Alarming-Thesis — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$128

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

58.3%

Resolved

808

Trades

2,015

lifetime

Volume

$2.85K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-18

last 05-15 20:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 41 days

Categories

Crypto

49% 48% -$45

Sports

30% 42% -$51

Other

21% 40% -$31

Politics

1% 33% -$1

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-15).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
atp krumich sperle 2026 03 17	13	$46	24	24	+0	Martin Krumich	+$3	03-17 12:28
ufc and2 jos55 2026 03 14	15	$37	29	29	+0	Jose Miguel Delgado	-$9	03-15 01:53
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 10?	2	$23	28	0	+28	No	-$23	05-10 16:02
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-20 12:55 UTC	2	$20	10	10	+0	Up	+$0	02-20 13:00
bitcoin up or down march 10 8pm et	3	$20	3	17	-15	Up	$0	03-11 01:13
nba orl atl 2026 03 16	4	$19	12	12	+0	Hawks	+$5	03-17 00:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 01:50 UTC	7	$18	21	10	+11	Up	-$3	03-11 01:51
nba phx min 2026 03 17 spread home 3pt5	9	$17	16	16	+0	Timberwolves	+$1	03-18 02:31
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 06:35 UTC	8	$16	13	13	+0	Up	+$2	03-19 06:39
ucl lev ars 2026 03 11 ars	12	$16	18	18	+0	No	+$0	03-11 19:04
cbb ncst tx 2026 03 17	6	$16	10	10	+0	Texas Longhorns	+$4	03-18 04:09
nba por bkn 2026 03 16 total 221pt5	3	$15	10	10	+0	Under	+$5	03-17 01:45
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 7?	2	$15	10	10	+0	Yes	+$2	05-08 00:49
nba sas sac 2026 03 17 total 234pt5	9	$15	18	18	+0	Over	-$3	03-18 04:10
bra vit cam 2026 03 14 total 2pt5	8	$15	22	22	+0	Under	-$3	03-14 21:46
nba min lac 2026 03 11	9	$15	18	18	+0	Clippers	-$1	03-12 03:37
arg cas rac 2026 03 10 total 2pt5	3	$14	10	10	+0	Under	+$1	03-11 01:27
nba cha por 2026 03 10	8	$14	16	16	+0	Hornets	-$3	03-11 04:16
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-03 02:15 UTC	2	$12	6	6	+0	Down	+$1	03-03 02:19
nba det tor 2026 03 15	6	$12	10	10	+0	Raptors	+$2	03-15 22:42
nba okc bos 2026 03 25 spread away 4pt5	7	$11	12	12	+0	Celtics	-$1	03-26 00:25
nhl pit car 2026 03 10	4	$11	10	10	+0	Hurricanes	+$0	03-11 01:51
nhl tor min 2026 03 15	3	$11	8	8	+0	Maple Leafs	+$6	03-16 02:08
nba orl atl 2026 03 16 spread home 1pt5	4	$11	7	7	+0	Hawks	+$3	03-17 01:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-03 01:55 UTC	2	$10	6	5	+0	Down	+$0	03-03 01:59
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 14?	2	$10	6	6	+0	Yes	+$0	05-14 14:50
ucl rma1 mnc1 2026 03 11 rma1	9	$10	28	26	+2	Yes	+$0	03-11 21:17
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 22:45 UTC	8	$10	15	15	+0	Up	+$0	03-19 22:48
nba cha por 2026 03 10 spread away 3pt5	4	$10	10	10	+0	Trail Blazers	$0	03-11 01:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 22:25 UTC	10	$10	13	12	+0	Down	$0	03-19 22:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-15 20:42:04	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 15?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x931fd5…
05-15 20:29:47	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 15?	No	BUY	6	44¢	$3	0xeb9f2c…
05-15 19:50:46	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 15?	Yes	SELL	24	1¢	$0	0xd11621…
05-15 17:59:02	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 15?	Yes	BUY	4	10¢	$0	0xde693a…
05-15 17:59:02	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 15?	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x93fb28…
05-15 17:57:18	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 15?	Yes	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0x437793…
05-15 15:19:36	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 15?	Yes	BUY	39	1¢	$0	0x839a61…
05-15 15:18:23	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 15?	Yes	BUY	9	1¢	$0	0xaf1732…
05-15 15:11:33	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 15?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x76ae7e…
05-15 15:11:05	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 15?	Yes	BUY	7	5¢	$0	0x9b5b93…
05-15 15:11:05	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 15?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0x0afa1d…
05-15 15:10:23	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 15?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0xc84dd6…
05-15 15:10:23	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 15?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x2b1d65…
05-15 15:10:20	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 15?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x9a688a…
05-15 15:10:20	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 15?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x11efda…
05-15 15:09:04	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 15?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0xe6750d…
05-15 15:09:04	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 15?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x6e22ba…
05-15 14:54:28	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 15?	Yes	BUY	2	5¢	$0	0x3df6d9…
05-15 14:43:31	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 15?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x08e5e1…
05-15 14:34:57	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 15?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x19845e…
05-15 08:24:58	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 15?	Yes	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0x7a6c12…
05-15 08:04:54	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 15?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xb541a4…
05-15 07:54:26	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 15?	Yes	SELL	3	44¢	$1	0x8bd4e5…
05-15 07:11:25	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 15?	Yes	SELL	10	11¢	$1	0x6e7158…
05-15 03:06:28	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 15?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xe8ed97…
05-15 02:46:40	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 15?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xe51cde…
05-15 02:27:30	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 15?	Yes	SELL	10	11¢	$1	0x3dcd99…
05-15 01:52:30	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 15?	Yes	BUY	0	10¢	$0	0xe9bba6…
05-15 01:37:13	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 15?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x6b4bcc…
05-14 19:57:40	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 14?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xd4a892…
05-14 19:57:24	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 14?	Yes	SELL	4	88¢	$4	0x95253f…
05-14 19:48:06	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 14?	Yes	SELL	5	36¢	$2	0x071b5b…
05-14 19:02:48	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 14?	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xcc880a…
05-14 18:53:03	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 14?	Yes	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x9e8832…
05-14 18:51:24	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 14?	Yes	SELL	15	8¢	$1	0x7b342b…
05-14 18:41:39	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 14?	Yes	SELL	53	0¢	$0	0x4d8898…
05-14 16:06:01	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 14?	Yes	BUY	3	8¢	$0	0x1e76a4…
05-14 15:59:19	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 14?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0xbc687d…
05-14 15:56:41	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 14?	Yes	BUY	3	8¢	$0	0x953c89…
05-14 15:56:29	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 14?	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x6f5abc…
05-14 15:56:29	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 14?	Yes	BUY	3	8¢	$0	0x396537…
05-14 15:30:54	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 14?	Yes	SELL	7	0¢	$0	0x750c3e…
05-14 15:03:27	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 14?	No	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x86ee03…
05-14 14:52:26	Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 15?	Yes	SELL	4	36¢	$1	0xff9e24…
05-14 14:50:46	Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 14?	Yes	SELL	6	94¢	$5	0xf14052…
05-14 14:35:22	Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 14?	Yes	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xe9bf64…
05-14 14:24:35	Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 14?	Yes	SELL	4	17¢	$1	0x627c1f…
05-14 04:25:47	Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 15?	Yes	SELL	6	18¢	$1	0x332c80…
05-14 04:19:33	Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 15?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x4c41fe…
05-14 00:39:55	Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 15?	Yes	BUY	4	31¢	$1	0xc6b879…
05-13 22:53:57	Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	44	5¢	$2	0xf448e6…
05-13 22:38:37	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 14?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x357628…
05-13 22:38:37	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 14?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x310d35…
05-13 22:15:31	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 14?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0xa85af8…
05-13 22:14:31	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 14?	Yes	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0xb4ca55…
05-13 22:13:23	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 14?	Yes	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0x0ecc31…
05-13 22:05:57	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 14?	Yes	BUY	4	2¢	$0	0xa6f2e4…
05-13 22:03:42	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 14?	Yes	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0xd2aee2…
05-13 21:59:58	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 14?	Yes	BUY	4	2¢	$0	0xeebc3a…
05-13 21:57:03	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 14?	Yes	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0x701542…
05-13 21:24:46	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 14?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x384b5d…
05-13 21:24:39	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 14?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xaa734c…
05-13 21:24:39	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 14?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x4a70e2…
05-13 21:07:40	Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	44	11¢	$5	0x642bcb…
05-13 20:58:33	Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 14?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x9130a9…
05-13 20:19:07	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 14?	Yes	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0x06d1bd…
05-13 20:10:27	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 14?	Yes	BUY	6	3¢	$0	0x13b409…
05-13 20:10:23	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 14?	Yes	BUY	6	3¢	$0	0x039829…
05-13 19:01:21	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 13?	Yes	SELL	14	1¢	$0	0x8b9717…
05-13 16:13:02	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 13?	Yes	SELL	19	5¢	$1	0xd88175…
05-13 15:41:34	Will the highest temperature in New York City be 74°F or higher on May 13?	Yes	SELL	230	2¢	$5	0x5f126f…
05-13 06:01:14	Will the highest temperature in New York City be 74°F or higher on May 13?	Yes	BUY	130	1¢	$1	0xb96e60…
05-13 04:34:43	Will the highest temperature in New York City be 74°F or higher on May 13?	Yes	BUY	89	1¢	$1	0x17ad05…
05-13 04:20:40	Will the highest temperature in New York City be 74°F or higher on May 13?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x06cd0d…
05-13 04:19:39	Will the highest temperature in New York City be 74°F or higher on May 13?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x2c3359…
05-13 04:18:11	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 13?	Yes	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x3a54c6…
05-10 16:57:00	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 10?	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0xd182e3…
05-10 16:02:53	Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 10?	Yes	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x71d4ea…
05-10 15:23:43	Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 10?	Yes	SELL	4	25¢	$1	0x9ceb94…
05-10 15:23:43	Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 10?	Yes	SELL	5	25¢	$1	0x774a55…
05-10 14:26:23	Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 10?	Yes	BUY	23	86¢	$20	0x0ba63c…
05-10 14:21:57	Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 10?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x459c39…
05-10 12:21:55	Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 10?	Yes	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x70a9c6…
05-10 11:57:55	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 10?	Yes	BUY	5	31¢	$1	0xb816a7…
05-10 11:36:53	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 10?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xa7808e…
05-09 19:30:34	Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	120	1¢	$1	0xd9aef5…
05-09 17:22:19	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on May 9?	Yes	SELL	9	57¢	$5	0xb7d393…
05-09 03:28:36	Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	120	1¢	$1	0xe5dc11…
05-08 21:50:30	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 8?	Yes	SELL	2	21¢	$0	0xa1cc9b…
05-08 21:01:03	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 8?	Yes	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0xb4f6f9…
05-08 20:48:59	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 8?	Yes	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0x8feec3…
05-08 20:48:48	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 8?	Yes	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0x0bdcf0…
05-08 20:26:40	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on May 9?	Yes	BUY	9	46¢	$4	0x80bf0d…
05-08 19:57:48	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on May 8?	Yes	BUY	80	1¢	$1	0x105ed5…
05-08 19:51:24	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 72°F or higher on May 8?	Yes	SELL	136	0¢	$0	0x507f7d…
05-08 19:51:07	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 8?	Yes	SELL	70	0¢	$0	0x20336a…
05-08 18:49:15	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 8?	Yes	SELL	30	0¢	$0	0x952833…
05-08 18:48:40	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 72°F or higher on May 8?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x1c14d1…
05-08 14:55:24	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 8?	Yes	BUY	3	12¢	$0	0xc0274a…
05-08 14:55:17	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 8?	Yes	BUY	3	12¢	$0	0x4773bc…