Offbeat-Consequence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

60.8%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$25

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$15

5 positions

First seen

2026-05-06

last 05-16 23:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

43% — —

Other

33% 0% $-2

Sports

24% 100% +$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	-6	$-5	80¢	$-5	+$0	05-06 18:07
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+17	$4	24¢	$4	$-0	05-16 23:38
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	-7	$-3	42¢	$-3	$-0	05-06 18:06
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	No	+3	$2	100¢	$3	+$1	05-16 22:42
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	+2	$1	64¢	$1	+$0	05-16 21:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-16 23:38:27	Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x9bd697…
05-16 23:37:21	Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0xb2fa0b…
05-16 22:51:42	Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	52¢	$4	0x9dceb2…
05-16 22:42:59	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x8fad96…
05-16 21:21:59	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xa6b09f…
05-13 17:22:46	Will FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x3c46ce…
05-06 19:55:44	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x148455…
05-06 18:07:03	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	6	82¢	$5	0x5964aa…
05-06 18:06:20	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	7	41¢	$3	0x3e2bfa…
05-06 18:06:14	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	10	31¢	$3	0xb534c7…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Monstrous-Dew 0x5b63…11a4	6	$2.36K	48	05-16 23:58
Agitated-Bricklaying 0x84cf…2f63	5	$24.9K	110	05-16 13:29
Glass-Diet 0xd49b…bdf9	5	$19.4K	286	05-16 22:59
Honest-Similarity 0xde04…fa37	5	$7.96K	54	05-16 22:58
(anonymous) 0x4247…91c4	5	$1.06K	32	05-16 23:10
Wise-Keyboard 0x27ab…e521	4	$15.3K	398	05-15 23:50
Useless-Watcher 0xb2ee…9bdc	4	$11.8K	37	05-16 22:57
Deserted-Bitter 0x3690…e16f	4	$9.12K	252	05-16 22:59

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	1	$5	0	6	-6	open	—	05-06 18:07
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	1	$4	0	8	-8	open	—	05-16 22:51
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	2	$4	17	0	+17	open	—	05-16 23:38
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	1	$3	0	10	-10	No	+$3	05-06 18:06
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	1	$3	0	7	-7	open	—	05-06 18:06
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	1	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	05-16 22:42
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?	1	$2	7	0	+7	No	$-2	05-06 19:55
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw?	1	$1	4	0	+4	open	—	05-13 17:22
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	1	$1	2	0	+2	open	—	05-16 21:21