Lumpy-Uncertainty — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

60.1%

Resolved

Trades

319

lifetime

Volume

$313

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 07-08 06:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

59% 0% $-1

Politics

25% — —

Crypto

10% — —

Sports

3% — —

Tech

3% — —

Pop-Culture

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

53 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in q1 2026	27	$27	24	24	+0	open	—	02-10 03:11
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	8	$8	4	4	+0	open	—	04-17 03:19
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	7	$7	4	3	+1	open	—	06-13 02:48
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	6	$6	3	3	-0	open	—	06-24 06:10
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	6	$6	3	3	-0	open	—	07-04 03:50
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	6	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	05-19 07:29
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season?	6	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	06-05 03:11
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	6	$6	7	7	+0	open	—	01-31 06:39
Trump out as President by April 30?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-30 03:41
will the us flu hospitalization rate per 100000 in week 12 be less than 75	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-01 08:15
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	07-02 06:47
ebola pandemic in 2026	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	07-08 06:12
will israel launch a ground operation in iran by june 30 2026	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-27 03:43
next thai prime minister chosen by march 31	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-18 09:27
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 0 weeks?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-28 06:37
mu quarterly earnings nongaap eps 03 18 2026 8pt58	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-07 08:49
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-15 07:16
SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30?	4	$4	2	2	-0	open	—	05-30 02:02
another us government shutdown by february 14	4	$4	3	3	+0	open	—	02-10 03:10
fda approves outlook therapeutics ons 5010 07 29 2026	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	07-08 06:13
2026 valero texas open winner hideki matsuyama win	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-03 08:43
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-24 06:59
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-02 09:52
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	2	$2	1	1	-0	open	—	06-16 03:10
Will Taylor Swift be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?	2	$2	1	1	+0	No	+$0	05-05 06:14
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-27 08:35
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	06-01 06:34
us strikes yemen by december 31	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	01-03 07:55
Trump out as President by June 30?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	06-27 03:44
will xrp reach 3 in june 2026	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	06-24 06:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-08 06:13:37	fda approves outlook therapeutics ons 5010 07 29 2026	Yes	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x9196d4…
07-08 06:12:49	ebola pandemic in 2026	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x91af4f…
07-08 04:52:35	ebola pandemic in 2026	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x1c6810…
07-08 04:51:20	fda approves outlook therapeutics ons 5010 07 29 2026	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x22b39f…
07-07 04:37:22	ebola pandemic in 2026	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xcb0009…
07-07 04:17:58	will cap reach 0pt08 before 2027	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xf2a285…
07-07 04:09:17	ebola pandemic in 2026	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x86403b…
07-06 07:17:58	fda approves outlook therapeutics ons 5010 07 29 2026	Yes	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0x282db1…
07-06 07:17:28	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x10ac4d…
07-06 07:03:07	fda approves outlook therapeutics ons 5010 07 29 2026	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x6372eb…
07-06 07:00:26	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x7c57a4…
07-04 03:59:34	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x530b0f…
07-04 03:50:56	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x5c0a19…
07-04 03:45:20	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xfafc7d…
07-04 03:44:13	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xaa163a…
07-03 07:49:40	will trump meet with volodymyr zelenskyy in july 2026 20260626153701906	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xcebbaf…
07-03 07:49:19	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xadf422…
07-03 07:43:38	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xaa4669…
07-03 07:43:07	will trump meet with volodymyr zelenskyy in july 2026 20260626153701906	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xbebd8f…
07-02 06:47:49	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x6cf33d…
07-02 06:42:20	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x5391c4…
07-01 03:22:07	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xb93b65…
07-01 03:21:25	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by july 31	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x670c77…
07-01 03:15:37	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x0eb248…
07-01 03:13:07	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by july 31	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x579cf7…
06-30 06:52:52	israeli forces enter choukine by june 30	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x9b7c9a…
06-30 06:52:10	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xb9ed4b…
06-30 06:47:19	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x9a2577…
06-30 06:45:07	israeli forces enter choukine by june 30	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x4e664d…
06-29 09:47:31	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xb19a56…
06-29 09:34:43	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x189592…
06-27 03:44:05	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x473af4…
06-27 03:43:46	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x5269a9…
06-27 03:38:07	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf799de…
06-27 03:36:14	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa18ece…
06-26 08:10:04	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xf50eb0…
06-26 08:09:20	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x9d356f…
06-26 07:57:38	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb0fa22…
06-26 07:56:44	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x09cba0…
06-24 06:11:05	will xrp reach 3 in june 2026	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xc5e2a5…
06-24 06:10:26	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x9d4bbe…
06-24 04:48:16	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x12e234…
06-24 04:47:05	will xrp reach 3 in june 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x25e110…
06-23 06:08:05	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xfe30f4…
06-23 04:58:55	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb57a27…
06-22 02:57:35	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x283721…
06-22 02:50:22	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xe4b554…
06-21 06:56:07	will xrp reach 2pt8 in june 2026	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x792f17…
06-21 06:55:04	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x5a9e40…
06-21 06:16:37	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x4108ec…
06-21 04:56:10	will xrp reach 2pt8 in june 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xca1dde…
06-18 07:11:20	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by june 30	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x4c0623…
06-18 07:10:17	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x422c48…
06-18 07:03:17	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x8547ed…
06-18 06:59:49	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by june 30	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xab9ff7…
06-17 04:38:32	will reya launch a token by december 31 2027	Yes	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0xee9202…
06-17 04:37:58	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x38391f…
06-17 04:31:50	will reya launch a token by december 31 2027	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xf8e0d8…
06-17 04:30:14	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x2c1b5b…
06-16 03:10:52	will symbiotic launch a token by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xd0bb7e…
06-16 03:10:30	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x0d0a0f…
06-16 02:51:39	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x08d589…
06-16 02:47:09	will symbiotic launch a token by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x0c174c…
06-15 07:16:09	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x579cef…
06-15 06:36:34	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x6323f1…
06-13 02:48:24	Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x874f13…
06-13 02:47:37	will antonio gracias be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212487	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xb97353…
06-12 06:53:01	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0xa9fb4d…
06-12 06:52:10	will iran close its airspace by june 11 20260609184136049	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x41649c…
06-12 06:40:40	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x27faef…
06-12 06:39:40	will iran close its airspace by june 11 20260609184136049	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x1a4492…
06-11 04:48:15	will elon musk be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212474	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x971794…
06-11 04:46:25	Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xf41417…
06-11 04:35:24	Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x7fb9a0…
06-11 04:34:43	will elon musk be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212474	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xb41400…
06-10 06:13:22	will iran close its airspace by june 10 20260609184136048	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0xf33223…
06-10 06:12:43	Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x5974fc…
06-10 04:44:58	will iran close its airspace by june 10 20260609184136048	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xc35f26…
06-10 04:42:51	Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xbc5bcc…
06-10 04:35:46	Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x3f7680…
06-10 04:33:00	Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x51fbfa…
06-09 06:31:19	us evacuates beirut embassy by june 30	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x7a0f75…
06-09 06:28:25	us evacuates beirut embassy by june 30	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x9e7b51…
06-08 06:15:51	Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x34fdcf…
06-08 04:55:57	Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa2b738…
06-06 03:36:21	jd vance out as vp by december 31	No	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x114617…
06-06 03:35:31	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x5be613…
06-06 03:30:09	jd vance out as vp by december 31	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xb6798f…
06-06 03:29:16	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x9cfd17…
06-05 03:11:27	Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x8c1da0…
06-05 03:02:52	Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x96746e…
06-04 07:44:30	gmgn fdv above 4b one day after launch	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x2cf0a9…
06-04 07:42:57	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x8f4d35…
06-04 07:33:54	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x92de4f…
06-04 07:31:45	gmgn fdv above 4b one day after launch	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x42d74b…
06-03 07:20:05	Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x2df762…
06-03 07:19:46	1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xeff525…
06-03 06:58:54	1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xf47b39…
06-03 06:57:46	Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x7c8dce…
06-02 03:38:31	Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x93a399…