Lumpy-Uncertainty — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

60.1%

Resolved

Trades

377

lifetime

Volume

$371

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 07-28 07:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

59% 0% $-1

Politics

25% — —

Crypto

9% — —

Sports

4% — —

Tech

2% — —

Pop-Culture

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

57 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in q1 2026	27	$27	24	24	+0	open	—	02-10 03:11
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	12	$12	6	6	-0	open	—	07-25 07:06
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	8	$8	4	4	+0	open	—	04-17 03:19
ebola pandemic in 2026	8	$8	4	4	+0	open	—	07-11 07:55
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	7	$7	4	3	+1	open	—	06-13 02:48
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	6	$6	3	3	-0	open	—	06-24 06:10
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	6	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	05-19 07:29
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	6	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	07-18 07:42
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season?	6	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	06-05 03:11
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	6	$6	7	7	+0	open	—	01-31 06:39
Trump out as President by April 30?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-30 03:41
will lifi launch a token by september 30 2026	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	07-11 07:55
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	07-20 08:42
will the us flu hospitalization rate per 100000 in week 12 be less than 75	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-01 08:15
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	07-02 06:47
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	07-23 09:05
will israel launch a ground operation in iran by june 30 2026	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-27 03:43
us announces withdrawal from al udeid air base by sep 30 20260626182408440	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	07-24 08:30
world cup most goals record broken 20260608192914170	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	07-16 02:57
next thai prime minister chosen by march 31	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-18 09:27
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 0 weeks?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-28 06:37
mu quarterly earnings nongaap eps 03 18 2026 8pt58	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-07 08:49
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-15 07:16
SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30?	4	$4	2	2	-0	open	—	05-30 02:02
another us government shutdown by february 14	4	$4	3	3	+0	open	—	02-10 03:10
will cxmt ipo by july 31 2026 20260629164309098	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	07-16 02:57
fda approves outlook therapeutics ons 5010 07 29 2026	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	07-08 06:13
2026 valero texas open winner hideki matsuyama win	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-03 08:43
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-24 06:59
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-02 09:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-28 07:27:19	israel military action against yemen by july 31 20260714001321877	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x2f3bcf…
07-28 07:16:24	israel military action against yemen by july 31 20260714001321877	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x216642…
07-27 09:33:39	will deepseek ipo by december 31 2026 20260714175933544	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xd3a91c…
07-27 09:32:40	pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by july 31 20260616200232527	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xd5075f…
07-27 09:14:06	pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by july 31 20260616200232527	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd59e73…
07-27 09:12:27	will deepseek ipo by december 31 2026 20260714175933544	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x428a31…
07-25 07:06:18	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xbe9f14…
07-25 06:49:34	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xba59bb…
07-24 08:30:49	us announces withdrawal from al udeid air base by sep 30 20260626182408440	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x809e0a…
07-24 08:30:18	Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x72fffd…
07-24 08:22:01	Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x6905cc…
07-24 08:21:00	us announces withdrawal from al udeid air base by sep 30 20260626182408440	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x9141ee…
07-23 09:06:10	will qatar recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x8bc8dc…
07-23 09:05:42	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xdbee05…
07-23 08:43:24	will qatar recognize israel by december 31	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xe3015d…
07-23 08:36:57	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x7f9f30…
07-22 10:05:36	will usd fall to 1pt4m iranian rials by july 31 20260626150325084	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x6e5988…
07-22 09:15:03	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x2c7b75…
07-22 09:10:43	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x02ef16…
07-22 09:07:58	will usd fall to 1pt4m iranian rials by july 31 20260626150325084	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x996d71…
07-21 07:24:55	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xc6b138…
07-21 07:15:42	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xe72318…
07-20 08:43:19	gpu rental prices h200 up or down in july 20260709173352389	Up	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0x346a18…
07-20 08:42:54	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x559eac…
07-20 08:34:10	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x6e3d78…
07-20 08:32:48	gpu rental prices h200 up or down in july 20260709173352389	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xbfbca5…
07-18 07:42:43	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x1b40fd…
07-18 07:28:57	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x90b2a9…
07-17 04:25:36	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xe7b9fa…
07-17 03:54:33	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x73b9f5…
07-16 02:57:34	will cxmt ipo by july 31 2026 20260629164309098	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x52818b…
07-16 02:57:11	world cup most goals record broken 20260608192914170	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x0dc12f…
07-16 02:49:04	world cup most goals record broken 20260608192914170	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x9f93e0…
07-16 02:48:13	will cxmt ipo by july 31 2026 20260629164309098	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xcd3970…
07-15 07:42:44	will the ethereum volatility index dip to 35 by july 31	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x59d965…
07-15 07:42:19	world cup goalkeeper to score 20260607161409835	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x14bbf7…
07-15 07:21:25	world cup goalkeeper to score 20260607161409835	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xbac283…
07-15 07:20:34	will the ethereum volatility index dip to 35 by july 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5f02a7…
07-14 04:40:02	will cxmt ipo by july 31 2026 20260629164309098	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xd46ed2…
07-14 04:39:32	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x73ea4f…
07-14 04:20:23	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xc8fec9…
07-14 04:19:11	will cxmt ipo by july 31 2026 20260629164309098	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x48ed95…
07-13 08:42:32	will the ethereum volatility index hit 100 by july 31	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xfe53b4…
07-13 08:42:08	world cup most goals record broken 20260608192914170	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x846d30…
07-13 08:32:37	will the ethereum volatility index hit 100 by july 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x41e6aa…
07-13 08:31:56	world cup most goals record broken 20260608192914170	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x1bdfce…
07-11 07:55:40	will lifi launch a token by september 30 2026	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x5201ff…
07-11 07:55:04	ebola pandemic in 2026	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x3c7da2…
07-11 07:43:13	ebola pandemic in 2026	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xe091ae…
07-11 07:42:10	will lifi launch a token by september 30 2026	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x9115f0…
07-10 06:57:43	us announces withdrawal from al udeid air base by sep 30 20260626182408440	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x22d621…
07-10 06:57:13	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x57cb29…
07-10 06:43:32	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xa00aea…
07-10 06:41:23	us announces withdrawal from al udeid air base by sep 30 20260626182408440	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x82c7c2…
07-09 03:02:50	will lifi launch a token by september 30 2026	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xe6d035…
07-09 03:02:10	ebola pandemic in 2026	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xbedcf1…
07-09 02:50:01	ebola pandemic in 2026	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x94332b…
07-09 02:49:16	will lifi launch a token by september 30 2026	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xe45953…
07-08 06:13:37	fda approves outlook therapeutics ons 5010 07 29 2026	Yes	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x9196d4…
07-08 06:12:49	ebola pandemic in 2026	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x91af4f…
07-08 04:52:35	ebola pandemic in 2026	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x1c6810…
07-08 04:51:20	fda approves outlook therapeutics ons 5010 07 29 2026	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x22b39f…
07-07 04:37:22	ebola pandemic in 2026	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xcb0009…
07-07 04:17:58	will cap reach 0pt08 before 2027	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xf2a285…
07-07 04:09:17	ebola pandemic in 2026	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x86403b…
07-06 07:17:58	fda approves outlook therapeutics ons 5010 07 29 2026	Yes	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0x282db1…
07-06 07:17:28	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x10ac4d…
07-06 07:03:07	fda approves outlook therapeutics ons 5010 07 29 2026	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x6372eb…
07-06 07:00:26	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x7c57a4…
07-04 03:59:34	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x530b0f…
07-04 03:50:56	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x5c0a19…
07-04 03:45:20	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xfafc7d…
07-04 03:44:13	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xaa163a…
07-03 07:49:40	will trump meet with volodymyr zelenskyy in july 2026 20260626153701906	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xcebbaf…
07-03 07:49:19	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xadf422…
07-03 07:43:38	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xaa4669…
07-03 07:43:07	will trump meet with volodymyr zelenskyy in july 2026 20260626153701906	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xbebd8f…
07-02 06:47:49	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x6cf33d…
07-02 06:42:20	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x5391c4…
07-01 03:22:07	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xb93b65…
07-01 03:21:25	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by july 31	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x670c77…
07-01 03:15:37	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x0eb248…
07-01 03:13:07	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by july 31	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x579cf7…
06-30 06:52:52	israeli forces enter choukine by june 30	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x9b7c9a…
06-30 06:52:10	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xb9ed4b…
06-30 06:47:19	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x9a2577…
06-30 06:45:07	israeli forces enter choukine by june 30	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x4e664d…
06-29 09:47:31	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xb19a56…
06-29 09:34:43	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x189592…
06-27 03:44:05	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x473af4…
06-27 03:43:46	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x5269a9…
06-27 03:38:07	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf799de…
06-27 03:36:14	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa18ece…
06-26 08:10:04	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xf50eb0…
06-26 08:09:20	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x9d356f…
06-26 07:57:38	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb0fa22…
06-26 07:56:44	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x09cba0…
06-24 06:11:05	will xrp reach 3 in june 2026	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xc5e2a5…
06-24 06:10:26	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x9d4bbe…
06-24 04:48:16	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x12e234…