Clear-Cut-Carnival — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

61.6%

Resolved

757

Trades

1,748

lifetime

Volume

$5.05K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$38

6 positions

First seen

2026-02-08

last 11-04 10:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 87 days

Categories

Other

53% 68% +$151

Crypto

30% 41% -$66

Politics

9% 30% +$21

Sports

6% 30% -$108

Tech

1% 20% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

17 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+38	$20	63¢	$24	+$4	09-25 09:18
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+38	$5	18¢	$7	+$2	09-14 13:33
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+38	$5	12¢	$5	$0	10-10 09:23
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	+17	$5	11¢	$2	-$3	10-02 12:06
Weed rescheduled by December 31?	Yes	-4	-$1	9¢	$-0	+$0	07-15 14:53
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	Yes	+24	$5	1¢	$0	-$5	10-02 12:02

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 20?	3	$202	200	200	+0	Yes	+$195	07-20 13:36
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-15 14:00 UTC	18	$104	142	138	+5	Up	+$71	04-15 14:15
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	2	$100	60	60	+0	Yes	+$20	11-04 09:58
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-15 13:15 UTC	11	$88	72	68	+4	Up	+$23	04-15 13:26
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	22	$79	42	42	-0	No	+$3	04-26 14:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 18:30 UTC	5	$66	171	45	+126	Down	-$4	03-04 18:33
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$49	43	43	+0	Yes	+$29	10-25 23:20
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-15 10:10 UTC	10	$49	61	35	+26	Down	+$9	04-15 10:15
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 17?	4	$43	39	39	+0	Yes	+$34	07-17 10:13
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	2	$42	34	34	+0	Yes	+$22	06-30 17:29
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	2	$39	27	27	+0	No	+$9	07-11 15:36
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	10	$37	26	26	+0	No	+$6	05-05 20:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 18:35 UTC	2	$37	42	42	+0	Up	+$18	03-04 18:39
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-15 13:15 UTC	8	$33	37	36	+1	Down	-$2	04-15 13:19
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland?	2	$33	105	105	+0	No	-$7	06-13 20:56
bitcoin up or down april 15 2026 8am et	11	$31	33	13	+20	Up	-$7	04-15 12:40
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-15 10:15 UTC	17	$31	41	7	+34	Down	-$16	04-15 10:29
Mexico leading at halftime?	2	$31	21	21	+0	Yes	+$11	06-11 19:53
fifwc bra mar 2026 06 13 btts	2	$31	21	21	+0	Yes	+$11	06-13 22:51
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-15 13:30 UTC	17	$30	71	62	+8	Down	+$6	04-15 13:39
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 89°F or below on July 16?	9	$29	57	33	+24	No	-$5	07-16 18:40
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-15 13:30 UTC	17	$28	89	83	+6	Down	+$6	04-15 13:33
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	2	$28	26	26	+0	Yes	+$8	05-12 06:31
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	2	$28	25	25	+0	No	+$20	06-19 07:35
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-15 10:20 UTC	5	$28	19	18	+1	Down	+$9	04-15 10:25
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-15 11:45 UTC	10	$28	24	13	+12	Up	-$2	04-15 11:57
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-15 10:45 UTC	5	$27	16	16	+0	Down	+$4	04-15 11:01
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on July 17?	10	$27	141	118	+23	No	+$9	07-17 10:44
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	2	$26	19	19	+0	No	+$6	06-23 14:55
will bitcoin reach 66k july 13 19 2026	5	$25	46	41	+5	No	+$6	07-15 18:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 10:03:04	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-11-04?	Yes	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0xfede32…
11-04 10:02:40	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-11-04?	Yes	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x6989dd…
11-04 10:01:12	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	90¢	$5	0xac6063…
11-04 10:00:03	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	92¢	$4	0xb1e984…
11-04 09:59:58	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x6ff7c8…
11-04 09:59:52	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	88¢	$7	0x550fad…
11-04 09:59:45	Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	93¢	$7	0xd5adb1…
11-04 09:58:36	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	48	4¢	$2	0x34f49f…
11-04 09:58:21	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	60	100¢	$60	0xa545e2…
11-04 09:57:49	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0xf1201d…
10-30 18:08:04	Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	172	3¢	$4	0xa44cf2…
10-30 18:07:31	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	44	2¢	$1	0x57ce4b…
10-28 16:45:10	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	60	67¢	$40	0xdbd35e…
10-26 00:45:09	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x374126…
10-25 23:20:30	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	43	89¢	$39	0xbe9dcb…
10-25 22:35:20	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x6f1ec8…
10-25 19:39:45	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0xd6ca27…
10-21 17:14:38	Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,250	0¢	$5	0x244791…
10-10 09:23:49	Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0xf343fd…
10-02 12:07:03	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	44	11¢	$5	0x79095b…
10-02 12:06:51	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x0f4ef9…
10-02 12:03:57	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0xa7d313…
10-02 12:02:11	Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x91b5f5…
09-25 09:18:47	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0xe1ac96…
09-25 09:18:11	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	30	67¢	$20	0xfa118f…
09-19 15:06:18	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	7¢	$1	0xcb9d83…
09-19 15:05:33	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	12¢	$2	0x4395bf…
09-19 15:05:18	NBA: LeBron James and Bronny James Jr. to Play Together in 2026-27?	Yes	SELL	67	2¢	$2	0x448c5a…
09-19 15:05:14	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	18¢	$1	0xe44f67…
09-19 15:04:14	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	4¢	$1	0xc670c5…
09-18 17:00:27	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Baltimore Orioles	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0xda1d33…
09-16 18:53:46	Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-09-17?	Yes	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x6ed2c1…
09-16 17:16:57	Lions vs. Bills	Lions	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x05583a…
09-15 18:49:55	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-16?	Yes	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x32df1a…
09-15 14:47:43	sam altman signs the pacing the frontier statement by september 30	Yes	BUY	43	12¢	$5	0x0c6e16…
09-15 14:46:21	Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-09-15?	Yes	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x31a242…
09-14 18:18:27	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-09-15?	Yes	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x84fc4b…
09-14 13:33:39	Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0xefb4b6…
09-14 13:30:46	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x6c912b…
09-14 13:30:24	Broncos vs. Chiefs	Chiefs	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x744ccd…
09-13 21:57:01	Spread: Chargers (-6.5)	Chargers	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0xb40c68…
09-10 22:53:18	Spread: Rams (-3.5)	49ers	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xdf980c…
08-28 19:53:10	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-08-28?	Yes	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x73f371…
07-24 03:24:52	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 79°F or below on July 25?	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x4c23b5…
07-24 03:19:45	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 25?	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x2cebbe…
07-24 03:12:10	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on July 25?	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x75bd51…
07-24 02:00:06	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0xc58c4f…
07-24 01:27:48	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x13e755…
07-23 19:59:39	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 24?	Yes	SELL	5	32¢	$2	0x69e3a3…
07-23 19:59:13	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 24?	Yes	SELL	6	35¢	$2	0xb5f4ad…
07-23 19:42:40	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 23?	No	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0xa5719b…
07-23 19:42:37	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 24?	Yes	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0x2888ab…
07-23 19:09:34	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 24?	Yes	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0xac4fc1…
07-23 19:08:28	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 24?	Yes	BUY	17	11¢	$2	0xa43dc2…
07-23 19:07:55	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 24?	Yes	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0xf886f3…
07-23 19:01:43	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 24?	Yes	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x1b81fb…
07-23 18:58:00	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 24?	Yes	SELL	6	29¢	$2	0xc57d49…
07-23 18:52:49	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 23?	No	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xfcb4c1…
07-23 18:52:22	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 23?	No	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0xdca903…
07-23 18:29:03	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 23?	Yes	BUY	26	3¢	$1	0x1c6ffe…
07-23 18:28:51	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 23?	Yes	BUY	34	3¢	$1	0x2d483d…
07-23 18:13:24	will bitcoin reach 80000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0xcdd893…
07-23 18:12:28	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 23?	Yes	BUY	63	3¢	$2	0x4acf09…
07-23 18:12:19	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 23?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x0516fd…
07-23 16:55:43	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 24?	Yes	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x429b58…
07-23 16:16:19	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xb925ad…
07-23 16:07:33	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 23?	Yes	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x2af995…
07-23 16:07:30	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 23?	Yes	BUY	1	34¢	$0	0x6d36fc…
07-23 16:07:28	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 23?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xb276b4…
07-23 16:07:06	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 23?	Yes	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0xadb112…
07-23 14:02:15	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on July 23?	Yes	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0x415187…
07-23 14:01:51	Will no one dissent the July Fed decision?	Yes	BUY	7	24¢	$2	0x8789e1…
07-23 10:28:18	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on July 23?	Yes	SELL	8	21¢	$2	0xd825a6…
07-23 01:45:09	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 23?	Yes	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0x5048bb…
07-23 00:05:54	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	7	27¢	$2	0xafc7c0…
07-22 23:55:15	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	11	27¢	$3	0xbfac59…
07-22 22:25:01	mlb pit nyy 2026 07 21	Pittsburgh Pirates	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xb4ab4d…
07-22 22:24:46	mlb pit nyy 2026 07 21	Pittsburgh Pirates	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x51e7d5…
07-22 21:34:55	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x3eca38…
07-22 21:21:10	mlb lad phi 2026 07 22	Philadelphia Phillies	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xccf930…
07-22 21:20:54	mlb lad phi 2026 07 22	Philadelphia Phillies	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x60bd47…
07-22 21:02:04	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 23?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x0c278e…
07-22 19:53:09	mlb pit nyy 2026 07 21	New York Yankees	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x8a0925…
07-22 17:02:48	mlb pit nyy 2026 07 22	Pittsburgh Pirates	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0xfdfe4b…
07-22 16:22:09	mlb sf kc 2026 07 22 total 8pt5	Under	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x1d66ce…
07-22 16:16:15	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on July 23?	No	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0xeae79f…
07-22 16:16:07	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on July 23?	Yes	BUY	8	21¢	$2	0xc18d26…
07-22 16:10:43	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 23?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x278bd6…
07-22 13:22:01	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0xa6161e…
07-22 12:37:07	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 22?	Yes	BUY	6	7¢	$0	0xab8d78…
07-22 12:37:01	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 22?	Yes	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0x91a54e…
07-22 12:37:00	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 22?	Yes	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x52340e…
07-22 12:27:10	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 22?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x781cdd…
07-22 12:27:10	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 22?	Yes	BUY	19	6¢	$1	0x44f9c8…
07-22 10:30:00	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	8	27¢	$2	0x8029e3…
07-22 07:08:15	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 23?	No	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x59b491…
07-22 06:57:10	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 23?	Yes	SELL	7	20¢	$1	0x6de1fb…
07-22 06:57:01	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 23?	Yes	SELL	1	21¢	$0	0x821479…
07-22 06:44:01	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 22?	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xfcc8bb…
07-22 06:24:30	Will no one dissent the July Fed decision?	Yes	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x0540bf…