Wrong-Heater — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$87

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

32.2%

Resolved

Trades

159

lifetime

Volume

$17.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$107

Open exposure

$121

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 06-30 02:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

57% — —

Other

39% 40% $-87

Sports

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US strike on Colombia by December 31?	No		+127	$100	80¢	$101	+$1	06-30 02:24
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30?	No		+20	$17	99¢	$20	+$3	05-29 17:37

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28	1	$1000	1,036	0	+1,036	open	—	02-05 21:13
will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026	1	$1000	1,047	0	+1,047	open	—	01-07 18:42
israel strikes iran by january 9 2026	2	$700	734	0	+734	open	—	01-07 18:32
israel x syria security agreement by march 31	4	$631	699	0	+699	open	—	03-12 02:30
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	2	$401	255	255	+0	open	—	01-16 20:00
Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26?	6	$373	419	0	+419	open	—	04-16 15:46
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	4	$352	470	0	+470	open	—	02-02 01:11
will israel launch a major ground offensive in gaza by march 31	3	$350	411	0	+411	open	—	03-03 21:00
zelenskyy out as ukraine president by march 31 2026	1	$300	316	0	+316	open	—	01-05 04:00
will israel strike iraq by january 31	2	$300	333	0	+333	open	—	01-08 13:58
will iran strike turkey in march	3	$300	338	0	+338	open	—	03-20 14:29
Will Trump talk to Masoud Pezeshkian in April?	1	$300	322	0	+322	open	—	04-02 19:36
nuclear weapon detonation by march 31	1	$300	316	0	+316	open	—	03-01 20:27
nba sas min 2026 01 11	1	$299	322	0	+322	open	—	01-12 01:45
cdr bet atm 2026 02 05 atm	1	$285	290	0	+290	open	—	02-05 21:14
will trump talk to nicols maduro in january	1	$250	266	0	+266	open	—	01-11 00:51
houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	3	$229	274	0	+274	open	—	03-23 14:56
us strike on somalia by january 31	2	$202	124	124	+0	open	—	01-08 14:37
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 7	1	$200	215	0	+215	open	—	03-02 04:23
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	1	$200	213	0	+213	open	—	04-06 13:39
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	3	$200	236	0	+236	open	—	04-07 13:49
will brazil join the board of peace	2	$200	222	0	+222	open	—	02-09 00:44
US announces shutdown of Gaza military center by May 15?	1	$200	211	0	+211	open	—	05-02 05:09
will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	1	$200	209	0	+209	open	—	06-25 15:30
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	3	$192	224	150	+74	Yes	$-94	04-10 18:04
Will Israel strike 2 countries in April 2026?	2	$166	116	116	+0	open	—	04-10 18:00
houthi strike on israel by march 15 2026	3	$156	210	0	+210	open	—	03-12 02:35
will crude oil cl hit high 140 by end of march 934 621	2	$151	81	81	+0	open	—	03-23 14:54
epl bur mac 2026 04 22 mac	1	$150	160	0	+160	open	—	04-22 19:33
israeli parliament dissolved by march 31 932	1	$150	231	0	+231	open	—	01-05 03:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 02:29:46	israel withdraws from lebanon by september 30 2026	No	BUY	114	88¢	$100	0xade45e…
06-30 02:24:58	US strike on Colombia by December 31?	No	BUY	127	79¢	$100	0x61366c…
06-25 15:30:11	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	No	BUY	209	96¢	$200	0x69ba8d…
05-29 17:37:40	Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30?	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x043e39…
05-19 17:09:20	AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	91	77¢	$70	0x8629f9…
05-15 03:52:33	Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	86	81¢	$70	0x576aee…
05-14 04:28:12	Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	59	51¢	$30	0xe488e8…
05-14 04:27:25	Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	56	90¢	$50	0x7118ae…
05-13 20:12:19	Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	61	82¢	$50	0x649eb2…
05-12 17:31:58	CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	111	45¢	$50	0x755ae6…
05-10 19:20:45	FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	52	65¢	$34	0x8585ad…
05-08 16:37:51	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic	Novak Djokovic	BUY	45	89¢	$40	0xbd2480…
05-08 02:11:16	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0x5e6d67…
05-06 15:20:03	Will Richarlison be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	No	BUY	66	76¢	$50	0xbedc6e…
05-04 02:48:04	FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	179	56¢	$100	0x6d9fb5…
05-02 17:59:26	Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0x0a18dd…
05-02 05:43:26	Will Richarlison be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	No	BUY	128	78¢	$100	0xaaffe8…
05-02 05:25:24	SE Palmeiras vs. Santos FC: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0xed2eb5…
05-02 05:14:40	Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31?	No	BUY	119	84¢	$100	0x60e04d…
05-02 05:14:12	Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	114	88¢	$100	0x42407b…
05-02 05:09:50	US announces shutdown of Gaza military center by May 15?	No	BUY	211	95¢	$200	0xeb8931…
04-29 18:47:42	Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	37	78¢	$29	0xb1344d…
04-29 02:31:02	CS Cristal vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	29	85¢	$25	0xd959e4…
04-28 01:42:00	Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-04-28?	Yes	BUY	125	40¢	$50	0x7857db…
04-28 01:33:44	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	Yes	BUY	64	78¢	$50	0x19652a…
04-27 14:29:02	Madrid Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer	Daniil Medvedev	BUY	66	91¢	$60	0xe6a9c1…
04-27 13:53:08	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	85¢	$50	0x1a0015…
04-26 22:06:02	Red Bull Bragantino vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	22	78¢	$17	0xf1651f…
04-25 18:58:54	Madrid Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Fabian Marozsan	Daniil Medvedev	BUY	17	66¢	$11	0x233400…
04-25 18:55:48	Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	No	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0x273cc5…
04-23 17:13:00	brco pal jac 2026 04 23 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	34	69¢	$23	0xb5eb46…
04-23 17:10:02	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	107	75¢	$80	0x9c19c2…
04-23 17:00:38	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	No	BUY	124	80¢	$100	0x99d02e…
04-23 16:55:30	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x4e89b7…
04-22 20:16:10	Will Trump say "Tough Cookie" this week? (April 20 - 26)	No	BUY	89	90¢	$80	0xbfbee4…
04-22 19:33:44	epl bur mac 2026 04 22 mac	Yes	BUY	160	94¢	$150	0xf89981…
04-20 14:59:24	brco pay vas 2026 04 21 vas	Yes	BUY	23	60¢	$14	0x573954…
04-19 22:54:22	brco pay vas 2026 04 21 vas	Yes	BUY	33	63¢	$21	0x08540c…
04-19 22:54:00	brco pal jac 2026 04 23 pal	Yes	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0xcabfb8…
04-16 16:37:04	lib pal cri 2026 04 16 pal	Yes	BUY	85	82¢	$70	0xb15b28…
04-16 15:46:46	Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26?	Yes	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0x8a51e2…
04-15 14:14:08	bra pal cap 2026 04 19 pal	Yes	BUY	14	64¢	$9	0x6748b1…
04-13 12:25:09	sud vas aud 2026 04 14 vas	Yes	BUY	70	72¢	$50	0x6cf316…
04-10 18:11:49	will trump say delcy or rodriguez this week april 12	No	BUY	59	85¢	$50	0x7edc8f…
04-10 18:04:01	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	74	68¢	$50	0xae7e5e…
04-10 18:01:49	Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26?	Yes	BUY	17	88¢	$15	0x9e97f6…
04-10 18:00:25	Will Israel strike 2 countries in April 2026?	No	SELL	116	57¢	$66	0x6e82f6…
04-10 17:58:35	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	SELL	150	33¢	$49	0x54d8d7…
04-09 14:05:13	Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26?	Yes	BUY	65	89¢	$58	0xbf743b…
04-08 16:35:07	bra cre vas 2026 04 11 vas	Yes	BUY	116	43¢	$50	0x3314db…
04-07 14:17:27	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	BUY	150	62¢	$93	0x1791a2…
04-07 14:11:27	US x Cuba economic deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0x5c6e49…
04-07 13:49:37	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	No	BUY	56	90¢	$50	0x3f99bb…
04-06 17:28:47	Will Trump name "Bolsonaro" in April?	No	BUY	84	89¢	$75	0x6a270e…
04-06 15:50:15	will trump say fuck or fucking during monday news conference	No	BUY	87	92¢	$80	0x93b11b…
04-06 14:37:39	israel military action against fordow nuclear facility by april 15	No	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0xa42c46…
04-06 13:48:41	Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26?	Yes	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0xb64d4d…
04-06 13:46:23	Will Trump talk to Maria Corina Machado in April?	No	BUY	98	71¢	$70	0x699b26…
04-06 13:43:55	will trump say womens sport during the white house easter egg roll	No	BUY	57	88¢	$50	0x5bb1e3…
04-06 13:39:05	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	No	BUY	213	94¢	$200	0xdac351…
04-05 22:27:57	us forces seize another oil tanker by april 15	No	BUY	58	86¢	$50	0xef27c6…
04-05 22:23:01	will trump say hamas or hezbollah this week april 5	No	BUY	55	91¢	$50	0x954ad0…
04-03 02:21:35	bra pal gre 2026 04 02 pal	Yes	BUY	77	98¢	$76	0x5fcae9…
04-02 22:59:05	Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in April 2026?	No	BUY	169	88¢	$150	0x89d6de…
04-02 22:46:33	bra cha cam 2026 04 02 cam	Yes	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xddb901…
04-02 22:44:47	Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0x3c820e…
04-02 19:36:19	Will Trump talk to Masoud Pezeshkian in April?	No	BUY	322	93¢	$300	0x64429a…
04-02 19:35:03	Will the DHS shutdown end between April 5-8, 2026?	No	BUY	58	87¢	$50	0x58590b…
04-02 19:33:39	will trump say hamas or hezbollah this week april 5	No	BUY	56	89¢	$50	0x7a2d7e…
04-02 19:22:47	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	No	BUY	62	80¢	$50	0xe46e30…
04-02 04:46:03	houthi strike on israel by april 15 2026	No	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0x385e78…
04-02 04:38:01	Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26?	Yes	BUY	92	87¢	$80	0xb2c4fa…
04-02 03:49:37	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	No	BUY	118	85¢	$100	0x3616cb…
04-01 18:51:35	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0xb558e3…
04-01 17:58:03	us forces seize another oil tanker by april 15	No	BUY	92	76¢	$70	0xd3f436…
04-01 17:30:43	Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26?	Yes	BUY	114	88¢	$100	0x57090c…
04-01 17:15:49	Will Israel strike 2 countries in April 2026?	No	BUY	116	86¢	$100	0x12d973…
04-01 16:52:05	will trump say mission accomplished during address to the nation	No	BUY	86	81¢	$70	0x6d5d98…
03-23 14:56:25	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	No	BUY	86	92¢	$79	0x6c0585…
03-23 14:54:51	will crude oil cl hit high 140 by end of march 934 621	No	SELL	81	98¢	$79	0xc98e7b…
03-21 03:24:05	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	93	76¢	$71	0x6151c4…
03-20 14:32:41	will trump say too big to rig this week march 22	No	BUY	56	90¢	$50	0x11429d…
03-20 14:29:05	will iran strike turkey in march	No	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0x6f059a…
03-20 14:13:23	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	No	BUY	62	80¢	$50	0x7331df…
03-20 14:09:55	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	No	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0x8a1768…
03-12 02:35:33	houthi strike on israel by march 15 2026	No	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0x076c12…
03-12 02:30:47	israel x syria security agreement by march 31	No	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0xf1686d…
03-11 18:22:57	US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	Yes	BUY	149	67¢	$100	0xb471c9…
03-11 17:51:59	houthi strike on israel by march 15 2026	No	BUY	58	69¢	$40	0x9fa072…
03-09 20:24:47	houthi strike on israel by march 15 2026	No	BUY	132	76¢	$100	0xf6ae51…
03-09 19:51:57	will iran strike turkey in march	No	BUY	119	84¢	$100	0x6d0c77…
03-06 19:20:59	will crude oil cl hit high 140 by end of march 934 621	No	BUY	81	88¢	$71	0x276251…
03-03 21:00:17	will israel launch a major ground offensive in gaza by march 31	No	BUY	118	84¢	$100	0x3b8728…
03-03 20:59:43	israel x syria security agreement by march 31	No	BUY	317	95¢	$300	0xbc5cfd…
03-03 20:47:25	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	No	BUY	80	87¢	$70	0xaf86b0…
03-03 15:32:05	will the bank of brazil decrease the selic rate after march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	56	89¢	$50	0x1d6fe3…
03-02 04:31:49	will iran strike turkey in march	No	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0xb93cc0…
03-02 04:26:21	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 7th	No	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0x755d67…
03-02 04:23:47	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 7	No	BUY	215	93¢	$200	0x1f6c23…
03-01 20:27:41	nuclear weapon detonation by march 31	No	BUY	316	95¢	$300	0x5b7365…