990	700	400	+300	open	—	11-03 19:23
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?	8	$988	550	550	+0	open	—	10-31 09:37
Will Pablo Picasso be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026?	9	$973	550	550	+0	open	—	10-29 19:59
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	4	$942	600	600	+0	open	—	10-14 18:30
Will LSU Tigers win the 2027 CFP National Championship?	4	$916	503	503	+0	open	—	11-02 04:52
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	8	$838	450	450	+0	open	—	10-12 12:54
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?	7	$825	572	572	+0	Yes	-$2	09-22 18:50
Anthropic lab leak by June 30, 2027?	2	$824	450	450	+0	open	—	09-29 04:42
Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 17, 2026?	5	$775	404	404	+0	No	$0	10-09 16:46
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	11	$773	450	450	+0	No	-$2	09-20 00:53
Israel Election: Arab party disqualified?	2	$762	400	400	+0	open	—	10-31 16:35
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	4	$758	600	600	+0	open	—	10-29 17:48
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	4	$755	400	400	+0	open	—	10-17 11:07
Israeli Knesset election annulled?	5	$755	408	408	+0	open	—	11-02 11:45
Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	3	$753	400	400	+0	No	+$0	10-19 11:14
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	2	$752	400	400	+0	open	—	10-29 17:31
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	11	$746	600	600	+0	open	—	10-01 10:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 03:36:46	Will the New Jersey Devils be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	No	SELL	50	92¢	$46	0x9c79fa…
11-05 03:36:39	Will the New Jersey Devils be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	No	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0x158e8e…
11-05 00:49:40	Greenland snap election called by December 31?	Yes	SELL	17	2¢	$0	0xf765fb…
11-05 00:49:24	Greenland snap election called by December 31?	Yes	BUY	17	2¢	$0	0x6e2b48…
11-05 00:43:19	Brazil's top courts strike down oil export tax by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	50	89¢	$44	0x8a4dea…
11-05 00:42:57	Brazil's top courts strike down oil export tax by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	36	90¢	$33	0xdcc677…
11-05 00:42:57	Brazil's top courts strike down oil export tax by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	14	90¢	$12	0x2a3a3b…
11-04 22:56:39	Will Vladan Đokić win the next Serbia presidential election?	Yes	SELL	60	7¢	$4	0xe60ab4…
11-04 22:56:25	Will Vladan Đokić win the next Serbia presidential election?	Yes	BUY	60	7¢	$4	0x1cd6bf…
11-04 22:44:40	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C?	No	SELL	60	88¢	$53	0x638cdc…
11-04 22:44:27	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C?	No	BUY	60	88¢	$53	0x512caf…
11-04 22:25:43	Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	No	SELL	41	89¢	$36	0x5817c3…
11-04 22:24:49	Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	No	SELL	9	93¢	$9	0x484fd7…
11-04 22:24:45	Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	No	BUY	41	93¢	$38	0xa2d74a…
11-04 22:24:39	Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	No	BUY	9	93¢	$9	0x76efff…
11-04 20:33:34	Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	1¢	$1	0x38fe1b…
11-04 20:33:04	Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	2¢	$1	0xe6698f…
11-04 20:32:54	Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	3¢	$2	0x264c8d…
11-04 19:31:10	Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0xe188f3…
11-04 19:30:54	Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$2	0x329b0f…
11-04 17:37:27	Will Tunisia recognize Israel by December 31?	Yes	SELL	29	3¢	$1	0x360f89…
11-04 17:37:18	Will Tunisia recognize Israel by December 31?	Yes	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0xbe505b…
11-04 17:18:09	Will the Seattle Seahawks have more than 12.5 wins during the 2026 NFL season?	Yes	SELL	12	7¢	$1	0x739ae5…
11-04 17:17:43	Will the Seattle Seahawks have more than 12.5 wins during the 2026 NFL season?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x147146…
11-04 16:15:01	Will Ron DeSantis announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	39	91¢	$35	0x20a6e9…
11-04 16:14:45	Will Ron DeSantis announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	BUY	39	91¢	$35	0xb54d5f…
11-04 16:14:19	Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	4¢	$2	0xef076d…
11-04 16:14:06	Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	4¢	$2	0x219a5c…
11-04 15:59:58	Next Israeli government formed by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	300	92¢	$277	0x8cc8c3…
11-04 15:59:49	Next Israeli government formed by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	86	93¢	$79	0x7694a1…
11-04 15:59:48	Next Israeli government formed by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	214	93¢	$199	0xd0e59f…
11-04 14:46:36	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0xd90b5a…
11-04 14:46:27	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0xbdf92c…
11-04 08:53:57	Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x514dc4…
11-04 08:53:30	Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0x7874cb…
11-04 08:53:24	Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	BUY	40	4¢	$2	0xd38d5c…
11-04 08:42:09	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0xf5dd2b…
11-04 08:42:00	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0xb68466…
11-04 08:36:55	Will Japan win the 2027 AFC Asian Cup?	No	SELL	20	89¢	$18	0x61bab9…
11-04 08:36:46	Will Japan win the 2027 AFC Asian Cup?	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0xd7223b…
11-04 00:47:25	Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?	No	SELL	100	96¢	$96	0x9adb34…
11-04 00:47:13	Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x541e1e…
11-04 00:43:19	Will the Democrats fail to sweep the House and Senate and the US government take a stake in OpenAI or Anthropic by the end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	11	2¢	$0	0x8c52d0…
11-04 00:42:52	Will the Democrats fail to sweep the House and Senate and the US government take a stake in OpenAI or Anthropic by the end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	29	2¢	$1	0xc2271b…
11-04 00:42:27	Will the Democrats fail to sweep the House and Senate and the US government take a stake in OpenAI or Anthropic by the end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	22	3¢	$1	0x1b1265…
11-04 00:42:00	Will the Democrats fail to sweep the House and Senate and the US government take a stake in OpenAI or Anthropic by the end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0x2c069a…
11-04 00:41:33	Will the Democrats fail to sweep the House and Senate and the US government take a stake in OpenAI or Anthropic by the end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	18	4¢	$1	0x181c53…
11-04 00:41:06	Will the Democrats fail to sweep the House and Senate and the US government take a stake in OpenAI or Anthropic by the end of 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xfd27a3…
11-04 00:04:58	Will AP call US House control by November 13, 11:59 PM?	No	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0xa91199…
11-04 00:04:45	Will AP call US House control by November 13, 11:59 PM?	No	BUY	0	6¢	$0	0x4a2882…
11-04 00:04:45	Will AP call US House control by November 13, 11:59 PM?	No	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x1e0d80…
11-03 23:56:45	Will AP call US House control by November 15, 11:59 PM?	No	SELL	40	3¢	$1	0xf67f34…
11-03 23:56:34	Will AP call US House control by November 15, 11:59 PM?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x8884d8…
11-03 23:56:34	Will AP call US House control by November 15, 11:59 PM?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x162f88…
11-03 23:25:00	Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	SELL	80	4¢	$3	0x01326d…
11-03 23:24:46	Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	5¢	$4	0xcf228a…
11-03 23:00:03	Will it snow in Salt Lake City, UT by November 30?	No	SELL	44	3¢	$1	0x3d2aa6…
11-03 22:59:42	Will it snow in Salt Lake City, UT by November 30?	No	BUY	44	3¢	$1	0xc7a557…
11-03 22:40:58	Will John Malkovich be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	60	88¢	$53	0xc0dc1c…
11-03 22:40:28	Will John Malkovich be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	60	90¢	$54	0x6f41ce…
11-03 21:40:39	Will Marathon win Best Multiplayer at the 2026 Game Awards?	Yes	SELL	43	7¢	$3	0xa7d212…
11-03 21:40:12	Will Marathon win Best Multiplayer at the 2026 Game Awards?	Yes	SELL	117	8¢	$9	0xf92ee7…
11-03 21:40:04	Will Marathon win Best Multiplayer at the 2026 Game Awards?	Yes	BUY	43	8¢	$3	0x9dfcc7…
11-03 21:40:00	Will Marathon win Best Multiplayer at the 2026 Game Awards?	Yes	BUY	77	8¢	$6	0x7962ff…
11-03 21:40:00	Will Marathon win Best Multiplayer at the 2026 Game Awards?	Yes	BUY	40	8¢	$3	0x4caaba…
11-03 21:14:57	Will Raphinha score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?	No	SELL	148	87¢	$129	0x841a5f…
11-03 21:14:45	Will Raphinha score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?	No	BUY	148	88¢	$130	0xf1435b…
11-03 19:51:45	Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x8bdb59…
11-03 19:23:37	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	100	88¢	$88	0xf71bde…
11-03 19:23:33	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	4	91¢	$3	0xcf2a10…
11-03 19:23:33	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	133	91¢	$121	0x870721…
11-03 19:23:31	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x48d16e…
11-03 19:23:30	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	18	91¢	$16	0xebe76d…
11-03 19:23:30	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	245	91¢	$223	0x9782cb…
11-03 18:57:16	Will Donte DiVincenzo win the 2026-27 NBA Sixth Man of the Year?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x4121a9…
11-03 18:57:07	Will Donte DiVincenzo win the 2026-27 NBA Sixth Man of the Year?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x488b17…
11-03 18:38:57	Will Alabama Crimson Tide win the 2027 CFP National Championship?	Yes	SELL	91	4¢	$4	0xc2db6b…
11-03 18:38:34	Will Alabama Crimson Tide win the 2027 CFP National Championship?	Yes	BUY	91	5¢	$4	0xea7bcd…
11-03 17:54:58	Will Como reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal?	No	SELL	20	88¢	$18	0x6c1940…
11-03 17:54:52	Will Como reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal?	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x612427…
11-03 15:33:58	Will Jeremy Strong be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	40	89¢	$36	0x5c63e3…
11-03 15:33:12	Will Jeremy Strong be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	40	91¢	$37	0xd1538d…
11-03 15:02:54	Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	40	94¢	$38	0x047c48…
11-03 15:02:43	Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	94¢	$38	0xa0a317…
11-03 13:53:37	Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by November 15?	No	SELL	18	88¢	$16	0x9d6aac…
11-03 13:53:10	Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by November 15?	No	SELL	2	89¢	$2	0x6f1896…
11-03 13:52:58	Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by November 15?	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x2d2599…
11-03 13:50:09	Will James Talarico be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	No	SELL	40	83¢	$33	0x8addcf…
11-03 13:49:54	Will James Talarico be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	No	BUY	40	88¢	$35	0xc7c569…
11-03 12:44:25	IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?	No	SELL	40	85¢	$34	0xaca085…
11-03 12:44:06	Will Xiaomi be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	87¢	$17	0x9cda47…
11-03 12:08:10	Will Drake be the top artist for 2026?	No	SELL	28	87¢	$24	0x7ccdd1…
11-03 12:07:43	Will Drake be the top artist for 2026?	No	SELL	14	87¢	$12	0x6815ec…
11-03 12:07:15	Will Drake be the top artist for 2026?	No	SELL	20	88¢	$18	0xd41435…
11-03 12:06:22	Will Drake be the top artist for 2026?	No	SELL	18	89¢	$16	0x7d858f…
11-03 12:06:18	Will Drake be the top artist for 2026?	No	BUY	62	89¢	$55	0x36d4df…
11-03 12:06:15	Will Drake be the top artist for 2026?	No	BUY	18	89¢	$16	0xdbfc4b…
11-03 11:17:10	Will AP call US House control by December 31, 11:59 PM?	No	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0xf2fddf…
11-03 11:16:42	Will AP call US House control by December 31, 11:59 PM?	No	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x66a4ef…
11-03 11:16:21	Will AP call US House control by December 31, 11:59 PM?	No	BUY	40	1¢	$0	0x6712d3…